Let’s Talk Team Adjustments

Here’s a basic rundown of how the Wins Produced metric works (see Calculating Wins Produced for the full rundown)

[Player Box Score Stats] + [Team Defense] – [Team Help] – [League Average for their Position]

• Player Box Score Stats is just the weighted box score numbers for any player.
• The League Average compares the player against all other players at the same position.
• Team Defense looks at how good the player’s team’s defense was and assigns the player a percentage of that based on how many minutes they played.
• Team Help looks at how good the player’s team was at helping (assisting and blocking) and either rewards the player if they played on a bad team (the player was better than they looked) or ding them if they play on a good team (the player was worse than they looked).

Most people are ok with Player Box Score Stats and League Average. The Team Defense and Team Help is where some claim that we wave our hands to make everything right. Today I’ll be reviewing Team Defense and Team Help with the 2011 Season to help alleviate this fear.

Team Defense

Team Defense relies on five separate team stats.

• Three Pointers made by the opponent
• Two Pointers made by the opponent
• Opponent Turnovers that weren’t a result of a steal.
• Team Turnovers – these are turnovers not directly attributed to a given player (e.g. shot clock violation, or in other words, turnovers that are not steals)
• Team Rebounds — these are rebounds not directly attributed to a given player that resulted in a change of possession.

As we can see, Team Defense primarily checks how good the team is at impacting the opponent’s made shots and forcing turnovers. Let’s see the impact of the Team Defense on each team.

Team	MP	WP	WP48	TeamDef.	TeamDef.48
Chicago Bulls	19830	60.5	0.147	10.8	0.026
Milwaukee Bucks	19830	38.5	0.093	10.2	0.025
Boston Celtics	19780	55.0	0.134	9.9	0.024
Portland Trail Blazers	19805	44.9	0.109	6.9	0.017
Orlando Magic	19830	55.7	0.135	6.4	0.016
Memphis Grizzlies	19880	47.3	0.114	4.1	0.010
Miami Heat	19780	61.1	0.148	3.6	0.009
Utah Jazz	19880	36.0	0.087	2.7	0.006
Atlanta Hawks	19730	38.4	0.093	2.1	0.005
Philadelphia 76ers	19930	44.9	0.108	1.9	0.005
Charlotte Bobcats	19805	30.2	0.073	1.7	0.004
New Jersey Nets	20005	24.4	0.059	1.6	0.004
New Orleans Hornets	19830	43.3	0.105	1.5	0.004
Los Angeles Clippers	19855	32.6	0.079	1.1	0.003
Indiana Pacers	19780	37.9	0.092	0.5	0.001
Los Angeles Lakers	19830	57.5	0.139	-0.4	-0.001
Dallas Mavericks	19705	51.9	0.127	-1.5	-0.004
Detroit Pistons	19880	31.3	0.076	-1.6	-0.004
Washington Wizards	19930	21.0	0.051	-1.9	-0.005
Sacramento Kings	19855	26.6	0.064	-3.7	-0.009
Oklahoma City Thunder	20005	51.8	0.124	-3.8	-0.009
San Antonio Spurs	19780	56.3	0.137	-4.3	-0.01
Houston Rockets	19880	46.9	0.113	-4.5	-0.011
Denver Nuggets	19705	53.8	0.131	-4.5	-0.011
New York Knicks	19780	42.9	0.104	-5.2	-0.013
Golden State Warriors	19830	34.1	0.082	-5.5	-0.013
Toronto Raptors	19780	23.9	0.058	-5.6	-0.014
Phoenix Suns	20005	38.9	0.093	-6.7	-0.016
Minnesota Timberwolves	19780	22.8	0.055	-7.0	-0.017
Cleveland Cavaliers	19755	16.9	0.041	-8.8	-0.021

Table 1: Team Defenses for 2010-2011 Season

Team Defense can certainly make a difference. A large part of Chicago’s surge in the East can be attributed to it. Some of the downright terrible teams in Cleveland, Minnesota and Toronto had atrocious defenses. What is important to note is that all of the defensive wins fall within 11 Wins Produced, and for a majority of teams (19) it’s less than five wins. The responsibility for a good or poor defense is also shared across many players. Kevin Love for instance earned over 25 wins this season. He was credited with -0.7 wins as a result of his defense (he played roughly 13% of the available minutes). If somehow we blamed him for all of the Wolves terrible defense he’d still be worth over 18 games.

Team Help

Team help relies on two stats

• Team Assists
• Team Blocks

This actually works the opposite way as Team Defense. If you’re on a team that passes a lot and has good shot blockers your numbers are slightly inflated. Players lucky enough to play with the likes of Steve Nash and Jason Kidd fall under this category. Here’s a rundown of how teams are affected by team help numbers.

Team	MP	WP	WP48	TeamHelp	TeamHelp48
Utah Jazz	19880	36.0	0.087	-5.1	-0.012
Dallas Mavericks	19705	51.9	0.127	-3.7	-0.009
Houston Rockets	19880	46.9	0.113	-3.6	-0.009
Phoenix Suns	20005	38.9	0.093	-2.8	-0.007
Chicago Bulls	19830	60.5	0.147	-2.8	-0.007
Boston Celtics	19780	55.0	0.134	-2.6	-0.006
Golden State Warriors	19830	34.1	0.082	-2.0	-0.005
New York Knicks	19780	42.9	0.104	-1.5	-0.004
Los Angeles Lakers	19830	57.5	0.139	-1.3	-0.003
San Antonio Spurs	19780	56.3	0.137	-1.2	-0.003
Los Angeles Clippers	19855	32.6	0.079	-1.1	-0.003
Philadelphia 76ers	19930	44.9	0.108	-1.1	-0.003
Denver Nuggets	19705	53.8	0.131	-0.5	-0.001
Atlanta Hawks	19730	38.4	0.093	0.0	0.000
Charlotte Bobcats	19805	30.2	0.073	0.0	0.000
Toronto Raptors	19780	23.9	0.058	0.1	0.000
Oklahoma City Thunder	20005	51.8	0.124	0.7	0.002
Memphis Grizzlies	19880	47.3	0.114	0.9	0.002
Portland Trail Blazers	19805	44.9	0.109	1.3	0.003
New Jersey Nets	20005	24.4	0.059	1.6	0.004
Cleveland Cavaliers	19755	16.9	0.041	1.9	0.005
Minnesota Timberwolves	19780	22.8	0.055	1.9	0.005
Washington Wizards	19930	21.0	0.051	2.0	0.005
Miami Heat	19780	61.1	0.148	2.0	0.005
Indiana Pacers	19780	37.9	0.092	2.1	0.005
Sacramento Kings	19855	26.6	0.064	2.2	0.005
Detroit Pistons	19880	31.3	0.076	2.2	0.005
New Orleans Hornets	19830	43.3	0.105	2.4	0.006
Orlando Magic	19830	55.7	0.135	3.1	0.008
Milwaukee Bucks	19830	38.5	0.093	4.8	0.012

Table 2: Team Help for 2010-2011

Not a bunch of surprises here. If your team had good playmakers and defensive stoppers the team numbers take a slight hit. It was surprising to see Utah at the top of this list but they did have Deron Williams for part of the season and were in the top five both in assists and blocks. We can also notice that this adjustment is much smaller than team defense, and all teams pretty much stay within 5 wins.

Putting It All Together

Team	MP	WP	WP48	TeamAdj	TeamAdj.48
Milwaukee Bucks	19830	38.5	0.093	15.1	0.036
Orlando Magic	19830	55.7	0.135	9.5	0.023
Portland Trail Blazers	19805	44.9	0.109	8.2	0.020
Chicago Bulls	19830	60.5	0.147	8.0	0.019
Boston Celtics	19780	55.0	0.134	7.3	0.018
Miami Heat	19780	61.1	0.148	5.7	0.014
Memphis Grizzlies	19880	47.3	0.114	5.0	0.012
New Orleans Hornets	19830	43.3	0.105	3.9	0.009
New Jersey Nets	20005	24.4	0.059	3.2	0.008
Indiana Pacers	19780	37.9	0.092	2.6	0.006
Atlanta Hawks	19730	38.4	0.093	2.1	0.005
Charlotte Hornets	19805	30.2	0.073	1.8	0.004
Philadelphia 76ers	19930	44.9	0.108	0.8	0.002
Detroit Pistons	19880	31.3	0.076	0.6	0.001
Washington Wizards	19930	21.0	0.051	0.1	0.000
Las Angeles Clippers	19855	32.6	0.079	0.0	0.000
Sacramento Kings	19855	26.6	0.064	-1.6	-0.004
Los Angeles Lakers	19830	57.5	0.139	-1.7	-0.004
Utah Jazz	19880	36.0	0.087	-2.4	-0.006
Oklahoma City Thunder	20005	51.8	0.124	-3.1	-0.007
Denver Nuggets	19705	53.8	0.131	-5.0	-0.012
Minnesota Timberwolves	19780	22.8	0.055	-5.0	-0.012
Dallas Mavericks	19705	51.9	0.127	-5.1	-0.013
Toronto Raptors	19780	23.9	0.058	-5.5	-0.013
San Antonio Spurs	19780	56.3	0.137	-5.5	-0.013
New York Knicks	19780	42.9	0.104	-6.7	-0.016
Cleveland Cavaliers	19755	16.9	0.041	-6.9	-0.017
Golden State Warriors	19830	34.1	0.082	-7.5	-0.018
Houston Rockets	19880	46.9	0.113	-8.1	-0.020
Phoenix Suns	20005	38.9	0.093	-9.5	-0.023

Table 3: Total Team Adjustments for 2010-2011

When we put the numbers together only one team manages to get 10 wins from the team adjustment. Turns out Milwaukee was great on defense and terrible on help, and as a result had the biggest swing in team adjustment. Here are some fun teams to note.

• Chicago was in the top five for most helpful team and team defense. This reinforces the notion that Chicago was a really good team and it wasn’t all Derrick Rose.
• Orlando and Milwaukee were in the top five for defense and the bottom 5 for team help.
• Phoenix was in the bottom five for defense and top five for help.

Summing Up

When looking at the team adjustments for wins produced it is clear that they do matter. Many of the fears people have (adjusting for pace on teams like the Suns, accounting for defense) are taken care of with these. To be fair these adjustments aren’t perfect, but what’s key to notice is that at the player level these adjustments are not large. In the worst case scenario — such as Phoenix and Milwaukee — even a player getting more than 2,000 minutes won’t notice a boost or hit of much more than 1.0 Wins Produced. To be a truly great player (such as Kevin Love) or a truly terrible player (such as Andrea Bargnani) it requires a lot of heavy lifting on the player’s part themselves (and no team adjustment will fix that).  And this is why the correlation between the adjusted and unadjusted production numbers (as noted in this forum since 2006) is around 0.99.

Hope that answered some questions and I’m sure there may be more. Feel free to leave them in the comments (just make sure they are polite and we can continue explaining how things work).

-Dre

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