Greg Steele is a student at Abilene Christian University and a long-time Houston Rockets fan. Being short and round (and not like Charles Barkley), Greg is a basketball watcher, not a basketball player. As such, Greg was attracted to statistical measures which recognize the contributions of round and clumsy players as well as those of the more aesthetically pleasing players, so the Wages of Wins was a natural fit. Greg is available via email at ges05a@acu.edu
Hall of Fame
Sabonis is in unique company.
This past Friday the 2011 class was inducted into the NBA Hall of Fame. Although Dennis Rodman occupied much of the spotlight (as usual), well-known scorers Artis Gilmore and Chris Mullins received plenty of attention. The inductee who has been overlooked, though, is the tallest of the class: Arvydas Sabonis.
Sabonis was inducted into the Hall of Fame at least partially because he was one of the first international players to jump to the NBA. Unfortunately, Sabonis came along in a time before the globalization of the NBA, and so Sabonis only entered the NBA as a 31 year-old “rookie.” Despite his late start, Sabonis’ short career was very productive. While we have almost no statistical information about Sabonis’ career before he came to the NBA, we can compare his performance after the age of 31 with the 3 best centers in the last 20 years, all of whom played well beyond their 31st birthdays: Hakeem Olajuwon, David Robinson, and Shaquille O’Neal. The chart below compares the performances of the four centers after the age of 31.
Table 1: Wins Produced for Top Centers that played over the age of 30
| Hakeem Olajuwon | Shaquille O’Neal | David Robinson | Arvydas Sabonis | |
| WP at 31 | 20.6 | 15.4 | 1.2 | 13.3 |
| WP at 32 | 15.6 | 15.9 | 17.8 | 10.5 |
| WP at 33 | 15.5 | 8.5 | 18.4 | 12.7 |
| WP at 34 | 10.4 | 3.0 | 16.6 | 9.2 |
| WP at 35 | 7.0 | 5.6 | 13.9 | 9.8 |
| WP at 36 | 10.4 | 12.4 | 12.9 | 3.5 |
| WP at 37 | 2.0 | 3.7 | 9.2 | DNP |
| WP at 38 | 6.6 | 2.1 | Retired | 6.1 |
| WP at 39 | 3.7 | Retired | Retired | Retired |
| Total WP in 30s | 91.8 | 66.6 | 90 | 65.1 |
| Career WP% | 33.70% | 24.50% | 34.80% | 100% |
Table 2: Wins Produced per 48 Minutes for Top Centers that played over the age of 30
| Hakeem Olajuwon | Shaquille O’Neal | David Robinson | Arvydas Sabonis | |
| WP48 at 31 | 0.302 | 0.300 | 0.390 | 0.368 |
| WP48 at 32 | 0.262 | 0.306 | 0.348 | 0.280 |
| WP48 at 33 | 0.267 | 0.225 | 0.348 | 0.261 |
| WP48 at 34 | 0.176 | 0.128 | 0.311 | 0.227 |
| WP48 at 35 | 0.205 | 0.153 | 0.281 | 0.278 |
| WP48 at 36 | 0.207 | 0.265 | 0.269 | 0.129 |
| WP48 at 37 | 0.093 | 0.142 | 0.264 | DNP |
| WP48 at 38 | 0.206 | 0.137 | Retired | 0.243 |
| WP48 at 39 | 0.130 | Retired | Retired | Retired |
| WP48 in 30s | 0.205 | 0.207 | 0.316 | 0.256 |
Clearly, Robinson is the class of the group, followed by Olajuwon, who was better as an older player, and Shaq, who was better as a younger player. While Sabonis’ 65.1 Wins Produced lag significantly behind Hakeem Olajuwon and David Robinson, the mean WP48 of Sabonis’ 7 seasons after age 31 is higher than the mean WP48 of Olajuwon’s 9 seasons after the age of 31. Sabonis’ mean WP48 is also significantly higher than O’Neal’s, even though O’Neal only played one more season than Sabonis.
A Tale of Two Cities: Sabonis and Shaq
Shaq and Sabonis. . . foul?
Sabonis is most similar after the age of 31 to Shaq, whose late-career output accounted for only 24.5% of his total career Wins Produced. If we project Sabonis’ career along the same career arc that we see with O’Neal, making Sabonis’ 65.1 WP after age 31 account for 24.5% of his “career” WP, we come up with an estimated 265.7 Wins produced for Sabonis, if he had entered the NBA as a younger man. Shaquille O’Neal turned 20 in his first NBA season, unlike Robinson (24) or Olajuwon (22). Again we find that Sabonis is more directly comparable with O’Neal, since Sabonis was the star of the Soviet Olympic team at the age of 19. Thus, using Shaq’s career arc as an approximation of Sabonis career arc seems reasonable because: 1) The two had very similar production after the age of 31, and 2) both began playing top-level basketball as young players.
Summing Up
As you can see Sabonis easily belongs as a member of this group. It’s somewhat fitting that Sabonis made the hall of fame the same season Shaq retired. While we got to see Shaq play for a very long time, we only got to see Sabonis play at the twighlight of his career. Let’s just be happy that thanks to the Hall of Fame his greatness won’t be forgotten.
-Greg
Wages of Wins Journal 
Patrick Minton (@nbageek)
August 15, 2011
Very interesting stuff. I remember an article about 4-5 years ago on ESPN by Hollinger that attempted to predict which players age poorly, and the conclusion (which isn’t all that shocking) is that players who rely on athleticism don’t age well, whereas players that shoot and pass efficiently age well because neither is hindered much by loss of athleticism with age (unless your efficient shooting is from dunking).
His prediction at the time was that Chauncy Billups, Steve Nash, and Jason Kidd, who were all getting older, were going to keep being great players, while Stephon Marbury, Allen Iverson, and some others were not going to age well.
I guess my rambling point is that Sabonis game was never about athleticism, even when he was younger — his knees were always kind of iffy and no one ever accused him of being a sprinter or a high-jumper. But he was a very smart player who shot efficiently and passed well while rarely turning the ball over. And like Kevin Love is proving right now, there’s more to rebounding than athleticism.
mosiplatt
August 15, 2011
@nbageek:
Sabonis in his early 20s was an athletic, 7’3″ center. That had a lot to do w/ his rebounding compared to the “not very athletic”, 6’8 Kevin Love in his early 20s.
Man of Steele
August 15, 2011
Hmm, can I agree with both of you? I think that Patrick point stands, but that athletic players can learn skills as young players that enable them to age well. A few examples: Lamar Odom, Kevin Garnett, Tim Hardaway, Jason Richardson, Grant Hill, Antonio McDyess. All these players began as very athletic guys, but aged well due to various skills which they developed while they still had their athleticism.
So, I agree with Patrick that the “never were very athletic guys” tend to age well, but I also agree with Mosi that some guys who initially depend mainly on their athleticism can develop and age quite well too. This latter seems a little more difficult to forecast than the former.
James
August 15, 2011
Great post, Greg. Very interesting to see these comparisons. Sabonis was a beast even in his 30s and it’s a shame we’ll never know what he would have done in the NBA in his prime.
Devin Dignam
August 16, 2011
I loved watching Sabonis play. Too bad he was on the Jailblazers team that I hated.
And the moment that made me permanently dislike Rasheed Wallace was when he threw that towel in Sabonis’ face. What an ass!