The LA Clippers have played 14 games this season and only won once. The team’s efficiency differential [offensive efficiency (points scored/possessions) – defensive efficiency (points surrendered/possessions)] is currently -9.9, a mark that ranks last in the NBA. And of course, one has to wonder…why are the Clippers so bad?
Well, maybe no one is really wondering. The Clippers franchise began in Buffalo in 1971. Across the next forty seasons, the Braves-Clippers have only had a winning season seven times. And in seven trips to the playoffs, this team has never made it past the conference semi-finals. So the Clippers not being good is not generally a surprise.
This year, though, was supposed to be somewhat different. At least it wasn’t supposed to be this bad. Afterall, the Clippers have assembled a roster with high-price veterans (see Chris Kaman and Baron Davis) and young – supposedly promising — lottery picks (see Blake Griffin, Eric Gordon, and Al-Farouq Aminu). Here are some of the comments from the experts at ESPN.com before the season started:
J.A. Adande: We should know better than to envision best-case scenarios for the Clippers, but wouldn’t a healthy Blake Griffin, a steady Eric Gordon and a fit Baron Davis equal playoff material?
Chad Ford: The Clippers continue to be a Bill Simmons punchline, but after watching Blake Griffin tear it up in the preseason, I’m hedging on putting the Clippers too low. If he stays healthy, Baron Davis may actually engage and if that happens, the Clips could make a surprising run at the playoffs.
Both Adande and Ford predicted the Clippers would finish second in the Pacific. And Adande predicted the Clippers would be the 8th best team in the West (and therefore, a playoff team).
Overall, the 10 NBA experts at ESPN offered an average forecast that placed the Clippers as the 12th best team in the West (ahead of the Sacramento Kings, Golden State Warriors, and Minnesota Timberwolves).
Yet, after 15% of the regular season is complete (189 of the season’s 615 games have been played), the Clippers are the worst team. And what’s surprising (at least, it was surprising to me), the Clippers have been pretty good at adding talent via the draft. To see this point, let’s move from efficiency differential to Wins Produced.
An average rookie will post a WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes] of about 0.040 (the average player posts a 0.100 mark). As the following table indicates, the four rookies playing for the Clippers this season have all at least doubled the rookie average mark. And three of the four have posted a mark beyond what we see from an average player in the league.
So the rookies the Clippers are employing are “good” (in fact, when we consider what an average rookie offers, one could argue these rookies are “amazing”). And this quartet is on pace to produce 19.9 wins. If the remainder of this team were producing at the level we observe for these rookies, this team would be on pace to win 57 games. Unfortunately, the remainder of the roster has the following characteristics:
- Eleven veteran players playing 65% of the team’s minutes
- Of these eleven, only one is above average (Craig Smith)
- Of these eleven, six are producing in the negative range
- On average, these players are posting a -0.017 WP48
- And these eleven players are on pace to produce -4.7 wins
In sum, the veterans the Clippers are employing are doing everything they can to obscure the productivity of a fairly amazing rookie class.
And leading the way are three players who have started most of the games they have played. Baron Davis, Ryan Gomes, and Chris Kaman have combined to produce -1.3 wins. To be fair, Davis and Kaman have been injured. But this trio was not above average last season when all three played at least 75 games. Consequently, if this these players were playing as well as they did last year, the Clippers would still only be on pace to win about 22 games.
So the Clippers are bad. And this is not surprising. But there is good news going forward. The Clippers have a very good collection of young players. Furthermore, the Clippers are willing to sign high-priced veterans. Now they just need to add high-priced veterans who actually produce wins.
– DJ
Wages of Wins Journal 
Italian Stallion
November 21, 2010
Aside from the injuries, the Clippers have also had an extremely difficult schedule so far.
IMO Blake Grffin is a terror. He’s going to have to score more efficiently and defend better, but last night against the Knicks he was other worldly good. It’s just a matter of time before he’s one of the best players n the league.
dberri
November 21, 2010
How can it be that hard of a schedule? Didn’t they play the Knicks last night?
Okay, had to throw that back at IS :)
Italian Stallion
November 21, 2010
LOL. Hey, the Knick are looking a lot less sucky lately, but I have to agree the Clippers did blow their big chance last night. :)
EntityAbyss
November 21, 2010
They’ve been playing better than their record. I’m nervous about the wizards. They haven’t been as bad as they were supposed to be. It’s cuz John Wall and Javale McGee been playing better than expected. I expected Wall’s steal numbers to go down and McGee scoring efficiency and rebounding to go down, but til then, they’re not the worst team.
Eliot
November 22, 2010
Can someone explain to me why so many media people and casual fans seem to love Eric Gordon? They always point to him as a reason why the Clippers will improve and often list him as a cornerstone of the franchise. However he doesn’t score that many points, at least prior to this year (Where he is just jacking up more shots), and it seems obvious that if he was as good as they make him out to be the Clippers wouldn’t be bottom-feeders.
sportsfanatic613
November 22, 2010
I’ve been looking at the youngsters on this team so I’m glad that you are writing such a piece at this particular time. Great piece!!!! Is now the optimum time to trade Kaman (before others realize that he’s going downhill in his production) and receive something productive back in return or will Kaman turn around to what he did two years ago? If now is the time to trade him, who would take him and what would the Clippers want/need in return? Is a trade to Detroit for Hamilton or Prince a possibility? Would Detroit have to throw in Greg Monroe in order receive “a big”? Right now, Detroit seems lost, but is there another team that would take Kaman for something that would help the Clippers? I don’t think that the Clippers can find anyone to take Baron Davis.
Seems as though Del Negro is making the same mistakes that George Karl makes by playing the unproductive players the majority of the minutes.
some dude
November 22, 2010
Gordon has been good at times this year. The only reason his WP numbers seem down is that his 3ball suddenly abandoned him. Shooting 19%. If he would go back to his 1st two year average, his TS% would be at a career high.
His assist rate has doubled, rebound rate increased, and is taking it to the hole. If his 3 point returns, he would be an above average Win Producer, i believe.
That said, never heard him being the “cornerstone.” Always heard Blake Griffin being that guy.
Also, as this article points out, outside of the 3 rookies that play and Gordon, the rest of the team has been trash. Especially Kaman. And their bench is god awful.
Tyler
November 22, 2010
Is one of those Sacramento Kings supposed to be Minnesota?
dberri
November 22, 2010
Thanks Tyler. I fixed it.
kevin
November 22, 2010
While Griffin looks good when he is throwing one down, I have to say he’s a terrible defender. And it isn’t just about ability either. he just doesn’t seem engaged when his team is defending. He never hustles back on defense and he’s terrible at help defense.
As long as the Clippers play bad defense, and their defense is pretty bad, they are going to have trouble winning.
nerdnumbers
November 22, 2010
DJ,
Just want to point out that none of the Win Heads in the Stat Smackdown put the Clippers higher that 14th and all of us had them winning fewer than 30 games. Still many of us like Blake Griffin, but aren’t fooled by Kaman and Davis.
Italian Stallion
November 22, 2010
I have a basketball statistics question.
Does anyone know the value of 1 point in terms of altering the outcome of a basketball game?
In other words, if I were to determine that two teams were identical and each would win 50% of the time if they played each other, if we spotted one of the teams 1 point how often would the team with the extra point win?
2 points?
3 points?
Adam C. Morrison
November 22, 2010
Al-Farouq Aminu could be quite the special talent. Wasn’t the rub on him that he couldn’t space the floor? It’s a small sample size obviously, but he’s shooting over 54 percent from beyond the arc. He is quite athletic and has a great motor and is only 20 years old; I can’t wait to see how good he’ll be a couple years down the line when he can add more strength.
Eric Bledsoe, Aminu and Griffin are a championship-level core. For now that makes the Clippers must-watch TV, at least as much-watch as a last-place team can be. The only question is how they’ll mess it up.
Italian Stallion
November 23, 2010
Clippers beat New Orleans.
sportsfanatic613
November 23, 2010
After watching last nights game and then seeing the box score, based upon the amount of minutes allocated, I’d guess that Vinne Del Negro was reading this website as all the rookies (except for Willie Warren)played more minutes and the those with negative wins produced had their minutes limited or didn’t play at all. Kaman and Davis were injured so they didn’t play and Ryan Gomes, Randy Foye and Rasual Butler had their minutes cut.
Adam C. Morrison
November 23, 2010
Vinnie Del Negro was also very aggressive in strategic substitution during dead-ball situations. I like that a lot about him, and it’s something enough coaches don’t abuse.