Pat Riley – head coach of the Miami Heat – was watching basketball on Sunday. This is not unusual for an NBA coach. What is unusual is that he was personally watching a college game.  Apparently Riley has decided that coaching an NBA team is not enough of a challenge, so he has taken it upon himself to go scout players for the upcoming NBA draft.
Although we can laugh about this course of action, it does make some sense. The Heat are finishing a disastrous season. And at this point, Riley coaching the team to more wins (not sure that’s actually possible, but that’s a story for another day) is not going to help. Miami is currently in the hot pursuit of lottery balls, and if the lottery gods smile upon this team, the Heat will land a top choice in the draft. Such a choice could produce many wins, both next season and for years in the future.
Obviously the more balls, the better the chance at a great pick. And equally obvious, getting the great pick is only half the battle. Once you secure the choice, you need to pick the right player.
Scouting Eric Gordon
Hence we come to the truly odd part about yesterday. Riley was watching the Indiana Hoosiers lose to Penn State. The only top NBA prospect in Sunday’s game was Eric Gordon. Gordon plays shooting guard, the same position as Dwyane Wade. Wade is the only truly great player the Heat are sure to bring back next season. So it seems odd that Riley would be interested in Gordon.
And that’s not the only odd part of this story. The truly strange twist in this tale is the play of Eric Gordon and how this was covered in the media. On Sunday the Indiana Hoosiers lost to Penn State. The Associated Press article included the following quote in the recap of the game:
Gordon nearly single-handedly got the Hoosiers back in the game after Indiana went the first 5:29 of the second half without a field goal to trail 36-30. A 3-point play and three 3-pointers by Gordon during a 14-0 run put Indiana ahead 46-38 with 11 minutes left in regulation.
What’s missing from this take on the game is what happened outside this 14-0 run. For the game Gordon only hit 8 of 24 shots. So outside this run, he was only successful on 5 of 20 shots from the field. Plus he committed five turnovers. His Win Score – which takes into account all the stats in the box score – was -5.0 in the game. In other words, one could argue that Gordon single-handedly took the Hoosiers out of this contest.
To see this argument, imagine if this was a football game and Gordon was the quarterback. In one drive, Gordon manages to move the team the length of the field completing all of his passes. But if Gordon was throwing interceptions and incomplete passes before and after that drive, the story of the game would be that the quarterback cost the team the victory.
In basketball, though, such analysis is rarely seen. Gordon was the leading scorer for the Hoosiers. Therefore, he must have been a positive for his team.
29Â Games of Gordon
Gordon played 29 games before facing Penn State on Sunday. When we look at Gordon across these games, we do see that his woeful shooting on Sunday was an anomaly. Gordon’s adjusted field goal percentage is 54.2%, which is quite good.
Let me put Gordon’s shooting in perspective. The other top shooting guard who is expected to be available in the NBA draft is O.J. Mayo of USC. Mayo’s adjusted field goal percentage is 53.0%, and again, that’s quite good. Despite this performance, though, here is how Chad Ford describes Mayo at ESPN.com.
It’s clear Mayo’s going to be a great NBA scorer … but will he give a team anything else? Â
When we compare Gordon and Mayo we see that the latter produces more – on a per-minute basis – rebounds, assists, and steals. Mayo also commits fewer turnovers. In sum, if we are concerned that Mayo isn’t going to give anything beyond scoring, shouldn’t we have the same concern about Gordon? And yet, in the mock drafts I have seen, Gordon is consistently rated as the better prospect (and Ford describes Gordon as a “do-it-all combo guard that is already lighting up the box score”)
The Win Score story
When we turn to Win Score – a metric that can tell us something about lighting up a box score — we see little reason to be optimistic about Gordon or Mayo. Entering Sunday’s action, Gordon had posted a 6.7 Win Score per 40 minutes (WS40) played. Mayo has a mark of 6.0. When we look at all shooting guards drafted out of college between 1991 and 2006 (and who played at least some significant minutes in the NBA), we see an average WS40 of 8.7 the last year the player played college basketball. In other words, Gordon and Mayo are far below average.
To put “far below average” in perspective, here are the shooting guards with a WS40 below 7.0 (again from 1991 to 2006): Kareem Rush, Kirk Snyder, Toby Bailey, Tony Dumas, Lawrence Moten, Courtney Alexander, Ed Gray, DeJuan Wheat, Chris Smith, Jimmy King, Felipe Lopez, Larry Hughes, and Jamal Crawford.
Now that is not an impressive list of NBA talent. I didn’t bother to look, but I am guessing that none of these players have a career Win Score that’s above average. And I know some of these players are very far below average.
When we look over this list, one has to wonder why Riley was scouting Eric Gordon. Miami already has Dwyane Wade (college WS40 = 11.9). And it doesn’t look like Gordon -despite his ability to score in college – is going to help any NBA team win many NBA games next season.Â
And yes, the same story can be told about O.J. Mayo. Given what each of these players are doing in college, it seems likely that any team drafting these players in the lottery in 2008 will be printing a ticket to the lottery in 2009. In other words, if it’s Miami that takes Gordon or Mayo, Riley might just have to plan on scouting college talent next spring as well.Â
-DJ
Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.
The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score
Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:
Simple Models of Player Performance
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.
Wages of Wins Journal 
logan
March 10, 2008
I love this analysis! Is there anywhere I can find more information on college winscore? How do big name players like Beasley, Love, Rose, Bayless, Budinger etc… compare to lesser known/hyped players like Courtney Lee, DJ Augustin, Mbah a Moute, Russell Westbrook, Kyle Weaver.. I dunno I’m trying to think of more. But anyway great analysis, keep it up! favorite blog on the internet!
Sam Cohen
March 10, 2008
Is there any evidence on how a player’s win score changes (or doesn’t) while a player is in college? I’m just curious to know if Mayo and Gordon look worse in this comparison because they are being compared to other player’s sophomore/junior/senior season win scores.
That said, I haven’t seen Gordon play at all this season, and I’ve haven’t been too impressed by what I’ve seen of Mayo. Glad to see my impression matches up with the numbers.
John G
March 10, 2008
I also think this is terrific analysis. I just hope that if the Bulls end up with a high pick they avoid these guys (and Brook Lopez, for that matter).
Sam, John Hollinger wrote an article about the draft last year, and according to his model age matters quite a bit. I’d think win score would show this as well, but I have no proof for that. Mayo is an older freshman if I remember correctly.
On a slightly related note, is there a database for college basketball statistics? I can find current players through ESPN, but even the pages for Durant and Oden, while still up, are empty. Thanks for the help!
Tim
March 10, 2008
Some of you may be interested in an article from earlier this year regarding the 2008 draft:
A
March 10, 2008
In addition to Wade, the Heat drafted Daequan Cook this past year (another suspect shooting guard from the Big 10).
Erich
March 10, 2008
Thanks for posting the link, Tim.
There will be a more extensive article on NBA draft prospects posted in a month or two. Keep your eyes here for that one!
Re: Shooting %’s
I tend to be skeptical of shooting % as an effective indicator of professional success, as the first two names that come to mind are Morrison and Reddick.
John G,
For NCAA stats, I have used Sportsline’s stat pages to gather data for analysis, though I believe you may find the Draftexpress.com database as prettier and easier to use. It has a better interface and even calculates WS/40 in the usage stats.
Westy
March 10, 2008
Good post, Dave.
So if an NBA team needs a SG, who might you recommend?
As a Wolves fan, I’m very wary of the possibility we could end up with Gordon or Mayo.
Let’s just say I’m really hoping for Beasley.
JonathanG
March 10, 2008
Here is where you can see the Win Scores for all the prospects in college basketball: http://www.draftexpress.com/stats.php?year=2007/08&league=NCAA&per=pergame&qual=prospects&q=usage&sort2=DESC&pos=&stage=&min=20&sort=9
You can sort it to look at only players projected to be drafted this year or next here: http://www.draftexpress.com/stats.php?sort=9&league=NCAA&q=usage&year=2007%2F08&per=pergame&min=20&stage=all&pos=all&qual=20082009
You can also go back through the years and see how guys stacked up.
What’s interesting is that two other guards projected as top 10 picks in Jerryd Bayless and DJ Augustin also have very poor scores.
I don’t think its fair personally to look at Dwyane Wade’s Win-score as a junior (his last year at Marquette) and compare it with Gordon and Mayo’s as freshman.
Just one example of a guy who was a great college player (a real winner, led his team to the NCAA tournament finals a sophomore) but doesn’t rank as being a very impressive player in Win Score is Jordan Farmar for example. He posted a paltry 3.0 in his draft year as a sophomore: http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Jordan-Farmar-221/stats/
Deron Williams had a 6.0 in his draft year as a junior (5.4 as a sophomore): http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Deron-Williams-72/stats/
Brandon Roy had a 7.2 as a sophomore (don’t have his freshman numbers unfortunately), and improved significantly after that.
So as we can see, there have been quite a few guards to rank out poorly on Win Score and still go on to have nice NBA careers.
MarkT
March 10, 2008
I wonder if you have enough data on these freshmen to make a prediction with confidence. I read the DraftExpress writeup on OJ Mayo and it seems he has made a lot of good passes that his teammates have failed to convert to assists. Also his defense which does not register in WoW is “outstanding” according to that site. He is an inefficient scorer but that is, in part, blamed on his teammates.
JonathanG
March 10, 2008
regarding why Pat Riley went out to scout Eric Gordon…
1) Dwyane Wade is a very ball-dominant combo guard. He is a very capable playmaker, as evidenced by the 7.5 assists per game he averaged last year. Regardless of the type of player Miami brings in, Wade is going to continue to be their primary ball-handler. The advantage of having a player like him on the floor is that you can easily play him next to a smaller guard who will defend the PGs, but play off the ball and be responsible for keeping the defenses honest.
Gordon, Bayless and Mayo fit that mold perfectly, as they are all excellent shooters. Derrick Rose would not, as it will take him significantly more time to extend his range out to the NBA 3-point line, and having another non-shooter on the floor (alongside Wade) just begs teams to crowd the paint and/or play zone.
2) You can’t not scout players just because you aren’t sure that they are exactly what you need. See: Sam Perkins over Jordan. NBA personnel absolutely have to do their due diligence. Riley will scout Gordon, but he will also go and check out Beasley, Rose, Bayless, Mayo, etc, just to have all his bases covered if they get the 4th or 5th pick. That’s just part of his job.
MemphisX
March 10, 2008
Good analysis.
I am not big on win score but I respect it. You can never have to much info when scouting prospects.
Sam Bowie
March 10, 2008
not Sam Perkins.
Matt
March 10, 2008
First off Riley is just doing his do dilligence on all top prospects. Gordon happens to be at least in the top 10 this year why not see what hes got. That doesnt mean he is drafting him.
Second Wade is the primary ball handler because the Heat dont have talent around him. Of course they want it in his hands instead of jason williams. You would be crazy to think Derrick Rose wouldnt be a better fit. Imagine Rose pushing the rock with wade and Marion on the wings? That would allow Wade to do what he does best, finish at the hoop. I could even make an argument that he may be a better fit than the monster beasley, but only time will tell with that.
Either way, if the heat lose the lottery they worst case will have the 4th pick so scouting prospects besides rose and beasley is a must so he(the man in charge) can determine who will help immediately and mesh with wade and marion
Okapi
March 10, 2008
“…According to Mark Cuban, the Mavericks’ owner, the percentage of uncontested scoring chances has increased markedly since Kidd returned to Dallas, his original N.B.A. team, and began flinging passes…”
Pete23
March 11, 2008
Welcome back Okapi!
Zappatista
March 11, 2008
Well….he may have been taking a look at the B10 Player of the Year as well. DJ will be around in the draft awhile and they may be able to scoop him up in the second round…..
Tim
March 11, 2008
Professor Berri, I wondered if you would comment on ESPN’s list of the greatest shooting guards, which has Kobe Bryant at number 2, Allen Iverson at number 5, and Pete Maravich at number 8. Something tells me you would not agree. Do you have the statistics available to make your own top ten list? Who are the most underrated shooting guards in history?
Tim
March 11, 2008
Sorry, here’s the link to the ESPN article on shooting guards:
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/dailydime?page=dime-GreatestSGs&lpos=spotlight&lid=tab1pos1
dberri
March 11, 2008
Hi Tim,
I saw the list. I can only go back to 1977-78 (I think that is the first year with TO data). But even with that limited data set, I am pretty sure Iverson is not in the top ten. Not even sure he is in the top ten this year.
dom
March 11, 2008
Miami is in good shape with 3 options. Option 1, Beasley—-With haslem and marion, we can play small ball and thats a great front line, with wade and cook or dorell wright. or, riley does a sign and trade with haslem and gets his PG.
2. Rose and Wade in the back court, with marion, thats an awesome top 3. THen, Riley does his trade he WILL pull off this summer for a Big(j oneil, brand) , and we are looking good.
#3. written above, they get gordon, mayo, or bayless. With Wade and Marion, thats a great 3, and he pulls off a sign and trade for a big, or keeps haslem and has a great small ball team——–Plus,. ZO is still a good center and has something to prove w/o shaq———-Remember, wade was not wade this year, with a healthy wade, marion, and top 4 pick along with (wright ,cook,haslem), thats a great young nucleaus——-Miami is back in the postseason in 09. all agree with a healthy wade and RIley who hates life now is pulling off j oneil or e brand ——–add 1 of them for haslem, r davis and j williams in a sign and trade, and Miami is back
dom
March 11, 2008
To be honest, to the poster above, I do see where you say they might be better off with Rose, as you have wade and marion on the wings with wade’s (healthy wade) penetrating, and haslem banging(plus Riley will get a blockbuster done,, BUT, With wade, marion, and beasley, thats a pretty talented team, as you have haslem doing the dirty work, and beasley would be a like an amare stoudemire but with range, and wade and marion run like in phoenix——-I am hoping for The #1 or #2 pick, and I wouldnt be mad with 2, or 4. Gordon, mayo are freshman, so those #’s should be looked at 2 years from now, as wade was a 3 year (1 redshirt year) player. AND, Dorell wright would be a SR in college this year and a lottery pick and Dequean cook would be a sophmore, and would have had a great year guiding OSU to the dance, and probably a top 5 over mayo and gordon this year. SO< since Wright and Cook barely played much, its like adding 3 lottery players this year. Technically it is isnt it?
John G
March 12, 2008
I’m not sure the future for the Heat is quite as optimistic as you say. They have an interesting core, but not much depth. I would hesitate to count Daequan Cook as part of the solution to anything. Is there any kind of track record for guys who shoot that poorly to improve? I don’t think he’d be picked any higher this year, and for good reason.
Erich
March 12, 2008
Jonathan G,
Thanks for your input, in this thread and elsewhere. I always tend to use a scout’s rankings as my baseline, then color it with statistics like Win Score in writing an article.
As for the Heat fans, well… how ’bout them Dolphins?
Steve
March 13, 2008
I think Riley might have been taking a look at DJ White……… maybe thinking that he may be a David West type of Power Forward that he can get late in the 1st round or early 2nd round (Just like West was) and end up being a 20/10 Power Forward that can give them a good lowpost presence and 2nd offensive option……….. instead of drafting Beasley they can draft a Deandre Jordan as a project at center (That Zo can mentor), and then take DJ White as an NBA-Ready Power Forward???????………………… if I was Riley I would trade the lotto pick and Shawn Marion for Elton Brand anyways…….. Wade will be back to 100% health next year and back to his pre-injury form as the special player we saw in 06-07 and prior to that, and Brand would be a PERFECT 2nd option and lowpost presence when he is 100% healthy again as well, plus he’s only 2 years older than Wade so they can go the next 7 or 8 years together with a contender built around them……. that would be a DYNAMITE DUO to build a championship contender around.
Put a sharpshooter at starting PG in the backcourt next to Wade(Example: Damon Jones/Steve Blake), a sharpshooter/defender at starting SF (Example: James Posey/Shane Battier), a defensive/banger/picksetter/hustle guy at starting center (Example; Gana Diop/kendrick Perkins) next to Brand, keep Wright, Banks, Zo, and Haslem to make up your bench, and you are in GREAT shape to go for 50+ wins next year, and the future is VERY bright as well for the next 8 or so years. That is what I would do.
and if I couldnt get Brand then I would trade Marion for Jermaine Oneal (IF I KNEW HE IS HEALTHY) and keep the lotto pick.
Wade will be back to 05/06/07 pre-injury form by next year as the true great young player that we all knew and loved as well. That is most important for the heat, and great for all true fans of the game.
Steve
March 13, 2008
People forget how good a healthy Dwyane Wade is.
Before he got hurt last year he was carrying them without Shaq to a .500 record. That was J-Will, Posey, Haslem and Zo in the starting lineup with him…….. you dont think a lotto pick and Marion added to that and replace J-Will with Marcus Banks that theyre at least a .500 team in the East with a healthy Wade at pre-injury form leading them (Plus he’ll probably be even better as he’s 26 years old and heading into his prime)……….
anyways, if Im riley I would trade the lotto pick and Marion for Elton brand. Even if it is the number 1 pick……… I dont think Beasley is gonna be a power forward, I could see him being an 8 rebound a night guy but I see him as a small forward that cant be the lowpost option that you need, i see him more as a Carmelo Anthony……..
I would trade for Elton Brand, or trade Marion for Jermaine Oneal if I couldnt pull off for brand.
If I got Brand, I would go out and sign Diop to team up with Zo as my centers, I would go out and get Damon Jones to start in the backcourt with Wade (Or if not Jones then some other sharpshooting PG), and I would get a sharpshooting/defender to start at Small Forward like Eddie Jones did for them in 05 or Posey did for them in 06 and 07…… preferably Posey if possible, another option would be Mike Miller but then forget Damon Jones I would start Marcus Banks at point if Miller was the guy I got at the 3 (Banks is a great defender on the perimeter)…… Banks is a keeper regardless as backup and Wright keep as your future starting SF and a definite rotation guy for next year, Zo for backup center or starting center teamin with Diop, and Haslem as backup 4 as the last guy filling up my rotation, as well as the lotto pick if its a healthy Jermaine Oneal I get instead of Brand (ONLY IF I CANT GET BRAND).
Thats what I would do. Trade Marion and the lotto pick for Elton Brand, or Haslem and the lotto pick plus expirings for Brand if possible. Lets say I had to get rid of Marion (If not then a big 3 with Wade, Brand and Marion is GRAVY!), but lets say i dont.
My lineup for next year heading into the future would be VERY GOOD.
Diop/Zo
Brand/Haslem
shooter/defender/Wright
Wade
shooter/Banks
say the shooters are Damon Jones at the 1 and James posey at the 2……… that is STRAIGHT! Plus an NBA-Ready 2nd round pick to be rotation guy (Like a big baby/carl landry type)…….. THE HEAT HAVE PLENTY OF OPTIONS, RILEY cOuld GET theM BACK iN THE RACE eaSY FOR NEXT YEAR, eSPECIALLy wITH WADE 100% HEATLHY AND BACK TO PRE-INJURY FORM!
(Could trade some bums for Zach Randolph and still Keep Marion and the lotto pick too, or keep the lotto pick and get Jermaine Oneal)
Riley and Wade will get it done……. as a fan how great would a Wade/Brand inside/out duo be?!?!? THAT WOULD BE DYN-o-MITE!
Dallas Bender
March 13, 2008
I fully recognize the possibility that Eric Gordon will not turn out to be an NBA superstar in the future. However, to reach this conclusion based upon his Win Score or Adjusted Field Goal Percentage is ridiculous.
Eric Gordon has only played 30 games for IU. And 12 of those games have been with an injured wrist that requires Gordon to wear a padded wrap. Prior to the injury, Gordon was shooting 48% from the floor and 41% from 3’s. After the injury, Gordon has shot 39% from the floor and 29% from 3’s.
Gordon has had trouble dribbling with is left hand and catching the ball with two hands. These troubles have led to increased turnovers and fewer easy baskets.
To evaluate Gordon almost entirely based upon his statistics and his play in one game while he was injured, without so much as mentioning the fact that he was injured is beyond idiotic.
Gordon may not be a great NBA player. Gordon may not be the best player in this draft. Gordon may not be the 5th best player in this draft. But a healthy Eric Gordon is the most effective and efficient scorer of any guard in this draft. Period.
kkkk
July 30, 2008
heres your answer anybody can score in the nba its all about letting any player play. for instance if you let tinsley just shoot shoot and shoot and he goes 10 for 16 thats a good game but if jordan goes 12 for 31 thats bad but he’s considerd to have played well thats buull sh tinsley was the better player
kkkk
July 30, 2008
in my opinion the greatest player ever was oscar robertson he didnt just shoot shoot and shoot if he would have not pass the ball he could have had more 50 point games than jordan but he didnt he did it allsooo there u have it the big o was is all ways be the greatest ever jordan would not have stop him if they played all oscar would have done was back him up and dont think about blocking his shothigh ark