Once upon a time the Orlando Magic were the “best” team in the NBA (where “best” is defined in terms of efficiency differential).
Okay, it was just last year. The Magic’s efficiency differential (offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency) was 7.95 last season. This mark actually led the NBA in 2009-10. And only 25 teams since 1973-74 posted a better mark. So although the Magic faltered in the Eastern Conference Finals last year, the Magic in 2009-10 were actually one of the better teams across the past four decades.
Being among the best, though, isn’t good enough. The Magic want to win a title. And after 26 games in 2010-11 it is clear the Magic are no longer the “best” team in the NBA. As of Sunday morning, here are the top teams in terms of efficiency differential:
- Miami Heat: 10.48
- Boston Celtics: 10.11
- San Antonio Spurs: 9.46
- Los Angeles Lakers: 8.73
- Dallas Mavericks: 6.51
- Orlando Magic: 4.01
This list reveals…
- The Magic are now ranked 6th in efficiency differential.
- Even if the Magic were as good as last year, the team would only rank 5th.
- And if the Heat and Celtics maintain these marks (and that is a big if), this will be the first time (since 1973-74) that two teams in a single season posted a 10.0 differential. In fact, if this happens it will be the first time a team posted a 10.0 differential and failed to win the title (the previous four teams – Chicago Bulls in 1991-92, 1995-96, and 1996-97 and the Boston Celtics in 2007-08 – all won the title).
The dominance of the Heat and Celtics this season is certainly an interesting story. But for now, let’s talk about the Magic.
We can see the Magic have slipped a bit since last year. The team’s efficiency differential in 2009-10 suggests a team that should win about 61 games. The team’s efficiency differential this season is consistent with about 51 victories. So what explains the ten-game decline?
To answer this question, let’s move from efficiency differential to Wins Produced. The following table reveals that if these players had performed as they did last year the Magic would currently be on pace to win about 56 games. Again, last year the team’s differential suggested 61 wins; and we can explain the move from 61 wins to 56 victories by noting the team lost Matt Barnes (8.8 Wins Produced last year – a mark that is somewhat mitigated by the addition of Quentin Richardson) and both Jason Williams and Ryan Anderson have missed some time.
What about the move from 56 wins to 51? Well, that story seems to be mostly about Dwight Howard. Had Howard maintained his per-minute productivity from last year he would be on pace to produce about 21 wins this year. Instead, he is only on pace to produce 16.3 wins. This is certainly an excellent mark. But it appears Superman has slipped a bit.
When we look at the individual stats, we see Howard has declined with respect to shooting efficiency (from the field and the line), rebounds, assists, and blocked shots. Again, Howard is still amazing. But all of these small declines result in Howard moving from really amazing to just amazing.
Even if Howard had maintained what he did last year (and the team had the services of Jason Williams and Ryan Anderson for the entire season, and Richardson fully replaced the loss of Barnes’ productivity), the Magic still wouldn’t be as good as the Heat and Celtics. And since this team wants to win a title, and you are not likely to win a title if you enter the playoffs with a team that is not as good as the top teams in the league, changes had to be made.
Those changes came in two big trades yesterday. Coming to the Magic are the following players (with WP48 – Wins Produced per 48 minutes – reported for each player):
- Gilbert Arenas: 29 years old, 0.033 WP48
- Jason Richardson: 30 years old, 0.169 WP48
- Hedo Turkoglu: 31 years old, 0.010 WP48
- Earl Clark: 23 years old, -0.083 WP48
And here are the players that are departing.
- Rashard Lewis: 31 years old, -0.016 WP48
- Vince Carter: 34 years old, 0.131 WP48
- Mickael Pietrus: 28 years old, 0.024 WP48
- Marcin Gortat: 26 years old, 0.172 WP48
Here are some quick thoughts on this trade:
- Jason Richardson is slightly more productive than Vince Carter, four years younger, and cheaper. So that move helps, but not enough to catch the Heat and Celtics.
- Losing Gortat hurts. According to Yahoo.com, Ryan Anderson replaces Gortat as the back-up center. And Earl Clark – who has yet to be a productive NBA player – replaces Anderson as the back-up power forward. One suspects, though, that Turkoglu is actually going to be spending time at power forward.
- This suspicion comes from the fact the team is now over-loaded at guard. Right now the team has Jameer Nelson, J.J. Redick, Jason Richardson, Quentin Richardson, Gilbert Arenas, and Jason Williams at guard. For these players to see the floor, someone is going to be playing small forward. And that moves Turkoglu to power forward.
- All of that means, the Magic are probably worse off after this move. The loss of Gortat forces this team to play people out of position throughout the roster. So although the team gains a bit moving from Carter to Richardson, the Magic move backwards in a number of other places.
So the Magic – as currently constructed – are probably not as good as the Heat and Celtics.
- This means that Dwight Howard is not likely to win a title this year.
- And that means Howard is going to end this season with a playoff loss.
- And such a loss is probably going to lead Howard to think about playing elsewhere after the 2011-12 season.
One last thought on this move. It appears the acquisition of Turkoglu means the Magic are trying to repeat the 2008-09 season when the team advanced to the NBA Finals. Turkoglu, though, only produced 6.8 wins for the Magic that season [with a 0.115 WP48]. His ADJ P48 that season was 0.292. Last season he posted a 0.280 mark. And this year his ADJ P48 is 0.282. At small forward, these marks are consistent with an average player. At power forward, Turkoglu will be below average. So again, it is hard seeing how this move really helps the Magic contend for a title.
– DJ
P.S. By the way, I am obviously not the only one commenting on this move. Around the Wages of Wins network one should also read the analysis of Arturo Galletti and Ty Willihnganz.
Wages of Wins Journal 
sportsfanatic613
December 19, 2010
I love Dr. Berri’s analysis. I just want to add my two cents to what Dr. Berri has broken down to the most simplistic terms .
Otis Smith is too shrewd of a gm for this to be the last piece of his wheeling and dealing. He now has 4 point guards with Nelson, Arenas, Chris Duhon and Jason Williams. Smith is not going to leave himself so short handed up front with no real back up for Dwight Howard. Brandon Bass, Ryan Anderson and Earl Clark are much too small. What happens if Dwight Howard gets into foul trouble or gets hurt for a few games? Otis definitely has something up his sleeve. If I had to take bets, I think that he has another trade on the table with either Dallas for Brandon Haywood or Portland for either Pryzbilla or Camby. I could see Orlando trading Jameer Nelson to Portland as Brandon Roy wants to play with a point guard that has a good outside shot. Another scenario is trading the just acquired Jason Richardson to Dallas for Brandon Haywood. Of course, others would be involved in this two deals. Based upon WP48, all of the centers mentioned have been in the 10 of only centers (not power forwards) except for Camby. Pryzbilla, Gortat, Haywood, Camby are all top ten based upon WP48.
Getting Arenas for Rashard Lewis was a no brainer for Otis Smith, but I do question the so far rest of the deal since as Dr. Berri has explained above, Phoenix makes out like bandits and Orlando only gains a younger and slightly better shooting guard who only makes less money this year.
As, I wrote at the beginning, there must be more to these so far two trades. I can’t wait to see the rest…..
sportsfanatic613
December 19, 2010
correction of what I didn’t write correctly or coherently above: Gortat, Haywood, Pryzbilla and Camby are all top ten rated center if we include the actual centers and not the power forwards that play center. Camby does play both, but this is to exclude the other power forwards that play out of position at center.
fricktho
December 19, 2010
The Magic can’t be better from this. They just can’t be.
They replace Lewis -0.016 and Gortat 0.172 with Turkoglu 0.010 and Anderson 0.069 in the front court. So the front court has clearly been downgraded.
The bigger question, and I think the aspect that may shape this trade is what becomes of Jameer Nelson? He’s outproduced Arenas by a significant margin. If Arenas either cuts into Nelson’s minutes, or even more, if Nelson is dealt as a result of this the Magic might be hurting pretty bad, and end up looking pretty foolish.
It’s amazing to me that the answer to their problems was problem sitting right in front of their faces, and that would simply to have been to sit Rashard Lewis and let Q.Richardson, Bass, and Gortat take his minutes. When you have a negative win producer playing that many minutes for your team it’s kind of a big deal.
Adam C. Morrison
December 19, 2010
I’d bet that Arenas performs significantly better in Orlando than in Washington.
Italian Stallion
December 19, 2010
If I was in charge of Orlando I might have made some changes, but probably not any of these.
1. Rashard Lewis is dramatically overpaid and beginning to decline, but he started the year off horrifically and has been playing better lately. So I don’t think he’s as bad as he looks. The real problem is that he’s not a PF. Bass should have been the full time PF and Lewis should have been playing SF.
2. I’m not sure what’s going on with all of Howard’s game, but he worked all summer with Hakeem Olajuwon and is trying to incorporate some new moves and shots into his somewhat limited offense. As a result his usage is up and he’s taking more jumpers than he used to . He’s scoring a little more, but his efficiency has suffered.
I’m not sure I understand any of these moves. These deals look so bad to me I have to assume they are going to make another deal, but I don’t see Arenas and Hedo as especially attractive players to want or see them as easy to move .
I thought going for Melo might make some sense for Orlando because I think he’d sign an extension with them, but I don’t see how any of these players helps the team get Melo.
Italian Stallion
December 19, 2010
D Berri
I have one question. Where are you getting those efficiency differential totals from? My numbers are a little lower.
Italian Stallion
December 19, 2010
Never mind. I was looking at Point Differential. Doh!
stephanieg
December 20, 2010
What did prime Arenas look like in terms of WP? Better than this year, I assume, but maybe not. There’s always a hope he could return to his former glory, or at least not be as terrible as right now, right? At least, you should make that qualification as a CYA in case a miracle occurs.
Leroy Smith
December 20, 2010
Sportsfan,
With so many point guards, maybe Otis will be able to give Khan 2 of them for one Power Forward. I’m sure he would be more than willing to part with Kevin Love for a few more PGs. You can never have too many of those. And I’m sure the people of Minisota can’t wait for that stocking stuffer.
kevin
December 20, 2010
“Rashard Lewis is dramatically overpaid and beginning to decline, but he started the year off horrifically and has been playing better lately. ”
“What did prime Arenas look like in terms of WP?”
Arenas might have an even uglier conract, and has one more year on it. for this to work out for Orlando, Arenas would have to revert back to his previous production. Here is what Arenas has done in the past (WP48):
2007- 0.173
2008- 0.067
2009- 0.200 (in 68 minutes)
2010- 0.078
2011- 0.006
I don’t think I’ll hold my breath, waiting for Arenas to snap back.
szr
December 20, 2010
Arenas was an above-average WP48 during his best season. A good player, but not exactly someone to build a team around. The real problem with Arenas has a lot less to do with his weird antics and penchant of threatening teammates with guns and defecating in their shoes (although those are real problems). The real problem is it has been like 5 years since he’s really been healthy.
For me, I’m pretty happy that Washington got to trade and awful 4 year contract for an awful 3 year contract. A straight-up swap in which Washington is a small winner is about as good as it was going to get.
And who knows? With Wall being injured and the Wizards being so awful, it might mean he will start scoring a ton, people will say “Lewis is back!” and they can trade him for Camby or some other undervalued productive player.
brgulker
December 20, 2010
That’s the biggest question for ORL moving forward, IMO. It’s going to be really hard to bring Arenas off the bench, given how much he makes, which appeared to be the reason Lewis started for so long (and out of position).
A very bizarre couple of trades, to say the least.
Daniel
December 20, 2010
Earl Clark isn’t going to play more than a 100 minutes over the season. He’s probably going to be an expensive ballboy, actually. Brandon Bass/Ryan Anderson will be sharing all the PF minutes, and will split the time at the C position as well.
kevin
December 20, 2010
brgulker, Stan Van Gundy stated emphatically yesterday that Nelson will continue to start.
sportsfanatic613
December 20, 2010
To Leroy Smith:
1) : ) good one.
2) Unfortunately, for Kahn, out of the 4 guards that he drafted in the first round (Rubio, Flynn, Lawson, Ellington), the one that he traded away would have been the one doing the most good for his club.( I still don’t understand how both Flynn and Jrue Holiday were taken before Lawson, who has this year proven in the absence of Chaucey Billups that he(Lawson) is ready for prime time while both Minnesota and Philadelphia are still struggling and telling themselves that Flynn and Holiday are ready for prime time.)
kevin
December 20, 2010
It’s very simple. Flynn and Holday had reps as being good shooters while Lawson didn’t, and so the draftniks naturally assumed his game would translate better in a faster league.
Adam C. Morrison
December 20, 2010
And news came out that Howard wants a title or bust.
These trades make more sense in that light. ORL’s feeling desperate.
The problem when superstars put that kind of pressure on the organization, though, is that it leads to emphasizing short-term over long-term results, which almost inevitably leads to both short- and long-term failure.
Plus how is Howard going to threaten to opt out this summer when the new CBA will likely mean he earns less on his next contract? I’d call his bluff.
I would’ve just done Lewis-for-Arenas and went from there.
Arenas has all the motivation in the world to give it his all. He’s never been good defensively, but he’s never been ASKED to be good defensively. The Magic could tell him, “Put up or shut up,” and if he puts up, hey, you can start over Nelson and guard PGs. Boom, problem solved.
But if he keeps jacking up 3-pointers and playing lackadaisical D, okie dokie then, stick to the bench.
The second trade was just terrible, though.
It’s interesting because it gives the Suns a ton of leverage. They could still trade Nash at the deadline and get so much more, because they can either fight for the playoffs or sell Nash off to the highest bidder.
Nash for Bynum anyone? ;)
Michael
December 20, 2010
BBR have a pretty good piece about Arenas up right now:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8446
reservoirgod
December 21, 2010
Arenas was never asked to play defense?
That’s hilarious. Quotes about certain players’ poor defense leaked out of that DC locker room for years. The defense was so bad before Arenas got suspended last year, Flip Saunders said he could take any player on the team to the hole. And he’s 50! Do you really think he’d say that to reporters but not ask Arenas to play defense? Do you really think that Eddie Jordan weighed the option of asking Arenas to play defense against losing & getting fired and chose the former? Really?
The Magic screwed themselves just like the Cavs did last season and Otis Smith signed off on his future termination when he signed off on that trade. Maybe Pat Riley should release a statement to reporters about his competitiveness. The Wizards fan got it right – Arenas is a problem. If SVG starts him at SG, then the Magic will be worse. If they bring him off the bench, then he starts trying to assert himself in the locker room by brandishing guns & dropping deuces in teammates’ shoes. As for the Magic big men, I agree w/ DJ. I think they’ll eventually end up playing Hedo at PF but what I don’t understand is why Daniel Orton doesn’t get any shot to play backup center. He can’t be much worse than Malik Allen can he? If they play him, then at least they can start grooming Dwight’s replacement – because he’s going back home to ATL when his contract expires in 2012.
Adam C. Morrison
December 21, 2010
Yes, he was literally never asked to play defense in his entire NBA career, going all the way back to prep school.
Curious Guy
December 21, 2010
Although I’m not a fan of this trade (because Magic used their best assets to acquire players with HUGE downside in terms of contracts) I think prof Berri missed a point in this topic.
Here’s Orlando’s old depth chart (there were some missed games so it doesn’t add up perfectly):
C Dwight [0.293 in 35 mpg] / Gortat [0.172 in 16 mpg]
PF Lewis [-0.016 in 24 mpg] / Bass [0.140 in 23 mpg]
SF Lewis [-0.016 in 8 mpg] / Vince [0.131 in 22 mpg] / Pietrus [0.024 in 22 mpg]
SG Vince [0.131 in 8 mpg] / Redick [0.115 in 24 mpg] / QRich [0.192 in 24 mpg]
PG Nelson [0.164 in 30 mpg] / Duhon [-0.016 in 18 mpg]
Here’s my guess for Orlando’s new depth chart:
C Dwight [0.293 in 40 mpg] / Ryan Anderson [0.069 in 8 mpg] (X)
PF Bass [0.140 in 32 mpg] / Hedo [0.010 in 16 mpg]
SF JRich [0.169 in 32 mpg] / Hedo [0.010 in 16 mpg]
SG Redick [0.115 in 20 mpg] / QRich [0.192 in 18 mpg] / Arenas [0.033 in 10 mpg]
PG Nelson [0.164 in 30 mpg] / Arenas [0.033 in 18 mpg]
(X) – I’m pretty sure Magic will sign (or trade for) veteran big man but the most important point regarding center position is that without best backup in the league Dwight will play more minutes.
By my calculations that shuffle alone would improve Magic by around 3 wins and that indeed would be much ado about nothing but here’s a catch: without any change it would be the worst season of both Turkoglu’s and Arenas’ career. They are old but not that old to fall off the cliff like that and IMHO there are reasonable explanations for their struggles:
Hedo’s playmaking skills were useless next to Nash and he absolutely can’t play PF with Frye at center (but it can work with Dwight) so he was clearly misfit in Phoenix.
Arenas also had a horrible situation: very bad team, past accusations and he clearly was waiting to be traded since Wizards drafted John Wall.
Now both were wanted by a winning team and acquired to deliver a championship and if that can’t change their attitude/motivation I will loose 5% of my faith that I know anything about this league ;-)
That all said if we assume Dwight, Hedo and Arenas will return to their last year’s production Orlando would improve by a whooping ~12 wins and would be on a level with other juggernauts in the league.
Yes, with their contracts it’s a HUGE gamble but I don’t agree there was basically lateral move without any upside for Magic. They have 3 months to figure it all out…
Adam C. Morrison
December 21, 2010
Good analysis Curious Guy!
Curious Guy
December 22, 2010
“Good analysis Curious Guy!”
Thanks. Although first two games suggest that SVG doesn’t share my vision ;-)
At least for now…
marparker
December 22, 2010
I can think we can expect both Arenas and Hedo to be average players with this team. Its very hard for anyone on a 60 win team to be below average. Their short comings iwll be covered for. Their best traits will be emphasized.
For an example of old guy who sucked before going to a pretty good team see Harper, Ron. For an opposite example see Ariza, Trevor.
Shareef
December 23, 2010
http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8472