Carmelo Anthony is going to the Knicks. Finally. Here are the details (as reported by ESPN.com).
The New York Knicks Receive:
- Carmelo Anthony
- Chauncey Billups
- Shelden Williams
- Anthony Carter
- Renaldo Balkman
- Corey Brewer
The Denver Nuggets Receive:
- Raymond Felton
- Wilson Chandler
- Danilo Gallinari
- Timofey Mozgov
- First Round Pick in 2014 (plus other picks, cash, and maybe a toaster oven)
The Minnesota Timberwolves Receive
- Anthony Randolph
- Eddy Curry
And here are some quick thoughts on this trade (assuming it is true):
Let’s start with where the Nuggets and Knicks are at the All-Star break.
The Nuggets have a record of 32-25 with an efficiency differential of 2.46. Such a differential is consistent with a team that would win about 33 of their first 57 games and about 47 games across an 82 game season.
When we move to Wins Produced – reported below — we see that this team has been led by Nene Hilario, Arron Afflalo, and Chauncey Billups. Carmelo Anthony – for all his “star” power – was only the fourth most productive player on the team. And his performance – which is somewhat above average (average WP48 or Wins Produced per 48 minutes is 0.100) – is actually an improvement over what we saw last year. In sum, Carmelo Anthony is not as productive as his reputation suggests (a point made many times in the past).
Now let’s turn to the Knicks. After 54 games the Knicks have a record of 28-26. The team’s efficiency differential of 0.45 is consistent with a team that would win about 28 of their first 54 games, or about 42 games across an entire season.
When we turn to Wins Produced – reported below – we see that the most productive player on this team is Landry Fields (a point made before in this forum). In fact, without the addition of Fields, the Knicks would probably be headed for another trip to the NBA lottery. This is because the veteran players on the Knicks are essentially offering what they did last year. Yes, Wilson Chandler has done more and Amare Stoudemire – despite all the hype – is actually offering a bit less. But the Knicks – as a team – are about as good as what would expect; assuming we all expected Fields to be amazing (which, of course, we didn’t actually expect).
Now that we see where each team is at, here are some quick observations about the Knicks:
- Fans of the Knicks should be happy tonight. Not because the team acquired Melo. No, they should be happy that the price tag didn’t include Fields.
- That being said, should the Knicks fans expect this team to become a title contender? Although members of the media might think so, Melo is simply not that productive. Yes, he can play very well over short periods of time (he was doing very well early in the season). But as time progresses, Melo seems to regress to the somewhat above average performer we have always seen. In other words, the Knicks have not acquired LeBron James tonight. What they have acquired is a player who is just a little bit more productive than Wilson Chandler and Danilo Gallinari. As for the other parts in the trade…
- Chauncey Billups can offer more than Raymond Felton. But Billups is old.
- Corey Brewer is still young. Well, he is 24 (and players tend to peak around their mid-20s). And at this point, Brewer’s WP48 – if he is a shooting guard – is -0.004. If he is a small forward, his mark is -0.056. And that is a bit less than he offered last year. So if Brewer plays, he probably doesn’t help.
- Timofey Mozgov – who the Nuggets apparently coveted – is even less productive than Brewer (as hard as that is to believe). So losing Mozgov definitely helps the Knicks.
- And of course, if Balkman ever plays… well, he was very productive the last time he was in New York.
What about the Nuggets? Again, some quick thoughts…
- Denver really should have insisted on Landry Fields.
- Replacing Melo with Chandler and/or Gallinari only would cost the Nuggets about two wins this season. So yes, this is a small step back. But it appears rather small.
- Felton offers less than Billups, but again…. Billups is old (34 years old). Felton gives the Nuggets a player who is a bit less productive, but eight years younger.
- Who is going to play small forward for this team? The team now has Chandler, Gallinari, and Gary Forbes. Plus, J.R. Smith and/or Aaron Afflalo appear to have swung to the small forward spot this year. Not real clear how those minutes get allocated.
- The Nuggets now have three above average big men (Nene Hilario, Chris Andersen, and Kenyon Martin) and three big men who produce in the negative range (Al Harrington, Melvin Ely, and Mozgov). Interesting to see how those minutes get allocated.
In sum, it is not clear who is going to play for Denver. It is possible to come up with a line-up where this trade doesn’t really hurt Denver that much. But it is possible for this trade to really hurt, especially if Mozgov – the player they supposedly insisted upon – actually plays.
Okay, those were some quick thoughts.
Oops, forgot to mention Minnesota.
- It was a good move to get rid of Brewer.
- It would be interesting to see if Eddy Curry can play at all anymore. Yes, Curry is not really that productive. But does he offer less than Darko Milicic?
Okay, not sure on that one. It would be fun to find out (well, maybe fun isn’t the right word).
Update: Dre Alvarez also wrote about this trade on Monday night. His comment goes beyond what I wrote and reviews the long-run implications of the move.
– DJ
Wages of Wins Journal 
John Kenney
February 21, 2011
Surprised to see you don’t comment on possibility of Randolph playing for TWolves?
sportsfanatic613
February 21, 2011
I’m glad that you posted because Ive been waiting to read what the Wages of Wins take was on this deal. The biggest problem that Isiah, oh I mean the Knicks, have now caused is that they have removed themselves from the possibility of getting either Chris Paul, Dwight Howard or Deron Williams in 2012 when the Knicks would have again had enough salary cap space to sign a superstar. The big three of Lebron, Wade and Bosh have shown that if you really want to win, then you must sacrifice in order to get three so called superstars together. Carmelo and Stoudemire, both making maximum salaries will no longer allow the Knicks to sign a third guy. Apparently, Carmelo cares more about the money than actually winning. Stoudemire and Carmelo don’t appear to be able to get out of the first round of the playoffs. Lebron, Bosh and Wade accepted $14.5 instead of $16 million in order that they could play together and also sign Mike Miller and Udonis Haslem. The Knicks will not have such options as they will have $39 million for 2011-2012 wrapped up with their two so called superstars. The Knicks can also say goodbye to Donnie Walsh who will leave after this season and then Mike D’Antoni after next season as he will not be able to win with this group and thus be chased out of town. D’Antoni needs a running point guard and Chauncey is best in the set up/half court offense. You can’t put square pegs in round holes. Knicks fans can be thankful to owner James Dolan for listening to his best bud Isiah Thomas who already had previously destroyed New York for which New York is still paying. Isiah while working for New York, helped Chicago and Phoenix along with other clubs get under the cap and take their players such as Eddy Curry, Jamaal Crawford, Jalen Rose, Stephon Marbury, Penny Hardaway in exchange for expiring contracts. For how long will James Dolan allow a Chicago native to destroy the New York Knicks? Chicago has Joakim Noah which was New Yorks’ pick . Phoenix was able to sign Steven Nash because New York took Marbury from them. Also Isiah gave Phoenix a number 1 pick which was used this year by Utah. Also Tyrus Thomas was chosen with one of New York’s picks. Isiah is a dream for opposing general managers. If any team wants to get the best of a deal, simply deal with Isiah. As mentioned above, if only Landry Fields would have been included then New York would have truly realized the kind of mess that they have just done to themselves.
Italian Stallion
February 22, 2011
I’ll have a lot to say on this after the drugs I took when I heard Isiah was part of the negotiations wear off ;-)
I’m happy about one thing.
Anthony Randolph is finally on a team that doesn’t care much about wins or losses right now , how many stupid mistakes its young players make while they are learning the game, etc…
I’m not sure playing next to Kevin Love is going to work out so well since Randolph’s best attribute is rebounding, but at least he’ll get a chance to try to turn all that athleticism, height, and length into a productive player.
Italian Stallion
February 22, 2011
sportsfanatic613,
I haven’t looked at all the numbers yet, but Billups comes off the cap after next year. So that’s 14 million available for a new PG right there. We aren’t going to know who can fit anywhere until we see the new CBA.
kevin
February 22, 2011
Correct me if I’m wrong but if I’m the president of Florida Intl U, don’t I immediately fire Isiah for engaging in unauthorized outside activity and violating principles related to conflict-0f-interest? Or, if I’m the NCAA, don’t I immediately start an investigation?
entityabyss
February 22, 2011
I think the nuggets are trying to make some more trades. I think they want to trade felton (so ty lawson will start), smith, chandler, and / or nene.
They’re trying to rebuild.
kevin
February 22, 2011
They have a nice start, if they get more than 1 first round draft pick. I regard the Billups loss as no big deal since he isn’t the player he was 3 or 4 years ago and he will be out of the league in 2-3 years.
Dan Jiddish
February 22, 2011
Will be interesting to see if Melo or Shelden Williams eats into Landry Field’s production at all (specifically with regards to rebounds).
Nerd Numbers
February 22, 2011
The Nuggets are in such a scary spot right now. In theory we have some great young pieces (Lawson, Afflalo, Chandler and Nene) to build around. We have some good assets (Felton, J.R., Gallinari and Mozgov, picks and cash) and could be good going forward. Of course we may also trade the wrong pieces and end up with Mozgov and Harrington on a terrible team while Nene helps another team onto greatness. Two more days of terror.
Greyberger
February 22, 2011
Re: Nerd Numbers, I’d be more worried about losing Dean Oliver.
todd2
February 22, 2011
NYK needed someone to defend the post. Is Shelden Williams a reach? Maybe they’re not done trading either.
kevin
February 22, 2011
“NYK needed someone to defend the post. Is Shelden Williams a reach?”
He looked hopeless in the playoffs last year.
reservoirgod
February 22, 2011
Italian Stallion hit the nail on the head – nobody knows what the cap will be in 2 yrs So the Knicks haven’t cost themselves anything. Does it make sense for Amare & Melo to make more than Bosh & LeBron? No. Does it matter if the Knicks sign CP3? No.
Nerd Numbers
February 22, 2011
Mosi,
I think with your comment that makes you happy is this: Melo + aged Amare + Chris Paul can’t touch Bosh + Wade + LeBron.
New York is giving a lot of their resources to two average players. The plus is they have some good pieces around them but I can’t imagine with Amare + Melo running the show that the Knicks go past 2nd round in the next four years barring an amazing upset.
Evan
February 22, 2011
Any chance that CP3 could improve the efficiency of Amare and Melo? In his prime, Nash seemed to improve the efficiency of the players around him, even adjusted for age and tempo (J Johnson, Amare, Shawn Marion, etc). Might be an interesting post topic.
Philip
February 23, 2011
I’m interested to see what this does to Amare’s production. His high-efficiency, high usage scoring has always mitigated his poor rebounding. With the addition of Anthony, Amare’s scoring total will likely drop. How much will his overall production suffer as a result? Will he commit himself to rebounding to make up for the difference?
Mosi, Dre,
From a WP perspective, Paul + Fields makes for an awesome core; they’ll produce over 40 wins between them, and is pretty comparable to the James + Wade core the Heat have. Even if you only manage to surround them with average players, and even if those players are overpaid and overrated, they’ll still approach 60 wins.
But that seems like a long shot. The CBA is likely to lower the cap, therefore signing Paul for a max contract will be impossible. Will he accept less money? I can only speculate. It’s pretty rare for players to give up any money at all when they’re at the prime of their careers, and even rarer for them to do so to join a new team. And to join a team that’s just signed two players that are equal or (hugely?) inferior to you for less money? Well, it would be pretty surprising.
Everyone wants to win. But leaving 10s of millions of dollars on the table to do so, especially if your teammates aren’t doing the same, is pretty tough to stomach.
kevin
February 23, 2011
Phillip, isn’t that exactly what LeBron and Wade have done, leave 10’s of millions on the table for a chance to win? I suppose it’s all about what’s most important to you. LeBron and Wade don’t think the extra money is as important as winning a championship or two or three.
And they probably made the calculation they could make up some of that in endorsements. Going to NY certainly opens up the possibility of added endorsements, that aren’t available to players in smaller markets, no matter how good the team is. How many commercials have you seen Tim Duncan in?
Matt
February 23, 2011
Can’t wait to see the quick thoughts on the Dwill trade.
Philip
February 23, 2011
Kevin,
My point isn’t just one player who could have commanded a max contract left money on the table; it’s that all three did. Miller and Haslem could have commanded more money on the open market. And they’ve got three more rotation players (Arroyo, Dampier, and Z) who I believe are making the veteren’s minimum. Almost everyone is making a monetary sacrifice.
Were Paul to do the same, he’d be the only one making that sacrifice.
As for endorsements, according to SI (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/specials/fortunate50-2010/index.3.html), Duncan’s making 3.5 mil, which is hardly shabby, but still far below what a lot of players are making. But I don’t think it’s just market size. Why is Paul Pierce, a better player on a better team in a larger market making less money than Melo? Why is Yao making more than Pau? There’s legitimate answers to these questions beyond market size and how good the players are.
One thing about Duncan – his personality doesn’t scream “sell shoes!”
Zack
February 23, 2011
I’m a little confused here; on your table Gallinari’s WP48 is listed as 0.038 and Chandler’s as 0.110, but on the automated wins produced site their numbers are reversed.
dberri
February 23, 2011
Zack,
It depends on how positions are assigned. I have Wilson Chandler at SF and Dre places him at PF. Gallinari is reversed (I think).
todd2
February 23, 2011
Billups is going to compromise the Knicks transition game/perimeter defense unless they end up using a point guard-by-committee approach. Corey Brewer may benefit from D’Antoni’s system; he’s rangy and can run. The rest of the deal looks like throwaways. The Knicks still need more size, speed and depth.
diehardNFFLbarnone
April 21, 2011
Chris Paul is not going to play for the Knicks for any amount unless they can find some quality role players (with > 10 WP combined) considering what he’s been through the last three years in New Orleans – for instance, convincing David West and Marc Gasol or some similar combination of players to both take the veterans’ mininum – good luck with that! I will personally enjoy watching the Knicks lose in the first round of the playoffs every year for the next decade while the Nets get to enjoy having Deron Williams/Chris Paul & Dwight Howard in their primes.