The next big event in the NBA is the draft. Over the next week I am hoping to post a few stories on the draft. And I want to start with something James Brocato posted a few weeks ago at Shut Up and Jam.
In looking at these numbers, keep in mind (as James notes) that there is a correlation between college performance and what we see in the NBA. But it is not a perfect correlation. So players who perform well in college may not perform well in the NBA. And those who do not play well in college, may play well in NBA. That being said, what we see in college often does indicate what we will see in the NBA. And that means that when you see a player with relatively poor numbers, a red flag should be raised in the minds of NBA decision-makers. After all, if a player didn’t perform in college, that might suggest he will struggle against the better player in the NBA.
Okay, enough of the cavaets. Here is the analysis from James.
The following table shows the Position Adjusted Win Score per 40 minutes (PAWS40) for the top 100 prospects for the 2011 NBA Draft (as ranked by DraftExpress). Win Score is a relatively simple player evaluation metric created by Dave Berri. Win Score is calculated by the following equation:
PTS + REB + STL + ½*BLK + ½*AST – FGA – ½*FTA – TO – ½*PF.
DraftExpress reports the raw win scores for every college basketball player. Position Adjusted Win Score is calculated by subtracting the average win score at the particular player’s position, then adding the overall average win score. Dave Berri has provided numbers for average win scores for college basketball players, but I came up with slightly different numbers.
However, while the numbers themselves are different, the position differences are nearly identical relatively. The important number for this table is 7.1, the Win Score of the average player. Thus, all players who have PAWS greater than 7.1 are above average, and all less than 7.1 are below average.
| DX Rank | Player | Age | Position | Height | Weight | Team | PAWS40 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyrie Irving | 19 | PG | 6’3″ | 190 | Duke | 13.6 |
| 2 | Derrick Williams | 19 | PF | 6’9″ | 250 | Arizona | 12.7 |
| 3 | Kemba Walker | 21 | PG | 6’1″ | 185 | Uconn | 10.6 |
| 5 | Brandon Knight | 19 | PG/SG | 6’3″ | 180 | Kentucky | 6.3 |
| 10 | Alec Burks | 19 | SG | 6’6″ | 195 | Colorado | 10.7 |
| 11 | Kawhi Leonard | 19 | SF | 6’7″ | 225 | SDSU | 13.8 |
| 12 | Marcus Morris | 21 | PF | 6’9″ | 230 | Kansas | 11.6 |
| 13 | Markieff Morris | 21 | PF | 6’10” | 240 | Kansas | 13.5 |
| 14 | Tristan Thompson | 20 | PF | 6’9″ | 230 | Texas | 8.1 |
| 15 | Tobias Harris | 18 | SF/PF | 6’8″ | 225 | Tennessee | 8.0 |
| 16 | Jordan Hamilton | 20 | SF | 6’9″ | 230 | Texas | 11.0 |
| 17 | Jimmer Fredette | 22 | PG | 6’2″ | 195 | BYU | 9.3 |
| 19 | Klay Thompson | 21 | SG/SF | 6’7″ | 205 | Washington St. | 8.6 |
| 20 | Chris Singleton | 21 | SF/PF | 6’9″ | 230 | Florida St. | 7.8 |
| 21 | Kenneth Faried | 21 | PF | 6’8″ | 225 | Morehead St. | 17.2 |
| 23 | Reggie Jackson | 21 | PG | 6’3″ | 208 | Boston College | 4.7 |
| 24 | Nolan Smith | 22 | PG/SG | 6’4″ | 190 | Duke | 9.4 |
| 25 | Tyler Honeycutt | 20 | SF | 6’8″ | 190 | UCLA | 7.3 |
| 26 | Travis Leslie | 21 | SG | 6’4″ | 205 | Georgia | 9.0 |
| 27 | Justin Harper | 21 | PF | 6’9″ | 230 | Richmond | 9.5 |
| 29 | Josh Selby | 20 | SG | 6’3″ | 195 | Kansas | 3.8 |
| 30 | Trey Thompkins | 20 | PF | 6’10” | 240 | Georgia | 11.3 |
| 31 | Jereme Richmond | 19 | SF | 6’7″ | 210 | Illinois | 6.0 |
| 32 | Darius Morris | 20 | PG/SG | 6’5″ | 190 | Michigan | 8.5 |
| 34 | JaJuan Johnson | 22 | PF | 6’10” | 220 | Purdue | 9.6 |
| 35 | Iman Shumpert | 20 | PG/SG | 6’6″ | 220 | G Tech | 10.0 |
| 36 | Charles Jenkins | 22 | PG/SG | 6’3″ | 220 | Hofstra | 11.8 |
| 37 | Nikola Vucevic | 20 | PF/C | 7’0″ | 260 | USC | 10.9 |
| 38 | Kyle Singler | 23 | SF/PF | 6’9″ | 225 | Duke | 5.9 |
| 39 | Keith Benson | 22 | PF/C | 6’11” | 220 | Oakland | 11.6 |
| 40 | Jimmy Butler | 21 | SF/PF | 6’8″ | 220 | Marquette | 9.9 |
| 41 | E’Twaun Moore | 22 | SG | 6’4″ | 191 | Purdue | 7.8 |
| 42 | Shelvin Mack | 21 | PG | 6’2″ | 210 | Butler | 7.1 |
| 43 | Malcolm Lee | 20 | SG | 6’5″ | 200 | UCLA | 5.6 |
| 44 | Norris Cole | 22 | PG | 6’2″ | 175 | Cleveland St. | 11.4 |
| 45 | Ben Hansbrough | 23 | PG/SG | 6’3″ | 203 | Notre Dame | 10.5 |
| 46 | Jordan Williams | 20 | C | 6’9″ | 250 | Maryland | 11.5 |
| 47 | Jon Leuer | 22 | PF | 6’11” | 225 | Wisconsin | 10.0 |
| 48 | David Lighty | 22 | SG | 6’6″ | 215 | Ohio St. | 7.3 |
| 49 | Demetri McCamey | 22 | PG | 6’3″ | 205 | Illinois | 8.4 |
| 50 | Isaiah Thomas | 22 | PG | 5’10” | 190 | Washington | 8.2 |
| 52 | Marshon Brooks | 22 | SG | 6’5″ | 195 | Providence | 9.9 |
| 53 | Andrew Goudelock | 22 | PG | 6’3″ | 200 | Charleston | 8.4 |
| 54 | Justin Holiday | 22 | SG/SF | 6’6″ | 185 | Washington | 8.9 |
| 55 | DeAndre Liggins | 23 | SG/SF | 6’6″ | 205 | Kentucky | 6.8 |
| 56 | Scotty Hopson | 21 | SG | 6’7″ | 205 | Tennessee | 4.3 |
| 57 | Chandler Parsons | 22 | SF | 6’10” | 220 | Florida | 10.7 |
| 58 | Malcolm Thomas | 22 | SF/PF | 6’9″ | 225 | SDSU | 10.6 |
| 60 | Greg Smith | 20 | C | 6’9″ | 250 | Fresno St. | 9.1 |
| 61 | Cory Joseph | 19 | PG/SG | 6’3″ | 185 | Texas | 7.6 |
| 64 | Rick Jackson | 21 | PF/C | 6’9″ | 240 | Syracuse | 11.7 |
| 65 | Jamie Skeen | 23 | PF | 6’8″ | 240 | VCU | 9.1 |
| 66 | Gilbert Brown | 23 | SG/SF | 6’6″ | 200 | Pittsburgh | 8.0 |
| 68 | Damian Saunders | 22 | SF/PF | 6’7″ | 205 | Duquesne | 10.0 |
| 72 | Jon Diebler | 22 | SG | 6’6″ | 200 | Ohio St. | 9.9 |
| 73 | Brad Wanamaker | 21 | PG/SG | 6’4″ | 210 | Pittsburgh | 8.9 |
| 74 | Vernon Macklin | 24 | PF | 6’9″ | 245 | Florida | 5.8 |
| 75 | Matthew Bryan-Amaning | 23 | PF | 6’9″ | 240 | Washington | 9.5 |
| 76 | Josh Harrellson | 22 | C | 6’10” | 275 | Kentucky | 11.8 |
| 77 | Willie Reed* | 21 | PF | 6’9″ | 220 | St. Louis | 10.4 |
| 78 | Gary Flowers | 25 | PF | 6’8″ | 214 | Southern Miss | 8.6 |
| 82 | Jacob Pullen | 21 | PG/SG | 6’0″ | 200 | Kansas St. | 7.2 |
| 83 | Chris Wright | 22 | SF/PF | 6’8″ | 214 | Dayton | 6.6 |
| 84 | LaceDarius Dunn | 23 | SG | 6’4″ | 190 | Baylor | 5.7 |
| 87 | Gary McGhee | 22 | C | 6’11” | 250 | Pittsburgh | 11.7 |
| 88 | Jerai Grant | 22 | PF | 6’8″ | 220 | Clemson | 11.4 |
| 89 | Lavoy Allen | 22 | PF | 6’9″ | 225 | Temple | 8.0 |
| 90 | D.J. Kennedy | 21 | SF | 6’6″ | 210 | St. John’s | 10.2 |
| 92 | Matt Howard | 22 | PF | 6’8″ | 225 | Butler | 9.6 |
| 93 | Kalin Lucas | 21 | PG | 6’0″ | 180 | Michigan St. | 4.7 |
| 95 | Durrell Summers | 22 | SG | 6’4″ | 195 | Michigan St. | 4.0 |
| 96 | Will Coleman | 22 | PF/C | 6’9″ | 250 | Memphis | 6.9 |
| 97 | Mike Davis | 22 | PF/C | 6’9″ | 210 | Illinois | 7.8 |
A couple of notes on these numbers:
– I didn’t include players who did not play at an American college in this post. I plan on evaluating those players in a future post.
– The numbers are adjusted for team pace.
– The numbers are NOT adjusted for strength of schedule. So be careful when looking at players from mid-major teams because their numbers are probably inflated
– The numbers are not perfect because I am not 100% sure every position is perfect. I did my best to estimate each player’s position.
– The positions listed for each player represent what Draft Express lists the player as, not necessarily what he played in college. For these numbers, I used the position the player played in college.
Here are the top 5 per position (position as in what is listed at Draft Express):
| Centers | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Age | Height | Weight | College | PAWS40 |
| Josh Harrellson | 22 | 6’10” | 275 | Kentucky | 11.8 |
| Gary McGhee | 22 | 6’11” | 250 | Pittsburgh | 11.7 |
| Keith Benson | 22 | 6’11” | 220 | Oakland | 11.6 |
| Jordan Williams | 20 | 6’9″ | 250 | Maryland | 11.5 |
| Nikola Vucevic | 20 | 7’0″ | 260 | USC | 10.9 |
| Power Forwards | |||||
| Kenneth Faried | 21 | 6’8″ | 225 | Morehead St. | 17.2 |
| Markieff Morris | 21 | 6’10” | 240 | Kansas | 13.5 |
| Derrick Williams | 19 | 6’9″ | 250 | Arizona | 12.7 |
| Rick Jackson | 21 | 6’9″ | 240 | Syracuse | 11.7 |
| Marcus Morris | 21 | 6’9″ | 230 | Kansas | 11.6 |
| Small Forwards | |||||
| Kawhi Leonard | 19 | 6’7″ | 225 | SDSU | 13.8 |
| Jordan Hamilton | 20 | 6’9″ | 230 | Texas | 11.0 |
| Chandler Parsons | 22 | 6’10” | 220 | Florida | 10.7 |
| D.J. Kennedy | 21 | 6’6″ | 210 | St. John’s | 10.2 |
| Damian Saunders | 22 | 6’7″ | 205 | Duquesne | 10.0 |
| Shooting Guards | |||||
| Alec Burks | 19 | 6’6″ | 195 | Colorado | 10.7 |
| Marshon Brooks | 22 | 6’5″ | 195 | Providence | 9.9 |
| Jon Diebler | 22 | 6’6″ | 200 | Ohio St. | 9.9 |
| Nolan Smith | 22 | 6’4″ | 190 | Duke | 9.4 |
| Travis Leslie | 21 | 6’4″ | 205 | Georgia | 9.0 |
| Point Guards | |||||
| Kyrie Irving | 19 | 6’3″ | 190 | Duke | 13.6 |
| Charles Jenkins | 22 | 6’3″ | 220 | Hofstra | 11.8 |
| Norris Cole | 22 | 6’2″ | 175 | Cleveland St. | 11.4 |
| Kemba Walker | 21 | 6’1″ | 185 | Uconn | 10.6 |
| Ben Hansbrough | 23 | 6’3″ | 203 | Notre Dame | 10.5 |
*Willie Reed did not play in the 10-11 season, so his 09-10 numbers are included.
While college production does not necessarily predict NBA production, I think there are quite a few interesting things about these numbers. Some highly touted point guards, especially Brandon Knight, were fairly unproductive in college. There don’t seem to be that many extremely productive players, although Faried really stands out. Of course, he didn’t play in a quality league, but to have numbers that stand out like that would make me very willing to take a chance on him, especially if I’m a late lottery team. Irving looks like the #1 pick, but he only played a handful of games, so the numbers aren’t entirely conclusive. Finally, other than Brandon Knight, all of the American players projected in the lottery look to be very productive.
-James
Wages of Wins Journal 
dm
June 18, 2011
What a landmine Brandon Knight is, his PAWS40 is lower than Johnny Fylnn’s! It is actually below average, from what I understand, for a player in college.
All the talk is about how athletic he is and yet he gets only 4.5 rebounds per 40 and an abysmal 0.7 steals per 40.
SA
June 18, 2011
Is Derrick Williams a power forward or a small forward? I’ve seen him listed at both. If he’s a power forward would it make sense for the Timberwolves to draft him and keep him, since Minnesota already has Kevin Love?
I saw that the Timberwolves were trying to pry McGee away from the Wizards in a draft-related trade. I doubt the Wizards realize he was the team’s most productive player, particularly the since coach openly criticizes his offense.
Chandler Parsons looks like he could be a second round steal for someone.
Tommy_Grand
June 19, 2011
Good article.