Devin Dignam (of NBeh? “fame”) is the Toronto Raptors writer for the Wages of Wins Network. He’s also an avid enthusiast of the draft (helped by being a Raptors fan). This post continues his comprehensive review of the 2011 draft.
Reviewing the Draft
Today I am continuing the Western Conference grades by taking a look at the Southwest Division teams. Previously I’ve looked at:
- Winners and Losers of the 2011 NBA draft
- Atlantic Division Draft Grades
- Central Division Draft Grades
- Southeast Division Draft Grades
- Northwest Division Draft Grades
For those who are forgetful (thanks for the suggestion, mmotherwell), here are the average positional values for PAWS/40:
- PG: 7.4
- SG: 8.4
- SF: 9.95
- PF: 12.59
- C: 12.32
- All players: 10.17
Ranking all players by PAWS gives us a good idea of how well a player performed in their various leagues. A word of warning, though: NCAA PAWS/40 does not correlate perfectly to NBA success, and Euroleague PAWS/40 is even worse. For the most part, though, players with a PAWS of 12 or higher usually end up being good NBA players, and players with a PAWS of under 7.3 end up being below average players.
In order to come up with team grades, my method is as follows: I have a spreadsheet with all the draft prospects, all the draftees, their PAWS/40, and (thanks to Arturo) the expected values of each pick. I also recorded the change in salary and wins obtained through draft day trades involving veteran players. Based on these numbers, I came up with the value that each team stands to gain if PAWS/40 can perfectly predict NBA productivity. Of course, PAWS/40 can’t predict NBA productivity perfectly, so the values I came up with aren’t infallible; I had to offer some subjective alterations to the raw scores. I won’t pretend that my evaluations are perfect, but nevertheless, I much prefer my methods to the vast majority of draft evaluations, which rely almost exclusively on subjective elements.
On to the grades!
San Antonio Spurs: A
There were a lot of potential second round steals this year, but to me, the team that had no business getting what it got was the San Antonio Spurs. In exchange for George Hill– an average guard still on his rookie contract – the Spurs got Kawhi Leonard, who posted a PAWS/40 of 13.02, which was good enough for 4th amongst all drafted players. The really amazing part about the trade is that they still have a strong guard rotation (Parker, Ginobili), it shores up the Spurs’ weakest position (small forward), and takes minutes away from the unproductive Richard Jefferson. Now the Spurs can trot out a starting lineup of Parker, Giniobili, Leonard, DeJuan Blair, and Tim Duncan, and try for one last ring before Duncan retires.
Will Tim Duncan win another one of these?
Dallas Mavericks: B
Dallas traded their picks (#26 and #57) away in order to obtain Rudy Fernandez. As far as value goes, Fernandez is a little bit more valuable than your typical #26…but there is always the potential to pick up a decent young player at #26. But I suppose Dallas is in a ‘win now’ mentality at the moment, and Fernandez is still only 26 years old, so this was an okay move. Fernandez was unhappy in Portland and had seen his productivity decline, so there is also a chance that the change of scenery will help him to perform even better than expected.
Calm down Dirk; it's just Rudy Fernandez
New Orleans Hornets: F
The Hornets had only one draft pick – #45 – and they sold it! While most second round picks don’t amount to much in the NBA, every now and then a team will strike it rich. And because you can’t make a shot you don’t take (please keep this info away from the Raptors), New Orleans gets an F.
"What is the owner thinking! Oh, wait a minute...who owns the Hornets again?"
Memphis Grizzlies: D
With their only pick – the #49 – the Grizzlies selected Kansas shooting guard Josh Selby. This is notable because Selby posted a PAWS/40 of 3.77 – the lowest of any NCAA player who was drafted. Not only that, but he posted the 12th smallest PAWS/40 of any NCAA prospect in this year’s database, just ahead of such notables as Trey Zeigler, Lamont Jones, and Mfon Udofia. In defense of the Grizzlies, most teams aren’t expected to pick a useful player so late in the draft anyways, and there is always a chance that Selby will play better than his past performance indicates. For this reason, I am giving the Grizzlies the lowest possible non-failing grade: D.
"Josh! Over here!"
Houston Rockets: C
Houston was involved in some draft day trades. They obtained the #20 and Johnny Flynn in exchange for the #23, #38 and Brad Miller. They then bought back the #38 from Minnesota, leaving them with the #14, #20, and #38 picks, as well as Johnny Flynn. At #14, the team selected Marcus Morris, a power forward who posted a PAWS/40 11.48 (18th). The player they obtained with the #20 was Donatas Motiejunas, a player who posted a PAWS/40 of 4.60 (75th – just ahead of Josh Selby). At #38, the team obtained Chandler Parsons, who posted a PAWS/40 of 10.32 (25th). Motiejunas was not a good pick, but Parsons and especially Morris look like they could become decent NBA players. Why am I being so hard on the Rockets if this is the case? Because of Johnny Flynn. While Brad Miller is no longer an above average player, doesn’t play very many minutes, and is overpaid, he is certainly better than Flynn, who is the 38th most overpaid player in the league. This more unfortunate Flynn effect drops Houston down to a C.
No, not that Flynn effect
-Devin
Wages of Wins Journal 
anthony franco
July 21, 2011
Don’t get the Flynn trade as he will be buried on the bench behind Lowry and Dragic. Houston may be trying to buy low and sell high with Flynn but the only way to up his perceived value is to play him. Also Brad Miller seems like a much more valuable asset in the short term than Flynn.
As for the Mavs, getting Rudy Fernandez for a late 1st round is a steal. Most late first rounders aren’t very good and get locked into guaranteed contracts to the detriment of the team. Fernandez is much more valuable than anything they would have gotten at 26.
And given that the Spurs gave up a solid rotation guy like Hill that is a definite indicator that they are going give Leonard a chance to play.
brgulker
July 21, 2011
Good stuff, devin.
I’m with anthony on Fernandez to Dallas. That was a great trade for them. Instead of taking a gamble that’s not likely to pay off, they’re guaranteed a rotation swingman to bolster their already deep bench.
I also really liked San Antonio’s draft, but I think saying Leonard should and/or will start in place of Jefferson is a little premature.
Man of Steele
July 21, 2011
I was a bit more pessimistic on the Rockets draft. If they think Morris is an NBA power forward (although his size says small forward), they could have drafted Kenneth Faried. If they wanted a small forward, they could have drafted Kawhi Leanord. Their first pick was a mistake either way, in my opinion. I would have liked to have seen them take Travis Leslie at no. 20, as Kevin Martin injury-prone and the backup SGs are Courtney Lee and possibly Johnny Flynn.
In sum, the first two picks basically went to waste, although Chandler Parsons was a reasonably good 2nd round value. Thanks for the review, Devin!
Patrick Minton
July 21, 2011
brgulker:
I don’t think he said that Leonard would start in place of Jefferson, merely that he will take minutes away from Jefferson by virtue of playing the same position — i.e. if even if Jefferson still starts, his minutes will probably go down.
mosiplatt
July 21, 2011
@Patrick Minton:
brgulker is right.
“Now the Spurs can trot out a starting
lineup of Parker, Giniobili, Leonard, DeJuan Blair,
and Tim Duncan…”
Wayne Crimi
July 21, 2011
I’m not a Flynn fan, but the Triangle is notorious for depressing the stats of PGs like Flynn. Ramon Sessions looked like he was developing into a decent player for the Bucks before going to the T-Wolves. He was promptly terrible. Then he was traded to the Cavs (who were talentless because of injuries and because well, they were talentless) and he started playing much better again despite no help on offense. There is already talk of overhauling the offense specifically because Rubio is coming,
If you consider Flynn as a fast athletic prospect that was playing in the wrong system and whose development and play were severely hampered by injury, he’s worth taking a look at for a year in a different set of circumstances. I’m sure that’s the thinking. He may never be any good, but his stats are mostly irrelevant. He could easily still become a decent backup PG.
africangenesis
July 22, 2011
Keep in mind that Brad Miller had micro-fracture surgery and may not play next year, which I think is the last year of his contract. Taking Flynn in exchange is probably the price the Rockets had to pay to get the draft choice they wanted, and Miller just made the salaries match. Minnesota must have wanted to get rid of Flynn bad. The Rockets got someone who may play next year for someone who won’t.
Devin Dignam
July 22, 2011
Ah…my wording was very carefully planned:
“Now the Spurs can trot out a starting lineup of Parker, Giniobili, Leonard, DeJuan Blair, and Tim Duncan…”
Not saying whether they will or not…but it’s an available option. :)
anthony franco:
I think Dallas’ move was okay – in terms of the value I expected out of their draft night, they exceeded it slightly. As such, I gave them a B, which is a ‘good’ grade in the system I’m using. I wouldn’t call Fernandez a ‘steal’, but he’s decent pick up.
Greg:
One of the things this method does not lend itself to is rating draft choices based on the prospects that were available when teams selected. So when the Rockets picked up Morris, who was ranked 18th, I simply docked them for picking the “18th best player” at the #14, but did not take into account that the #1 and #4 prospects were still available. It would take some work to come up with a system that corrected this problem.
africangenesis:
If Brad Miller is out for the season (I hadn’t heard that), then I can perhaps understand why the Rockets went for the trade. Maybe they will be looking to flip Flynn to a team that hopes they can turn him around? Because as anthony franco said, the Rockets already have Lowry and Dragic.
Wayne Crimi:
I might buy that excuse for Flynn in this case – Rambis’ system was, by all accounts, terrible, and his teams played really poorly. It is possible for a coach to fail to put players in the correct situations or to fail to maximize each player’s abilities, which would lead to a player posting worse stats than we would expect from them. But until a couple of more years go by, we won’t know for sure. I’ll just stick to the simplest and most likely explanation for now: Flynn posts bad stats because he simply isn’t a good NBA player.