Does the preseason matter? Two years ago – in a small study that needs to be updated – I presented evidence that what we see for rookies in the preseason tells us something about the regular season. When it comes to veterans, though, one suspects (and I have not actually looked at this) that what we have seen in last regular season tells us more than the current preseason. And certainly what we see from one game can’t tell us anything at all.
Nevertheless…
Rudy Gay – who signed a very large contract this past summer – scored 18 points last night for the Memphis Grizzlies. This fact was noted in the very first line of the game recap. A fact not noted in the recap – but clearly seen in the box score – is that Rudy Gay played 23 minutes and never grabbed a single rebound. Just for the record, Gay is 6ft. 8 in. tall. One would think at that size he could bother to get a rebound. And one might think a failure to do this would warrant a mention in the article.
Once again, one game doesn’t mean much. The past regular season means far more. Unfortunately for fans of Memphis, here is what Gay has produced in four regular seasons:
2009-10: 3.9 Wins Produced, 0.059 WP48
2008-09: 2.3 Wins Produced, 0.037 WP48
2007-08:4.2 Wins Produced, 0.068 WP48
2006-07: 0.1 Wins Produced, 0.003 WP48
In four seasons, Gay has been below average [average Wins Produced per 48 minutes is 0.100] every time. And he has only produced 10.6 wins. Yes, Gay can score. And this is why Gay was given an $82 million deal this past summer (yes, that is a maximum contract). But Gay doesn’t produce wins because he doesn’t excel at the facets of the game that lead to victories. In other words, other than scoring, he doesn’t do much.
Again, it was only one preseason game. But it doesn’t look like the pattern is changing. Gay did get his points last night. As for rebounds… well, he didn’t get a maximum deal to go after boards. And with deal in hand – at least for one night – getting one board was apparently too much trouble.
– DJ
Wages of Wins Journal 
Tom Mandel
October 8, 2010
Even more confirmation of your title comes from Rudy Gay’s TeamUSA stats. He got 6.9 rebounds per 40 minutes — more than he has ever averaged in the league and at least respectable for a 3 (above average I believe, tho not great).
In other words, if he *wants to*, Rudy Gay can rebound. In fact, I seem to remember an interview w/ him during the competition in which he said that he was doing what the coaches asked him to do: “rebound, play defense….”
Hmmm, maybe shooting has been what NBA “coaches asked him to do” for some reason? He’s only about an average shooter for an NBA 3 (15.9 pts/40 on 16.2 attempts).
Michael
October 8, 2010
So negative all the time. What about focusing on the positive?
For example Blake Griffin had 18 points on 100% shooting, 13 rebounds (five offensive) a steal, a block, an assist and zero turnovers, in 22 minutes!
That’s pretty impressive for a rookie, and exactly the kind of game your approach favours. But instead of giving props to the guy who excelled playing the wins produced way, you’d rather go for the guy who data props the ‘scorers=overrated’ paradigm!
Tyler
October 8, 2010
I love this blog and refer to it often when assessing the true value of players, but we all get it by now. Rudy Gay, Carmelo Anthony, Trevor Ariza, and Aaron Brooks suck.
fricktho
October 8, 2010
^ Rookies and 2nd year/unproven players are about the only reason I peruse preseason box scores. Blake Griffin certainly looks impressive. Terrance Williams for NJ is looking pretty good as well. John Wall for all the negative things he does (fg%, TO) also does quite a few positive things as well. I’m not sure WP does him much justice. Time will tell. Wesley Johnson has also performed admirably. Evan Turner and Favors not so much. Ricky Rubio sure looked impressive against the Lakers whopping 0-5 with 3 assists and 4 turnovers. I’m going to go out on a pretty strong limb and say Griffin leads rookies in WP and WP/48, but Wall is going to rack up an impressive highlight reel that might be tough to beat for ROY. Oh wait Rudy Gay…yeah he’s overpaid.
Shawn Ryan
October 8, 2010
-Tyler
This blog does champion underrated/under-appreciated players with fervor similar to that with which it derides overrated/overpayed players. Consider Troy Murphey, Marcus Camby, Kevin Love, Chris Paul (I would argue that he’s underrated because so many people believe he is inferior to Deron Williams), DeJuan Blair, Mike Miller, and even Dennis Rodman. Those names are mentioned quite a bit on this blog and the other network blogs. In general, there is a focus on the players that embody the biggest discrepancy between popular perception of player quality and the assessment of player quality as filtered through the WoW statistical toolset.
Italian Stallion
October 8, 2010
Rudy Gay getting a max contract = LMAO
arturogalletti
October 8, 2010
Hey, I’m paying attention to Griffin! I got him as my rookie of the year.
Ben R.
October 8, 2010
I’ve asked this before, but I’d be interested in seeing a piece on trade possibilities involving Monta Ellis. He’s a similar overpaid, overhyped, unproductive scorer, and I’d be curious to see an analysis on potential trades involving him. His situation is very close to Melo’s and he is a similar kind of player as him, Rudy Gay, Joe Johnson, etc. He’s about as good a case study as any for the gap between perception and production (often he’s not even below average like Gay, or slightly above average but overpaid like Melo, but completely useless altogether) but I feel he doesn’t get the same attention here as a lot of the others (probably because he’s on the warriors and didn’t get a max contract, only a huge one).
entityabyss
October 8, 2010
Yea, since golden state is going crazy this year, monta is probably gonna get a lot of credit. The wages of wins have gone over him though.
Ben R.
October 8, 2010
You’re right, even though they don’t cover him quite as much as the others, they still have talked about him a good deal.
What I’d like to see is some analysis on how the Warriors could improve by trading monta for some effective players, similar to the many articles on potential trades involving Melo.
Fortunately, I think monta will get traded so he won’t get to steal some of the credit for the warriors rejuvenated play.
fricktho
October 9, 2010
I’m rooting for a trade that puts WoW to the test.
dberri
October 9, 2010
fricktho.
Wages of Wins came out in 2006. I think we have had a few “tests” since then (the Iverson trade springs to mind). Of course, trades really aren’t a test.
fricktho
October 9, 2010
that’s true. i suppose there have been plenty of tests. or evidence that GM’s don’t understand what produces wins. Rudy Gay and Joe Johnson’s extensions proved as much. with Iverson I don’t think Dumars made that move for the present though. He had to have known the team was going to take a hit in the win column. His signings afterward showed that maybe he’s not as adept at judging win producers as his reputation suggested.
i suppose what i’m asking for is a lopsided WP trade where perception doesn’t meet reality, and where each team thinks they got the better of the deal, but only one team clearly wins, but the perception is that the other team won. the Iverson/Billups trade could be an example, but there was very little perception that the Pistons made out in that deal. it was lopsided in both perception and reality.
brgulker
October 9, 2010
fricktho,
This isn’t really a trade scenario, but New York and Golden State come to mind.
NY lets David Lee walk for nothing so that they can sign Amare. Golden State is projected to do very well, largely because of adding David Lee. NY is projected to remain mediocre-to-bad, largely because of letting David Lee walk and replacing him with overrated Amare.
Phillip
October 9, 2010
I was at the Warriors/Clippers games last night, and Blake Griffin looked great out there. He would have done even better if he had made some of his free throws.
Monta Ellis, I think, is a little different from other players like Carmelo, Rudy Gay, etc. A one point, he was actually very productive (specifically, post-All Star Break 07-08 season). This year, Keith Smart has talked with him about trusting his teammates more a being a better leader. He’s made up with Curry and believes they can play together. He’s also got some serious help from Curry and David Lee, players he feels confident about deferring to. As a Warriors fan, I want to keep him after this dramatic change in attitude; he’s saying and doing all the right things. His play in yesterday’s game doesn’t hurt either. Only time will tell how he actually does, but it’s possible he could return to his form from 07-08.
fricktho
October 10, 2010
@brgulker
yeah but NY also added Randolph, Azubuike, and Felton which has them predicted to win more games than last season. Amare will obviously get the credit for any gains in wins the team experiences making him appear to be better than Lee, or at least as good.
Italian Stallion
October 10, 2010
@brgulker,
I’m not going to argue Lee vs. Amare too much because I think it’s clear Lee is much better based on box score stats. The debate is mostly about defense. Amare is considered average (give or take) but some consider Lee among the worst defenders in the league. The rest think he’s a little below average or bad. It may not be an accident that Griffen went crazy against Lee the other day.
However, the Knicks didn’t let Lee walk. They got Randolph, Turiaf, and Azubuike for him.
If Randolph stays healthy and gets minutes, the combination of Amare and Randolph will probably be worth more than Lee even if you assume Lee is not a huge defensive liability . Felton is an upgrade over Duhon. The filler is an upgrade over Jeffries and others. So the Knicks should almost certainly be better this year despite the loss of Lee even without improvement from the kids (Gallo, Chandler, Douglas, Randolph etc..)
brgulker
October 10, 2010
IS,
You’re completely right. I completely forgot about the S&T … NY did add a few nice pieces there.
Do you think Amare is a better defender overall than Lee? Admittedly, I’ve watched a lot less Lee than you have, and he’s never struck me as a flat out bad defender … just not great. Amare has struck me similarly. What’s your take?
Italian Stallion
October 11, 2010
@brgulker,
Lee has played out of position so often it’s hard for me to say. Amare is at least a little longer so I think he’s be a better presence inside, but I don’t think he’s very good either.
Personally, if you put a gun to my head, I’d rather have Lee. But he’d have to be playing PF and be paired with a C that can be a real intimidator inside to make up for Lee.
Paul
October 12, 2010
I think Lee to Golden State is a pretty good ex ante test of WP48 – the only real problem being that GS also have a guy in Ellis who WP48 considers hugely overrated, so it’s not a perfect natural experiment. Still, I’ll take the under on 55 wins…
Murphy to the Nets is another interesting trade, given that WP48 credits him with nearly as many wins as they posted last season without him, and I suppose it will be interesting to see if Washington is as awful at WP48 predicts.
What we really want is a team made up entirely of guys who posted great WP48 numbers and very low ppg. Houston last season was close, but Brooks (ex ante), was there to generate shots/waste possessions, depending on your mental model. They did under-perform relative to Prof Berri’s preseason prediction, if I recall correctly.
Tyler
October 12, 2010
Shawn,
I understand your point, and I didn’t mean to imply you focus more on negatives than positives (I think that was more the point of the poster above me). It just seems to me, from casually reading the blog, that posts pointing out inefficient players seem to focus on a more limited number of players that we hear about over and over. I don’t get that sense in posts about underrated players. Maybe it’s just the focus on Anthony lately because of the trade talks, plus Gay because of FIBA, that has caused this recent discrepancy. I just found myself thinking “Ugh, another post on Gay?” (or Anthony, etc.)
All I’m saying is spread the love, or, in this case, hate.
fricktho
October 12, 2010
@paul
i’d say milwaukee fits that description. their leading scorer for the better part of the season scored 16 ppg. salmons scored 19 ppg as a buck though. delfino, bogut, illyasova, salmons, ridnour, and mbah a moute were all above average players. delfino, illyasova, ridnour, and mbah a moute aren’t guys you’d really think of as integral parts of a team, but they contributed roughly 24 wins for the bucks last season.
maggette and gooden are going to push delfino, mbah a moute, and illyasova out of some minutes. and ridnour is no longer with the team. also bogut is suffering from some elbow and wrist issues right now. be interesting to see how their season shakes out. i know a lot of people are high on them following last season.