Andres Perezchica grew up in California and was at UC Berkeley during the Warriors’ We Believe era. He then studied a master’s program in Finance in Monterrey, Mexico, where he became intrigued by the growing field of Sports Economics. He is currently living back in California. Andres previously authored a study of D-League players and last first round draft choice.
In their new book Pro Basketball Prospectus: 2010-11, Bradford Doolittle and Kevin Pelton preview every team in the NBA. When assessing Golden State Warriors’ new addition Rodney Carney, Doolittle and Pelton write that he “needs to figure out what he does well and cut out the rest.” Here is a hint as to what he is good at, and what he may need to cut out:
“Carney’s love affair with the three-point line continues unabated, though he barely cracked a 30 percent success rate from there. He is pretty effective in isolations, when he is less prone to settle for the outside shot, and also runs the floor well. Defensively, Carney’s teams have been consistently better when he’s on the floor.”
Warriors Head Coach Keith Smart already named his starting line-up, and Dorell Wright is going to start at the small forward position. But Carney will see spot minutes behind Wright or at shooting guard behind Monta Ellis. Let’s take a look at what kinds of things will keep him on the floor.
First, we turn to Alberto Alvarez’s Wins Produced to see his overall effectiveness. Carney was a below-average performer last season but has been steadily improving over his four-year career. After producing in the negative for his first two seasons in the NBA, essentially taking wins away from his team, he has seen his production rise into the positive range the last two years. In the following table, we see Carney’s production over the first four seasons of his career.
Carney has seen an improvement every season in the league, even with less playing time last season for the Philadelphia 76ers. In this table, we can also see that Carney has gone from a bad investment to somewhat of a bargain. His rookie contract expired after the 2008-09 season, in which he made $1.656 million. He then signed for the veteran’s minimum of $855,000. Because of this pay cut and his increased improvement, Carney more than doubled his Wins Produced per Million dollars earned from his third to fourth season. The Warriors hope he can continue his improvement and develop into an above-average performer for them this season, at a discounted rate.
So how has Carney been able to make this improvement, and what does he need to focus on to keep it up? For answers, we look at the numbers in Doolittle and Pelton’s comments on the Warriors. Below are some of the statistics used in their evaluation of Rodney Carney.
As the table shows, Carney’s Usage rate has decreased over the last three seasons. (Basketballprospectus.com defines Usage rate as FGA + (.44*FTA) + TO.) A decrease in Turnovers is one reason why his Usage rate was lower and his efficiency higher last season. Another reason for this change is his shot selection. The percentage of Carney’s shots that came from the free throw line is represented in Table 2 by the statistic FTA%. You can see that he got to the free throw line more last season than in any other. In addition, he has improved his free throw shooting percentage in every season, making his ability to get to the line more effective. This is a major reason Carney has seen his production rise over his career, and something that will earn him minutes in the Warriors’ rotation.
We can also see improvements in Carney’s rebounding and passing of the ball. Last year he posted his highest ratings in both Rebound and Assist Percentage (Here, Rebound Percentage is the percent of total rebounds available that Carney grabs; Assist Percentage is the percent of his team’s assists that he gives out.). Carney is adding possessions to his teams by rebounding at a higher rate and being more efficient when making decisions with the ball. This is especially important on a team with small guards in Ellis and Stephen Curry. His ability to help rebound and start the fast break will allow the Warriors to play at a fast pace.
The best way for Carney to get extended minutes off the bench will be by playing good defense. He has shown that he can defend perimeter players, taking on the responsibility of defending the opponent’s best perimeter player in the past. His teams have been better defensively with him on the floor, so this is something Coach Smart will count on when he puts Carney on the floor.
– Andres Perezchica
Wages of Wins Journal 
notherbert
October 12, 2010
very enjoyable piece, thankyou Andres Perezchica. a small storyline in the NBA but well portrayed here and will be intriguing to see how his season goes.
Cheech Cohen
October 12, 2010
Rodney Carney. We’re talking about Rodney Carney here. WTF?
evanz
October 12, 2010
I charted the shot tendencies and %’s of the current Warriors roster recently, and found that there is actually one spot on the floor that Carney shoots better than everyone else on the team. He hits 50% from 10-15 ft. Yes, that is better than Curry (38.9%) and just barely better than David Lee (49.6%). Problem is Carney only takes that shot on 3.9% of his FGA.
Italian Stallion
October 12, 2010
I guess I don’t watch much PHI basketball because I never even heard of Rodney Carney. The only Carney I can even think of is Art Carney (Luu! Luu!) :)
However, I enjoyed the analysis a lot and think this post would be a good model for analyzing any player.
reversemeaning
October 12, 2010
Doolittle and Pelton write that he “needs to figure out what he does well and cut out the rest.”
But, as you show, he mainly needs to cut back on one thing. That is pretty much opposite of figure out what he does well and cut out the rest.
The point is he is not a specialist. He and his previous GMs and coaches thought he’d become a 3 point specialist. But he hasn’t. He needs to be an all around basketball player.
reversemeaning
October 12, 2010
Carney is a good defender and he should continue to focus on that but defensive Adjusted +/- says he gives away all his positive impact on defense by being below average on offense. He should work to be closer to average on offense in any and every way possible. If he can hit 35% from 3 pt again then he should take that shot some.
reversemeaning
October 12, 2010
Maybe shooting a little less would help but whether he should do that depends on what lineups he plays with and if the plays the coach calls are good or not.
not the last player chosen
October 13, 2010
good analysis — that’s something the warriors should use and maybe would pay a scout for, it he wrote it up.
Italian Stallion
October 13, 2010
OK, I’m getting worried.
I love Anthony Randolph, but he’s obviously still extremely raw. It’s looking to me like the Knicks season is pegged to a kid that’s not ready for prime time yet and at least in the short term GS got much the best of the Lee trade.
We’ll have to revisit that trade later this year and definitely in another year or two, but the Knicks playoff chances are dimmer than I thought.
Bill Gish
October 14, 2010
It’s my understanding that the Knicks alternative to the Golden State trade for Lee was to just watch him walk.
Nobody in the Knick’s front office suffered under the delusion that they were getting the best of the trade.
Italian Stallion
October 14, 2010
I think a LOT of people, including the coaching staff in NY, think Randolph has the potential to become a much better player Lee before it’s over. He’s already a similar rebounder and at age 19-20 had a much better all around offensive game and ability to defend/block shots than Lee had until last year.
What he doesn’t have is a sense of good shots vs. bad shots, how to play within his current skills instead of his outrageously amazing athletic gifts, etc… That results in a lot f bad shots and turnovers that Lee would never take/make. If he was 25, I’d say forget it. But he’s 21, missed virtually the entire season last year, and didn’t play all that much the year before that. The problem for the Knicks is that need him to mature and learn now, not at age 24-25.