My students this semester look to be about twenty years old. This means that they were born in the late-1980s, or sometime around the time when I was a college student (and yes — as I rapidly approach forty — that makes you feel a bit old).
After writing my last post – comparing Hakeem Olajuwon and Patrick Ewing (the latest Hall-of-Fame centers) – I started to wonder: Who is the best center in the lives of my students?
If start the clock sometimes in the eighties we have a few candidates. But I think two stand above all others.
The first center I am thinking of has the following characteristics:
- More than $250 million in career earnings
- Nine times named to the first team All-NBA team
- One MVP award
- Four times played for the NBA champion
These same characteristics were as follows for the second center:
- About $118 million in career earnings
- Four times named to the first team All-NBA team
- One MVP award
- Twice played for the NBA champion
When we look at salaries, awards, and championships, it’s pretty clear the first center is number one. But when we look at the Wages of Wins metrics. a different story is told.
Admiral vs. Shaq
Table One: Comparing the Career Averages of Shaquille O’Neal and David Robinson
Table One compares the career averages – across the box score statistics and Win Score – for Shaquille O’Neal (center #1) and David Robinson (center #2). When we look at the individual stats, we see that Shaq offered more in terms of shooting efficiency from the field, points scored, rebounds, and assists. The Admiral had the advantage in free throw shooting, steals, turnovers, blocked shots, and personal fouls. When we put the whole picture together – via Win Score – we see that Robinson comes out ahead.
How does this difference translate into wins?
Table Two: Comparing the Career Performances of David Robinson and Shaquille O’Neal
Table Two compares each player in terms of Wins Produced and WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes]. Through the 2007-08 season, Shaq had played 3,401 more minutes in his career. Consequently, the Wins Produced story is quite similar (each produced a bit more than 250 wins in his career).
When we turn to WP48, though, we see that Robinson has posted the better mark. How much better? Had Shaq’s WP48 been equivalent to the Admiral’s, he would have produced 31.4 additional wins in his career.
And by making one change to his game, Shaq could have achieved this production level. For his career Shaq has hit 52% of his free throws. In contrast, Robinson connected on 74% of his shots from the line. Has Shaq matched Robinson’s efficiency from the line, he would have produced 32.9 additional wins in his career and posted a 0.365 career WP48. Robinson’s career mark was 0.363, so we see that Shaq’s inconsistency at the charity stripe could be considered the one factor that held him back.
Perceptions of Robinson
Although Shaq was less productive, it’s still the case that he has been paid more and received more awards. Part of the difference in pay can be attributed to Shaq playing in more recent years and generally playing in a larger market. The awards, though, are probably a different story.
Table Two not only reports the performance of Robinson and O’Neal, but also the average performance of their teammates (or everyone else on the team not named The Admiral or Shaq). To give some perspective to these numbers, in 2007-08 the average WP48 of the teammates (or non-stars) on an NBA team was 0.076. In Shaq’s first two years – and in Miami in the first part of 2007-08 – his teammates were below average. In every other season, though, O’Neal was able to play with above average teammates. In fact in nine seasons his teammates WP48 surpassed the 0.100 mark.
Above average teammates was also the norm for Robinson, but only after Tim Duncan arrived in 1997. Prior to Duncan’s arrival, Robinson’s teammates posted an average WP48 of 0.076. In other words, unlike Shaq, for much of his career Robinson did not have an exceptional team around him. As a consequence, Robinson’s teams did not win as often as the team’s employing Shaq. And one suspects – like we saw with Kevin Garnett before he arrived in Boston – the failings of Robinson’s teammates dimmed the perceptions of the Admiral’s performance.
As I have noted in the past, the purpose of player statistics is to separate a player from his teammates. In other words, the analysis of player statistics should prevent us from confusing the performance of the team from the performance of the player. And when we look at all the stats – including Shaq’s woeful performance at the line – it appears that despite the edge in championships, awards, and money, Shaq is not quite as productive as The Admiral.
Okay, the Admiral tops Shaq. But across the last twenty years, is Robinson even the best Spur? To answer this question, let’s look back at Table One, where the career statistical averages of Duncan are also reported. As one can see, Robinson offered more in his career. If we turn to Wins Produced we see that Duncan has produced 211.9 wins in 30,610 career minutes. This works out to a WP48 of 0.332. This is about what Shaq has done across his entire career, although we have to remember that Shaq’s career numbers are deflated by his last two seasons. If Duncan insists on playing until the bitter end, his career numbers will also take a hit.
What about The Dream?
What about the subjects of the last post, Olajuwon and Ewing? Ewing – who was still very good – offered less than Olajuwon, Shaq, Duncan, and Robinson. When we look at Olajuwon, though, we see that he produced 272.1 career wins. This mark bests the other four players we considered. But Olajuwon played nearly 10,000 more minutes in his career than Robinson. If we turn to WP48, we see that Robinson’s career mark of 0.363 easily tops Olajuwon’s mark of 0.295.
Of course, some might notice that Robinson didn’t keep playing until his productivity descended into the average range. In other words, had Robinson – like Shaq and Olajuwon – played until he couldn’t play anymore, perhaps the Admiral’s career numbers would be lower. Although this might be true, we should also note that Robinson not only was better across his career, he was better at the peak of his career as well. To see this point consider how many times each of these players surpassed a WP48 of 0.400 or 0.0300:
- Robinson: +0.400 in three season, +0.300 in 11 seasons
- O’Neal: +0.400 in one season, +0.300 in 12 seasons
- Olajuwon: +0.400 in one season, +0.300 in 9 seasons
- Duncan: never surpassed 0.400, +0.300 in 8 seasons
- Ewing: never surpassed 0.300 or 0.400
This list reveals that Robinson, at his peak, surpassed the performance of any of the other centers we considered. And that includes Olajuwon.
Let me close by considering an argument people often offer in evaluating basketball players. Often when considering whether player A is better than player B, people look at how the two players performed against each other. Although this approach might work in a sport like boxing or tennis, it’s not appropriate in basketball. Basketball is a five-on-five sport. What matters is how a player contributes to his team’s success, not how he performs relative to one person on another team. And when we consider each player’s contribution to team success, it looks like The Admiral was the most productive center in the NBA since the 1980s.
– DJ
The WoW Journal Comments Policy
Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.
The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score
Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:
Simple Models of Player Performance
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.
Vince Gagliano
September 7, 2008
Okay, first off, the central idea behind win Scores is that players are competing for 1230 Wins per NBA season (30 teams x 41 wins for the average team)
The currency of these wins is limited, as in any other economic system, and the competition to get these wins is what drives the NBA win economy. Enter Wins Produced.
Assuming an average of 360 players on an NBA roster (30 teams x 12 active players per team), an average player will produce 1230/360=3.4 wins, regardless of position.
So if Chris Paul produced 25.4 wins last year, then he was actually 25.4/3.4=7.5 times more productive than the average player in this model, instead of the fourfold measure that his .406 WP48 suggests.
To segue into this, Shaq has gotten to play with above average teammates most of his career. But it’s possible that his teammates may have taken a sizable number of wins from his career total. After all, he has had Anfernee Hardaway, Kobe Bryant, Dwyane Wade, and Steve Nash as teammates. Without these guys, teams may have had to rely on Shaq more, increasing his production.
This is why LeBron James didn’t get a better supporting cast in Cleveland than what he has had in his career. He still ended up as the NBA’s scoring champion and joined Michael Jordan and Oscar Robertson as the only guys to score 30 points, grab 7 rebounds, and dish out 7 assists per game in a season.
But Boston’s Big Three had dips in their numbers when they played last year, and for good reason. Nobody on the team scored more than 20 points per game, with Ray Allen having the biggest dip in scoring (-9.0 to 17.4)
I rest my case.
dberri
September 7, 2008
Vince,
Last year KG did more in Boston, on a per-minute basis, then he did in Minnesota the year before. The same is true of Paul Pierce and Ray Allen. Yes, there are diminishing returns in the NBA. But I have not found the effect to be that large.
Tommy_Grand
September 7, 2008
Technically, Tim Duncan plays power forward, not center.
dberri
September 7, 2008
Tommy,
Yes, I know. But I thought I would throw him in the post since he was a Spur.
ejfischer
September 7, 2008
Thank you for this post, I’ve been hoping you would do an analysis of David Robinson. You might want to correct the comparison of career accomplishments in your opening, though: Robinson twice played for the NBA champion, in 1999 and 2003.
dberri
September 7, 2008
ejfischer,
Thanks. I fixed it.
Kent
September 7, 2008
This is an awesome post. Thank you very much.
Vince Gagliano
September 7, 2008
Dave,
Yes, KG did do more on a per-minute basis in Boston than he did in Minnesota.
But he also played fewer minutes (-667 to 2328) and generated fewer overall wins (-2.7 to 17.9) than the year before.
Discounting Ray Allen’s 2007 season, where he played 18 fewer games in that season than in 2008, and Paul Pierces, where he missed 35 games, we see these same trends in action.
I was not discussing WP48, which measures productivity in set time intervals, so much as overall productivity in the season.
And regardless of Win Scores, there are marked effects when stars change supporting casts.
From his first world championship in 2000 to 2003, at the apex of his time with Shaq, Kobe Bryant averaged 26.7 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 5.3 assists per game.
Then in 2004, the Lakers brought aging, but halfway decent stars in Gary Payton and Karl Malone to the lineup. As a result, Bryant’s numbers dipped to 24.0, 5.5, and 5.1.
Afterwords, Shaq got traded, and Payton and Malone retired. As a result, Bryant’s averages spiked to 31.8 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 5.3 assists from 2005 to 2007. His two NBA scoring titles were proof that the Lakers were relying on him to carry the load.
Enter Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol. Taking the 2008 season as a whole, Kobe chipped in 28.3, 6.3, and 5.4. Much of this can be attributed to the “trusting his teammates” mantra that the media used oh so often in that period. The increase in his rebounding numbers, the Lakers’ top seed in the West, and the improvement in PR created a perfect storm that carried Bryant all the way to his first MVP award.
In four seasons in Orlando, Tracy McGrady averaged 28.1 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 5.2 assists per game. Mind you, most of these games were without Grant Hill, who, if healthy, could have helped make Orlando a championship-contending team in the East.
In four seasons in Houston, age, injuries, and Yao Ming have cut these numbers down to 24.1, 5.8, and 5.8. Maybe the gap isn’t large, but it is still there.
Just a thought.
TRad
September 7, 2008
Wow. I remember my very primitive, TENDEX based analysis from 90s, which suggested that DRob and The Dream were head&shoulder above Ewing, so I’m not surprised they both have similar numbers. What’s wowed me is DRob>Shaq. I was almost sure O’Neal’s 99-00 season was one of the greatest seasons ever. I had no idea Robinson had _three_ seasons at that level. And I thought I’m aware of perception problems. Great, eye opening analysis. Thanks.
Tommy_Grand
September 7, 2008
Cool article!
Evan
September 7, 2008
Vince,
Your raw stats do not take into account shooting efficiency. And, y’know, that’s pretty important. For example, scoring 31 points is better than scoring 22 points, but not if it took 22 more shots to do so.
Joe
September 8, 2008
Vince,
First off, wins produced and win score and the 2 metrics used here. There are links everywhere that describe the differences. Which are you referring to?
Also, at the end of your long post I don’t know what your point is. Are you saying Kobe is overrated and that TMac is almost as good? I think, for their careers in general, wins produced agrees. In fact, Mr. berri wrote an entire article on this. https://dberri.wordpress.com/2008/01/14/t-mac-and-kobe/
mafischer
September 8, 2008
While there is no doubt that free throw shooting was the greatest deficiency in O’Neal’s game, I question your assertion that he would have accumulated 32.9 additional wins if his free throw percentage was equal to Robinson’s. The problem is that O’Neal’s total of 10376 free throw attempts is inflated because teams would often intentionally foul him — this occurrence was common enough to have its own name (hack-a-Shaq). Had O’Neal been better at making his free throws, it is likely he would have been to the line fewer than 13.2 times per 48 minutes. By comparison, Robinson had 11.5 FTA per 48 minutes.
Vince Gagliano
September 8, 2008
First off, I was referring to Wins Produced. As I was saying, Berri’s system revolves around the same competition for 1,320 wins each season.
As for T-Mac and Kobe, I wasn’t referring to Win Scores, WP48s, or Wins Produced so much as illustrating that the overall dynamics on their teams changed when the supporting casts around them changed.
It doesn’t take any of these metrics to see that when Shaq left, much of LA’s scoring, rebounding, etc. went with him. You probably know what happened with the scoring.
By the way, keep in mind that Bryant is listed as 6’6″, while McGrady is 6’8″. They might have both played the same positions, but McGrady can grab rebounds easier, hence his 6.2 boards per game to Kobe’s 5.3. Same goes for blocks, McGrady holding a 1.0 to 0.6 edge in career averages.
By the way, Bryant and McGrady will likely post lower numbers than last year. T-Mac has lost some of his edge over the last couple of years, and there are rumors that the Lakers will move Bryant to small forward.
Bryant will likely be one of the shorter players to play at 3, and between Lamar Odom, Pau Gasol, and Andrew Bynum, not to mention the 6-7 Sun Yue (who can play at point guard, by the way), he’ll have a tough time duplicating his 6.3 rebounds per game from last year.
His scoring could also go down (“trusting his teammates”, I presume), but his assists could improve. Expect averages of about 25,5, and 5 this year.
Owen
September 8, 2008
Mafischer – In the big scheme of things, that is a very small consideration. The vast majority of the fouls on Shaq were unintentional. And if he had been a great foul shooter, people would have been scared to foul him, which would have opened up other offensive opportunities.
I think it’s a very fair point that he, and a lot of players, would see their productivity increase significantly if they could hit their foul shots more frequently. Dwight Howard is probably the
best example in the NBA right now. He is still phenomenally productive, but is leaving a lot of chicken on the bone nonetheless.
Joe
September 8, 2008
Vince,
I still am not sure what your point is beyond the Chris Paul being 7.5X better than the average player and not 4X. Your argument is about semantics.
You want to take average relative to number of players on active rosters. Mr. Berri goes more by production by players who are on the court.
You then seem to insinuate that Kobe “got better” when Shaq left or something like that. The problem is that when you look at WP48 this is not the case.
http://www.wagesofwins.com/Kobe9707.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/bryanko01.html
Shaq’s last season was 03-04. The first season without Shaq was Kobe’s worst since he could legally drink. So my conclusion would be that he probably didn’t become more productive when Shaq left but rather started scoring more.
As you say, you don’t care about WP48 apparently, so we aren’t even disagreeing. You think points, rebounds, and assists are seemingly all we need to evaluate a player. I disagree.
Also, the way you use the 2 inch discrepancy in player height is crazy. They are SGs. Being shorter than another player is a shortcoming. That is basketball. There is a reason basketball players are tall… it is a sport where being tall is really advantageous.
Evan
September 8, 2008
Prof Berri — Title of this post should be students’.
Sorry for the grammar nit-ing.
Tyler
September 8, 2008
This is an interesting post, but I’d be interested to see this analysis done not for the regular season but for the postseason. The reason I’d be interested in seeing this is the noticeable tail-off in Robinson’s production (and presumably his WP48) once the real season begins; Shaq, by contrast, even after a longer career (an extra 3,400 minutes or so in the regular season wearing on him), hasn’t experienced any drop. His regular season stats are almost identical to his postseason numbers, about 25/12/3, though on 56% FG instead of 58%. He even draws more FTA in the playoffs.
I think in any scenario where you’re comparing who’s more productive or who’s better overall, it’s worth it to look at the run to the title as well; Robinson, even if you account for his years with Duncan deflating his numbers, wasn’t exactly the same kind of impact player in the playoffs. If you look at the years before his injury (and hence, before Duncan), he has 3 seasons at under 47% FG and two under 45%. Some of this can be attributed to teammates, sure, but he’s still got a 4% drop in his FG% between the regular season and the postseason, twice that of Shaq and at a lower overall efficiency, superior FT shooting or not.
And it doesn’t account for anecdotal issues like the relative play of Shaq and D-Rob versus Olajuwon in the 94-95 playoffs. Shaq posted roughly 28/13/6 on 59% FG and a little over 10 FTA/g. The Rockets were leaving him in single coverage, but that’s quite a bit different than D-Rob’s. He posted a decent line (24/11/3) but shot 45% while allowing Hakeem to explode all over him (35/13/5, 3 40+ point games). It’s a single series, but if we’re comparing players, we have to account for their pressure performances, performances against key rivals and what they achieved at the peaks of their careers.
As an aside, Vince, in response to your rumblings about the Lakers shuffling Kobe over to the SF, that’s something we’ve been hearing perpetually since Phil Jackson first came to L.A. He plays some SF every game already. He’s still going to score 28-30 ppg, but you might see his assists rise a little bit because the triangle usually uses the SF as the primary playmaker, the guy throwing the entry passes once the triangle is formed, that sort of thing. I don’t think that even a full-time shift to SF would appreciably deflate his stats, especially because the Lakers still need him to score at a high volume in order to succeed, since he’s already in the business of creating shots for Odom and Gasol (and Bynum, when healthy) and all the shooters anyway. I’d figure he’ll drop from 31 to about 28 ppg, but you’ll probably see him knocking out 6 apg, so it’s a trade-off, especially if it helps reduce the wear on his body during the regular season.
dberri
September 8, 2008
Evan,
Thanks. I fixed it.
Jason
September 8, 2008
I’m still fuzzy on how we attribute stat-based credit to all members of team regardless of play style.
One might contend that playing with a dominating back to the basket center enabled Rick Fox, Derek Fisher, and Robert Horry to keep their win scores higher than they might be with an agility-based big like Robinson, who spent so much time facing up to the hoop. Just because O’Neal didn’t get the assist, doesn’t mean he didn’t create the open shot by drawing the double and then kicking the ball out.
I do think some of David’s numbers are truly eye-opening, and it does bear mentioning that without Kobe, Wade, and Penny to take the pressure shots and get him over the hump, Shaq would likely be sans a few finals appearances and NBA titles himself. On the flip side, if he had a Kobe, Wade, or Penny, David’s Wins Produced and MVP would likely be lowered by shared responsibility.
Nice article.
Court
September 8, 2008
This article is absurd, and frankly I don’t think the author knows basketball. A cursory look at his metrics shows some likely weaknesses. For example, regular season WPs being used to compare these players, when everyone knows what a loafer shaq was/is in the regular season.
Turn to simple, real life basketball for god’s sake. Shaq and Robinson are easily compared cus they played each other in their primes. Shaq dominated Robinson. It wasn’t even close. In his prime, Shaq dominated Robinson AND Tim Duncan together. Those guys were intimidated and inferior to Shaq for their entire careers. Why do you think the Lakers pulled out a 3-1 comeback in that one playoffs?
In real life, when it counted (in the playoffs), Shaq was incomparable to Robinson. And I think Olajuwon was better than Shaq. Please watch some actual basketball people.
dberri
September 8, 2008
Court,
Please learn how to both read and actually do analysis. The argument “hey I watched these guys play and I know who is best” was actually addressed in the column. And you still threw it out there.
Remember the NBA’s slogan. Reading is fundamental.
Evan
September 8, 2008
Court —
You make so many fallacious arguments I don’t know where to begin. That’s rather impressive.
Vince Gagliano
September 8, 2008
Joe,
I made the argument about Chris Paul’s being 7.5x more productive in relation to overall season productivity.
Per 48 minutes, he is indeed 4 times more productive than average. But Paul also gets more minutes. In fact, the ratio of his minutes to an average Joe’s minutes is equal to
(Paul’s Wins Produced/Average guy’s Wins Produced)/(Paul’s WP48/Average guy’s WP48)
Also, most NBA positions are not created equal. Typically, point guards are the shortest men on an NBA team, followed by shooting guards, and so on and so forth. McGrady’s height would give him an advantage in rebounding compared to most other conventionally defined 2-guards in the league. His height is more typical of a 3 than a 2.
That’s why Magic Johnson was viewed as such a unique player in the league. He possessed the height of a forward with the foot speed and court vision of a point guard. As a result, he created a lot of defensive mismatches for teams facing the Lakers in the 1980s.
If T-Mac is evaluated as a small forward, he is still more productive than Kobe as a shooting guard, but not by much.
By the way, Bryant remained the same player (WP48-wise) in 2005 that he did when Shaq left town. The Lakers’ dip in wins was due to the gaping hole that O’Neal’s productivity left on the team. For better or for worse, Bryant was not culpable for the sudden dip.
However, he also had two consecutive seasons where he scored 30+ points per game. His field goal percentage improved from ’05, but his rebounds and assists dropped.
As Dr. Berri has stated, the Lakers’ improvement in results has not been about Bryant. It never really was.
Ryan Whaley
September 8, 2008
This is clearly a biased article using stats to bend the truth. Also stats aren’t everything, remember David’s MVP year(the one he stat stuffed for the scoring title), he had the #1 team, the MVP and had his head handed to him by the Dream in the playoffs(one of the most one sided beat downs ever). David was great, no doubt, but he is not on the Dreams level. David never won a title without Duncan, Hakeem is the only player in the last what 28 years to win a title(first title before clyde) being the only allstar on the team. Also Hakeem is the only player in NBA history to be in the all time top 10 in points, rebounds, blocks(#1) and steals. The most telling story between the two in my eyes has already been pointed out but I need to say one last time, in David’s best season(his only MVP year and his team had the best record) he got rolled by the Dream in the playoffs, just completely destroyed.
robert fisher
September 8, 2008
The above post is a little off since Robinsons scoring title was the year before his MVP when the Clippers refused to let a young Shaq win the scoring title. But the point about Robinson getting destroyed by Olajuwan is valid. When asking to define “the greatest center of the 90’s” Olajuwan has to be in the forefront because he was the reason his team won championships. The Admiral was never the best player on a championship team. The Shaq argument can play out the same way although he was blessed with better teammates. And lest we forget that had Ewing not ruptured his Achilles tendon then the Robinson would likely be the owner of only 1 NBA title (The Knicks were dominant to the Spurs on the wings and slightly better at the point guard position). D-Rob’s 1 and 1/2 titles (and ’99 was the lockout year) are as a complimentary player, not the star (like Shaq’s 4th in Miamai)
Jacob
September 8, 2008
Ryan,
Robinson won the scoring title in 94, and the MVP in 95. Robinson did receive a lot of votes for the MVP in 94. So his 71 point game had nothing to do with his MVP, plus Shaq had a game after the Spurs played and he tried to beat Robinson, he just couldn’t. Also the 95 WCF was 6 games and they were all close games, not a beat down. Not to take anything away from Hakeem but people memories of 95 WCF are distorted. Robinson deserved that MVP, the Dream just outplayed him in that series and had an amazing playoffs that year.
hurm66
September 8, 2008
Court couldn’t be more wrong about who dominated who in their early career: Shaq didn’t post a win against DRob until his third season (their sixth meeting against each other), and they won that game thanks to Penny (look it up in http://www.basketball-reference.com)
DRob messed around and even dropped a triple double on Shaq in one particular game.
What is not mentioned here is the X factor – that mental edge that separates the great ones and the legends.
Robinson got started on the game late in his life and never had that all consuming passion for the game – he was grateful for his gifts and that he could make a fortune playing a kids game, but it wasn’t his end all be all.
When he was on, he dropped 52-17 on ‘Zo – a triple double on Shaq – and regardless of we might recall – he deserved that MVP over Hakeem.
That said – no player in recent memory except LeBron perhaps, has done as much with so little. Those infamous ’95 playoffs were as good an indication that this sport is five on five and although Hakeem was conscious and played out of his mind, the truth is that the Spurs lost Game 1 because Elliot missed two big free throws at the end and the lost by one point.
The Spurs went on to win two road games in that series, and Robinson played better than some may remember, but was no match for Hakeem who played like never before and Horry dropped five 3’s in one game and 6 3’s in another because Rodman wouldn’t leave the paint area to cover him.
Robinson was humilated but the truth is that his teammates let him down in that series.
My point is that if the Spurs win Game 1, they probably win the series (they swept the season series against the Rockets that year). A recent example might be how well Shaq played and had huge numbers against the Pistons in the Finals, but the Lakers lost so no one cares or remembers. History is written by the winners.
Duncan has pretty much always outplayed Shaq – the numbers are in his favor – although there are peaks and valleys in their stats – but one is a PF and the other a center. Both have conference finals sweeps against each other and four rings. Duncan is the better player and will end up having a better career though. Shaq owes a lot to Kobe and Wade while Duncan has built his legacy as a selfless member of a great TEAM with Parker and Ginobili.
In the end Robinson had fitting finish to a career – winning a second championship at home with a big 13 point 17 rebound effort. It couldn’t have happened to a better guy. Hakeem ended up as a Toronto Raptor (and he had a somewhat up and down and bitter relationship with the Rockets and almost traded to the Heat back in the early 90’s). Shaq got traded mid-season and then thew former teammates under the bus.
Robinson was a pioneer of the hybrind face the basket center – lean but simply not mean enough. He and Hakeem were a cut above the rest – Shaq and Ewing, numbers be damned, were distant notch below.
Adam
September 8, 2008
Evan and Professor Berri, if we’re being REAL nitpicky about the grammar in the title, it should be:
The Best NBA Center in my Students’ Lives
(Multiple students, multiple lives.)
That said, great post. While watching Shaq and the Suns wither against the Spurs this past postseason under the harsh light of hack-a-Shaq, I remember thinking to myself (without any actual data to back up this line of thought), “Shaq is killing his team with his free-throw shooting.” This is obviously not the only time this thought has crossed millions of fans’ minds simultaneously, but I think this post gives some meat to that assertion.
Rob
September 8, 2008
By my metrics you qualify as an unqualified idiot. DROB over Dream or Shaq is laughable at best. Dream never played with anybody close to Duncan, one a title with Otis Thorpe, Robert Horry, Vernon Maxwell, and Kenny Smith as starters. Had he played with a Kobe, a Parker, a Duncan, and not an aging Clyde this would be moot. You can manipulate numbers, nudge them, and mold them, but if you had simply watched the two play side by side and considering the talent with whom they were playing you could have save your overtly and sadly jaded numerical arse the time of spouting out such utter stupidity. Maybe I am being harsh, but it doesn’t take statistical analysis to know basketball and to understand that DROB couldn’t hold Dream’s jock. Apparently, someone forget that all logic doesn’t lie in numbers. Professor, a bit of advice from an admittedly ignorant man; don’t complicate the obvious or you might believe the crap you just wrote above.
Rob
September 8, 2008
By my metrics you qualify as an unqualified idiot. DROB over Dream or Shaq is laughable at best. Dream never played with anybody close to Duncan, won a title with Otis Thorpe, Robert Horry, Vernon Maxwell, and Kenny Smith as starters. Had he played with a Kobe, a Parker, a Duncan, and not an aging Clyde this would be moot. You can manipulate numbers, nudge them, and mold them, but if you had simply watched the two play side by side and considering the talent with whom they were playing you could have save your overtly and sadly jaded numerical arse the time of spouting out such utter stupidity. Maybe I am being harsh, but it doesn’t take statistical analysis to know basketball and to understand that DROB couldn’t hold Dream’s jock. Apparently, someone forget that all logic doesn’t lie in numbers. Professor, a bit of advice from an admittedly ignorant man; don’t complicate the obvious or you might believe the crap you just wrote above.
Angel
September 8, 2008
Wow, Robinson over Hakeem and Shaq. I will say it is an interesting argument going by just numbers. When Drob abused Shaq, it was early in his career and Robinson was in his prime. Like you said head/head matchups don’t tell the whole story. Shaq had better teammates but you cannot tell me that is the reason he was not as better than Drob. Shaq took 3 different teams to the finals a total of six times in the first 13 seasons of his career, which means if you had Shaq on your team, you had almost a 50% cance of getting to the finals. Jordan had Pippen and is still considered the best of all time. He had Bryant and Penny, but he made them better not the other way around. He was the star, he carried the load. Robinson did not. So you can keep your numbers, I’ll take Shaq and the opportunity to win championships.
hurm66
September 8, 2008
Rob,
Thorpe was an All-Star, and aging Clyde was better than anyone on the Spurs except DRob (better than Elliot for certain) – and you underestimate how pivotal the young Rockets with Horry and Cassell were. Add Elie’s cold-blooded touch and that Rockets team was better than you remember.
(Elie went on to win another title with the Spurs in ’99 by the way.)
Also – there is no chance the ’99 Knicks would have beaten the Spurs that year – even with a healthy Ewing. Duncan was just too unstoppable that postseason.
Lastly – and I’m certain that this will stir some controversy, but I think one of those two Rockets teams would have beated the Bulls in the Finals, and I also believe the ’99 Spurs would have too. The Bulls never faced a true Western Conference super-center in their six titles – I really believe Hakeem and or Duncan/Robinson would have been too much for the Bulls to stop for a whole series.
One series can shape a memory, and there is no arguing that Hakeem got the better of everyone that year in the playoffs (Spurs in six, but swept Shaq in the Finals). However go back and look at their match-ups prior to that and before injuries took their toll on both – you’ll find that Robinson not only held his own, but often bettered Hakeem.
But for one magical series – they were as close to even as can be imagined.
T95
September 8, 2008
I am a big fan of david robinson, but he really didnt have Hakeems all around game. Hakeem could play inside and outside on offense and was the best defensive center of his generation. And no the admiral did not generally get the better of hakeem, no center did. Hakeems productivity was best when he had some complementary outside shooters to give him the space. David was a PF offensively, but I must admit only hakeem was better on D, and not buy all that much.
MQ
September 8, 2008
The problem is that the entire statistical method used here is screwy. It appears to assume that the offensive contributions of each player on the team are *independent of each other*. In other words, you get no credit for making your teammates better, and if you lose production because you have good teammates then you can lose out from that too (or gain, potentially, if your missed shots goes down sufficiently to outweigh your lost opportunities to make shots).
Basketball is a completely interdependent game, which makes it very difficult to model. Baseball, by contrast, is easy to model because players contributions do not depend so much on their teammates.
MQ
September 8, 2008
In other words: a lot of the time watching the game is still going to be more revealing than running aggregate regressions and then slapping the coefficients on players raw stats. Which is all that’s happening here.
dberri
September 8, 2008
Okay, we went from Student’s Life, to Students’ Life, to Students’ Lifetime. My wife agrees that it should be Students’ Lives. But that just sound weird to me. Then again, grammar ain’t my thing.
Vince Gagliano
September 8, 2008
Or, you could just go with “The Best NBA center of the Clinton years”
Robinson’s and O’Neal’s careers intersect from 1992 to 2003. Bill served from 1992 to 2000. The title provides the perfect bridge between Robinson’s years in San Antonio and the beginning of the Shaq and Kobe era.
Added bonus, you can use the Obama/McCain campaign as a segue into discussing the best young centers in the league. Dwight Howard, anyone?
Farris D
September 8, 2008
Hakeem is the best ever. He did everything and he did everything well. There is no doubt he is better than David Robinson.
grover
September 8, 2008
Wonder what we’d be saying about Robinson if he had started his career not at 24, but at 20(Shaq) or 21(Hakeem) like so many of his contemporaries.
Hakeem fan
September 8, 2008
The other thing to consider about Hakeem is the two things that the stats don’t pick up: (1) how many shots he changed that resulted in a miss and (2) how many times he kicked it back out and the ball was swung to a second shooter who scored. Neither would show up in a stat sheet, but he would do each a handful of times each night. I can’t say he did either one of those two things a lot more than Shaq or Robinson, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he did. Given stuff like this, it’s always hard to simply line up basketball stats (no matter how sophisticated the analysis) and determine who is better in their career.
Farnharth
September 8, 2008
Hakeem is not the best center ever. Hakeem is a power forward that played center. Hakeem is 6’10 and the other centers were 7 feet. Hakeem also relied on his athleticism which at the end of his career was declining. Hakeem’s game was based on his legs and quickness and was more athletic skill than strength or brute power. Hakeem couldn’t do the Dream fake without his lift from his legs. Kareem had his skyhook which he could use to offset his age. Kareem was able to play into his 40s while Hakeem bombed in Toronto.
Robinson was taller than Hakeem and much better all around and his teams aside from Duncan were inferior to Hakeem’s team in 1995. Robinson had to carry some really poor teams.
In 1995 in the NBA Western Conference finals David Robinson played with Vinny Del Negro and Avery Johnson at point and a bunch of non all star players or Hall of Fame players. Rodman is a rebounder and not a scorer. The result was the rockets could double team Robinson. If Duncan had been on that San Antonio team Hakeem would only have one title.
In 1995 Hakeem had Sam Cassell and Clyde Drexler and Robert Horry and Kenny Smith who came from North Carolina and Mario Elie. David Robinson had almost no supporting cast and San Antonio still won two games. Hakeem had a deeper team so saying he outplayed Robinson is ridiculous. Hakeem had a better veteran team than Robinson so Hakeem won a team game since basketball is not a solo game. Basketball is definitely not tennis. If the teams had been reversed Robinson would have outplayed Hakeem in San Antonio in Houston.
David Robinson was also the first player in the NBA to rank among the top five in rebounding, blocks and steals (per game) in a single season.
In some seasons Robinson was rated in the top in many different categories despite playing with Del Negro or Avery Johnson.
Moses Malone was able to dominate the Lakers and the Celtics in 1983. It was Fo Fo Fo baby. Moses Malone swept the Lakers in four games. Hakeem lost to Larry Bird and couldn’t beat the Celtics. Houston only beat the Lakers courtesy of Ralph Sampsons miracle shot. Moses Malone is better at his prime than Hakeem since he outplayed Kareem and was able to ware him down. Minus Moses Malone the 83 Philadelphia team would have lost. Moses Malone helped sweep a very good Hall of Fame filled Laker team with Magic Johnson. People might rate Hakeem really high but at Yao Ming might be better for his size. You can’t teach 7’6 height. Hakeem isn’t the prototypical power center he’s more of a finesse athletic center while Moses Malone was a power center and a fearless rebounder. The true definition of a center is power strength and height and the only reason why Shaq doesn’t walk away with the award to say nothing about Wilt or Bill Russell is that Shaq might not have been as motivated to reach his potential. Shaq is much more powerful than Hakeem and probably more talented but lacked the discipline to develop a strong finesse game. All around I’d take Shaq over Hakeem any day.
Trufant
September 8, 2008
Did you see Olajuwon wreck Robinson in the 95′ Western Conference Finals after David copped the MVP award and then go on to OUTPLAY Shaq and lead the Rockets to a 4-0 sweep against the Magic in the same season.
Hakeem Olajuwon is the best out of the 4 (Ewing, Robinson, and Olajuwon). Not only was he a magician on the offensive end of the floor, he was truly dominant on the defensive side as evidenced by his Defensive Player of the Year Awards and also the title of the NBA’s leader in blocked shots All-Time.
Fact: Hakeem “The Dream” Olajuwon is the ONLY player in NBA HISTORY to win an NBA Title, NBA Regular Season MVP, Defensive Player of the Year, and NBA Finals MVP in the same season. This is something not even the great Jordan can touch.
bigmac
September 8, 2008
to whoever said the MJ bulls never beat a western conference super-center, his teams ran through HOF all time top 10 centres Patrick Ewing AND Shaq in his 3rd season, don’t forget Ewing’s Knicks took Dream’s Rockets to the last minute of game 7 in the finals, and MJ beat Shaq the year after Shaq’s first finals, he was the dominant Shaq by that point, likely HOF’er Zo Mourning the year after…Dream is the best of all of them but Shaq/Ewing/DRob are interchangeable with Zo barely a step down, MJ proved himself against the very best centres the world has ever offered.
Owen
September 8, 2008
Got to love a good True Hoop crossover thread….
mor(m)on
September 8, 2008
These basketball discussions are held by people that never played ball outside of their driveway. The last picks during the gym class. Don’t you know the best center that ever lived was a man named Greg Ostertag? A close second is Cherokee Parks. GO in his prime would eat Shaq, Patrick, The Dream, and the Admiral all in one big bite.
discussion over fools.
hurm66
September 8, 2008
DRobs career PER is third best in history behind MJ and Shaq. Hakeem is 15th.
DRob won Rookie of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year, MVP and led the league in scoring, rebounds, blocked shots. He won three Olympic medals and two Gold and two NBA titles.
He even led the Spurs in assists one season – the same year he won the scoring title! Who was dishing dimes to this guy? That same season, 93-94, he had four triple doubles and even a quadruple double (to be fair, Hakeem also had one of those in his career – very rare) – BUT DRob came two blocked shots from having a second QD that same season!
The guy had nothing else on those teams – no other go to guy – just a bunch of role players and way past their prime types (Dale Ellis, Terry Cummings etc. – dinosaurs by that time)
Those ’95 Rockets had a great mix of veteran leaders, specialist shooters and young gazelles – two of which have been proven winners in this league in Horry and Cassell.
Yes Hakeem got the best of him that series, but it’s a team game and those two were a lot more even than most care to admit. In the end Robinson got his rings to go along with all the hardware and had the best possible ending to his career.
I would have loved to have seen an “in their prime” match up between Hakeem and Duncan. All that footwork and skill – my money would be on Duncan though.
As to the whole Bulls vs. Rockets theory – no one was going to deny Hakeem and the Rockets in ’95 – no one.
Unbiased
September 8, 2008
David Robinson was no doubt a great center and maybe in the top ten but he was in no way better than Hakeem or Shaq. People often forget that Hakeem sat out every season due to Ramadan so he could fast and when i mean fast I mean no food or water from sunrise to sunset. I am a Hakeem Olajuwon fan and would always pick him on my team over Shaq, Robinson, and Ewing. If I were not a Hakeem fan and simply wanted to win or have the best chances of winning I would pick Shaq over all the centers I just mentioned. To conclude I will add that all four of these centers were great.
jerad
September 9, 2008
all i know is olajuwon ate up robinson when they played one another
Ryan Whaley
September 9, 2008
“Not to take anything away from Hakeem but people memories of 95 WCF are distorted. Robinson deserved that MVP, the Dream just outplayed him in that series and had an amazing playoffs that year.”
My bad putting that 71 point game in the wrong year. But the series wasn’t a run away, the personal match up between Dream and David was, and that was his MVP year. You also missed or forgot to respond to the fact that David didn’t win Jack without Duncan, and Dream WON a title with no all star help(the only player to do so in like the last 28 years). How about Dream being the only player ever in the top ten in points, rebounds, steals and of course blocks where he is king. Dream was better hands down, it is just fact. David is a top ten center ever, Dream is a top ten player ever. Look at it like this Kobe is great, Jordan is better. Stockton was great, Magic was better. Dream just had more game.
Jonachris
September 9, 2008
The Spurs dont care abour Statistic. The only thing in their minds are winning championship
Ryan Whaley
September 9, 2008
“If Duncan had been on that San Antonio team Hakeem would only have one title.”
Ya that is a great argument. If one of the greatest players of all time was on that team they would have won the title wow! Well if Ralph Sampsons knees could have held the history of the NBA would be different. Dream and Ralph knock off showtime in 86 and played competitive against the celtics who in 86 had one of the greatest teams ever. Shoulda, woulda, couldas don’t count and what really happened does, so when Jordan stepped out and the title was up for grabs and the spurs where the #1 seed and David was MVP, Dream smashed david and the Rockets beat the Spurs in 6 on the way to the title. Hakeem averaged 35.3 points 12.5 rebounds, 3.3 assists 1.3 steals 4.16 assists and 4.16 turnovers that series, David averaged 23.8, 11.3, 2.6, 1.5, 2.6 and 4.5 turnovers. Dream smashed David head to head in their primes with a title on the line.
Ryan Whaley
September 9, 2008
“Yes Hakeem got the best of him that series, but it’s a team game and”….
The rockets won the series. Dream crushed david and his team won. What more can you say?
Ryan Whaley
September 9, 2008
“In 1995 Hakeem had Sam Cassell and Clyde Drexler and Robert Horry and Kenny Smith who came from North Carolina and Mario Elie. David Robinson had almost no supporting cast and San Antonio still won two games.”
The Spurs where insane that year, what are you talking about? Elliot was nice, Ellis and Cummings where cold blooded vets, Avery was a great leader(like having a coach on the court, Vinnie D was a killer, they where the #1 seed in the league and had the current MVP, as well as home court and still only won 2 games.
TRad
September 9, 2008
Amazing :)
Dave, you’ve written a lot of posts but to really stir in the pot you needed good ol’ DRob vs The Dream theme. Even Kobe vs James discussion wasn’t this heated.
What does it tell us about todays’ NBA?
anonymous
September 9, 2008
Hakeem Olajuwon won both of his NBA titles while David Robinson was in his prime. David Robinson won both of his championships while Hakeem Olajuwon was either on his way out or when he was out of the league. Also, David Robinson had significantly better teams during his championship years than Olajuwon did. Since we are talking about greatness (inherent in best ever), we have to look at both regular season and postseason success. Both of Olajuwon’s championships were during his prime, while only one of Robinson’s championships can even remotely be considered during his prime. Also, both have one MVP, so their regular season value was relatively similar. Olajuwon has two Defensive Player of the Year trophies while Robinson has one scoring title and one Defensive Player of the Year Award, so even if we acknowledge that Robinson was better offensively and Olajuwon was better defensively, we’re still at an impass. This is why I think that looking to their postseason success is what can distinguish one from the other. Olajuwon has two Finals MVP’s, while Robinson has none. Statistics can validate someone’s career but winning, and winning in the right places and with the right distinctions makes a player great. Looking at Olympic gold medals is unfair because Olajuwon was ineligible to play for the US the first two times because he was not a citizen, otherwise he would have surely been on those teams. Also, Robinson’s Rookie of the Year Award can’t be used to judge him against Olajuwon because Olajuwon lost that race to Michael Jordan who went on to be the greatest player of all time. Robinson wasn’t being considered against someone of that caliber. Also, the way in which the Rockets won those two championships was incredible. The first year they had no other all-stars and they beat excellent Phoenix and Utah teams, not to mention an excellent Knicks team. The next year, they came back and beat the Suns again, Utah again, the Spurs, and swept a fearsome Orlando Magic team. The unquestionable best player on those Rocket teams was Hakeem. The same can’t be said about David Robinson. This is why in the 50 Greatest Players of All Time list, Hakeem is the highest ranked center, and a top ten ranked player overall. No statistics can outweigh the general sentiment amongst media, current and former players and coaches, GM’s and team execs.
Tyler
September 9, 2008
In response to Farnharth:
You talked about Hakeem declining at the end of his career and how Kareem had the skyhook that let him play into his 40s. You neglected to mention that Kareem was pretty much garbage in his last year and noticeably declined throughout the 80s. You neglected to mention that even with his quickness fading, he had a power-post game and a mid-range jumper. You neglected to mention that Kareem played only 2 more years than did Olajuwon and that in several of his final years, he was playing with the same kind of talent-stacked squads that advanced Kareem’s statistical degeneration. It’s pretty foolish to make that kind of comparison. Kareem had Magic Johnson creating shots and Byron Scott and James Worthy helping Magic to draw the defense, so of course it was easy for him to continue to put up shots. You act like the Dream Shake stopped working while he was in Toronto and that it wasn’t injury that eventually shelved Olajuwon during his season in Toronto.
Then you claimed that Robinson was better all-around than Hakeem, without any significant body of evidence to prove that statement. It ignores the fact that Hakeem had a longer career but a comparable average in APG and a both a higher rebounding average and higher BPG average as well.
Then you talked about Hakeem’s ’95 team as superior to Robinson’s, conveniently ignoring the ’94 squad, which was maybe the most undertalented team to win a title in NBA history.
David Robinson was a great center; he’s a top-25 player at worst and arguably better than that. His ’95 MVP was a somewhat debatable victory, not a tragedy; statistically speaking, Olajuwon produced a better all-around game but Robinson was staggeringly efficient that year and his Spurs won 15 more games than did Dream’s Rockets, though Dream had to contend with injuries to key contributors and the mid-season trade coming late (they were 17-18 with Drexler, which was an awkward end to the season). Robinson had a spectacular regular season and his team benefited from it as it had during the course of his career. Before Duncan (and not including his injury season), Robinson’s Spurs averaged about 55 wins per season).
But was he really better than Shaq or Olajuwon? It’s debatable. For the bulk of Hakeem’s career, he played with similar talent problems as did Robinson but he managed to win a title with his team in ’94 and Robinson managed to go down in 4 games to the Utah Jazz, whom Dream’s Rockets beat in 5 games.
Then you have to consider something more qualitative than quantitative, the style of the player. Robinson, moreso than Hakeem, was reliant on his face-up abilities. He didn’t have the same back-to-the-basket post skills that Dream displayed when he wasn’t facing up, neither the variety of moves nor the same level of prowess in their execution. Like Shaq, Hakeem was capable of playing a conventional power post game that was more effective in a playoff situation than was Robinson’s game. This is a big part of why Hakeem’s playoff FG% is actually 1.6% HIGHER than his regular season average… and actually 1% better than David Robinson’s career regular season FG%.
This is why I said it would behoove any analysis of these players to include an analysis of the postseason. Olajuwon’s a career 26/11/3, 3.3 bpg, 52.8% FG guy.
Pre-Duncan (because his stats obviously went down then), Robinson’s playoff stats are 24/12/3, 3.1 bpg and 48.8% FG (over 53 games). A little bit better on the glass, noticeably less prolific and less efficient as a scorer (Dream’s about 4% better in FG% at +2 ppg).
If you look at Dream before Drexler and before Barkley and such, then Dream’s playoff stats look like this (from 84-85 through 93-94):
27 ppg, 12 rpg, 3 apg, 4 bpg, 53% FG.
So when you compare the two of them without significant aid in the playoffs, Dream comes out as a more effective scorer, bother in terms of volume and efficiency, as well as a comparable rebounder and passer, and a superior shot-blocker… and that’s over 32 extra games played, so it wasn’t any single series or season skewing the stats that badly. He was consistently better in the playoffs, overall.
As for meeting in the playoffs… The Rockets and Spurs met in the playoffs pre-Duncan just once… and Olajuwon smoked Admiral so badly he was embarrassed about it. They didn’t meet in the playoffs during the rest of Hakeem’s time in Houston.
They met in the regular season 42 times, with Robinson winning 30 of them. This, of course, includes 97-98 through 2000-2001, four years of Tim Duncan at his side. Dream outperformed him as a scorer, even as the pair declined and played alongside other players of high scoring talent, 21.9 ppg and 11.3 rpg to Robinson’s 19.6/11.2. They were pretty much even in assists and blocks, though Robinson held a small edge in steals and a significant edge in FG% (though his FG% took a huge hit over the latter portions of his career). D-Rob won the last 11 matchups of their respective careers, but that still leaves him 29-12 pre-Duncan, which is definitely in his favor, except that even Robinson had superior teammates to what Hakeem generally had. Of course, that wasn’t true in ’95.
Still, there’s a massive gap in playoff production, which is why I still think that any analysis of these two players must include a comparable analysis of their playoff performances.
Dream was 72/140 in the playoffs (0.514), 42/85 (.494) before Drexler and everyone else came along. Before Duncan, Robinson was 27/53 (.509).
So maybe there’s something to the D-Rob argument after all.
And, as someone else rightly pointed out, maybe we’d be looking at his career differently if he’d begun his NBA career at 21 or 22 instead of 24. He’d have probably had another 2 years at his peak level production, could’ve maybe won another DPOY or MVP, might’ve changed the NBA’s landscape. He was drafted in ’87, so he’d have had the 87-88 and 88-89 seasons to learn the NBA ropes. The ’88 Spurs made the playoffs and even with D-Rob probably wouldn’t have beaten the Lakers, but they had 4 guys averaging 15+ ppg and would’ve been a lot better than 22nd in defensive efficiency with a rookie D-Rob (they leapt from 13th to 3rd in defensive efficiency when he finally did start playing). And his first couple of postseason performances were pretty stellar in all aspects, none of the stuff that would later haunt him, ITO scoring efficiency.
It’s a tough call, really. The original article is interesting and a neat way to look at things, but Robinson’s career WP48, the foundation by which the claim that D-Rob > Shaq is made, remains high even in the years where he played with Duncan and much is made of the average WP of their respective teammates. Of course, as someone else has noted, they are surely at least connected in part, though obviously in Shaq’s case the averages are skewed because of Penny, Kobe and Wade, all of whom represent players considerably better than anyone with whom D-Rob played before Duncan took the center stage in San Antonio and if we’re penalizing Shaq for that, then Robinson certainly needs to account for having played on 4 or 5 teams comparable or superior to the highest single-season Teammate WP48 that Shaq’s ever enjoyed.
And again, the comparison seems to be regular season-only, which is really only half the story at best, perhaps more like a third.
Joe
September 9, 2008
To those saying that Hakeem ate up Robinson. That doesn’t seem to be the case looking at this…
http://www.basketball-reference.com/fc/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=robinda01&p2=olajuha01
Joe
September 9, 2008
Other match ups…
Shaq v. Dream
http://www.basketball-reference.com/fc/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=onealsh01&p2=olajuha01
Shaq v. Robinson
http://www.basketball-reference.com/fc/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=robinda01&p2=onealsh01
JIMBO
September 9, 2008
comment EXPLOSION!
mrparker
September 9, 2008
I found this info at bball reference.
head to head they each played 37.7 mpg
Olajowon fg% 44.1 rpg 11.2 fta5.4 t.o 2.9
Robinson fg% 48.8 rpg 11.2 fta 7.7 t.o 3
According to the four factors (dean oliver) and wp48 D Robinson had a significan advantage head to head.
A number of others posted the links I wanted to make it easier for the true hoopers to see.
Rob
September 9, 2008
Hakeem-number 1 all time in blocks, number 7 all time in steals.
As for the Robinson started at 24 comments, imagine if Dream had played basketball before he was 16.
For the fool saying Dream was a PF, have you ever watch a basketball game.? Size is not a prerequisite for playing a position. By your logic, Tim Duncan should be credited with being a 5 instead of a 4. Penny Hardaway would be a 3, Barkley would have been a SG, and now maybe you get the point that your logic is absolutely ridiculous.
One must also remember that Dream’s stats are somewhat diluted considering he played past his prime, unlike Robinson. The ’95 team was a 6th seed and beat four 60 win teams to claim the title.
As for eating up Robinson, he did when it counted most. And to me that in itself defines the difference in their greatness. DROB was a wonderful player, just not on the level with Dream.
John W. Davis
September 9, 2008
Professor D. When I look at the tables although David Robinson does have a higher wins produced. I seem to remember David Robinson being one of the only good players on his team. The Spurs offense seemed to be David Robinson against the world. Could that have made his Wins Produced higher than Shaq’s.
David’s 1st four seasons his teammates wins produced is simply atrocious. He also started in the NBA as a much older than average rookie.
Just a bit of food for thought!
-John W. Davis
http://www.pistonscast.com
Ryan Whaley
September 9, 2008
“To those saying that Hakeem ate up Robinson. That doesn’t seem to be the case looking at this…”
Dream smashed david and the Rockets beat the Spurs in 6 on the way to the title. Hakeem averaged 35.3 points 12.5 rebounds, 3.3 assists 1.3 steals 4.16 assists and 4.16 turnovers that series, David averaged 23.8, 11.3, 2.6, 1.5, 2.6 and 4.5 turnovers. Dream smashed David head to head in their primes with a title on the line.
Court
September 9, 2008
Wow, is this site populated by Spurs fans or something?
Just a few comments:
-dberri, you’re quite snide and condescending. I guess since personal experience is “addressed” in the article it is therefore irrefutably discredited?
-Why don’t all you geniuses who have obviously played less basketball than NBA players explain why any NBA player you meet will tell you Shaq and Hakeem are the best centers or their generation(s)? I guess you mathematicians know more though, right? Just like mathematicians conquered volatility with hedge funds formulas and securitized debt right? Math doesn’t work when being applied to society guys, your formulas can’t adequately model the intricacies of human behavior.
-For the guys who said DRob dominated Shaq and cited this or that game, I think the Lakers 3-peat says a little something about who dominated who. Watch the games.
Court
September 9, 2008
Sorry, last thought here is this:
Numbers don’t tell everything, and if misinterpreted, they tell exactly the wrong thing. Because impossible-to-quantify social dynamics are important in winning/losing. I read a long post where the guy took the Robinson side, but made one single small comment about the mental edge. But that’s the only thing that counts! Who’s better, the guy with the stats, or the guy who always beat the guy with the stats (in their primes, please)?
dberri
September 9, 2008
Court,
I have explained my methodology and I how I arrived at my answer. What is your methodology? How would it be tested? If you don’t rely on the numbers, what do your rely upon and how would we test the accuracy of your approach?
There is evidence that the NBA experts — the people who are paid to know — make systematic errors in the evaluation of talent. So their approach has been tested and found to be problematic.
Ultimately here is the problem you face. You claim the numbers don’t give the answer. But, yet, somehow you came up with an answer. So we need to know, how you came up with that answer and whether your approach stands up to scrutiny.
Ryan Whaley
September 9, 2008
dberri what about this stat they both went to the finals twice but only one came away series MVP(and Dream did it both times). Also answer how David can be better, when the team he lead, as MVP of the league, to the #1 record of the league lost in 6 games to the sixth seeded rockets and David was crushed, not even close, by dream in the head to head match up.
Ryan Whaley
September 9, 2008
bottom line these two players meet head to head in their primes, with a title in the balance and David got punked like a little school girl. Dream lead his team to back to back titles in his prime and the best David could do was be Pippen to Duncan’s Jordan for his two rings. David was great, an all time great, but Dream was just flat out better.
Tim Weaver
September 9, 2008
Gotta be Hakeem. Shaq and the Admiral had more raw power, but Hakeem was just as strong if not better on defense, was an excellent rebounder, could pass out of the post, and score in the clutch.
Sean
September 9, 2008
Prof. Berri,
As another commenter pointed out, without a distinction between a player’s win production in, say, playoff elimination games, versus win production in random December regular season contests, the usefulness of comparing two players’ respective “greatness” (already a subjective notion), doesn’t hold much water.
Of course, the problem is, how much more weight do you give wins produced in the playoffs? Is there even an objective way at arriving there?
While I can’t get on board with Court’s almost completely subjective take, it does get to the heart of the problem with your analysis. There is at least one pretty obvious factor that bears on the comparison between Robinson and Shaq, (or Robinson and Olajuwon), that you may not have properly accounted for.
Christopher
September 9, 2008
Just have to correct this odd thought posted above:
“D-Rob’s 1 and 1/2 titles (and ‘99 was the lockout year) are as a complimentary player, not the star (like Shaq’s 4th in Miami)”
Shaq _was_ a complimentary player when the Heat won the title. Ever hear of Dwayne Wade?
Court
September 10, 2008
dberri – i’ve got no methodology, other than personal observation. I can’t claim to call it a science. But in my opinion, neither yours nor any other method I’ve seen is going to provide a better answer than what I subjectively saw with my own eyes.
I play plenty of fantasy basketball, I watch the A’s a lot, and so on… So I know the value of using hard numbers to value players. I also know the limitations. The problem I have with almost everything Hollinger does, this article, and all other numbers-oriented approaches, is that the practitioners seem to always take the methodology out of its comfort zone and apply it cavalierly to questions where it doesn’t work.
The numbers give you an APPROXIMATE gauge of value. But when you get to the finals and the best face the best, numbers start to lose their significance. You know what I’d do to determine the best center ever? I’d take Sean Elliot, Mario Elie, Kenny Smith, Clyde Drexler, Kobe Bryant, Derrick Fisher, Ron Harper, and all those other high-basketball-IQ guys who were directly involved, and ask them who they’d choose first for a pickup game. The answer’s going to be Hakeem or Shaq, cus they dictate the outcome more powerfully than Duncan (let alone Robinson). My opinion – the numeric results, in this case, are a little less-than-average as far as a compelling argument, in a particularly slippery category of inquiry.
TRad
September 10, 2008
Court
I think you overestimate the knowledge of NBA players. Remember, Kobe was more than enthusiastic to the trade Bynum for Kidd.
What’s more: the numbers guys have several successes, f.e. take a look at last year draft analysis. It seems Holinger, using only numbers and models, was better talent evaluator than the average NBA GM.
Basketball is much harder to quantitative analyse than baseball, but it isn’t impossible. After all your estimation that in the 90s O’Neal and Olajuwon were the best NBA centers is numbers based too, you’re using ppg, rpg, bpg etc.
(the) Jason (who regularly posts here)
September 10, 2008
“Shaq _was_ a complimentary player”.
Actually, I think he was a complementary player at that point, but he still wasn’t free.
Evan
September 10, 2008
Dear Court,
Sample size problems much?
Love,
Evan
T2150
September 19, 2008
If you look at the stats and Ws I always felt that the 1994 MVP should have gone to The Admiral… even SI put him on the cover hailing him “Mr. MVP” that year, but Dream got the sentimental vote and stole it… I always believe David did more with less and his main downfall was the playoffs- which he openly admitted… Dream was great, but did he not get away with a traveling violation every time he did his “Dream Shake”?? and who else got away with more goal tends counted as blocks than Dream???? Any-who, I’m glad we had David on our team- he pretty much by himself saved the franchise from leaving town, was a top 20 player ALL-Time and and a top citizen… Didn’t Dream fake an injury???? just sayin’… Rockets fans will always talk about ’95 and nothing we can say will change that- but numbers don’t lie and the Spurs have 4 ‘ships…
Tyler
September 20, 2008
I’m pretty sure that the playoffs in ’94 bore out who “did more with less.” Dream’s roster was generally below the caliber of what Robinson enjoyed in his pre-Duncan years and, rather than underperforming and failing to even make the Finals, Dream won a title with his Rockets.
And no, the Dream Shake wasn’t a travel, he’s just taking good advantage of pivots and spins… and he’s freaking quick.
As to numbers not lying… look at D-Rob’s regular season and postseason numbers; what’s not being lied about there? And as to championships, when was the last time Dream played with someone like Duncan, eh? That’s not an especially relevant comment, since two of the titles were won without Robinson even present on the roster.
tpain
December 9, 2008
the rockets double teamed robinson. robinson guarded olajuwon straight up. idiots.
l r nights
January 17, 2009
someone said earlier that the rockets in 86 beat the showtime lakers with a miracle shot in the WCF you failed to mention that was game five and hakeem was dominant in that series. they embarrased magic kareem and the showtime lakers they only won one game in that series. someone else said that hakeem and robinson both reached the finals twice, well he also forgot about 86 when hakeem performed quite well against the greastest frontcourt of all time.
Jason
January 22, 2009
The Dream did have a guy like Duncan, his name was Clyde “The Glide” Drexler
R
April 7, 2009
You’re not taking the post-season into account when comparing Hakeem and Shaq to Robinson. Why even bother with the playoffs at all? Let’s just go ahead and give the championship trophy to the team with the best record at the end of the season.