The following is from Andres (Dre) Alvarez.
Were you surprised by Dallas beating LA? For most people — including the Lakers — surprise is the right word. But Arturo Galletti — the only person between the Wages of Wins Smackdown and Truehoop Smackdown that had Dallas winning this series — was clearly not surprised. Most people, though, didn’t think Dallas would win. So what the heck happened?
Series at a Glance
Table 1: 2011 Los Angeles Lakers Round 2 vs. Dallas Mavericks
| Player | Pos | G | MP | MPG | WP48 | WP |
| Andrew Bynum | 5.0 | 4 | 134 | 33.5 | 0.072 | 0.2 |
| Derek Fisher | 1.0 | 4 | 123 | 30.8 | 0.078 | 0.2 |
| Lamar Odom | 3.8 | 4 | 117 | 29.3 | 0.082 | 0.2 |
| Pau Gasol | 4.4 | 4 | 142 | 35.5 | 0.068 | 0.2 |
| Shannon Brown | 2.5 | 4 | 68 | 17.0 | 0.071 | 0.1 |
| Matt Barnes | 3.1 | 4 | 49 | 12.3 | 0.000 | 0.0 |
| Ron Artest | 2.9 | 3 | 91 | 30.3 | 0.000 | 0.0 |
| Joe Smith | 4.0 | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | -0.600 | -0.1 |
| Kobe Bryant | 2.0 | 4 | 148 | 37.0 | -0.032 | -0.1 |
| Luke Walton | 4.0 | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | -1.200 | -0.1 |
| Trey Johnson | 1.0 | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | -0.960 | -0.1 |
| Steve Blake | 1.1 | 4 | 69 | 17.3 | -0.139 | -0.2 |
| Grand Total | 3 | 39 | 960 | 24.6 | 0.005 | 0.1 |
In four games, the Lakers barely managed to eke out 1/10 of a win and not a single player was able to get into the average range (WP48 of 0.100 or higher) The reigning Finals MVP (that would be Kobe) put up negative numbers, the offseason additions of Barnes and Blake fell flat, and the dominant front court of Odom, Gasol and Bynum fizzled. Both by the numbers and any other account the Lakers utterly collapsed. What about their opponents?
Table 2: 2011 Dallas Mavericks Playoffs Round 2 vs. Los Angeles Lakers
| Player | Pos | G | MP | MPG | WP48 | WP |
| Dirk Nowitzki | 4.0 | 4 | 150 | 37.5 | 0.352 | 1.1 |
| Jason Terry | 1.8 | 4 | 124 | 31.0 | 0.426 | 1.1 |
| Jose Barea | 1.5 | 4 | 72 | 18.0 | 0.267 | 0.4 |
| Peja Stojakovic | 2.7 | 4 | 101 | 25.3 | 0.190 | 0.4 |
| Tyson Chandler | 5.0 | 4 | 125 | 31.3 | 0.154 | 0.4 |
| Brendan Haywood | 5.0 | 4 | 62 | 15.5 | 0.155 | 0.2 |
| Jason Kidd | 1.0 | 4 | 129 | 32.3 | 0.074 | 0.2 |
| Brian Cardinal | 3.9 | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0.960 | 0.1 |
| Shawn Marion | 3.3 | 4 | 122 | 30.5 | 0.039 | 0.1 |
| Corey Brewer | 2.7 | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0.000 | 0.0 |
| Ian Mahinmi | 5.0 | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0.000 | 0.0 |
| DeShawn Stevenson | 2.5 | 4 | 52 | 13 | -0.185 | -0.2 |
| Grand Total | 3 | 41 | 960 | 23.4 | 0.190 | 3.8 |
The Mavericks had an almost perfect second round. Their team average WP48 was 0.190 (an 82 win team would have a WP48 of 0.200). And significant producers were found everywhere. Dirk Nowitzki played like a star, Jason Terry led the charge off the bench, Barea and Peja lit up the Lakers from the outside, while Chandler and Haywood managed to contain Los Angeles’ powerful front court (while playing pretty well themselves). Yes, Marion and Kidd didn’t have terrific series, but they really didn’t need to given how well everyone else was playing.
Nothing is as it Seems
Calling both Dallas and Los Angeles contenders to end the season would not have been much of a stretch. After all these teams were the 2nd and 3rd seeds in the West, both had 55+ wins, a former MVP, and even some Finals experience. It is certainly not a surprise to have one of these teams win head to head. What is surprising is to have one team play essentially perfect and other play completely terrible. Let’s take a look back at all the players that played in the playoffs for both teams (I limited this to players with at least 100 minutes in the playoffs). To make life even easier I cut up the season into bite sized portions; before the All-Star Break, after the All-Star Break, the 1st round of the playoffs, the first three games of the 2nd round and the 4th game of the 2nd round.
Table 3: Lakers WP48 2011 Chart
| Player | Pre AS | Post AS | Rnd 1 | DAL 1-3 | DAL 4 | Total |
| Andrew Bynum | 0.194 | 0.471 | 0.279 | 0.186 | -0.310 | 0.312 |
| Pau Gasol | 0.275 | 0.253 | 0.081 | 0.044 | 0.141 | 0.254 |
| Lamar Odom | 0.265 | 0.204 | 0.092 | 0.145 | -0.267 | 0.237 |
| Kobe Bryant | 0.211 | 0.176 | 0.122 | 0.130 | -0.519 | 0.189 |
| Matt Barnes | 0.206 | 0.154 | 0.099 | -0.267 | 0.369 | 0.182 |
| Ron Artest | 0.027 | 0.077 | 0.220 | 0.000 | -0.171 | 0.054 |
| Shannon Brown | 0.052 | -0.051 | 0.059 | -0.104 | 0.417 | 0.029 |
| Steve Blake | 0.025 | 0.021 | 0.232 | -0.092 | -0.267 | 0.025 |
| Derek Fisher | -0.006 | -0.039 | 0.114 | 0.098 | 0.000 | -0.002 |
| Total | 0.149 | 0.154 | 0.145 | 0.053 | -0.140 | 0.148 |
At a glance, going into round 2 the Lakers looked like a very strong and consistent team with their main players averaging around 0.150 WP48 (a 62 win team). This is slightly misleading however. At the start of the season Gasol and Odom were playing like Superstars and Kobe and Barnes were playing like Stars. After the All-Star break all of these players saw a decline. However the team numbers stayed the same in large part because Andrew Bynum was playing at an amazing level.
In the first round against the Hornets the Lakers kept up their team level of play. However, Andrew Bynum’s superhuman play had disappeared. Odom and Gasol had ceased being top big men in the league and were playing a little less than average. Kobe was playing a little above average but certainly not at star level. In sum, the terrifying four-headed beast of the Lakers was not playing well at all.
Of course, this was hidden due to the uncharacteristically good play of Artest and Blake. Going into battle against the Mavericks might have seemed troubling to Los Angeles fans (and again, was an issue for Arturo), and that troubled feeling proved to be correct.
The Lakers completely disappeared against the Mavericks. Bynum, Odom and Bryant managed to play above average in the first three games but nowhere near their regular season levels. Blake and Artest, the saviors of round 1 vanished and Gasol’s slump got even worse. In the deciding game 4, Gasol, Barnes and Brown showed up (kind of) but the rest of the team was gone.
Table 4: Mavericks WP48 2011 Chart
| Player | Pre AS | Post AS | Rnd 1 | LAL 1-3 | LAL 4 | Total |
| Tyson Chandler | 0.285 | 0.283 | 0.207 | 0.147 | 0.185 | 0.280 |
| Jason Kidd | 0.244 | 0.220 | 0.355 | 0.047 | 0.000 | 0.242 |
| Dirk Nowitzki | 0.170 | 0.194 | 0.124 | 0.366 | 0.450 | 0.190 |
| Shawn Marion | 0.136 | 0.276 | 0.176 | 0.049 | 0.000 | 0.181 |
| Peja Stojakovic | 0.155 | 0.088 | 0.086 | -0.068 | 0.800 | 0.120 |
| Brendan Haywood | 0.038 | 0.154 | 0.025 | 0.107 | 0.282 | 0.077 |
| Jason Terry | 0.029 | 0.088 | 0.137 | 0.291 | 0.960 | 0.071 |
| Jose Barea | 0.047 | 0.099 | -0.156 | 0.213 | 0.533 | 0.062 |
| DeShawn Stevenson | 0.029 | -0.138 | -0.080 | 0.000 | -0.533 | -0.005 |
| Total | 0.136 | 0.171 | 0.133 | 0.140 | 0.340 | 0.153 |
The Maverick’s story makes a little more sense. Going into the All-Star break the Mavericks were a good team with a WP48 of 0.136 (55 win team). After the All-Star Break, though, they played like a 70 win team. Unlike the Lakers there weren’t a lot of red flags here. Dirk came back from injury and played better (and played more minutes). Caron Butler went down with injury and Marion took over his minutes and made the most of them (so Butler’s injury really didn’t matter). Chandler and Kidd kept up their solid play and the Mavericks looked scary going into the playoffs.
In round 1 Dirk and Marion came back down to earth. Chandler played a bit worse but luckily Jason Kidd and Jason Terry stepped up their games (and the Mavericks played stellar ball to close out the Blazers in 6 games).
Against the Lakers is where things get fun. Nowitzki, Terry and Barea played at levels around twice their regular season numbers. Chandler and Kidd dropped even more but with Barea, Terry and Dirk tearing it up it wasn’t a huge hit. In the deciding game, Stojakovic and Terry decided to have amazing games. Barea and Dirk played even better and the Laker’s hope of a threepeat ended with a blowout.
Closing Thoughts
- Some may come out of this with the claim that Dallas wanted it more and their players turned it on as a result. This may be true (remember four games is a very small sample size). However, if Dirk had powers to up his game to Superstar status, why not do it earlier in the season or even in the first round against Portland? Similarly if Gasol had some weakness against tough situations, why didn’t he crumble the last two years as he led his team to two titles?
- This was likely a fluke. Barea, Stojakovic and Terry put up insane numbers nowhere close to their regular season averages. It seems unlikely this will happen every game as the playoffs continue or even another game in the playoffs.
- Kobe is not clutch and he is getting older. In 2008 Kobe played one of the worst game 6s in Finals history (although not as bad as Jason Terry’s in 2006). At the end of the Laker’s playoffs this season, Kobe was the worst player in the game. Kobe is a very good player but it is a myth to assume he has some killer instinct that makes him win more often than other players. I am curious if this game will help people remember that or if it will be conveniently forgotten.
With the dust settled the Lakers had some bad luck and a good team destroyed their finals hopes. It’s hard to feel too sorry for a team coming off two titles. Similarly I want to feel happy and optimistic for Dallas, but a similar story may be awaiting them.
-Dre
P.S. The Wages of Wins Network is doing a wrap up of every playoff series this season following Arturo’s 30-16-1 from last season. While some may be timelier than others (Orlando and Atlanta is still on the queue) you can read the ones we have completed here:
- Dre of Nerd Numbers with Bulls-Pacers
- Dre of Nerd Numbers with Thunder-Nuggets
- Mosi Platt of the Miami Heat Index with Heats-76ers
- Arturo of Arturo’s Silly Little Stats with Knicks-Celtics
- Arturo of Arturo’s Silly Little Stats with Spurs-Grizzlies
Additionally Arturo has been keeping track of advanced metrics for each game. You can find those on his site. I won’t list them all, but here is the one the day the Lakers fell
brgulker
May 10, 2011
Good stuff, Dre!
Thomas
May 11, 2011
Having Pau Gasol as “productive” and Kobe as “negative” just shows that this stat is completely wrong. Through the 1st 3 games, Dirk scored on Gasol over 86% of the time (19-22) and Gasol’s disappearing acts down the stretch were so obvious that even the Laker home crowd started booing him.
I will never understand why you people put so much faith in a stat that so wildly overrates a big man’s contribution to the game and completely ignore a big man’s negatives. A guard’s large scoring contributions are all offset by missing large amounts of FGs but a big man playing no defense whatsoever, shooting a low %, not being an effective rebounder by % still register as a positive.
What a joke.
nerdnumbers
May 11, 2011
Thomas,
Thanks for reading my piece or at least attempting to read it. Through the first three games Gasol was well below average and Kobe was playing above average (although not fantastic) Kobe had a truly terrible game 4 (most would agree with that) which in a small sample size makes an outlier much larger, which is why I split the 2nd round into two parts. Gasol by the way managed to end the series below average (average is 0.100) and well below his normal levels.
So anyway thanks for agreeing with the point I made and insulting me for it. . . carry on!
Thanks for the shout out Ben and sorry about Monroe on All-Rookie. Are you going to do a piece on it?
jbrett
May 11, 2011
Nice article, Dre.
Do you, like me, anticipate that 99% of the off-season chatter will be about trading Bynum, Gasol, or Odom–the 3 best players they have? I expect the bulk of it will be demanding Bynum be traded for Howard–and I’d favor that, all else being even–but that would not help a fraction as much as upgrading at PG.
Most fans act as if they don’t understand that Kobe can’t be traded–literally. Even if he agreed to be traded, he can’t be traded, not with that contract. If a genie would let me wish away those two facts, I’d use the third to wish him traded to Philly for Iguodala–or better yet to NO for CP3. Hey, as long as we’re doing pipe dreams….
nerdnumbers
May 11, 2011
JBrett,
I agree with Dave that the playoffs are a terrible thing to use for decision making. The Lakers won 57 games this year the same as last. At the end of the season it would be easy to say “Well we need a PG, but Kobe is still strong and Pau,Bynum and Odom look great” but to wait until the end of the playoffs to say Pau needs to be traded is insane. That would be the same as if the Lakers had a 4 game skid in the regular season with Pau playing bad and decided to trade him as a result.
I think they may luck into Howard, which for the future is good. They will need to get him a PG because I can’t see Kobe sustaining his play and his play isn’s the same as other #2 options in league. That said Lakers are stuck with him. It’s a shame because he would have been a great trade piece in 2010 when he signed his contract. Everyone would have been outraged until the Lakers of course won another title :)
Alex M.
May 12, 2011
@Thomas: I love Wins Produced, although I agree with you somewhat in the sense that it overrates rebounders. I have no stats to cite to back up my feeling, but a lot seem to agree. STILL, I think it is better than most metrics in its consistency.
However, series’s like this make sad, and doubt. Predictive power fail somewhat (something that berri touts as an attribute).
Still, I believe if this metric was “mixed” with something like plus minus, and considered matchups, it would be better. I wish the professor would update it.
Evan
May 12, 2011
dude, small sample size. randomness exists. it’s totally bogus to say that the results of one playoff series validate or invalidate a model.
Schermeister
May 12, 2011
@Thomas
And Kobes and the other perimeter players are without fault on the 3 point shooters… Dirk is much harder draw defensively since most stats point to him being one of the best offensive players in the game. See Arturos or nerd numbers I believe
I watched the games and Kobes was just a complete bum on defense, just no effort at all. All Defensive team ya right. 3.2 rebounds per 38 minutes or so… thats horrible even for a 2 guard
And gasol was absolutely terrible in the playoffs, goes to show you that he is the key for that team
And it is a long standing belief even by the NBA GM’s and such that Big Men are the key piece to the game of basketball, that isnt particularly something new that this blog is stressing
nerdnumbers
May 12, 2011
Alex,
Your third paragraph brings up an interesting point. Even if Wins Produced is better than APM, wouldn’t just putting them together make the combined stronger? This isn’t bad thinking but consider this fun real world example (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kasparov_versus_the_World) A bunch of chess people teamed up to fight Kasparov. They still lost. Now consider another example. Kasparov is a great player. I’m an ok player (overstatement) What’s wrong with teaming us up? Wouldn’t we play better? The answer is only if I bring something to the table Kasparov doesn’t have. In terms of APM it really brings a lot of noise (randomness) so that’s similar to asking if a program that picked a random move 80% of the time and the best move 15% (oh and by the way you don’t know which is which) and Kasparov (who arguably picks the best move like 99% of the time) would do better. . . well no. . . they wouldn’t.
nerdnumbers
May 12, 2011
Evan,
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kasparov_versus_the_World
Arturo approached this in a very Quantum Physics approach. In short he didn’t definitely say Dallas would win in 6. He said of all the possibilities Dallas winning was most likely (54%, so not even that much) and of Dallas winning that Dallas winning in 6(roughly 21% of the time)
Really that’s the right way to approach prediction. And looking back the truth is that essentially EVERY outcome of the Dallas-Los Angeles series had a decent (at least 4% by the given numbers) chance of happening. Of course that would mean people listening to predictions would have to accept the fact that the prediction maker could miss the production but still have made the right call :)
Schermeister
May 12, 2011
I wanted to make another point about the lakers. Even though their 3 point defense was dismal there is no way you can bet on certain [players going 9-10 and 7-7 like they did in game 4. Most players wont hit anywhere near that mark or the mark that they hit over the series when they are wide open.
So I wouldnt be in complete panic mode if I was the lakers, although they are getting older
Daniel
May 12, 2011
Kobe’s no-show in game 4 has happened many times before– I still remember the 2003 playoffs fondly; the Lakers were swept by the Spurs and Kobe and Fisher were crying on the bench.