Today I want to talk about three young “stars”: Cameron Maybin, Kevin Durant, and Jamario Moon.
A Star is Benched in Detroit
Cameron Maybin was selected out of high school by the Detroit Tigers with the 10th pick in the 2005 Major League Baseball draft. Maybin was one of the very top talents in that draft, but the signing bonus demanded by Maybin ($2.65 million) caused him to slide to the Tigers.
The 18 year-old spent much of 2006 in Class A baseball. And it was in Class A where he began the 2007 season. After posting a 0.883 OPS with Lakeland, though, he was promoted to Erie and Double A ball. In his first 20 at-bats at Erie he hit four home runs and his OPS stood at 1.58. Consequently the Tigers rushed him to the big leagues, where he made his debut on August 17th.
In his first game in a Tigers uniform he went 0-4 and struck out twice. The next day, though, he faced future Hall-of-Famer Roger Clemens. In the 5th inning of that game he deposited a Clemens pitch over the fence in the deepest part of center field. And a star was born.
Well, at least that’s what people thought. Maybin continue to play, appearing in twelve games from August 17 to September 2. Here is Maybin’s stat line after these first twelve contests.
At-bats: 38
Hits: 6
Home-runs: 1
Batting Average: 0.158
OPS: 0.554
In sum, Maybin’s numbers suggested quite strongly that he was not helping the Tigers win baseball games. Consequently from September 2nd until the end of the season, Maybin had only 11 more at-bats. When the season was over his batting average stood at 0.143 and his OPS was only 0.473. And the home-run off of Clemens in his second game turned out to be the only time he went deep.
At this point Maybin is still considered a future star by the Tigers. But he is not expected to start the 2008 season in Detroit. No, he will go back to the minors. If he performs as expected, he will return to the Tigers eventually. Of course, that’s a big if. If Maybin doesn’t perform as expected he will join the long list of players who looked like future baseball stars, but just never developed. And if that happens, we have seen the last of Cameron Maybin in a Tigers uniform.
A Star is Anointed in Seattle
Now I want to contrast the Maybin story with what we have seen from Kevin Durant. After fourteen games, Kevin Durant is scoring 18.9 points per game. But his scoring is not a result of his ability to get the ball to consistently go in the basket. From two-point range he is only hitting 43% of his shots. From beyond the arc, where he launches nearly five shots per game, he is only successful 28% of the time. In addition, Durant is prone to turnovers and well below average with respect to assists. In essence, once the ball gets into Durant’s hands it is often turned over to the opponent or an errant shot is launched in the direction of the basket. Given this propensity to return the ball to his opponent without scoring points, it’s not surprising that Durant’s WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes] currently stands at -0.056.
In baseball – as we saw with Maybin – such a performance would land you on the bench. Durant, though, doesn’t play a sport where players are evaluated primarily on the numbers. Durant plays a sport where if you score points (and look “good”), you keep playing. So far Durant has started every game and has averaged 34 minutes per contest. In fact he’s averaging more minutes than every other player on Seattle’s roster.
The Tigers sat Maybin because players who can’t produce will cost your team victories. The same is also true for Durant and the Sonics. Currently Durant is on pace to play 2,800 minutes this season. An average shooting guard would produce 5.8 wins in that time. Durant is on pace to produce -3.2 wins, or nine fewer wins than an average player at his position. To put this in perspective, if all of Seattle’s players were average (and they are not), the Sonics would finish with only 32 wins just because Durant has played so badly.
Now it’s possible that Durant will play much better as the season progresses. But what we have seen so far is less than wonderful. Again, if this were baseball I suspect Durant would be sitting a bit more often. I certainly can’t imagine a baseball team giving its worst hitter the most at-bats. Or its worst pitcher the most innings pitched.
A Lesser Known Star in Toronto
Okay, enough on Durant. Let’s turn to a player who entered the league with far less fanfare. Few people took notice when the Toronto Raptors signed the undrafted Jamario Moon this past summer. But after a few weeks of the 2007-08 season it looks like Moon will easily produce more wins this season than Durant. In fact, Moon might have already produced more wins than Durant will in 2007-08. After just ten games Moon has produced 1.4 victories. Durant is going to have to improve substantially to match that total this season.
Moon is not a scorer. He only averages 8.7 points per game and his shooting efficiency is only about average. Moon makes up for his lack of scoring by being well above average with respect to rebounds, steals, and blocked shots. Consequently this small forward has posted a 0.239 WP48 [average is 0.100]. If he continues to play 29 minutes a night he will play about 2,250 minutes before the season is over. If his per-minute performance continues, he will produce 11.2 wins, or about 6.5 wins more than an average small forward would offer in Moon’s time.
Again (as I seem to say in each column I post in November) it’s early. Moon could fall apart in the next few weeks and be out of the league by February. Durant could suddenly start performing like the player we saw at Texas last year. Still, in about the same time it took the Tigers to send Maybin to the bench, we have seen evidence that Durant should no longer be considered The Choice for Rookie of the Year. And maybe Moon should be getting a bit more consideration. I can’t help think, though, that even if Moon and Durant keep posting the same numbers, Durant will still get more consideration for the All-Rookie team (selected by the coaches) and Rookie of the Year (selected by the media). And if that happens, what will that tell us about talent evaluation in baseball and basketball?
– DJ
Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.
The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score
Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:
Simple Models of Player Performance
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.
Wages of Wins Journal 
PJ
November 27, 2007
I know this is mostly thought experiment, and I agree that numbers are used more extensively in baseball, but there are a bunch of other factors at play here. The most important seem to be that 1) Detroit was gunning for the playoffs, Seattle is not, and 2) baseball’s minor leagues are used far more extensively than the NBA’s D-League, and it’s not as embarrassing to return there than it is for a basketball player to head back to Utah or wherever.
In other words, Seattle could know fully well that Durant is not helping them right now, and they might still play him a lot of minutes an let him shoot a lot, because they may believe that’s what’s best for his development. (Maybe they even hope his ineffectiveness will lead them to another high draft pick in 2008… ?)
MarkT
November 27, 2007
I think there are multiple sound “economic” or “competititve” reasons to play Durant. One, no one expects them to win this year so they are not disappointing fans very much by losing but they would be disappointing them more ifyou did not play Durant. Two, because of the draft being in reverse order, you get more talent if you lose so every current period loss is effectively offset by a capital investment in the future. Three, development of the rookie. In baseball there is a strong player development system called the minor leagues but in professional basketball there is not such a strong system.
MattB
November 27, 2007
What was Kobes win share in his first few years?
I seem to remember him shooting his way to efficient play eventually.
Owen
November 27, 2007
Kobe was between 54.4 and 55.2 ts% for the first 8 years of his career. Durant this year is at 49% so far. Kobe’s turnover numbers did fall a lot after his rookie year…
Ben Guest
November 27, 2007
Is anyone keeping a continually updated site of win score like Jason Chandler did last year?
http://www.jasonchandler.com/basketball/
Westy
November 27, 2007
As PJ and MarkT have pointed out, there is a big difference between playing a non-productive player on a potential playoff team (as the Tigers are) versus on a team that doesn’t seem to have much hope of that, and will in essence better their team by performing worse like Seattle.
I would also note that there are likely lots of examples of major league teams playing non-productive youngsters to “get them seasoning”. For sure teams like Tampa Bay have called up young players before they are ‘ready’. I suspect that almost every team that has been eliminated from playoffs gives young players a trial run in September and earlier if they’re eliminated earlier.
As well, while baseball may use higher end statistics more frequently, there are multiple examples of players with seemingly nice stats that really aren’t who continue getting to play. The most common is players playing positions from which hitting productivity is essential (3B, LF, RF, etc.) who hit for a high average but have a low OBP and not a lot of power. Their OPS is low, but their average is high (and that’s all the media cites in the paper) so people think they’re a good hitter and they often continue to play.
Finally, I am curious; you’ve noted that relative to other sports basketball performance is fairly steady. Yet, we can see in baseball, as shown by Mr. Maybin, that some seasoning is necessary to reach the highest level of performance (the major leagues). Even the best players usually require some years of minor league preparation in baseball. Why isn’t this the case with basketball? Are the skills necessary easier to refine? Or is their a basic plateau that must be reached before production becomes steady? And some players may already be past that plateau coming out of high school while others are not. As you noted, players such as Andray Blatche have started to perform better as they become more seasoned. I would suspect that players like D. Diop who had almost no basketball experience prior to the NBA would also take some time to develop. I guess what I’m saying is that wouldn’t it also be the case that a large number of basketball rookies would also be helped by the chance to develop via a minor league? Players who are still maturing physically or skill-wise would seem like the top candidates. And I wonder, with the lack of good opportunities for them to develop, especially if they land on the wrong team, do a lot of these late-comers fall through the cracks?
Rasta
November 27, 2007
I don’t think comparing Durant to Kobe or TMac makes sense. They were both taken later in the draft straight from high school, and were both given time to develop. Neither player averaged 30+ minutes until their 3rd seasons.
A better comparison would be Carmelo Anthony. Both he and Durant played a single year of college ball, both put up excellent college numbers, both were drafted very high, and both were burdened with high expectations from the start.
Carmelo’s rookie numbers:
36.5 minutes
21.0 points
6.1 rebounds
2.8 assists
3.0 TOs
.426 FG%
.322 3-pt%
We all know that Carmelo doesn’t fare too well according to Wins Produced. Yet, he’s been an All-Star, an All-NBA selection (3rd team), and a member of the USA national team.
Not a bad path for Durant to follow.
Owen
November 27, 2007
Certainly not a bad path to follow if he wants to get paid…
Jon
November 27, 2007
I think the Sonics know that Durant is being uneffective right now. What they also know is that he won’t improve my sitting on the bench. They know he has a good shot (his free throw percentage and his college numbers suggest he has a good pure “stroke”, or a good ability to shoot the ball. Right now he is just struggling with shot selection. The Sonic coaches feel the best way for him to learn shot selection is to continue to shoot and see what does and doesn’t work for him. I think Durant is clearly on a path to success, and it is only a matter of time before he becomes an inefficient shooter.
spike
November 27, 2007
The other thing is Durant occasionally does drop big games, it’s just not every night. He had an outstanding game against the Spurs. Let me know when Jamario Moon puts up 25 points on 17 shots, to go with 6 rebounds and 4 assists against the Spurs. Obviously the potential is there, but it’s going to take a while for him to be able to have big games most nights. The best way for him to find that level of consistency is for him to play every night. The kid is 19 with a young body. Nobody is expecting an all star this year.
And if you take away Moon’s game against Chicago, he’s only averaging about 1 steal and 1 block per game, just like Durant.
Dan
November 27, 2007
Put Kevin Durant on a team where he is the 5th option on the court and see if he can be as productive as Jamario Moon. There is alot of NBA players at the end of benches who could put up the numbers Durant put’s up if given the chance. Take a look at Damon Stoudamires stat’s for the first two years when he was in Toronto(New team, no talen. His rookie year he averaged 18 points 9 assits and like 4 or 5 rebounds. Once he went to Portland a playoff team he was an average point guard at best.
Jon
November 27, 2007
you can’t compare a 5-10 pg to a 6-9 shooting guard. Durant can and will be able to get his shot over ANYONE. On any team, he will always be the go-to guy because he of his ability to get his shot off with ease. Once he learns shot selection, Durant will be much closer to the player in San Antonio than the player seen for most of the season
Jason
November 27, 2007
If the shot does not go in, the ability to get the shot off isn’t terribly impressive. On the year 5% of his shots have been blocked, so clearly he doesn’t get his shot off over *everyone*. (For comparison, last year’s high volume shooters in Seattle, Lewis and Allen, had 4% and 3% of their shots blocked. Yes, these are good players with more experience, but it’s clear that there’s more to ‘getting one’s shot off’ than size. Maybe he *will* be able to do this, but presently, he can and does have problems connecting the shot to the goal.)
I don’t know what the future holds for Durant, but it is curious that a guy who could clearly rebound well, well, well above average in a major college program would be shifted to the wing where this skill wouldn’t be showcased. I am not convinced that Seattle really knows what they are doing with him or clear on what makes a player valuable.
JamarioMoonFan33
November 27, 2007
THANK YOU for giving Jamario Moon some much needed props! This guy had 6 blocks and 3 steals on friday’s game against chicago and he is one of the best rookies in the league along with durant, horford, stuckey, yi, and others
mrparker
November 27, 2007
Durant and Carmelo are a great comparison. The major difference is that if Carmelo so chooses he could be a great difference maker at power forward(think more productive Marion) as international competition has shown he could be.
THe major difference between the NBA and theNCAA is that a small forward can make a major contribution in terms of rebounds. In the NBA noone has ever come close to getting 10 boards a game from that position. Correct me if Im wrong please.
So Carmelo could go to the 4 and become a major force in the NBA. However Durant could not do the same.
I feel sorry for SEattle because they were in a terrible position and were stuck drafting him.
He will never be the number 1 guy unless he gifures out to not shoot from further than 10 feet away.
Dave
November 27, 2007
If you had seen Maybin play left field during his stint with the Tigers, you would not have cited numbers as the sole reason for his demotion. The visual evidence was pretty ugly, as Maybin struggled with an unfamiliar position due to the emergence of centerfielder Curtis Granderson.
Meanwhile, Kevin Durant = Bo Lamar.
Jon
November 27, 2007
Durant has the ability to get shit shot over anyone. But due to inexperience and AGE, he has not been able to yet. Is Berri seriously comparing a 27 year old to a 19 year old? Yes, Moon’s rise is fairly surprising, but it is not like he has to go through the same challenges as most rookies, such as physically being over-matched. Anyone who thought Durant was going to come in and shoot lights-out in his rookie season just clearly doesn’t have reasonable expectations. The reason there is so much hype around him is because of his clear skills on the basketball court. He needs to physically develop and get used to playing against people who are stronger than him and able to defend him adequately.
College clearly was not a challenge for him, and in his whole career in basketball, Durant has been able to do whatever he wants on the court. Because he was so much better than everyone else, even at the college level, Durant never learned discipline, which is clearly showing now in his shot selection. That is a skill that comes with experience.
And if you watched Durant rebound at Texas, the reason he was so good was not because he was a great rebounder. In fact, his technique was terrible. He rarely boxed out and found his man. It was just that his arms were so long and he was so tall that he was able to grab so many rebounds. In college, this was a huge advantage. Now that he is in the NBA, the advantage is much smaller because players are much bigger and stronger, which helps negates Durant’s long arms. Once he fills out and learns how to rebound properly, expect him to get more rebounds. Way too much is being expected of a 19 year-old without an NBA body. (Melo and LeBron both were NBA ready physically by the time they entered the league.)
Jon
November 27, 2007
And for Berri claiming Durant would get benched, that is not true. The Sonics are a rebuilding team and are trying to develop its younger players by giving them experience. Look at what the Tigers did with their pitching staff. Did Jeremy Bonderman deserve to pitch all those innings he pitched early in his career? On a rebuilding team, players who have the most potential (as Durant clearly does) get the most playing time. Not the players who are automatically the best
Jason
November 27, 2007
I don’t think that the analogy of young baseball players and young basketball players necessarily holds. The learning curve in both sports is not necessarily comparable. Baseball players do not seem to be nearly as predictable from their very-early career performance and it does appear that many need to hone their skills considerably in order to succeed. Is this similarly true of basketball? Does getting many relatively unsuccessful minutes early in one’s career make a player better? I don’t know and I don’t know that anyone’s done that study, though it would be an interesting one.
(Mr. Parker, though I don’t know if it’s fair to classify him as a “SF” entirely, Larry Bird averaged 10 rebounds a game for his career. It’s rare indeed if someone needs to invoke Bird as an example.)
Westy
November 27, 2007
Jason, you observe, “It is curious that a guy who could clearly rebound well, well, well above average in a major college program would be shifted to the wing where this skill wouldn’t be showcased. I am not convinced that Seattle really knows what they are doing with him or clear on what makes a player valuable.”
We know that SG’s in general rebound less than forwards due only to their floor positioning, so of course KD is going to rebound less than in college. But in WP, isn’t he only weighed against his fellow shooting guards? So the shift to the wing shouldn’t be the reason for his decreased rebounds relative to his position.
However, we know by observation that some SG’s (per instruction from the coach or based on what will help their team most) stay on the perimeter more than most SG’s (i.e. Steve Kerr, etc.) and their rebounds garnered suffer for it.
So the question is, which type of SG should KD be to best serve his team’s needs? One who slashes and crashes the hoop or one who floats on the perimeter. It’s easy to see that due to his low TS% he should be the former. But for someone who shoots as well is Kerr, is it clear?
TimeIntact
November 27, 2007
Interesting numbers game. Glad to see Jamario Moon getting some love. Your last point is thoughtful; if Durant+Moon do end up posting the same numbers it’ll be interesting to see who gets the nod for ROY. .with today’s star-driven world of sports it’d probably be Durant.
Robert
November 27, 2007
Great analysis, however to compare a 27 year old to a 19 year old, is unfair. To compare a 5th option to a 1st option is also unfair. The first is unfair to Durant, as he is clearly just a child physically, and he’ll take bigger bumps than guys like Stoudamire, and Lebron did when they came into the league and follow the path of a guy Mcgrady. However, to say Jamario is a lesser this/that is also unfair. Defenses are keying in on Durant, so while you can blame him for shooting a poor percentage, its against defenses which are keying in on him as option 1. Once he gets used to this, his percentages will rise, and he’ll get a better sense of when/where to get his shots. All star wing players go through this, and I’m glad people realize this is premature.
Moon is playing off of GREAT Point guards, and hustle. He is a driven individual who’s making the most of his freakish athletic ability. Kudos to him on that. But sometimes ask yourself, what would Durant’s numbers look like playing with BOSH, Bargnani, Kapono, Anthony Parker, and the best two-headed PG in the league? Calderon is leading the league in Assists per 48 mins, and Ford is a creative passer, and Moon is simply filling the lanes and making the most of his open looks. How many open looks has Durant had? How many brilliant plays have been orchestrated by Delonte “ghetto” West ? Durant in Toronto would outperform Moon, Moon in Seattle would probably be shooting a worse percentage, and be about 15/7/2/2… but again.. 27 years old.. 19 years old.
Pete
November 27, 2007
Harold A,
The baseball performance is easier to evaluate because there is less team dependency.
Devin
November 27, 2007
“Durant is on pace to produce -3.2 wins, or nine fewer wins than an average player at his position. To put this in perspective, if all of Seattle’s players were average (and they are not), the Sonics would finish with only 32 wins just because Durant has played so badly. ”
But if all of Seattle’s players were average, would Durant “play so badly”?
Kent
November 27, 2007
People, people, people, please notice that the Sonics are 2-12. That’s why this post from dberri is so good. If Durant is so good *right now* as I keep hearing the guys on the radio say than why is his team 2-12.
Kent
November 27, 2007
The more I think about it this is a really good post.
Jon
November 27, 2007
Who are these radio guys? All I hear about is how Durant’s play has been disappointing. Maybe you are confusing good with being closely monitored and potential. That is because he was maybe the greatest freshman to ever play college basketball. And I am sure any compliment that you have heard of Durant is wow, did you see that move, his FUTURE sure looks bright. No analyst or radio guy I know is saying he is a good player right now. They are saying they see glimpses of what a future, more complete Durant is going to look like.
Ben
November 27, 2007
The world is now dumber for having read this. Seriously, bench Durant? Compare him to a #5 option?
At least most here seem to understand basketball is a team sport, Durant is only 19 and the Sonics would be stupid not to play him as much as possible.
Justin
November 27, 2007
I want to see Jamario Moon as the number one option on an NBA team and see if he can be as productive as Durant – there’s no way he’d be even close. Robert took the words right out of my mouth – Jamario Moon doesn’t draw anywhere near the attention from opposing coaches and players like Durant does. Not only this but Durant is carrying a franchise (not to mention one that is in the middle of moving cities) – every pre-game, post-game interview with newspapers, TV, ESPN, blogs like this are about him and his performance. When Jamario Moon who will notice? The media pressure makes a huge difference in playing performance – I think this will hurt him as much as anything else.
By the way Mr. Parker – Larry Bird averaged 10 rebounds a game for his career from the small forward position, and I don’t think you need 10 rebounds a game to have a big affect on the game – Pippen, Worthy, Dr J – all averaged just over 6 a game and they have 12 titles between them (correct me if I’m wrong) – the big difference is that they played with other great players, which at this point aren’t with Durant in Seattle.
Devin
November 27, 2007
Kent, I personally do not think that Durant is “so good *right now*”, but there is clearly a difference between saying that someone is not “so good”, and saying that someone is “bad”, which is effectively what he is saying in the part I quoted.
The part I quoted basically amounts to: “if all of Seattle’s players were average, the Sonics would finish 41-41, however, if all of Seattle’s players were average aside from Durant, they would finish 32-50, just because Durant has played so badly.”
Paulo
November 27, 2007
For what it’s worth, I don’t think comparing Cameron Maybin, or even Jacoby Ellsbury, Joba Chamberlain etc. to Durant would be fair. If, for the sake of argument, Joba was struggling, the Yankees would have sent him back to AAA. Same with Ellsbury. Unfortunately, the NBA never had a minor league till the NBDL came along. And if I’m not mistaken, the CBA prevents/complicates/ players from being shuttled often between leagues. So with this, the Sonics can’t just stash him in the NBDL/Europe/HS/College, and let him develop, work on basics, and take some pressure off of Durant.
Kent
November 27, 2007
Whoa, it seems like I struck a nerve. I wasn’t suggesting the Sonics shouldn’t play Durant or that he wouldn’t be very good in the future. I was just saying this post showed cogently that *right now* his performance is below average. No need for the vitriolic replies!
Kent
November 27, 2007
:-(
The Franchise
November 27, 2007
As has been noted by some others above, the problem for Durant is the same as Anthony: poor shot selection and poor rebounding by a small forward. This is an unfortunate comparison for fans of Seattle; I don’t see him turning into Paul Milsap any time soon, either.
Kent
November 27, 2007
Forget Paul Milsap, at this point I think Seattle fans would settle for him turning into Alex English.
Jon
November 27, 2007
Not at all. Seattle is expecting him to turn into a superstar. Unless you are referring to the fact that Durant will not be in Seattle for too long and probably will never actually reach expectations in Seattle, if only because he will be playing in Oklahoma City
Pete
November 27, 2007
Doesn’t Dean Oliver work for Seattle? I thought he used among other things a system similar to wins produced to evaluate players.
Erich
November 27, 2007
I don’t think your “Small Sample Size” warning is big enough or flashy enough. Don’t give up on Maybin! His BABIP suggests an above average BA to come (though striking out less would be good. How did Granderson develop? How did Chris Young OF look early this season?)
Pete
November 27, 2007
Even if that sample size is sufficient it needs a bonferroni adjustment.
Bauman
November 28, 2007
Why cant people see that Kevin Durant has such a great upside?? The fact that he is averaging close to 20 points per game with a bunch of average players on his team is more than noteworthy.
Now, apparently everyone expects Durant to be one of the best players in the league RIGHT NOW. With the athleticism and talent that is in the league right now (And that will be entering in the future) it is not too easy to be a bona fide superstar right off the bat. It takes time, work and most importantly, learning how to play a different, more complex game: The NBA.
Brett
November 28, 2007
oh my god!
your a joke mate.
give kevin durant chris bosh, t.j ford and then after you do that, hand durant the NBA Championship, and Rookie of the year.
you are pathetic.
durant has no inside prescence…
durant hasnt got a jason kidd like point gaurd.
durant is 19 years old and is playing in a horrible team, and putting up numbers that jamario moon wishes he could do.
if you give jamario moon 20 shots a game, i can garuntee you he would be horrible.
the game isnt about stats.
the game isnt about whose better individually (we all know durants better than moon)
this game is about team basketball.
sadly, durant doesnt have a team.
moon does.
your a joke DJ.
Durant for ROY!.
Brett
November 28, 2007
Bauman,
this is not directed at you.
sorry. it looks like it though lol.
this is directed to the writer
yertu damkule
November 28, 2007
Brett – you’ve clearly not watched Moon play, or only seen highlights. He’s a more complete player than you probably think, not that I disagree entirely – as the #1 option, he probably wouldn’t be as impressive. But Durant’s #s wouldn’t be all that impressive if his primary role were defense, rebounding & running the floor either. For what he’s asked to do within the Raps system, Moon is having a more significant impact on the team than is Durant based solely on the team’s win/loss record. Of course Durant has more upside, is much younger, etc., and as his body fills out & the Sonics actually get a few other players, they’ll improve as well. But to dismiss Moon’s contributions out of hand is short-sighted – the fact he’s cracked the starting lineup (& led the team in minutes played) on a very deep (though, apparently, ignored) team speaks volumes about his contributions. The ability to contribute positively to a team without disrupting chemistry should not be overlooked.
barry
November 28, 2007
I agree, I think it would be hard to imagine Durant even starting for the raptors given the team that they have and what durant would give them
Raptors Homer
November 28, 2007
If you haven’t seen Moon play, then don’t make opinions. If you haven’t seen Durant play, then don’t make opinions.
FACT: Moon plays for the Raptors and Durant plays for the Sonics.
Stop commenting about how good Durant would be if he played with Bosh, Bargs and Ford… or how horrible Moon would be with the Sonics.
I’m a Moon fan, so if he stays consistent till the end of the season, he should get consideration. Just because Durant has the name, doesn’t mean he should be considered based on that. We have to evaluate performance here.
Sean
November 28, 2007
I have only seen highlights and stats for Durant, but I have watched every minute that Moon has played this year for the Raps, and I can tell you he is on track to be great. While the stats show some of his great defensive play, they don’t show all. He consistently gets in your face, causes turnovers, takes away passing lanes and alters shots. Offensively, he is unselfish and alot of his scoring comes at very key moments in the ball game, another stat which is not recorded. While Durant appears to be a more gifted scorer, and may have equal or more upside than Moon, I can’t imagine he is more effective on the floor than Jamario. This league seriously needs to consider defensive play as equally if not more valuable than offensive play. I believe that the true MVP in the years 2002-2005 was Ben Wallace, and he got no consideration for that title.
If you aren’t familiar with Moon, I should point out that his attitude appears to be a big part of his game as well. He is always amongst the hardest working on the floor, while at the same time constantly smiling and laughing. I’m not talking about Vince Carter laughing, where he just loses his intensity and drive when a few things go wrong for him in the game. Moon pulls it off with confidence and composure.
Devin
November 28, 2007
“Whoa, it seems like I struck a nerve. I wasn’t suggesting the Sonics shouldn’t play Durant or that he wouldn’t be very good in the future. I was just saying this post showed cogently that *right now* his performance is below average. No need for the vitriolic replies!”
Kent, for the sake of argument, let’s just say assume that Durant’s performance is indeed below average *right now*.
Ok, now, it’s one thing to look at something and measure it in it’s current state (the play of the other Seattle players, and the play of Durant), or to *describe* something. But it’s an entirely different thing to suggest that you could just change all of the other variables “if all of Seattle’s players were average” and assume that Durant’s play stays constant and that he would not only bring the team down, but make the team 9 games worse!
mrparker
November 28, 2007
If Durant was that good Texas wouldn’t have lost in the sweet 16…. What happened in the tournament was a great illustration of Durant’s limitations.
His team got no offensive rebounds and he couldn’t take the pressure off of Augustine by taking over the offense.
Durant may well turn out to be an efficient scorer but as long as he brings no assists and no rebounds to the table he will not be a valuable no. 1 guy.
Jon
November 28, 2007
Mr. Parker, the sweet 16 is a terrible point. Durant completely dominated college basketball. Amazing scorer, great rebounder, and even did superb in blocks and rebounds. He was always able to take over the offense… look at his stats! The Sweet 16 is one game, and as anyone knows, basketball is a team sport and in march madness anything can happen. That was one of the lamest points I have read on this sight.
For a shooting guard, Durant is rebounding well. According to dberri, Durant should only be compared to other shooting guards. While he does need to improve his assists, if he becomes an efficient player he will be a very, very good player. He has already shown ability to rebound for his position.
dberri
November 28, 2007
Jon,
Okay, I got to call you on this one. Mr. Parker’s comment on the Sweet 16 was one the lamest points? Have you read the other comments? You may disagree (hell, I might disagree), but there is no way that ranks anywhere near the top of the lamest comments we have seen.
Erich
November 28, 2007
I went a huntin’ for Jamario Moon stats. From what I found, the only statistical sign of his potential was with his time with the Gary Steelheads where he posted a .359 WS/Min in 676 minutes (the biggest sample I found too). Otherwise, the only piece of promising information was his place as 2nd best blocker ever on the Albany Pats with 168. Thats quite a few blocks, though I’m not sure of the length of stay.
To get this info, I put together a spreadsheet with the following sources:
http://www.usbl.com/statuploads/infoGAR.txt
http://www.steelheadshoops.com/team/index.html?player_id=13#
http://www.basketball-reference.com/nbdl/teams.cgi?team=FTW&year=2006
http://www.albanypats.com/history/index.html
http://dougstats.com/PreSeasonRD.txt
Maybe Bosh’s unfortunate injury will give us a better feel of Jamario’s potential.
Baba O'Riley
November 28, 2007
Durant missed 15 of 21 shots tonight!! See http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/boxscore?gid=2007112825
But Brett would say that’s a good performance because he got off 21 shots and Moon wouldn’t have been able to do that.