With all the talk of “big market” and “small market” teams, one thing has been lost during lockout talks: some NBA cities just can’t support a team. To illustrate that in this post I’ve put together a list of six cities that, for various reasons, are very difficult markets for their NBA teams.
A quick explanation of terms is at the bottom, because we know that everyone would rather get to the good stuff first!
6. Salt Lake City
I remembered to turn out the lights when I left.
- Metro Population: 1,124,197
- Pro teams: 2
- Total Personal Income:$55.5 Billion
- Available Personal Income:-$5.9 billion
- Win/Loss Record: 1633 Wins, 369 Losses, 54.4%
- Playoff Appearances: 24 times in 37 years, 64.9%
The Jazz have been very, very good in Salt Lake City, sporting an impressive W-L record and reaching the playoffs in a high percentage of their years in the league. Fan support seems to be quite solid too. But the truth of the matter is that Salt Lake City just isn’t big enough for an NBA team. Even nearly three decades of sustained success on the court isn’t going to change that reality.
5. New Orleans
You know leaving New Orleans was for the best.
- Metro Population: 1,167,764
- Pro teams: 2
- Total Personal Income:$89.3 Billion
- Available Personal Income: -$18.4 billion
- Win/Loss Record: 913 Wins, 941 Losses, 49.2%
- Playoff Appearances: 12 times in 23 years, 52.2%
Even in the best of times, New Orleans was not a very big market. The Saints have been in New Orleans since the 60s, and there wasn’t enough local income available to the Hornets when they first moved there in 2002. Then Hurricane Katrina hit, which only made everything worse. Eventually, former owner George Shinn had to sell the team to the NBA, and it’s only a matter of time before the team is moved somewhere else.
4. Minneapolis
Hey Kevin Love, come on over!
- Metro Population: 3,317,308
- Pro teams: 4
- Total Personal Income:$233.3 Billion
- Available Personal Income: -$39.4 billion
- Win/Loss Record: 705 Wins, 1067 Losses, 39.8%
- Playoff Appearances: 8 times in 22 years, 36.4%
The Twin Cities are actually a pretty big market — the 18th largest in Canada and the US, in fact. However, the area has four professional sports teams, and because of this the TPI is significantly negative. It’s likely that either the Timberwolves or the Wild will find themselves playing somewhere else in a couple of years. And although the T-Wolves have been in the area longer, they have a terrible track record, and seem more likely to be moved.
3. Milwaukee
No one wants to be here.
- Metro Population: 1,555,908
- Pro teams: 2
- Total Personal Income:$178.4 Billion
- Available Personal Income: -$58.8 billion
- Win/Loss Record: 1825 Wins, 1669 Losses, 52.2%
- Playoff Appearances: 26 times in 43 years, 60.5%
Another shame. The Bucks are a historically good team in a small market, but the problem is that the area also has an MLB team. Also not very helpful is the fact that the franchise’s best days are behind it, with a disproportionate amount of success coming during its early days. Attendance has been low for several years, and the owner of the team, Herb Kohl, has been whining about his team’s financial situation for years. Unless the owners get a very favorable new CBA, Milwaukee could be on the way out. (Editor’s Note: It’s even worse if you count the Green Bay Packers)
2. Cleveland
I can't believe I stayed in Cleveland for 7 years
- Metro Population: 2,077,240
- Pro teams: 3
- Total Personal Income:$227.7 Billion
- Available Personal Income: -$71.4 billion
- Win/Loss Record: 1540 Wins, 1790 Losses, 46.2%
- Playoff Appearances: 18 times in 41 years, 43.9%
While the Cavaliers have been in the league for about as long as the Bucks, they have not had nearly the same level of success. And because Cleveland is a bigger city than Milwaukee, this would be okay, except for the fact that Cleveland has two additional pro teams. As it stands, Cleveland is the second most overextended sports market in North America. The long Rust Belt decline and Mr. Comic Sans certainly don’t help either. LeBron James had the right idea: it’s time for the NBA to get out of Cleveland.
1. Denver
Seeya!
- Metro Population: 2,543,482
- Pro teams: 5
- Total Personal Income:$293.7 Billion
- Available Personal Income: -$87.4 billion
- Win/Loss Record: 1369 Wins, 1469 Losses, 48.2% (NBA)
- Playoff Appearances: 22 times in 35 years, 62.9% (NBA)
Like Minneapolis, Denver is actually a large market. However, Denver is the most overextended sports market in North America. There are five pro teams there! There is not enough money in the Denver area to support so many teams. In order for there to be enough money to go around, the city would have to lose either the Rockies or two of the Broncos, Nuggets, and Avalanche. MLB teams do not move very often and the NFL is very popular, so the best bet would be that the Nuggets and Avalanche could be on the way out in the near future. Which is a shame, because the Nuggets — as well as the Avalanche, but no one cares about hockey (says the Canadian) –have had a lot of success in Denver. As long as the team is doing well — as it has done recently — it has a chance of sticking around, but whenever it hits a sustained down period…be prepared Nuggets fans, be prepared.
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- “Metro Population”: the population of the Metropolitan Statistical Area.
- “Pro teams”: the number of NFL, MLB, NBA, NHL, and MLS teams in a city.
- “Total personal income(TPI)”: the sum of all money earned by all residents of an area in a given year. Using team revenue data and average ticket prices one can calculate amount of TPI needed to adequately support a team in each north american professional sports league.
- “Available personal income(API)”: simply TPI less the cost it takes to support the city’s pro teams. Minimum income bases were estimated (see linked article) to be $85.4 billion for MLB, $37.6 billion for the NHL, $36.7 billion for the NFL, $34.2 billion for the NBA, and $15.4 billion for MLS. If API is positive, it means that you are good to go for a franchise. If API is negative, then you really need to figure out where you are going to move your team. Only teams in the NFL, MLB, NHL, NBA and MLS are counted for this calculation.
- “Win/Loss Record”: win-loss record, which includes winning percentage
- “Playoff Appearances”: the number playoff appearances divided by the number of years in the NBA
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Wages of Wins Journal 
greyv
October 28, 2011
Why does it take so much city income to support a baseball team? Is it simply do to the number of games? Seems to me the answer is to kick baseball to the curb. Then there’s more money for sports where something actually takes place. Maybe if we moved the basketball season to the summer and played outside…
Devin Dignam
October 28, 2011
greyv,
Yes, it’s got to be the number of games. There are 81 home games in an MLB regular season — almost exactly double the amount of home games in the NBA and NHL. That doesn’t quite add up to the extra income required to support an MLB team, but that’s most of it. Perhaps MLB fans get a little fatigued with the large number of games and don’t attend as many, requiring a disproportionally large income base to support an MLB franchise?
I think I’m with you — I’d rather have an NBA team, NFL/NHL team, and MLS team than one MLB team (easy for me to say, because I only care about the NBA). Although the NBA and NHL seasons do overlap….
greyv
October 28, 2011
I think the list of the 22 markets that could support an NBA team is even more interesting. Who wouldn’t want to play in Honolulu (travel logistics notwithstanding)? And how hasn’t Vegas happened yet?
And why haven’t the players noticed that there are 22 cities without a professional basketball team that could easily support one (and another 35 that could possibly do so)? Damn risk aversion!
Devin Dignam
October 28, 2011
greyv:
Shhhhhhh! I’m getting there! :)
The 22 cities number is exactly why I started looking into this stuff in the first place. Seems to me that, if they really wanted to, the NBA’s stars could set up a league in those 22 cities.
greyv
October 28, 2011
Should have known you’d be three steps ahead of me. Thanks for pointing this research out!
Patrick Minton (@nbageek)
October 28, 2011
I’ve got no numbers but clearly OKC should be on this list. It’s a smaller market than Seattle, yet the owners moved anyway.
Also, Minneapolis is an odd choice. As you say, it’s a big market, but the fact that the T-wolves are bad doesn’t mean much — all 4 franchises have had plenty of bad years. If the Wolves improved to a 50-win team and the Twins started sucking would your position change to move baseball instead?
Dre
October 28, 2011
I thought Devin was friends with us – he’s target Utah (Dave), Denver (me) and Minnesota (you) – his next post will probably have some crazy notion they should be in Canada instead or something. . .
Devin Dignam
October 28, 2011
Patrick:
Charlotte and Indianapolis just miss the cut, and OKC and Memphis aren’t far behind. New Orleans is about the same size as OKC and has about the same income, but has an NFL team. As for Salt Lake City, it is smaller, has less income, and also has an MLS team. OKC is better off than I thought, though.
greyv:
No problem! That’s my aim!
W. Crimi (@lovethoseknicks)
October 29, 2011
This is one possible direction the league can take to justify its existence economically. It may even be the best one. Now just go into the negotiations and tell the NBA players they can keep 53% of BRI, but they have to lose 6 cities and 90 players and see how they react. lmao
Drew Miller
October 30, 2011
Does MLS count as a real sports team? Why not WNBA? Arena football?
Jason Chandler
October 30, 2011
Take Real Salt Lake! Take them away! Please don’t take away my Jazz.
Colby Spradlin
October 31, 2011
I’m sorry but how can you put Salt Lake City down as a team that doesn’t DESERVE an NBA team? Utah has proven more than any other small market city that it DESERVES a team. They are a constant playoff team who has produced one of the highest win % in the entire league. They have a FO that has kept them in the playoffs and always making money. SLC isn’t an empty arena like Toronto, ever since there arrival every game is always packed with loud and loyal fans that brings money to the league. They have produced one of the greatest coaches in the history of the league and arguably the best point guard and power forward the league has ever seen and indisputably the greatest duo in NBA history. If The Jazz arena was 1/3 full every night and constantly in the lottery that would make sense but they have proven to be money earners and have fought with the big dogs of the league since the franchise moved to Utah. Larry Miller took a chance and they earned the right to be respected in this league and it’s time people and other players started doing it. Using location and population is invalid when a team has one of the highest attendance rates,highest season ticket holder rates and highest win % in the league. With your logic OKC doesn’t deserve a team