Here is Billy King – the Nets general manager – commenting on the Nets acquisition of Deron Williams:“I feel Deron Williams is the best point guard in the NBA. And when you want to try to win you need a point guard and a center, and I think we have two of the best.”
Okay, Brook Lopez is not really a great center. Last December I wondered why Lopez was not part of all the packages the Nets put together in an effort to acquire Carmelo Anthony. And now his current WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes] is -0.068.
This short post, though, isn’t about rehashing the problems with Lopez. I want to talk briefly about the idea that Deron Williams is the best point guard in the game.
The following table compares Deron Williams to Devin Harris and Chris Paul.
Williams is replacing Harris in New Jersey. And as one can see, Williams offers more than Harris. The big difference is that Williams is a much more efficient scorer. Consequently, Williams offers – across 3,000 minutes – about six more wins than Harris.
Currently the Nets are on pace to win about 24 games, and that puts the Nets firmly in the lottery. With Williams, the Nets would be on pace to win about 30 games. That is enough to… okay, Nets are still a lottery team. And since the Nets had to give up Derrick Favors to make this happen, fans of the Nets should still think there team has improved. But the team hasn’t improved very much.
Now what if the Nets actually acquired the best point guard? Yes, that would be Chris Paul. CP3 doesn’t just shoot efficiently (like Williams). Paul also rebounds, grabs steals, and avoids turnovers. Consequently, Paul produces many more wins.
In fact, it appears the difference between Paul and Williams is bigger than the difference between Williams and Harris. In other words, it appears the difference between Williams and the point guard the Nets had is smaller than the difference between Williams and the actual best point guard in the NBA.
And all that means that the assessment of Billy King appears to be a little bit off. But that doesn’t mean the Nets aren’t a bit better today. And that means the Nets lottery pick, which is going to Utah this year, might not be as good as it looked yesterday (but I still think it could be pretty good).
Of course just getting a lottery pick doesn’t guarantee that you will get a productive player. But the Jazz have a good chance of missing the playoffs now, so they might be getting two lottery picks (and yes, that isn’t a guarantee of anything either).
– DJ
P.S. My hope is to post more on the two big trades this week from the perspective of the Jazz and Nuggets. Look for these posts in the next few days.
Wages of Wins Journal 
Schermeister
February 24, 2011
I think the Jazz got very good value, now it is up to them to make the picks work for them. I would guess the NJ pick is gonna land somewhere between 7-10. The GS pick could also easily be a lottery pick too, I beleive it is protected if under 7th pic?
Derrick favors seems like he has a lot of upside and seems to be doing well for a 19 year old. Decent rebounding etc.
But the jazz I think are gonna be a bit of bad spot since they are going to suck for the next 2 years probably. And though they should have a lot of money coming off the books (ak47 and okur) in the next couple years, I have a hard time seeing them make a play for a big time free agent.
If they had D Will I thought they coulda grabbed maybe a good SG and SF and be a good team next year.
YehYeh
February 24, 2011
You’re forgetting that basketball is a team sport. Individual stats are nice, but don’t come near to telling the whole story. The Nets have been in need of an an orchestrator since Vince Carter. Now they have one. That should be your angle. How much better will the team be with leadership?
Jerry
February 24, 2011
table doesn’t show
Shawn Ryan
February 24, 2011
-YehYeh
Oh, DWill’s leadership factor per 48 minutes (LF48*) of +0.112 will be a big difference maker for the Nets!
*This stat is totally fake
Max
February 24, 2011
The more important thing Dr. Berri left out is injuries. Chris Paul is by far a better point guard on a per-minute basis, but it’s not clear how many minutes he has left in his career. He apparently has the same bone-on-bone condition that has sidelined Brandon Roy this year. If this ends his career in the next few seasons, it does not matter how much better he is than Williams.
marparker
February 24, 2011
Here’s a thought. Efficient guards that asisst at a high rate tend to lift everyone’s offensive rating. I can see the Nets becoming an above average offensive team. However, I dont think he can have much effect on their defensive rating.
I think the Nets efficiency going forward with this team should be somewhere around -2 which would be a little better than 30 wins.
szr
February 24, 2011
Okay, slightly off topic, but I need to vent – Washington just traded away one of its productive players for a bunch of unproductive ones.
Ugh.
Does anyone else sometimes wish they could go back to the time before they learned about statistics and began applying it to sports? A time when a fan could be perfectly confident that “leadership” and “upside” were going to right the tilting ship?
Alien Human Hybrid
February 24, 2011
Am I the only one that doesn’t see a table?
dberri
February 24, 2011
I have looked at this post in both Explorer and Firefox and I see the table comparing Williams-Harris-Paul. Is anyone else not seeing the table?
Andrew
February 24, 2011
I can’t see the table either. (Explorer)
robbieomalley
February 24, 2011
Szr,
Fellow Wizards fan here. I don’t see how this trade is a bad one for the Wizards. Bibby is not as good as Hinrich but he is cheaper. They pick up a free first round pick along with Crawford (hasn’t done much but who knows he’s just a rookie). It’s not like Hinrich was a building block for this team or even that good. Also I want the Wizards to play worse players so they can lose and get more lottery balls. Why would you want them to win games this year?
Ed
February 24, 2011
I use Chrome and can see the table just fine.
One other point, not mentioned in the post….Williams tends to be healthier than Harris and therefore logs more minutes. Harris’ career high for minutes played in season is 2494. Williams has topped that 4 times.
Italian Stallion
February 24, 2011
>>Here’s a thought. Efficient guards that asisst at a high rate tend to lift everyone’s offensive rating. <<
I agree with this.
The eFG% on assisted shots is higher than on unassisted shots.
The biggest problem is going to be resigning him.
bags fly free
February 24, 2011
off topic, celtics have just performed a highway robbery with their trade, are you kidding me haha, what was OKC thinking? finally they have a healthy and young back up for Pierce, and Kristic is so much better than perkins.
marparker
February 24, 2011
IS,
I think this was an awful trade for NJN. If the goal is to field a team of above average players the Nets just let 2(with potential for 2 more) go for 1 guy who is not signed for a very long time.
Now, I believe the average wp48 of an NBA starter is around .15. Using that number they gave up nothing concrete for something conrete. But they gave up the potential to put anything worthwhile around there 1 good starter, unless they think they can sign Williams and sign better free agents since it seems the Big Russian has 0 interest in building through the draft.
Evan
February 24, 2011
i can’t see the table
robbieomalley
February 24, 2011
BFF,
Are you trolling?
Andrew
February 24, 2011
bags fly free –
OKC got rid of two players who were producing in the negative range and were playing lots of minutes for a more or less average center. Why is it the Celtics got the better of that deal?
bags fly free
February 24, 2011
how am i trollin? celtics needed a back up sf for pierce and kristic is an upgrade over perkins, even more considering perkins got injured once again, and nate robinson sucks, this is an awesome trade for c’s and maybe green wasnt as good as he can in OKC but they were playing him out of position
stephanieg
February 24, 2011
I don’t see a table and I’m very interested in how Chris Paul having 1.3 more steals, 2% more TS, 1 less TO, and 0.4 less fouls per game puts him head and shoulders above Deron. Their rebounding and assists are identical (Deron 0.1 rebound better). The TS% is nice, but it’s varied over the last couple of years by 2-3% and CP3 has always had a much higher WP than Deron (and CP3’s best year he had 3 to/gm) so that can’t be it.
Italian Stallion
February 24, 2011
marparker,
I think Prokhorov is taking the same kind of gamble that Donnie Walsh took when he gave away Jordan Hill and 1st round picks just to get rid of the Jeffries salary one year earlier. The idea is that if you have one all star, another one is more likely to sign with you later as a FA. The Knicks wanted space for two.
The Nets have the rest of this year and part of next year to both convince Williams to stay and eventually find the second star willing to play with him. Then they’ll have 2 major pieces and theoretically it should be easier to get the role players after that. If they don’t pull it off, they are screwed.
I don’t really know the value of picks vs. established stars. I’ve never seen the stats on that. It does seem like they gave up a lot. Then again, IMO he’s one of the best PGs in the league.
Italian Stallion
February 24, 2011
BFF,
I don’t know about the Celtics, but I made a bet on the Oklahoma City Thunder (among others) earlier in the season to win the championship at pretty long odds. I’m pretty sure my chances just improved significantly as a result of this trade. I’m also pretty sure I could hedge the other way and lock in a bigger profit now.
Mo
March 8, 2011
Well you know Billy HAS to say his point guard is the best.
Max, Chris Paul had the torn portion of his meniscus removed. Not the entire thing. He is not playing with bone on bone. At least not now he isn’t. I can’t predict the future but people need to stop assuming all injuries or even surgeries are the same.
Mo
March 8, 2011
Also, Chris Paul has always had better stats than Deron Williams so I don’t know why they get mad and try to throw health into it. If Paul isn’t healthy, you’d really be bothered by the stats if he were. LOL.