My latest at the Huffington Post focuses on the Calvin Johnson myth. People believe (at least fans of the Lions believe) that Johnson – or Megatron – is an elite wide receiver. The numbers, though, suggest otherwise (at least, the numbers so far in Megatron’s career suggest otherwise).
Beyond this story, I thought I would also post the Wins Produced numbers for NFL quarterbacks. The season is a little bit past the quarter pole, and at this point the most productive quarterback – according to Wins Produced per 100 plays (a model explained in The Wages of Wins and Stumbling on Wins) is Philip Rivers. Tom Brady is the leader in QB Rating, but he only ranks 7th in WP100.
As has been noted in the past (and see the following list of posts for the discussion on this topic), quarterbacks in the NFL are inconsistent.
Consistent Inconsistency in Football
Football Outsiders and QB Score
The Value of Player Statistics in the NFL
So if you don’t like how your quarterback has performed so far, wait a few games and maybe that will change.
– DJ
Wages of Wins Journal 
tywill33
October 14, 2010
Aaron Rodgers is proving your thesis regarding inconsistency. Whereas his decision making was sound last season, he’s making some odd choices with the ball this season. I have a theory that last season he was consciously trading sacks for interceptions whereas this season he is doing the opposite. His final interception on Sunday stands as Exhibit A. What a reckless pass that was. I don’t think he even saw Jennings when he released the ball. Very Favresque.
Would you agree that the Lions are much improved, despite their record? Pro-Football-Reference’s Simple Rating System has them ranked fouth in the NFC.
dberri
October 14, 2010
Yes, the Lions are much improved. Of course, when you only win 4 out of 45 contests, you can still be very bad and yet be much improved.
nerdnumbers
October 14, 2010
DJ,
Let me string together some logic trains for you: 1) The Quarterback is most important position. 2) You say Orton is the third best quarter back in the league. ergo the Broncos are the third best team in the league!
I don’t know how you follow football but the “Elway shadow here” is nuts. After Orton’s really good last season we still have people talking about he we need a QB (look at the offseason Quinn AND Tebow??) The radio still has the like “If Orton can keep this up. . . ” kind of attitude. It’s possible the team has other positions and we haven’t been drafting for them (running game, what’s that?). Of course I don’t know football that well so I’ll just settle into “Orton is no Elway and doesn’t have that killer instinct! We need a quarterback with it if we want to win.”
Also man, who would have predicted Vick?
some dude
October 14, 2010
Romo has produced more wins than the team?
I personally think McNabb has been quietly mediocre so far. His defense, Houston not withstanding, seems to be carrying them.
Of course, with only 5 games (some teams 4) having been played, I bet the standard deviation is pretty high.
some dude
October 14, 2010
Sorry for another post and my ignorance and I haven’t seen this metric for football before, but does this take into account the quality of pass defense played against?
Because if not, I’d be more impressed with a Qb that has 1.5 WP against the Packers and Steelers in their schedule than a QB with 1.2WP against the texans and lions.
Evan
October 14, 2010
i’ve been trying to work up a witty comment about usage and quarterback wins produced but it just isn’t working.