And then there was one. Only one team has failed to lose a game in 2010-11, and that team is somewhat surprising.
Last year the New Orleans Hornets only won 37 games. Since the 2009-10 season has ended the Hornets have added eight new players. In other words, only five players from last year’s team are still in New Orleans. Nevertheless, one would not think that players like Trevor Ariza, Marco Belinelli, Willie Green, Jason Smith, and Jerryd Bayless would be enough to transform a team that missed the playoffs in 2010 into one of the top teams in the league.
And one would be right to think this. Yes, the Hornets appear to be a better team in 2010-11. The team’s efficiency differential (offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency) of 8.4 is clearly better than the -2.6 mark seen last year. But this improvement is really not about the players added.
To see this, let’s move from efficiency differential to Wins Produced. The following table reports the productivity of the Hornets after seven games (these are “hand-crafted” WP numbers). It also reports what we would expect if the players the Hornets are employing this year offered the same level of per-minute production seen in 2009-10.
If we focus on the team’s primary additions, we see that Ariza, Smith, Belinelli, Green, and Bayless are projected to produce 7.1 wins across an 82 game season. These same five players would be projected to 4.0 wins had their performance not changed from 2009-10. In sum, it doesn’t look like the team’s newest faces are responsible for the team’s improvement.
To see who is responsible we need to look at the first two names listed. Chris Paul and Emeka Okafor are currently on pace to produce 46.3 wins. Had these players maintained what we saw last year they would only be on pace to produce 26.3 wins. So, most of this team’s improvement can be linked to the play of the team’s two best players.
Now that we can see who is responsible for this team’s fast start we can now ask the big question: Should we expect Paul and Okafor to keep producing at this level?
Let’s answer that question by first noting why Okafor and Paul are so productive. Relative to last season, Okafor is offering – on a per-minute basis – fewer rebounds, steals, and assists. He is blocking more shots, but the key to his productivity leap is an adjusted field goal percentage of 73%. One would suspect that this level of efficiency can’t continue.
A similar story might be told about Chris Paul. Yes, Paul may finish as the most productive player in the game in 2010-11. But he can hold that position without maintaining his current leap (from — as noted below — his career best performance) in productivity. More specifically, Paul’s productivity leap is tied to an increase in rebounds and a decline in turnovers. In fact, in 239 minutes, Paul has only turned the ball over 12 times.
Yes, that could continue. And Okafor could keep hitting 73% of his shots. But if we look at each player’s career, it seems unlikely.
The following table reports what each player’s career production. As one can see, neither player has ever been this productive.
Okafor’s best season was the 2006-07 campaign where he posted a 0.563 ADJ P48. If he offered this mark in 2010-11 he would currently be on pace to produce 11.3 wins, or about 3.6 fewer wins than we see reported above. Chris Paul’s best season was in 2008-09 (and yes, he was amazing that season). If he was producing at the level observed that season he would be on pace to produce 26.5 wins, or about 4.9 fewer than what we are currently observing. So if Okafor and Paul revert to their previous career highs, the Hornets would be on pace to win 53 games this season. And this mark is a shade below what the Hornets did in 2007-08 (the best team in Hornets’ history).
So are the Hornets contenders for the title? At the moment the team is Paul, Okafor, and not much else (of the other players, only David West has played more than 100 minutes and posted an above average WP48 mark). And the lofty efficiency differential this team has posted so far is primarily due to Paul and Okafor posting numbers beyond what we have seen at any point in the past.
So if you think Okafor can continue to hit 70% of his shots and Paul can keep his turnovers per game below 2.0, then it is possible to believe the Hornets are title contenders. If these numbers don’t continue, though, it seems likely the Hornets will come back to the pack of Western Conference playoff teams.
– DJ
Wages of Wins Journal 
brgulker
November 12, 2010
Chris Paul is amazing.
Leroy Smith
November 12, 2010
DB, can you please address the big question on eveyone’s mind: What’s up with the Heat?
I mean, if Coaching and diminishing returns have little impact on the Game of basketball, then what’s up?
I think at least the first game of the season, when Spolstra used 11 different players in the first quarter, speaks to coaching having a bigger impact than WP seems to predict.
Don’t just blame it on Bosh for having THS (tiny heart syndrome).
dberri
November 12, 2010
Leroy,
The Heat are not on everyone’s mind. For example, I was thinking about the Hornets this morning :)
But here is a quick thought… they have only played nine games. And they still have a very high efficiency differential. Unfortunately, that hasn’t resulted in the number of wins such a differential suggests. That should change (and if it doesn’t, then we have a story). In the meantime, I am sure people will be thrilled to discuss the sample we have to death.
alyosha8
November 12, 2010
I know this answer doesn’t go down well here — but the Hornets also have a new coach.
fricktho
November 12, 2010
Peja is the key, and it has nothing to do with his production.
Tommy_Grand
November 12, 2010
The hornets will regress from perfect? No way. I thought they’d go undefeated. Seriously though, 53 wins seems a reasonable estime. Playoffs, surely.
Rick
November 12, 2010
What saddens me is that the mainstream sports outlets have access to this information and still generate ratings by invoking the insipid debate:
Who’s Better: Chris Paul or Deron Williams!?!?!?!?!?!
I just pray for my beloved Knicks that the Hornets think they can replicate those wins by trading for Ray Felton, Wil Chandler, and the decomposing corpse of Eddy Curry.
marparker
November 12, 2010
The Heats losses
Boston(2)-maybe they have the Heat’s number even if they are a 70 win team
@hot start New Orleans
vs. Utah who just won three straight games when they were being crushed at some point in each one.
I suspect every team in the league would be 5-4 at this point with that schedule.
Out of their first 8 games they have an expected win total of 7 according to automated wins produced. That figure is 2nd in the league behind LAL. That is against what I think has got to be the toughest schedule in the league so far.
brgulker
November 12, 2010
@ Leroy Smith
I don’t mean to sound trivial or dismissive here, but I think the answer is fairly straightforward: Chris Bosh and LeBron James haven’t played well yet relative to career norms. Look no farther than their first 3 games and the amount of TO’s LBJ had. That won’t keep happening. Those guys will figure out how to play well together, and when they do, they’ll be very, very hard to beat.
No doubt Rondo abused them — they clearly have issues at defending the point and defending the post — but the media’s overreacting (surprise, surprise). They’ve played nine games. In their first 3, none of the big 3 played like themselves. There’s no doubt they have to work things out, and it’s going to take a little time to do so.
That’s a long way of saying I think it’s way too early to think about diminishing returns and/or coaching. If they’re still struggling 20 games from now, then that would be an interesting conversation to have.
nerdnumbers
November 12, 2010
BGulker,
I would say coaching has a great effect. Choosing who to play (cough Karl) can greatly influence the game. The thing is a coach isn’t going to make Bargnani into a star (most won’t even the Zen master would probably just ship him). I do think in Miami they may be have some gelling issues but yeah they hit Boston + Utah + New Orleans with one or more stars playing insane. 72 wins more than likely requires some luck as well as skill. I mean the Bulls still lost 10 games, which means they weren’t infallible.
brgulker
November 12, 2010
I would agree that coaches matter. I just don’t think we know enough yet to say it matters all that much in Miami. It might. More time will tell.
Philip
November 12, 2010
On the flip side, Ariza continues to produce at an average rate, while two seasons ago he was well above average. Anyone been watching the Hornets? What’s the deal?
A return to form for him could help offset the inevitable regression and/or missed time due to injuries from Okafor and Paul.
Evan
November 12, 2010
Kevin Love finally got some playing time in Minnesota…worked out pretty well.
SA
November 12, 2010
Evan’s right. Here’s a pretty good stat…Tonight’s rebounding totals (in separate games): Washington Wizards – 30 rebounds; Kevin Love – 31 rebounds.
fricktho
November 13, 2010
rebounds are predicated on missed shots. but Love’s 31 rebounds deserve every bit of praise. Most impressive performance I’ve witnessed since Kobe went for 81. Not kidding.
some dude
November 13, 2010
^^^ think that’s a bit much there, but it was impressive. Some of them were tips of his own misses, and NYK looked just awful on the boards.
30-30. not often you see that!
Michael
November 13, 2010
Free Kevin Love!
dm
November 13, 2010
Man can’t wait to see tomorrow’s articles and all their creative uses for his last name. I better get this one in before Fran Blinberry snags it –
Kevin Love makes LOVE to the basketball grabing 31 rebounds
If this humble writer met that dream boat Kevin LOVE I would some how convince him I was an expert basketball master that could greatly improve his game as long as he follows my eccentric rules.
Rule #1 – All training must be done totally in the buff. It’s how the ancient Romans ment the game to be played.
Rule # 2 – To harmonize their chi coach and player must shower at the same time at the training location.
Rule # 3 – Training will take place at my modest studio apartment.
Rule # 4 – His uncle and the rest of the Beach Boys must play their slowest most sensual tracks live in my apartment for the duration of the training session.
Once he shows up in full rule 1 at rule 3 i’ll do my best to help the beach boys get hooked up so we can get rule 4 rolling.
We’ll start by working on his post offence followed by his post defence followed by his post offence then a little something for his free throws, followed by box outs followed by a lot of post offence.
Unfortunately I don’t have any showers so some how we’ll have to fit me and his 6’10 frame in the tub together.
Ummm…….Love added 31 points as well.
bagsflyfree
November 13, 2010
lol a 20 year old nba record where 70% of players are black is broken by a white player, that is very satisfying. all props to kevin love.
ilikeflowers
November 13, 2010
fricktho, some dude,
No reason to add ‘buts’:
Rebounds are predicated on missed shots and made shots are predicated on possession.
We don’t know that Love had an unusual number of tipped boards, not that tipped boards are necessarily gimmes.
If you give up 81 points on 46 shots you’re playing awful defense.
If we knew the average statline for PF and SG we could translate both lines into points for a direct comparison.
fricktho
November 13, 2010
flowers –
for general comparison, and because i’m not taking the time to sort out every PG or SF from each list here are averages for G and F/C that play over 25 mpg this season –
G: 15.49 ppg
F/C: 6.86 rpg
Kobe’s 81 would be 5.2 times what the average guard scores per game
Love’s 31 would be 4.5 times what the average forward/center rebounds per game
if that’s what you were going for i have no idea. both impressive nonetheless.
Gil Meriken
November 13, 2010
Hmmm… bagsflyfree (11/23/10 9:23AM) , interesting take on Kevin Love’s accomplishment …
fricktho
November 13, 2010
later this season when Rondo busts out a 30 assist game or Wall a quadruple double it’ll be fun to debate what’s the most impressive.
Leroy Smith
November 13, 2010
bagsflyfree,
I’m not sure why that is so satisfying to you, but to each his own…I just can’t wait when it’s not worth noting (I thought in sports in general we were there already)
Italian Stallion
November 13, 2010
Love’s rebounds came partially because the Knicks had Wilson Chandler covering him for awhile (a SF) and a bunch a few tip backs on his own misses. The rest was the Knicks being inept overall and his own talent.
For anyone that thinks coaching doesn’t matter, I defy you to watch a few Knicks games and still think that.
Wilson Chandler is only a 30% 3 point shooter, but he takes more of them than any other player on the team even though the Knicks have a few players that are historically pretty good 3 point shooters.
This has been an issue with Chandler on and off for several years, but last year When Wilson finally reduced his 3P attempts after a very slow start, his TS% soared to above average levels for the remainder of the season. So many Knicks fan assumed that coach D’Antoni had finally throw in the towel and put the reigns on him and/or he had finally figured it all out.
Now we are back to the stupidity and the only person on earth that still thinks this is a good idea is coach D’Antoni. He has given him the green light to shoot outside 15 feet and 3 pointers even though we have a multi year record that proves conclusively that this is retarded behavior.
I could go on, but it would take days.
reservoirgod
November 13, 2010
Another creepy comment from bagsflyfree…
Fellas
November 13, 2010
“Anyway, when I’m grabbing a lot of rebounds, I’m definitely aware of it, but mostly what I’m thinking to myself is, “Keep going to the glass, keep going to the glass.” Because one thing you can always do is rebound. If you aren’t getting your shots, or you’re not working your way into the offense, you can always go to the glass. We have some pretty good shooters on this team but even the best players only shoot 50 percent, so you have to go for every rebound.
For me, rebounding is all a mindset. My dad told me back in the day that there is no such thing as a selfish rebound because it’s a team stat. If you have to fight one of your own teammates for a rebound, do it—as long as you get it. Also, I studied the greats. Dennis Rodman had it figured out: he knew that most shots are going to come to the other side of the rim. So that’s how I position myself. And Bill Russell always used to say that 80 percent of rebounds are below the rim. I’m not the kind of guy who’s going to jump and touch the top of the square every time. I use my body for positioning, and I work relentlessly underneath the rim. You don’t have to be the most athletic guy in the world to get a bunch of rebounds, so I just try and take what my dad said to heart, what Rodman said to heart, and most importantly what Bill Russell said to heart. He’s got 11 championship rings so I think he knows what he’s talking about. ”
Kevin Love. (courtesy of Sekou Smith)
jbrett
November 13, 2010
Two possibilities:
1. This blog (in the form of Dr. Berri) is pretty damn good at prophecy;
2. Instead of predicting the future, this blog created the future with its hue and cry for Mr. Love’s playing time.
Should we be looking for a thank-you note from Rambis?
todd2
November 13, 2010
The Heat is carrying 9 players on the wrong side of 28 years old. Pat Riley has a history of being averse to youth. Gotta have young legs to fill lanes on the break and defend.
Gil Meriken
November 14, 2010
jbrett – this blog also suggested that “LeBron and the Cavaliers should be the favorites in 2010” (11/5/2009) and that the Lakers would (correctly) win the title in 2009, but that it would driven (incorrectly) by the play of Andrew Bynum (6/19/2008).
But, the Prof did win the Stat Geek Showdown this past season.
Now, I don’t expect anyone to be Nostradamus, but I think any claims of being prophetic should be tempered with both examples where the implications and/or conclusions generated and exhibited on these pages were “right” and when they were “wrong” (even that can be a subjective determination, I realize).
I’m sure it’s people like me that make it unappealing to put any solid predictions on record (notice that “The Cavs should be the favorites” can’t be proven to be “wrong” – they may been the favorites, but they still lost).
I know personally that I try not to make any claims of future-predicting accuracy, because I’ve been wrong just about as much as I’ve been right. But I do try to keep track of people’s prognostications as much as I can.
NOEngineer
November 14, 2010
The main reasons for the Hornets’ better WP numbers are better defense plus emphasis on defensive rebounding. More opponent misses and better attention to rebounding technique allow everybody to grab more rebounds. Also, better shot selection has improved the Hornets’ overall efficiency on that end. Also, no Darius Songaila playing the center position.
fricktho
November 14, 2010
Predictions are difficult, but they are fun. I’d call WP more of an explainer than a predictor anyway. Like the chemistry issue that I’ve seen brought up quite a bit – you can’t predict chemistry but you can explain it because it shows up in the box score if it exists. And that depends how you define chemistry. Take the Heat and James Jones for example, he’s benefiting because he’s getting open shots because his teammates are drawing all the attention, but is that chemistry? It’s a product of playing with good players. Variations in WP aren’t all that predictable, but after the fact they are explainable. Just my take on it. Also Chris Paul is playing completely healthy for the first time in a while, and he’s just really really good.
EvanZ
November 14, 2010
The Hornets are for real and they’re spectacular.
jbrett
November 14, 2010
Gil,
I listed the first possibility for amusement purposes only; nonetheless, your points are valid. I’m more interested in knowing if this might be a genuine reaction, by an NBA decision-maker, to a suggested course of action derived from Wins Produced. Certainly Coach Rambis has nothing to lose by trying anything and everything–and playing Love more wouldn’t exactly be flying in the face of conventional wisdom, either–but it feels to me like a public acknowledgement would be quite the milestone.
JaeAmazin
November 15, 2010
8-0 Seems Pretty foreal To Me..But I’m Biased..Watch what We do Dallas tonight Though!!
Adam C. Morrison
November 20, 2010
@JaeAmazin,
What did they do?