Henry Abbott created quite the stir at TrueHoop on Friday. In “The Truth about Kobe Bryant in Crunch Time”, Henry attacked a belief held by NBA decision-makers, the media, and fans. The vast majority of these people appear to believe that Kobe is the best player in the clutch in the NBA. Henry presented extensive evidence that this belief is not supported by much evidence. In fact, the extensive evidence Henry presents makes it clear that Kobe is simply not the best player in crunch-time.
It is not necessary to review all of this evidence here (if you haven’t already, go read Henry’s lenghthy column). But one should note that
- since 1996-97, Kobe has taken 115 shots in the final 24 seconds of close games (teams within two points). No one has taken more shots in this situation.
- Kobe has only hit on 31.3% of these shots, a mark eclipsed by many other players.
- Since Kobe arrived, the Lakers have had the best offense in the league. But in crunch time – with Kobe on the roster – the Lakers are quite a bit worse (ranking only 12th).
So, Kobe takes more shots than anyone else in crunch time. But he isn’t particularly good at making these shots and Kobe taking all these shots doesn’t appear to help his team.
This story appeared on the front page of the ESPN website on Friday. So it is possible Kobe heard about this. And on Friday night, Kobe had his first chance to respond. And if Friday was his first response, it appears Kobe really wanted to confirm everything Henry was saying.
To see this, let’s review what happened in the last two minutes of Friday’s game between the Sacramento Kings and the LA Lakers. With two minutes to go in the game, the Kings led 95-90 and the Lakers had the ball.
Here is how the Lakers’ possessions played out until the end of the contest:
@ 1:53 — Kobe misses 10-foot jumper (Pau Gasol rebounded the miss and then Shannon Brown missed a three-pointer)
After the Kings scored to make it 97-90…
@1:13 –Kobe misses a three-point shot
Omri Casspi of the Kings rebounded the miss but Tyreke Evans (with help from Lamar Odom) turned the ball back over to the Kings. And then…
@0:49 – Kobe makes an 8-foot jumper to pull the Lakers within 97-92
After Samuel Dalembert is fouled and makes one of two free throws, Kobe Bryant draws a foul (while in the act of shooting).
@0:32 – Kobe Bryant makes two free throws
After Carl Landry is fouled and makes one of two free throws, the Lakers call a time-out. After the time-out…
@0:20 – Kobe Bryant misses a three-point shot
After the Lakers get the offensive rebound, Steve Blake misses a three-point shot. After the Lakers get the offensive rebound…
@0:08 – Kobe Bryant misses a three-point shot
After the Lakers get the offensive rebound, Steve Blake is fouled and makes one of two free throws. After Pau Gasol rebounds the miss, Gasol misses a layup and Carl Landry of the Kings grabs the rebound. Landry is fouled and makes one of two free throws. The Lakers call time-out after the make, and then…
@ 0:02 – Kobe Bryant misses a three point shot.
Samuel Dalembert rebounds the miss and the game ends.
Okay, let’s recap. The Lakers are down by five. But the Lakers had the ball and – according to conventional wisdom – were in great shape because they also had Kobe Bryant. And here is what Mr. Bryant did to win this game:
- Of the Lakers nine field goal attempts in the last two minutes, Kobe took six of these shots. Yes, Kobe likes taking shots at the end of a close game.
- On these six shots, Kobe scored two points for an effective field goal percentage of 17%. Yes, Kobe has problems hitting shots in close games.
- Prior to the last two minutes of the game, the Lakers attempted 71 field goal attempts, and Kobe took 21. On these 21 field goal attempts, Kobe scored 26 points for an effective field goal percentage of 62%. Yes, Kobe is really good. In fact, he is a much better shooter when he is not playing at the end of a close game.
Once again, Henry’s story appears on the front page of the ESPN.com website on Friday morning. That night, Kobe goes out and illustrates what Henry was saying. In the last two minutes of a close game, Kobe decides to take the vast majority of his team’s shots. And his ability to hit these shots is far lower than what we see across the rest of the game.
Henry’s post has generated more than 2,500 comments. And one suspects, many of these weren’t nice. One wonders, though, if any of the people who think Henry is a “Kobe-hater” (whatever that is) were impressed by what Kobe did on Friday night. Or did this performance change their mind?
Okay, I doubt it changed many people’s minds. Especially the minds of those “Abbott-haters”.
– DJ
Wages of Wins Journal 
Blake
January 30, 2011
Did you watch the game, Prof. Berri? I hear that solves any problems you (read: the data) might have with Kobe.
EvanZ
January 30, 2011
I have to wonder whether Berri would have written this article if Kobe had hit those shots.
DavidR
January 30, 2011
Real basketball fans have known for years that Kobe is not truly clutch, and becomes an even bigger ballhog in the clutch. This is not news, but the positive thing is that ESPN is finally realizing the truth.
Rafael
January 30, 2011
I know at least in baseball the notion of clutch is statistically largely noise and sample-size issues. Is this true in basketball as well? Might it be that Kobe is neither clutch or un-clutch, but that drawing conclusions based on 50-60 shots from anyone at any narrowly defined time is essentially just data-mining?
Wouldn’t we say that if we decided to look at Kobe’s shots in minutes 10-5 in second quarters? It seems like a lot of ink to spill over an issue that is largely illusory and inconclusive either way, no?
J. Scott
January 30, 2011
dberri, was the last part supposed to be facetious? There’s no particular reason why anyone would/should be “impressed”(or unimpressed, for that matter)by anything they see in just one game…right?
DavidR
January 30, 2011
The sample size is not 50-60 shots. It’s over twice that. And the difference between Kobe’s performance in this “Clutch” period, and his performacne during other times is striking. There is no way around the fact that Kobe’s performance, especially shooting %, simple drops starkly and dramatically during clutch play. During this same period, he is also much more likely to monopolize the ball, and fail to get an assist.
Cheech Cohen
January 30, 2011
Shouldn’t clutch FG% (by any player, but especially players expected to take take clutch shots) be lower due to tighter defense in clutch situations? I would imagine clutch FGA are generally much more contested relative to non-clutch FGA. This is just a guess.
marparker
January 30, 2011
Cheech,
They have plenty of evidence for other players playing very well.
My favorite ESPN moment was when they had the ingenious idea to put up a graphic of who had the most clutch situation made shots since 2003. Kobe was in second to Lebron James. Only catch was Lebron didnt enter the league until the next year. So they spotted Kobe a year and all of Lebrons early years and he still wasn’t the best.
They took it down it didnt make the subsequent sportscenter showings.
marparker
January 30, 2011
Rafeal,
THe difference being that in baseball Albert Pujols can’t decide he’s going to take every at bat in the 9th inning.
alvy
January 30, 2011
What’s the point of this post? It seems like a jab at those who suggest, “Watch the games!” which is pretty brilliant/funny, but let’s be serious, what’s the purpose of this post? I’m guessing traffic, however.
Shawn Ryan
January 30, 2011
-Alvy
I would suggest that when writing a blog like this, you take your inspiration where you can. Also, it’s an acknowledgement of a main stream (or rather THE mainstream) NBA blogger publicly presenting an aspect of NBA analysis that has been well worn around this blog and the NBA stats community in general.
Philip
January 30, 2011
alvy,
Is “fighting confirmation bias of ‘Kobe is clutch’ proponents and endorsing a well-written and researched article by a fellow blogger” a valid justification for you?
Daniel
January 30, 2011
It’s no secret that many people in the public perceive that NBA players coast through many regular season games and only play hard in the last few minutes.
Using this perception as a lens to view these small sample sizes, “clutchness” should be prove to be of more significance in basketball than in any other sport.
robbieomalley
January 30, 2011
DBerri,
Greg Monroe 6-8 FG 15 points 17 rebounds. He’s been playing really well lately. He’s looking better than his college numbers. Looks like the Pistons have a nice young piece to build around rather than old producers (McGrady and Wallace) and younger overpaid non producers (Gordon, Villanueva). That’s gotta be encouraging.
alvy
January 30, 2011
Shawn Ryan,
D. Berri typically has very good ideas when he leads a discussion on his blog, for instance, how the Pistons are terrible because Joe Dumars has recently made bad decisions, or the problem of “[resisting] the urge to look at data from one game or a small subset of games and then leap to a conclusion.” Of course, the Wages of Win journal has commented upon several headlining stories, but has does so with respect to Wins Produced, this post however, doesn’t particularly add anything to the discussion (look over at Arturo’s blog for his take on this conversation, it’s the same conclusion but much more interesting). In other words, Henry Abbott scratches D. Berri’s back and he gets a pat on the back (which I actually think is quite polite and acknowledgement amongst one another is always a positive gesture). Lastly, I have a blog (you can click on my name) and while I completely agree that one should take their inspiration where they can, I don’t think it is entirely worthy to suggest something by noting one single performance, especially when Kobe Bryant has in the past done his best to contradict the story told by Henry Abbott.
Philip,
Are you serious? Goddamn dude.
dberri
January 30, 2011
Okay, how about a comment on today’s game? Kobe plays very well. But his teammates are worried about his problems in the clutch. Realizing they can’t completely put away the Celtics, the teammates make sure Kobe doesn’t have to play in the clutch by letting Boston blow them off the floor. Would that make for a good post? :)
dberri
January 30, 2011
Robbie,
Greg Monroe playing well isn’t that encouraging. The Pistons don’t have enough pieces to contend for anything. And I don’t have confidence that the Pistons can find those pieces.
Italian Stallion
January 30, 2011
IMO that study is not conclusive of Kobe’s lack of ability to perform in the clutch. Quite honestly, I think you DO have to watch the games to understand what’s going on.
In clutch situations the other team KNOWS that Kobe is getting the ball and is very likely to shoot (something that isn’t always true with other top players). So they focus all their efforts on stopping him by putting their best defender on him and often even double or triple teaming him. As a result Kobe is often forced to take horrible shots. It’s borderline miraculous that he makes some of them because some are ridiculously stupid shots.
IMO what that all proves is that Kobe is a NOT a very SMART player in the clutch. It doesn’t necessarily say much about his ability to perform in the clutch because there’s a difference in the quality of shots he’s taking vs. what most other players are taking.
When Jordan was faced with that kind of defensive pressure he was smart enough to pass the ball to BJ Armstrong, Steve Kerr, etc… and allow them to take an uncontested shot.
He understood that even as great as he was, an uncontested shot by a great shooter is a better option than a retarded shot by him even if that other player lacked some of the same experience and success under fire that he had. Kobe has never developed that kind of trust in any teammate and he often kills his own team because of it.
dm
January 30, 2011
IS,
Since when is performing in the clutch only about hitting shots?
Surely having the poise and basketball IQ to deal with extra defensive pressure and find the open man with the game on the line can be considered clutch?
drryanpepper
January 30, 2011
IS,
No study or metric or stat (or even “watching the games” as so many like to say) can measure a player’s “ability to perform.”
All that sports reveal is ACTUAL performance. I can sit on a blog and shout that Ersan Ilyasova has the greatest “ability” of anyone in the NBA, but that is irrelevant if said “ability” does not translate into actual performance. If you’re the Denver Nuggets it doesn’t matter why Al Harrington misses all of his shots. Whether it’s because he has bad mechanics, poor physique or maybe he just likes to miss; in any case he is ineffective.
It is clear that Kobe’s performance in “clutch” situations leaves quite a bit to be desired for the Los Angeles Lakers, regardless of whether it is his choice or physical abilities.
Mike
January 31, 2011
The ONLY thing I hate about advanced stats – and it is th ONLY thing – is the complete lack of humour of so many who post here.
EXCELLENT post :)
stephanieg
January 31, 2011
IS:
That’s weird. To me the quintessential Kobe “clutch” play is either him pumpfaking 3-4 times, seeing the defender not bite, and then launching a fadeaway. That or a pull up 3 with a man in his face. I don’t think he actually gets doubled much in these situations if at all…and when teams do send a second guy he passes it out. But he plays so far from the basket it doesn’t make much sense to waste a second guy on him.
kevin
January 31, 2011
I couldn’t help noticing that Kobe’s stat line from the Cletics game featured no assists, blocks ro steals, and 5 personals.
That the Boston smalls all went off appears to me to be no coincidence.
Italian Stallion
January 31, 2011
Personally, I define clutch as the ability to handle high levels of pressure and continue performing at your usual physical and mental level (or better). I have never seen any indication that Kobe doesn’t qualify as clutch. I think a lack of basketball IQ that doesn’t allow you recognize the best option in the clutch is another matter. To me, Kobe takes a lot of retarded shots down the stretch and has no idea he’s doing the wrong thing.
kevin
January 31, 2011
IS,
Doesn’t “clutch” mean that you perform ABOVE your typical level of performance, that you can rise to the occasion? At least that’s the way I think of it.
I agree with you Kobe isn’t the smartest player on the planet. He’s great when it comes just to himself. But he has issues blending. He’ll never get it that the whole is greater than the sum of it’s parts.
Power Overwhelming
January 31, 2011
“He’ll never get it that the whole is greater than the sum of it’s parts.”
Ironically, Kobe Bryant and Wins Produced have the same problem.
Ovid
January 31, 2011
The problem with talking about stats and sample size and true shooting % is that most people don’t get the concept and you’re talking about two different things. A lot of the “watch the game” people define a great basketball player as who would win in a game of H-O-R-S-E, and there Kobe would be very strong. And so would Iverson. But Shaq in his prime and Dwight Howard now don’t have to take 26-footers with a guy in their face, they can just two hand dunk it. I’m pretty sure those still count for two points even if it’s not an elegant move with high degree of difficulty. But several people said something to the effect that “now you’re gonna tell me Dwight Howard is a better shooter than Kobe because he makes 60% to Kobe’s 43%”, as if that’s not true. They’re not wrong, they’re just defining shooting ability differently than someone actually interested in winning the game.
Neuman
February 1, 2011
All numbers aside, I still would want Kobe taking my clutch shots before I took anyone else, save for maybe Durant. Kobe always gives you a chance to win and you know he is going to give his all to get that win.