A few weeks ago I discussed how the New Orleans Hornets – the last team to lose a game in 2010-11 – managed to improve. Today – at the Huffington Post – I returned to this subject. Why am I returning to this story?
In the latest issue of Sports Illustrated, Ian Thomsen spends three pages on this story. And as I noted at the Huffington Post, Thomsen never appears to mention what I think is the most obvious explanation for the Hornets improvement (if you can’t guess what this is, please click on the link above for my story at the Huffington Post).
Beyond the big story (again, detailed at Huffington Post), let me also briefly note that Thomsen also fails to mention the name “Emeka Okafor”. A few weeks ago it was noted that Okafor had improved dramatically this year. That improvement, though, was based on an amazing level of shooting efficiency. After a few more games, Okafor has returned to form with respect to shooting and his overall numbers are now about the same as well.
So Okafor isn’t why the Hornets have improved. But other players mentioned in Thomsen’s article aren’t a big part of the story either. The difference between Okafor and the rest of the roster is that after Chris Paul, Okafor is the second most productive player on the roster. So one would think Okafor would warrant a mention in a 2,000 word article on the Hornets.
Essentially, it is what Thomsen failed to mention that seems to be driving this team’s success. Now I am not saying the stuff Thomsen focuses upon doesn’t matter at all. But I do think the big part of this story is missing from the Sports Illustrated version.
– DJ
Wages of Wins Journal 
winniepoo
November 28, 2010
Hi Dr Berri,
Thanks for this post it is an interesting take on the article. I note the lack of contextual reference to your statement concerning th Hornet’s efficiency differential indicating the Hornets are not really a championship contender.
“But his team – as the efficiency differential indicates – suggests the Hornets are not really title contenders.”
Earlier in the story you mentioned the Hornets efficiency differential was +5.9 but you have not provided either a reference to work suggesting +5.9 doesn’t cut if for championship contention or even quite simply a ballpark figure for the cutoff for inclusion into championship contention.
I understand the context being a regular reader of this blog but your audience at Huffington Post may not be readily familiar with your work or the use of pythagorean estimates based on efficiency. I think giving them a cutoff or ballpark figure would provide something for comparison and context.
Then they may be more willing to understand how these numbers are derived and come to Wages of Wins Journal to obtain a better understanding.
Just my thoughts thanks for the post.
Jason
dberri
November 28, 2010
Jason,
I threw in a statement in the HuffPo post clarifying what their efficiency differential means in terms of overall wins and losses. Unfortunately, there is a limit to what I can say at HuffPo. This post should have been about 800 to 1,000 words. But it went another 300 or 400 words as I tried to briefly explain Wins Produced. And this illustrates the problem with “advanced” metrics. It is really hard to explain these in a limited space.
todd2
November 28, 2010
I thought Ariza was a nice acquisition and letting Tyson Chandler go was a mistake.
Gil Meriken
November 28, 2010
The focus of the article really is Chris Paul, and what his mindset is as far as leaving or staying with the Hornets. But it is still strange from any viewpoint to omit any reference to Okafor when talking about the Hornets’ early season success. Perphaps it’s because Okafor is not a new acquisition, but at least one brief mention was warranted when the author listed other players like Ariza and Bellinelli.
Italian Stallion
November 28, 2010
DB,
Have you ever written a blog entry that discusses the relationship between point differential and expected record?
Italian Stallion
November 28, 2010
DB,
One other question.
How large of a sample is required before point differential starts to become a reasonably accurate measure of a team’s long term probable success.
Michael
November 29, 2010
I may be imagining it, but didn’t the ‘recent posts’ widget used to sit at the top of the sidebar?
winniepoo
November 29, 2010
No biggie Dr Berri and sorry for really firing straight into the question I tend to troll the net and comment late at night down here (Australia) and being tired jump into the meat of the query.
I guess it is an art to spoon feed enough to lure them in to visit the blog to understand the background.
I quite liked the more important question regarding Chris Paul’s intent considering the off-season antics we just observed.
kevin
November 29, 2010
Here’s a quote for the Thomsen article:
“The scoring drop-offs have been more than offset by a defensive upgrade, which began with an off-season trade for small forward Trevor Ariza, whose deflections in the passing lanes helped the Lakers win the 2009 championship. The once-skimpy frontcourt has been bolstered by Andersen and 7-foot Jason Smith, and the roster has been rejuvenated—West and Andersen are the oldest Hornets, at 30, while Paul, Ariza and revitalized shooting guard Marco Bellinelli (12.7 points per game) head a promising group of seven Hornets who are 25 or younger. “It’s not a fluke,” says Mavs coach Rick Carlisle, who inflicted the Hornets’ first loss, in Dallas, after an 8–0 start. “They’re planting the seeds.”.”
Yeah, the absence of Okafur just really jumps out at you. it seems everyone gets mentioned BUT Okafur.
dberri
November 29, 2010
Michael,
I got tired of scrolling down for the Wages of Wins Network. So I moved the recent posts down. Now I am getting tired of scrolling down for the recent posts. How about this thing gets programmed so the stuff on the right is in the exact order I desire each time I visit?
Matt
November 29, 2010
Why not just make recent posts the 2nd group down? It is getting annoying
Tommy_Grand
November 29, 2010
Professor,
I have a simpler explanation for why the Hornets have improved. Last year, I had the #1 overall pick in my fanstasy league. I selected Chris Paul. Naturally, he proceeded to have the worst year of his career. This year, I did not pick until #9. As you might expect, I did not get Chris Paul. In fact, I do not have a Hornet on my fantasy team. Hence: massive improvement.
dberri
November 29, 2010
Okay, how about how the recent posts are listed now?
Michael
November 29, 2010
Thanks that’s better. :-)
Alejandro Fitch
November 29, 2010
Hi DB,
I didn’t know how to contact you, but love all of the information you share about basketball. I was hoping you could share some news I have.
With the NBA season in full swing, Univision is proud to announce the release of its éne•bé•a, basketball site at http://www.UnivisionDeportes.com co-branded with the NBA.
The site aims to be the Spanish-language go to site for all things NBA. Hispanic fans will be able to further engage in sharing their passion of professional basketball with:
• Blogs by Latino NBA players
• Photo galleries
• Interactive fan forums
• Up to the minute results and stats
As you are a predominant NBA blogger, I was hoping you could share the site with your readers. For more information check out the full press release here http://www.univision.net/corp/en/press.jsp or feel free to contact me with any questions you may have.
This is a great site for all Spanish speaking NBA fans, so we appreciate any help in spreading the news!
Thanks,
Alejandro Fitch
Banyan Branch for Univision
winniepoo
November 30, 2010
Hey Tommy,
I know how you feel mate. My fantasy team each year is a 100% barometer for the top new players of next year. You would think I would just reselect those guys but I start to get sick of the hype – you know from inside my head. haha.