Amare Stoudemire is currently ranked third in All-Star votes for Eastern Conference forwards (behind LeBron James and Kevin Garnett). Mark Stein of ESPN.com, though, apparently disagrees with the voters. For Stein, Stoudemire is the Most Valuable Player in the Eastern Conference for the first third of the season.
Michael Schwartz – at Valley of the Sun – appears to disagree. At least, Schwartz argues that Stoudemire is essentially the same player we saw last year in Phoenix.
Here is some of what Schwartz had to say:
As for Wins Produced, STAT(Amare Stoudemire) has produced 3.1 wins with a 0.118 WP48, which is in the middle of what he did the last two years (0.140 last season and .0103 the year before) but a good chunk worse than what he produced his three healthy years before that.
Amare is averaging 26.4 points and 9.0 rebounds per game but he is taking almost five shots more than his career average and is shooting over 50 percentage points worse than last year from the field.
Stoudemire’s PER (23.85) is the highest it’s been since 2007-08 and is ninth best in the NBA (just behind Nash), but his usage rate is also at a career-high level, his true shooting percentage is the lowest it’s been since he was paired with Nash (and a good chunk lower than most of his years), and his rebound rate has only been lower twice his entire career. Only Rajon Rondo averages more turnovers per game than STAT’s 3.8 per contest and his turnover ratio has only been higher once since 2004-05.
This isn’t to say Stoudemire isn’t having a fantastic season. He’s just doing the same thing he’s always done just slightly less efficiently, without Steve Nash and in a bigger market that’s craving a winner. Amare Stoudemire put up better second-half numbers than almost every player in the NBA last season as he carried the Suns down the stretch, so watching him do something similar in New York really is no surprise.
Let me add to the story being told by looking at Stoudemire’s per 48 minute stats after 34 games this year and across the entire regular season last year in Phoenix. Stoudemire is spending quite a bit of time at center this season (hence his WP48 numbers overall are somewhat lower), but I am going to compare him to the average power forward.
As Schwartz noted, Stoudemire is taking more field goal attempts in New York. But he is a less efficient scorer, more prone to turnovers, and less able to get rebounds. So although is scoring is up, his overall production is slightly down. And that means Stoudemire is not the most productive player in the Eastern Conference.
Now is he Most Valuable? Well, MVP is not formally defined. I would argue that Most Productive is essentially the same as MVP. But others may disagree and I am sure one can come up with a definition that makes Stoudemire the MVP. For example, how about leading scorer in the biggest NBA market?
– DJ
Wages of Wins Journal 
NerdNumbers
January 7, 2011
DJ,
Thanks so much for this piece! Amare getting all the credit for New York has been maddening. He is a classic example of people looking at a team doing better and picking the highest scorer (Or the Yahoo Player of the Game algorithm)
Italian Stallion
January 7, 2011
I think it might make sense to look at Amare’s stats for the first 11 games (the Knicks were 3 – 8) and since then (17 – 6).
For the first 11 games he and Raymond Felton were atrocious in the pick and roll (the Knicks core play for D’Antoni). Felton couldn’t get him the ball in a good spot and they were both turning the ball over like crazy trying to force the play from bad positions. Once they worked out the chemistry, both of them starting playing a lot better. That’s when the Knicks starting winning.
During that early run of games Amare’s TS% was less than 50%. It has risen dramatically since then.
I think people’s current perceptions of both Amare and Felton are based almost entirely on how they’ve been playing together since they got on the same page. It’s almost as if the fist 11 games didn’t occur.
It’s sort of like the Heat. When people evaluate the Heat now, they totally disregard the early games when they were playing very inconsistent basketball while working out their roles and style of play etc….
arturogalletti
January 7, 2011
IS,
I’ve seen the numbers. Amare is playing much better and he’s playing a lot of center. He’s around .200 for a PF but arguing he’s the MVP is not realistic. KG, Lebron, Rose all have better arguments as the best players on the best teams. I do agree that he has totally been worth the money for the Knicks. I might have even said as much before the season.
NerdNumbers
January 7, 2011
IS,
http://nerdnumbers.com/archives/1303, Amare isn’t MVP but amazingly as a Nuggets fan I get to say to the Knicks?? “You guys have a strong core and could be great as long as you don’t overpay for Melo.”
Italian Stallion
January 7, 2011
I don’t think he’s an MVP candidate either. However, I do think he has had a very positive impact on the team after the slow start. I also think he’s had a very positive impact on some of the young players. They used to struggle to close out games, but Amare’s presence in crunch time has had a settling impact because he comes up with so many big plays (even on defense at times) the pressure is off them. Amare and to a lesser degree Felton carry the load and responsibility for the losses even when its not their fault.
nerdnumbers
January 7, 2011
IS,
Couldn’t agree more. As I say in the article Amare is essentially a very good Robin to Landry Fields this season. Your starting five are playing really well. You guys just need to do two things 1) Get a real center 2) Cut loose your bad players. Do that and you guys are top four in the East for the forseeable future. Don’t sign Melo though. . . that’d just be stupid. Arturo at one point made the good observation that in Phoenix Amare wasn’t worth the money but in New York he was.
arturogalletti
January 7, 2011
Yep. Wins worth more in New York. Which is why Okafor and CP3 in NYK (if the Ellison sale for the Hornets falls through) sound likely to me.
http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=25j93m3
Greyberger
January 7, 2011
“He’s just doing the same thing he’s always done just slightly less efficiently”
Hey there. Amare’s using more than 30% of the team’s possessions, shooting a 58% TS and rebounding better than 12% TRB.
Only Larry Bird (once), Yao Ming (once), and Karl Malone and Shaq (over and over) have ever accomplished this over a full season. He was taking 27% usg last year and for his career before the move.
Amare’s a legit MVP candidate. I would say Dirk is having the better year in the mostly-offense-big category, but Amare belongs in the conversation.
Michael
January 8, 2011
“I am sure one can come up with a definition that makes Stoudemire the MVP. For example, how about leading scorer in the biggest NBA market? ”
That does explain why David Lee was M.V.P last year. Also why 3 time M.V.P Stephon Marbury is a lock for the Hall of Fame!
entityabyss
January 8, 2011
If the knicks trade landry fields for carmelo anthony, that’ll be funny.
welbilt bread machine
January 12, 2011
Amare is being over-hyped now, just like David Lee was over-hyped last year. It’s the nature of the beast of playing in NY. Now I have to suffer watching my Warriors for years to come because they overpaid Lee to a long term deal.