Here are two non-controversial statements:
- LaMarcus Aldridge did not play well enough to be an All-Star his first three years in the league [2006-07 to 2008-09].
- LaMarcus Aldridge did not play well enough to be an All-Star in 2009-10.
This past week, though, LeBron James called LaMarcus Aldridge the “biggest snub in All-Star history.”
So what’s changed?
In 2009-10 – when I think most people didn’t think Aldridge was an All-Star – Aldridge averaged 17.9 points per game. This mark ranked 31st in the NBA.
This season he ranks 14th in scoring per game with 22.4 points per game.
Could it be that this is all that has changed? Let’s look at all the numbers.
The table above compares Aldridge to an average power forward. As one can see, Aldridge is slightly above average with respect to shooting efficiency and somewhat below average with respect to rebounding and assists. Prior to this year, he was also below average with respect to getting to the free throw line and steals (for the latter he is now just average).
When we compare 20o9-10 to 2010-11, we see a small improvement in shooting efficiency from the field and the line; as well as an improved ability to get to the free throw line. Aldridge is also blocking more shots and committing fewer fouls. When we put all these stats together we see that Aldridge’s WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes] – at the power forward position – has increased from 0.118 to 0.151.
What does this mean? Aldridge has played 2,552 minutes this season. If he played his entire season at power forward (and he hasn’t), then he would have produced 8.0 wins thus far this season. What if Aldridge still had a 0.118 WP48? Then he would have produced 6.3 wins. So Aldridge’s improvement is only worth 1.7 additional wins (or 2.2 wins over an entire 82 game season).
Of course, LeBron – and others who think Aldridge is an All-Star – are not looked at WP48. What they are primarily looking at is scoring. This season, Aldridge has already scored at least 30 points in ten different games. And he has scored 40 points or more twice. Last season Aldridge only scored more than 30 points twice; and he never scored more than 32 points in a single game. So Aldridge is clearly scoring more.
But that is primarily because he is taking more shots from the field. As we have seen with Carmelo Anthony, Allen Iverson, etc…; just taking more shots doesn’t really help a team win more games. Shots are primarily taken from teammates. In the case of Aldridge, one suspects he has benefitted from the injury to Roy. With Roy missing games, and taking fewer shots when he does play, Aldridge is seeing more shot attempts. And these additional shot attempts have led to more scoring and more attention from people like LeBron James. But when we look at all the statistics, we are not seeing many more wins.
Thankfully for the Blazers, LeBron is not the only one who isn’t evaluating NBA talent perfectly. Michael Jordan believes that Derrick Rose is clearly the MVP this season:
“MVP of the season. He deserves it. He’s playing that well. He deserves it. Without a doubt. And if he doesn’t get it, now he’ll see how I felt a lot of years.”
As noted a couple of weeks ago, Rose – like Aldridge – also benefits from taking more shots. If Rose took fewer shots, he probably wouldn’t be an MVP candidate (and as noted, the Bulls probably won’t be any worse off with Rose shooting less per game).
One might suspect that an NBA owner – and past GM of an NBA team – would not be fooled by a player taking more shots. But Michael Jordan has not exactly shown us that he can identify the most productive players in the game.
For example, consider the Gerald Wallace trade (see, there was a reason for the Derrick Rose detour). As noted a couple of days ago, the Wallace trade hasn’t really helped the Bobcats. On the flip side, though, it has helped the Blazers.
Here is what this entire team looks like after 64 games (remember, Aldridge has spent time at center so his WP48 mark is lower than what was reported above).
The Blazers have won 37 games this far. The team’s efficiency differential of 0.97 – and corresponding Wins Produced — is consistent with a team that should have won about 34 games.
When we look at performance in 2009-10, though, we see a team that should have won about 43 games. In other words, the Blazers should have the 4th best record in the West. And in terms of efficiency differential, the team’s projected mark of 5.4 would only be topped by the San Antonio Spurs and LA Lakers in the West. In sum, the Blazers – based on last year’s performance – should be contenders in the West.
When we look at how performance has changed, we can see three players – Brandon Roy, Nicolas Batum, and Dante Cunningham — who are responsible for the Blazers failure to contend. Roy has been hurt, so it is easy to understand his performance decline.
As for Batum and Cunningham, the trade for Wallace can help resolve both issues. Thankfully for the Blazers, Jordan took Cunningham in the trade for Wallace. So a player who was hurting the team is now playing elsewhere. Furthermore, Wallace and Batum essentially play a similar role. Batum has averaged more than 30 minutes per game this season, but has played less than 30 minutes per contest across the last three games. So if Wallace is taking minutes from Batum (not sure that is the case), then this trade also addresses part of the problem with Batum’s lack of production.
So are the Blazers back to being contenders?
With Wallace added to the roster, the team now has above average players at every position:
- PG: Andre Miller [0.206 WP48]
- SG: Rudy Fernandez [0.131 WP48]
- SF: Gerald Wallace [0.247 WP48 in 190 minutes as a Blazer]
- PF: LaMarcus Aldridge [0.151 WP48]
- C: Marcus Camby [0.322 WP48]
The team really doesn’t have much depth behind Camby and Aldridge in the frontcourt (Batum and/or Wallace can play the PF if necessary). Furthermore, the back-up point guard position isn’t helping (Patrick Mills is the problem here). And Roy is still hurt.
Still…the Wallace trade clearly helps this team. And the price seems quite low (some non-lottery first round picks and Joel Przybilla — who is older and not entirely healthy).
So although Aldridge is not quite as good as people believe, the Blazers look like a team that could make some noise in the playoffs. At least, if they somehow get to draw the Mavericks, they might have a chance.
– DJ
Wages of Wins Journal 
bags fly free
March 11, 2011
NBA.com lists Aldridge at 8.8 rpg, and average PF gets 10.6 rpg? am i missing something? seems too high
Schermeister
March 11, 2011
Kevin love biggest snub in history. End of story. I dont even know how possible to overlook, he almost scores as much as aldridge.
Oh and then twice as many rebounds and 53 double doubles in a row!
Italian Stallion
March 12, 2011
IMO Jordan is probably somewhat biased in his evaluation of Rose because he’s also a Chicago Bull.
He definitely took back Cunningham and Przybilla because they are expiring contracts. That had nothing to do with talent evaluation. He’s clearly trying to cut payroll and rebuild the team with draft picks. He may not have gotten back enough “pick value” for Wallace, but IMO he’s doing the correct thing for that team. The team was capped out, going nowhere, and losing money. But given his track record with drafting, he better hire some help in that department.
I don’t think anyone WANTS Dallas in the playoffs. They were absolutely woeful in that stretch when both Dirk and Butler went down at the same time. If you exclude those games, their point differential is about 2 points higher. That puts them squarely in the mix with the best teams . Even though other teams have also had key injuries, they didn’t play as poorly. It’s hard for me to believe the rest of the season was the aberration and that the injuries weren’t the reason they were that dreadful.
I like Portland a little also. If they can stay healthy and get Wallace to score as efficiently as he has in past seasons, he may bring more to the table for Portland than he was for for Charlotte this year.
Andrew
March 12, 2011
Do you know what is going on with Arturo’s Wins Produced site? Will it be up and running again soon?
Lior Silberman
March 12, 2011
bags fly free: the numbers are quoted above are per 48 minutes the player plays. So, the average PF gets 10.6 rpg per 48 minutes played, but since the average PF doesn’t play 48 minutes per game, he gets less rebounds per game.
Philip
March 12, 2011
bff, it’s per 48 minute stats.
Schermeister, Kevin Love was an all-star this year.
brgulker
March 12, 2011
It’s amazing to consider that MJ might not even understand how good he was relative to players like Rose (and might as well throw Kobe into that for kicks). While he’s never struck me as a humble man, it’s surprising to me to see him compare Rose to himself, when that’s not even close.
Schermeister
March 12, 2011
Kevin Love was a replacement only, did not get voted in by fans OR coaches.
Really just random luck that a big man position (yao Ming, maybe not so random) was out
I would count that as a snub, imo
h8rade
March 12, 2011
LaMarcus Aldridge has played like two completely different players this season. The first played the first 26 games as the second option behind a wounded and ineffective Brandon Roy, and averaged these per 48 numbers: 22.8 points, 10 rebs, 2.4 asts, 1.4 blks on 45.18 EFG% (50.15 TS%).
The second has played the second 39 games as the first option after Roy sat out the majority of games these latter games. This Aldridge has averaged the following per 48 numbers: 29.2 points, 10.9 rebs, 2.5 asts, 1.6 blks on 52.3 EFG% (57.32 TS%). This doesn’t appear to simply be a matter of scoring more because he’s getting more shots; he’s scoring more and much more efficiently, and scoring more inside the paint particularly on alley oops.
In other words, LA1 was an unremarkable snub from the ASG; LA2 has been a superb player–not sure if it’s accurate to say the biggest snub in ASG history but certainly a huge snub and a more deserving player than many who did make the squad this year.
Greyberger
March 12, 2011
LaMarcus Aldridge’s usage has bumped up from 24% career to 26% this year. His minutes are up from 35 a game career to 40 a game this year. His shooting efficiency is at a career high despite the increased workload.
WP48 is not impressed that LMA is taking on more offense and becoming more efficient at the same time, but some people are.
He’s a great offensive rebounder. WP48 considers offensive and defensive rebounds to add the same value, but a lot of people disagree. LMA’s not so great at defensive rebounding, but since he’s always been paired with titans of the defensive glass like Camby and Przybilla maybe that shouldn’t be surprising.
As a Spurs fan, the Grizzlies and the Blazers are the teams I least want to see end up with that eight seed. Aldridge is a big part of that.
Greyberger
March 12, 2011
Aldridge posted a 21.2% defensive rebound rate in the games last year before Marcus Camby was acquired, and 14.8% in the games after. This year Camby is grabbing 36% (!!!) of potential defensive rebounds when he’s in the game. These are (believe it or not) things to consider when evaluating Aldridge’s defensive rebounding game.
Really?
March 12, 2011
I stumble (no pun intended) across this site every once in a while, and usually don’t stay long because it is a bit of an echo chamber…WP48 is not terribly predictive of future performance (which you guys dismiss as “not the point”) nor does it seem to stay consistent when players change teams, so in what way would it ever be useful (beyond overvaluing Landry Fields)?
You have to admit it’s a bit laughable when stat geeks who claim not to watch games and decline to put anything real on the line by making predictions act as if their knowledge of the game of basketball or the evaluation of talent is somehow greater than those of Lebron James or Michael Jordan.
It’s nice to “challenge conventional wisdom,” but when your results consistently fly in the face of nearly everyone else’s, the scientific thing to do is tweak your hypothesis and test again rather than simply retreat to a corner and proclaim quietly that the world doesn’t understand you.
marparker
March 12, 2011
Really?,
Wow, I just wanted to say that I don’t think I’ve ever read a more incorect post. No time to go into detail so, I guess you can file my post under pointless.
h8rade
March 12, 2011
@really – Yes, MJ’s ability to scout other players is legendary. Look at all those great drafts and trades he’s executed as GM and owner. Kwame Brown, trading away Rip Hamilton for Stackhouse…
And of course, LBJ’s also fantastic at evaluating other players. Look at his insistence on making sure that the Miami three did everything in their power including giving up substantial dollars in order to create space for them to go out and get Mike Miller.
Mike
March 12, 2011
@Really?
Proof please! (The WP48 correlation when changing teams is 0.74. Look At Marcin Gortat for a classic example).
Again proof please :) Who doesn’t watch what games? (Berri watches one a night he says)
Hahaha I’m all for trolling, but man, you went with Jordan as your go to talent evaluator? Jordan? Michael Jordan? GOAT as a player, second rate as a GM, whose only GM achievement was getting Michael Jordan to suit up and play again for the Wiz!
Being a great talent evaluator or coach != to being a great player. Pat Riley, Phil Jackson, Greg Popovich case rested your honour :P
Austin
March 12, 2011
I was going to come on here and talk about Aldridge’s “two seasons” with Roy and without, but h8rade did that for me. Great post, and calculating WP48 on that split would be very interesting.
CowHideGlobe
March 17, 2011
Early in the season, in like a two week period, the Blazers suffered a string of embarrassing road defeats to the bottom feeders in the eastern Conference, they learned that Oden was done yet again for another year, that Roy–the team’s only all-star–was going in for surgery and was possibly done for his career, and Camby was injured shortly after that stretch. Those were depressing days in the Rose City; the Blazers were a mirror of the environment in which they played–continuos gray skies and and never-ending drizzle.
The Blazers looked beaten. Finished. Down for the count. However, it was precisely at that bleakest moment that Aldridge#2–accurately described by h8rade above–stepped up and had some MONSTER games. Not just scoring, but doing so efficiently, while anchoring some good team defense and upping his rebounds. I think that moment was lost on the author of this piece, and possibly might explain James’s slightly over-the-top quote cited above.