The Cleveland Cavaliers finished the 2008-09 regular season on top of the NBA, leading the Association in both win and efficiency differential (offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency). The playoffs, though, didn’t quite work out as they hoped. Consequently, Cleveland decided to make changes.
Given Cleveland’s record in 2008-09, it seemed unlikely that much could be done to improve the team. After all, this team won 66 games and posted the 5th highest efficiency differential (9.74) since 1973-74. The four teams ranked ahead of Cleveland in the efficiency differential rankings (Chicago 95-96, Chicago 96-97, Boston 07-08, Chicago 91-92) all declined the next season. That suggests that Cleveland might have a hard time getting better.
Table One: Cleveland Cavaliers in 2008-09
And given the roster employed, one could argue that improvement wasn’t necessary. As Table One indicates, the Cavaliers were led – not surprisingly – by LeBron James. But this team had more than King James. Cleveland employed five other players who both played more than 1,000 minutes and posted a WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes] that was above average (average is 0.100). If Cleveland simply returned this roster it would still contend for a title.
Improving on Greatness
Although standing pat would have been the easy choice, Cleveland opted to find a way to improve the roster. And it appears they were successful.
Last season the following four players were among the top ten players on the Cavaliers roster in minutes played (numbers from 2008-09):
SG: Sasha Pavlovic [0.7 Wins Produced, 0.034 WP48]
SF: Wally Szczerbiak [3.8 Wins Produced, 0.120 WP48]
PF: J.J. Hickson [1.0 Wins Produced, 0.070 WP48]
C: Ben Wallace [4.3 Wins Produced, 0.159 WP48]
Average WP48: 0.096
Although this quartet isn’t bad (on average), Cleveland managed to find – via trades and signings – an even better quartet.
SG: Anthony Parker [6.3 Wins Produced, 0.114 WP48]
SF: Jamario Moon [8.4 Wins Produced, 0.194 WP48]
PF: Leon Powe [4.8 Wins Produced, 0.187 WP48]
C: Shaquille O’Neal [7.9 Wins Produced, 0.167 WP48]
Average WP48: 0.166
When we compare these two groups of players we see, in each instance, the player lost at the position was replaced by a better player [at least in terms of WP48]. And yes, I know; Leon Powe is hurt and he may not play much. But let’s say he does manage to return to the court before the playoffs. This would mean the Cavs could enter the post-season with the following ten players leading the way:
Potential First String
PG: Maurice Williams [7.1Wins Produced, 0.119 WP48]
SG: Delonte West [7.3 Wins Produced, 0.163 WP48]
SF: LeBron James [27.8 Wins Produced, 0.436 WP48]
PF: Anderson Varejao [8.1 Wins Produced, 0.168 WP48]
C: Shaquille O’Neal [7.9 Wins Produced, 0.167 WP48]
Potential Second String
PG: Daniel Gibson [0.6 Wins Produced, 0.015 WP48]
SG: Anthony Parker [6.3 Wins Produced, 0.114 WP48]
SF: Jamario Moon [8.4 Wins Produced, 0.194 WP48]
PF: Leon Powe [4.8 Wins Produced, 0.187 WP48]
C: Zydrunas Ilgauskas [3.4 Wins Produced, 0.093 WP48]
Of these ten players, eight posted WP48 numbers that were above average in 2008-09; and Ilgauskas has been above average much of his career. The only player who has never been above average is Gibson. So at this point, this roster is
a. better than what we saw last year, and
b. better than anything assembled by any other franchise in the NBA this year, and perhaps
c. one of the greatest NBA teams ever (remember, last years’ team ranked 5th in efficiency differential since 1973-74).
In sum, the Cavaliers (and I think many people know this) are the favorites to win the 2009 title.
Two Issues
Now there are two potential problems. Delonte West finished third on the Cavaliers in Wins Produced in 2008-09. As reported, though, he currently is having problems. If West can’t play, Anthony Parker will probably move into the starting line-up. Behind Parker is rookie Daniel Green, who was above average in college last season. So the Cavaliers have depth (as note above). Nevertheless, if West can’t play the entire season Cleveland will be hurt.
And then there is the issue of Shaq. Before the 2010 playoffs begin Shaq will turn 37. In basketball age, that’s ancient. Less than 2% of all seasons played in the NBA since 1977-78 have been played by people 37 or older. In fact, only 46 times has a player logged 1,500 minutes in a season when he was 37 or older.
The good news for the Cavs is that the list of players who managed to do this rank among the very best in NBA history. For example, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Karl Malone, David Robinson, John Stockton, Robert Parish, Hakeem Olajuwon, Scottie Pippen, Reggie Miller, Charles Oakley, Artis Gilmore, and Patrick Ewing all played significant minutes after 36 years of age. And all were still above average (at least in one season after 36 years of age).
That being said, at some point age takes its toll and the production stops. Will that “some point” happen this year for Shaq? If it does, the Cavs still have Ilgauskas. But Ilgauskas is also “old” and was not above average last year. So Shaq playing – and playing well – is important for Cleveland.
If Shaq and West are available and productive the entire season – and significant injuries do not occur elsewhere on the roster – Cleveland will be a very formidable team. And this means the city of Cleveland – a city that has suffered more than most with respect to sports – may actually be able to host a championship parade. Sure, such a parade might end with LeBron leaving town. At the very least, though, a parade will be a nice memory for the long-suffering fans of Cleveland sports.
– DJ
The WoW Journal Comments Policy
Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.
The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score
Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:
Simple Models of Player Performance
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.
Wages of Wins Journal 
Steve Walters
October 2, 2009
Yikes. This rundown is a little scary, from a Celtics-fan point of view.
I may have to go to Vegas and put down an “emotional hedge” wager, putting my money on the Cavs in order to protect against the sadness I would feel if LeBron & Co. beat the Green in the playoffs.
LeBron seems a likable enough sort that I could take consolation cashing in on such a bet; Kobe et al, never…
Don Taylor
October 2, 2009
Having followed the off season NBA moves, I recall saying to myself, “It seems as if Danny Ferry reads Wages of Wins.” Dallas’s moves and attempted moves also seemed very WoW friendly. I hope these ideas and those like it are having an impact on front office decision makers.
Brizzle
October 3, 2009
You can toss oall thi out the window.
Phil Jackson only wins championships in 3’s.
Fellas
October 3, 2009
Barring injuries and the like, the Cav’s could well get a new record reg. season game wins. Wonder what “odds” you would get on that.
Arturo
October 3, 2009
Yep, seems like the Cavs have built the ultimate WOW team (even with the caveats). I’m a Celtics fan and the moon/parker/powe signings worried the hell out of me. The prof. called celtics in 07 and lakers in 08 they both won (chicago in 06 was kind of embarrassing though so we won’t mention it again). I wouldn’t argue with this one either.
Michael
October 3, 2009
Cavs have the best team and the best player, but the Celtics still have the best starting 5 in the East imo
todd2
October 3, 2009
This team looks scary on paper—size, speed and depth. In the East, anything’s possible with Dwight Howard, and the Celts will have to shorten games to keep their starters on the floor—slow the pace down and keep scores close ’til the end. Ugly…
BTW, Garnett, Pierce, Allen and Wallace can’t defend.
Sam
October 3, 2009
It seems to me that the Cavs really only upgraded one position: back-up 3. They swapped out the below-average Pavlovic for the above average Moon. Wally Z for Anthony Parker seems to be even in WoW terms, as does Big Ben for Shaq. An injured Powe out for 2/3rds of the season is unlikely to be a significant upgrade over Hickson.
Furthermore I don’t think we’re going to see a lot of the Varejao/Shaq starting line-up. I checked 82games to see the lineups Mike Brown was most comfortable with, and it’s apparent that he strongly preferred line-ups with at least one big man with shooting range (Line-ups featuring a shooter at the 4 or 5 played more than 75% of overall floortime for the Cavs). With Ilgauskas as the only shooting big man on the roster and the Shaq/Ilgauskas pairing an unlikely one, I think we’re going to see a lot of either Jamario Moon or LBJ at the 4 while Shaq is at the 5, with Varejao and Big Z off the bench.
So while I’d agree that the Cavs do look better, I’d like to know how LBJ and Jamario will fare at the 4.
Brizzle
October 4, 2009
The previous poster is right. This Cavs team is one of the greatest teams of all time. Even though Shaq is over the hill, Mo “I deserve to be an All-Star” Williams is a fraud, Lebron still doesn’t have a consistent jumper, Delonte West is more unstable than a bag of cats, and Mike Brown might be the most offensively incompetent coach in the league. This Cavs team will be unbelievable against the awful teams, but just like last year they will fail to do well against the top tier teams.
kevin
October 5, 2009
Shouldn’t there be a major asterisk attached to Powe’s name there, Dave? After all, he is recovering from a serious knee injury, an injury that doubled up on a previous one. I wouldn’t be surprised if he is so hampered, he’ll be no use at all.
Brent
October 5, 2009
Someone should point out that JJ Hickson is still very young and had an injury last season. There could be some improvement there.
Chris
October 10, 2009
“With Ilgauskas as the only shooting big man on the roster…”
Hickson , to be certain, does have the ability to shoot. If he picked up on Brown’s defensive rotations, he’s going to be a huge contributor this year.
If he were playing in L.A., people would be calling him a young Karl Malone.
Ed
October 10, 2009
Sam-
Please explain to me how A) Shaq replacing Ben Wallace, and B) Parker replacing Szerbiak are both a wash. I’m eager to read your explanation. Doubt I’ll hear back though.
james
October 22, 2009
great site…….. I will be coming back throughout the NBA season. I’m new to blogging but I definitely want to keep up with yours.
keep in touch,
james
Chicago Tim
August 6, 2010
No.