If I were doing what I said I would do, the next team to be analyzed would be the Toronto Raptors. Yesterday, though, an immense number of requests (okay, four) came in for a comment on the Boston Celtics. So last night I looked at the 2006-07 edition of the franchise that still leads the NBA in titles.
Celtic History
For thirty seasons – from 1956-57 to 1985-86 – the Celtics won 16 titles. All other NBA teams won 14 NBA championships. In sum, the Celtics were better than everyone else combined.
The team that took the title in 1986 was led by Larry Bird, who also led the Celtics to titles in 1981 and 1984. In Bird’s career the Celtics averaged 58 wins per season. Even in his last season (1991-92), with Bird only playing 45 games, the Celtics still won 51 contests. Just before the 1992-93 season, though, Larry Legend left the Celtics.
Since Bird departed the best the Celtics have done is 49 victories in 2001-02. In ten of the fourteen seasons since Bird, Boston has failed to win half their games. In sum, the Celtics franchise has gone from being one of the very best to being one of the very worse.
We have found, though, that even on very bad teams you can find above average talent. And this is true for the Celtics, who have since 1999 employed one of the NBA’s best talents.
The Tragedy of Paul Pierce
Coming into the 2006-07 season, Paul Pierce had produce nearly 108 wins in his career. His career Wins Produced per 48 minutes [WP48] stood at 0.226. He had never posted a season that was below average (average WP48 is 0.100) and last year – his best to date – he finished the year ranked 12th in the league in Wins Produced. Among shooting guards, only Dwyane Wade offered more wins in 2005-06. Yes, Pierce was more productive than Kobe Bryant. And if we look at the careers of Pierce and Bryant we would see that last year was not anomaly.
If we look at the Celtics this year — which you can see HERE – we see that Pierce’s outstanding play has continued. After 24 games he had already produced 5.3 wins and was on a pace to clear the 18 win mark for the season. And then he got hurt.
With Pierce out of the line-up the team has only won two of its last ten contests. Clearly Pierce is a big part of what little success this team achieves.
Unfortunately, like Kevin Garnett, Pierce appears destined to be a very productive player who never quite gets the recognition he deserves because his teammates are not very productive.
Everyone Else on the Celtics
Yesterday I proposed looking at each NBA team in terms of Stars and Everyone Else. The Star on the Celtics is clearly Pierce, who as noted, is quite good. If we look at the productivity of Everyone Else on the Celtics in 2005-06, though, we see a WP48 of 0.056, which ranked 23rd in the NBA. This year Everyone Else on the Celtics is offering a WP48 of 0.061, which is still quite bad.
That being said, there are two players this year who are above average – Al Jefferson and Tony Allen. And in fact, both are well above average. Unfortunately, Allen is injured and lost for the season. Hence, going into tonight’s game the only above average player the Celtics will play is Jefferson. This means the Celtics are in trouble.
Injuries have clearly hurt this team. The Celtics have played 34 games this year. But only one Celtic – Sebastian Telfair – has actually played 34 games this year. The rest of the players on this team have played fewer than 34 games.
Injuries have not only caused players to miss games, but also reduced per-minute productivity. Both Wally Szczerbiak and Delonte West – above average performers last season – are playing worse this year.
The play of Telfair, though, suggests that the Boston’s problems are not entirely about the bad luck of injuries. Telfair was the major acquisition of the Celtics in the off-season. In 2004 the Portland Trail Blazers selected him in the lottery. Last year he started 30 games for Portland – the worst team in 2005-06 – and offered 0.89 points per field goal attempt [(PTS-FTM)/FGA]. This is well below average. This year Telfair is producing 0.87 points per field goal attempt, which is even further below average. Not surprisingly, he’s not helping the Celtics win games.
Going Forward
The Celtics – as currently constructed – are a combination of bad luck and bad decisions. Still, I think there is reason for optimism.
Let’s say that the currently injured players return for the 2007-08 season. If that happens this team could have at guard and small forward a combination of Allen, West, Pierce, Szczerbiak, and Rajon Rondo. We have reason to think that each of these players can be above average.
In the frontcourt the team has Jefferson – who looks to be a very good player – and Ryan Gomes. G0mes has a WP48 of 0.107 last year and a mark of 0.090 this season. In sum, he is average (which is not bad).
And this is where the injuries to the Celtics this year could be very helpful in the long-run. The projected Wins Produced for this team stands at 35, but that presumes Allen and Pierce play. Pierce might, but Allen clearly will not. So this team will fall short of 35 wins. The further down the standings this team falls, the better shot it has at Greg Oden or one of the other big men available in the 2007 draft. I have not looked at which big men projects to be the best, but I assume the Celtics can find in the lottery a big man to round out its rotation in the frontcourt.
If we put this all together we see a team that could get better in a hurry. Of course, all of this is based on the assumption that players come back from injury, the team drafts well, and the head coach – be it Doc Rivers or someone else – quits playing players like Telfair. Yes, those are strong assumptions. But if all this comes to pass, the tragedy that is Paul Pierce can still have a happy ending.
– DJ
Wages of Wins Journal 
Ben Guest
January 12, 2007
DJ,
Thanks for the post. Do you think if Leon Powe played more he would continue to post a high WP, or is the sample size (i.e. the minutes) too limited to say? Also, it seems if the C’s just sat Saclabrine they would win 3 more games. Or, if we are gong for Oden, maybe we should play him 48 a night… Thanks again.
dberri
January 12, 2007
The sample of Powe is pretty small. So I am not sure.
Scalabrine has never been a very productive players. So if the objective is to lose games, then he should play as much as possible.
anon
January 12, 2007
Has there been any work on position efficiency? By that, I don’t mean how efficient a player is at a given position; rather, at what position who a player be most productive. In the context of this post, I feel that one reason Pierce is so effective is he is used as a SG. This could be due to his size or because he historically played that position, but I can imagine some teams placing him at SF given his rebounding skills (though maybe not).
What got me thinking about this was LeBron James. Though he’s an above average SF, he can also pass, which suggests he might make a great PG. And given his size, he could easily be one of the most dominant PG in the league. If the Cavs made that switch, they could abandon some of their guard deadweight (snow and jones) for some high-rebounding forwards.
dberri
January 12, 2007
anon,
I think what you suggest is one of the keys to the Lakers of the 1980s. Their point guard, Magic Johnson, was really a small forward. But the Lakers were able to play Magic at the point. If LeBron can handle the defensive responsibilities, the Cavs could do the same.
KC
January 19, 2007
Leon Powe’s sample size may be too small, but keep an eye on him. I’m pretty happy to see his WP number jump out like that.
I’ve been following him since he was a HS sophomore and he is special. The question remains, can he map his game onto the NBA game? We won’t know that for a while, but the good news for him is that this years’ Celts will struggle enough that he will get more minutes. Knowing Leon, he will work his ass off and make the most of them.