The amazing Landry Fields is the subject of a Wall Street Journal article by David Biderman. For those who have not been paying attention, Fields was the 39th player chosen in the 2010 draft. Despite being drafted in the second round, Fields has started every game for the Knicks this season. He has also been the most productive player on the Knicks this season (by a fairly wide margin). Furthermore, he has been the most productive rookie (by a very wide margin).
As Biderman notes, Fields is not a productive scorer. As the following table indicates (above average numbers in red), though, Fields may be considered a classic Wages of Wins player.
The Wins Produced metric (detailed in both The Wages of Wins and Stumbling on Wins) argues that wins in the NBA are determined by shooting efficiency (the ability to put the ball in the hoop) and the ability to gain and keep possession of the ball (i.e. rebounds and turnovers). As I noted in my sports economics class this week, this observation about wins in the NBA should be fairly obvious. But because player evaluation in the NBA is dominated by scoring totals, it seems hard for many fans to accept the notion that a player like Fields – who has below average scoring totals – is producing wins in very large quantities.
The above table, though, should illustrate how good Fields has been. Relative to an average shooting guard, Fields has been amazing with respect to shooting efficiency and Net Possession (rebounds + steals – turnovers). Consequently, we should not be surprised that Fields is on pace to produce more than 16 wins this season.
What may be surprising is that Fields’ projected productivity eclipses the combined first year production of all players selected with the 39th pick in the draft since 1977 (as Biderman notes, these players combined to produce 4.0 wins since 1977). Furthermore – as the following table notes (which reports the most productive rookie in each draft class in the season following the draft where the players were selected)– Fields projected Wins Produced is only eclipsed by seven rookies since 1977.
Of course the big question is whether Fields can continue to produce at this rate. Again, Fields has only played 12 games, and that is a very small sample. Then again, Arturo Galletti has argued that small samples in the NBA do tell us something. So maybe Fields is for real. And if that is the case, the Knicks might have found the productive star they sought in the 2010 free agent market in the second round of the NBA draft.
– DJ
Wages of Wins Journal 
jbrett
November 18, 2010
No Larry Bird? I was sure he was >WP.300 his first year. Would have thought Cedric Maxwell, ’77, might have sneaked in, as well.
Italian Stallion
November 18, 2010
The sample for Landry Fields is actually a tad larger than it looks because he was extremely impressive in summer league also. I realize that summer league is not the same and NBA play, but had he been unimpressive during the summer, I’d be more apt to think this was just a lucky string of games.
I think at this point at worst we are debating how good he is and not whether the Knicks found a rare gem in the 2nd round.
If the Knicks would have kept Lee instead of signing Amare, added Felton, added Fields, and used the extra cap space on other role players they might be quite good this year and they would still have Eddy’s contract to work with.
Lior
November 18, 2010
Might be more meaningful to compare him to all rookies, rather than only the top rookie of every year. As noted here, Bird produced 18.8 wins in his rookie season, while Cedric Maxwell produced 7.9 wins in his. Both had WP48 over 0.300.
dberri
November 18, 2010
Bird produced 19.1 wins. But he finished behind Magic in 79-8o (but ahead of Fields, so I guess that makes it eight players ahead of Landry Fields). David Robinson (who produced 24.7 wins in his rookie year) would also be ahead, but he didn’t play in the year after his draft (so he is not listed). As for Cedric Maxwell… a very high WP48. But his minutes were limited so he only produced 8.2 wins.
dberri
November 18, 2010
Lior and were posting at the same time. Not sure I agree that it is “more meaningful” one way or the other. Either way, Landry Fields is pretty amazing.
Andrew
November 18, 2010
Dec. 15 – Landry Fields traded for Carmelo Anthony
reservoirgod
November 19, 2010
Fields is going to wreck my WoW Network Smackdown prediction for the Knicks, especially if Murphy doesn’t get healthy & productive for the Nets.
Leroy Smith
November 19, 2010
reservoirgod,
Hey, Okafor is wrecking my predictions for the west with his young-Tim Duncan-like production in the early going.
Did any of you catch Kenny Smith spout that nonsense about how Amare’s numbers are more impactful than David Lee’s and therefore he is better. I don’t understand how dumb these people are who work on TV. I mean, I can’t imagine that they are any dumber than I am, but I would never say something that stupid.
fricktho
November 19, 2010
Landry Fields is amazing. He’s the anti-D’antoni player. He’s patient and only takes high percentage shots. He’s a great rebounder from the SG position. I’m impressed so far. And also the Knicks should be a tad worried that a rookie drafted 39th in the draft happens to be their most productive player. A lot of people picked the Knicks for the playoffs, but I don’t think anyone thought that Landry Fields would be the reason. They aren’t anywhere on pace to make the playoffs though, and that should be a little concerning given that Landry Fields wasn’t part of the equation to begin with.
Gallinari somehow leads the team in win shares and Amare in PER. Funny how three different metrics say three different players are the Knicks best player. Yet they sit at 4-8 with a negative differential. What is the deal with Anthony Randolph not getting playing time?
Italian Stallion
November 19, 2010
>>Dec. 15 – Landry Fields traded for Carmelo Anthony<<
Andrew,
You are lucky I don't have heart problems or you might be responsible for my death.
Chris
November 19, 2010
I’m a big fan of WoW and it’s pretty clear that Landry is a solid player. I also know his sample size is limited but even if he maintains the same averages there’s no way he should be spoken in the same breath as Magic, Duncan, Shaq, or Jordan. I think two factors are in play that boost his rebounding numbers:
-The Knicks play at one of the fastest paces in the NBA
-The Knicks don’t have any solid rebounding big guys.
For example, put him on the Lakers or the Celtics and he’s not going to average 6.7 rebounds a game. Having said all of that, he’s still a great story and if he can develop 3 point range, he should be a solid NBA player for years to come.
Italian Stallion
November 19, 2010
fricktho,
>What is the deal with Anthony Randolph not getting playing time?<
He lost a week or so because of an ankle sprain and hasn't looked good in limited minutes on offense. He also occasionally makes some really boneheaded plays.
I think he's being used improperly. He's more of a slasher, offensive rebounder, backdoor play, open court scorer but D'Antoni has him on the perimeter shooting jumpers (his weakness).
He has been very productive on the boards and blocking shots per 36 minutes.
IMO, one of the reasons the Knicks have been disappointing is that they are using Mozgov at C . He has been very unproductive. A lot of the rest of the time they are using Amare at C (where he is below average) with Wilson Chandler at PF (where he is below average) instead of using these players where it makes sense.
IMO Turiaf should be the C for now and Randolph should play some backup C and backup PF. I can't see how he could be worse than Mozgov and he'll be more productive at PF than Chandler who is really a versatile SF.
Mikechike
November 19, 2010
How bout the Knicks take a shot with Brian Zoubek? The Nets waived him in part because of back spasms, but his back would have to be spazzing pretty bad before he’s worse than Mozgov, no? I want to see the greatest rookie duo ever. Let’s make it happen.
Leroy Smith
November 19, 2010
fricthko, PER is not an advanced state at all. mostly, it measures who takes the most on the team. If my mother took the most shots for the Knicks, she would lead them in per by just making 40% of them.
arturogalletti
November 19, 2010
LS,
Less if she took more 3’s :-)
a person
November 19, 2010
Watch these knick fans mercilessly boo Landry Fields:
(skip to 1:30)
a person
November 19, 2010
Also, I’ll riff on Andrew’s post:
Dec. 15 2010: New York Knicks trade Landry Fields and Eddy Curry to Denver for Carmelo Anthony.
Tommy_Grand
November 19, 2010
I think David Robinson should be ahead of Landry on that rookie list.
todd2
November 19, 2010
The Knicks are expecting Felton to distribute the ball and be a stopper on the perimeter. He was assigned to guard Derrick Rose in a recent game and they’ll burn him out if he takes those roles for the rest of the season. Signing Stoudemire looks like a massive blunder unless he’s putting butts in the seats. Did ticket sales improve after his signing? Good gracious, I don’t know what these GM’s are thinking. Sign or draft a couple of guys that can consistently draw double teams and fill out the rest of your roster with guys that can defend, cut and/or shoot.
Andrew
November 19, 2010
Honestly, I don’t think the Knicks really wanted to sign Amar’e but once it became clear they were out on LeBron, Bosh, and Wade, they had to do “something.” Perception amongst media may have been the reason for going after Amar’e.
reservoirgod
November 19, 2010
The Knicks season tix did sellout for this season.
m.cnbc.com/id/38242177/Knicks_Sell_Out_Of_Season_Tickets
dberri
November 19, 2010
According to ESPN.com, Knicks were at 98.7% of capacity last year. This year they are at 99.0% of capacity.
jbrett
November 19, 2010
That’ll teach me to read more slowly; ‘the most productive rookie–singular–in each draft class.’ But thanks anyway!
ilikeflowers
November 19, 2010
The Heat have a real intensity issue. They were up big on Charlotte and may end up losing the game. This is getting to be a familiar story. Wade isn’t producing.
Italian Stallion
November 19, 2010
Andrew,
I think signing Amare was the Knicks last desperate move to try to attract Lebron. Once the Bulls and Heat started to open cap space and compete for him, the Knicks core was considered too weak . They felt they needed another marquee player.
Last year it was reported that Lebron asked Cav’s management to try to trade for Amare, but they went with Jamison instead. So the feeling was that if the Knicks had Amare, Lebron might consider the Knicks.
Part of me thinks Knicks management thinks that Amare is better than Lee but part of me thinks they knew they were moving sideways at best but that Amare would always be a better draw from other high caliber free agents.
Gil Meriken
November 19, 2010
@resevoirgod – how often have Lebron and Wade both had excellent games in the same game (according to WP48)? Wondering if the data is supporting the anecdotal impression that if one of them has an excellent game, the other has a mediocre or subpar game.
Michael
November 20, 2010
Did anyone see the Lakers last night?
Kobe was 8 of 27 for 23 points, whilst Matt Barnes hit 24 from 7/7 FG 5/5 3PT and 5/5 FT. Plus he chipped in 7 rebounds, 6 assists with no turnovers, and 2 steals, all in just 23 minutes!
What a game!
some dude
November 20, 2010
ESPN said it was only like the 3rd time in 25 years someone put in 20-5-5 on 100% shooting. Payton and Sir Charles once did it each.
In Kobe’s defense, about 3 of those shots were buzzer beating heaves and another 3-4 he got hacked on badly with no calls (same for Pau. strange officiating).
I’m not sure what was more impressive. Barnes’ line or Milicic looking like an actual quality NBA player!?!?
Adam C. Morrison
November 20, 2010
“What is the deal with Anthony Randolph not getting playing time?”
Because he’s terrible.
I’ve never understood everyone hyping up Randolph. I think you can tell who watches the games and who doesn’t by their opinion on Randolph.
Randolph is lazy. He does not play with much effort. Earlier in the year I did not see him get into defensive stance once; he promptly picked up two fouls. That is the main reason he is constantly in foul trouble: he does not move his feet. Despite the plethora of steals and blocks he gets on a per-minute basis he simply does not have an NBA motor.
Don Nelson is a Hall of Fame coach. He wanted nothing to do with Randolph. Sure, people dismissed him as crazy, but Nelson did let a lot of uncovered D-League gems play when they produced.
Now Mike D’Antoni, another Hall of Fame-caliber coach, wants nothing to do with Randolph. He implied Randolph could not help him right now.
Surprise surprise.
Italian Stallion
November 20, 2010
Adam,
Randolph doesn’t foul or turn the ball over much more than the typical 21 year old (that missed most of 1 season with injury). It’s that when he does do something like that, it seems to often be in an incredibly stupid way that makes a bigger impression.
Randolph has all the skills you can’t teach in large quantities – amazing athleticism, very good rebounding, very good shot blocking, and a good handle and passing skills for a guy at 6′ 11″.
What he doesn’t have is all the skills that can be taught with time.
He needs to improve his mid range shot, shot selection, and decision making. That’s takes time. He’s never going to be a super high IQ player like Landry Fields, but there are a dozen things he’ll be able to do that the average NBA player will never be able to do.
IMO in 2-3 years he’ll be averaging 20 points, 10 rebounds, 2 blocks, 2-3 assists, and 2 steals per 36 without as many fouls and turnovers. It’s clear he has that in him.
He’ll just give fans a bad case of chronic heartburn between now and then.
F19ure
November 20, 2010
@ilikeflowers
Are you serious? Wade isn’t producing? If we look at his stats based off Berri’s wp48 metric, Wade has only had a total of three below-average games. Not to mention that he was sick in the Charlotte game (and was fouled hard in the second quarter). I think the flu-like symptoms, coupled with his hard fall were a big reason for his sub-par play.
If we look back prior to the fall, Wade had hit all four of his shots. You obviously don’t watch/keep up with Heat games, do you?
ilikeflowers
November 20, 2010
Calm down F19ure. He wasn’t producing in THAT game. It’s painfully obvious that he’s a tremendous producer in general which should have caused you to choose the sensible interpretation of my post rather than the absurd.
reservoirgod
November 20, 2010
@Gil Meriken:
Here’s the list of games Wade & LeBron have both had games where they produced above an estimated 0.200 WP48:
1. ORL 10/29/10 (Wade 0.306, LeBron 0.294
2. @NJN 10/31/10 (Wade 0.642, LeBron 0.413)
3. @NOH 11/5/10 (Wade 0.491, LeBron 0.309)
4. NJN 11/6/10 (Wade 0.525, LeBron 0.237)
5. UTA 11/9/10 (Wade 0.331, LeBron 0.279)
6. PHX 11/17/10 (Wade 0.514, LeBron 0.767)
So they’ve both played like stars (or better) in half the games this year.
Alvy
November 20, 2010
“Chris Bosh is proving to be a major new front in the old stats vs. new stats debate. Old stats say he started sucking when he left Toronto. New stats say he’s as good as ever.”
wtf is Henry Abbott talking about?
reservoirgod
November 20, 2010
ilikeflowers:
I’ve said in this forum before that I think the Heat have a problem being frontrunners but I’m not sure that was the problem last night. LeBron definitely took some bad shots that would fall under the “frontrunning” category, but Charlotte really stepped up their defense in the 2nd half last night. The Heat began the 3rd quarter trying to be aggressive and attack the paint but they couldn’t find any holes in the Charlotte D and had to keep kicking it out to open shooters who weren’t making shots. As for the Heat defense, I thought it was pretty good except they couldn’t cover Stephen Jackson. Chalk it up to Wade being sick or James Jones being a bad defender, I don’t know. One thing I think they could’ve done offensively was put Big Z back in the game once it became clear the game was going to devolve into a jumpshooting contest.
I’m going to put up a post about Friday & Saturday games tomorrow night on the Miami Heat Index, so we’ll see what the numbers say. I haven’t looked at them yet.
reservoirgod
November 20, 2010
As for attendance at Knicks games, the cnbc.com article said paid attendance hasn’t slipped below 97% of capacity in the last 10 years but this was the first time the Knicks sold out their season tickets since the 2001-02 campaign.
Adam C. Morrison
November 20, 2010
“IMO in 2-3 years he’ll be averaging 20 points, 10 rebounds, 2 blocks, 2-3 assists, and 2 steals per 36 without as many fouls and turnovers. It’s clear he has that in him. ”
If you’re around here in two years — if I’m around here in two years — I’ll be sure to remind you about this prediction, right or wrong. Heck, I’ll be sure to mention your name about this prediction on this forum every time Randolph’s name comes up.
And I’m going to laugh if he’s putting up those numbers while averaging 10 minutes per game. “Come on guys, he’s an All-Star! His coach just won’t play him!”
F19ure
November 20, 2010
@Alvy
Well Bosh’s career wp48 is at .178 (going by automated wins produced; don’t feel like crunching them myself, call it laziness―damn you Alvarez). He’s currently posting above his career mark, so Abbott isn’t far off (obviously, Bosh isn’t as good as he was last year).
@ilikeflowers
My mistake for not getting your point. Guess I was quick to jump the gun lol.