The Toronto Raptors appear to be on a mission. Somehow, someway, this team needs to convince Chris Bosh to stay in Canada. The issue for the Raptors isn’t money. To convince Bosh to stay, Toronto must convince Bosh that he will someday play for a winner. So far, though, the facts presented to Bosh haven’t been too convincing.
Bosh came to Toronto in 2003. Since his arrival the Raptors have only posted a record beyond the 0.500 mark once. In 2006-07, the Raptors won 47 games. The next season the Raptors only won 41 games. And then last year – as Table One indicates – Toronto won just 33 games.
Table One: Toronto Raptors in 2008-09
After such a poor season it’s not surprising the Raptors have decided to make changes.
Rebuilding the Raptors?
Actually “some” is an understatement. When we look at the players who were with the Raptors twelve months ago, only three – Bosh, Jose Calderon, and Andrea Bargnani – are still playing with Toronto.
When we look back at Table One we see nine players who produced in the negative range. Most of these players are now gone (Bargnani and Patrick O’Bryant – a midseason addition last year – remain). Three more below average players (Joey Graham, Pops Mensah-Bonsu, and Will Solomon) have also departed. Unfortunately, the re-shaping of Toronto’s roster means that Anthony Parker [6.3 Wins Produced, 0.114 WP48], Jamario Moon [6.0 Wins Produced, 0.210 WP48], Shawn Marion [3.7 Wins Produced, 0.184 WP48], and Kris Humphries [0.7 Wins Produced, o.118 WP48] have also left town (Moon departed in the trade that brought Marion to Toronto).
It’s interesting where these players will play in 2009-10. Moon and Parker will be part of the rotation in Cleveland, a team that clearly has aspirations to win the NBA title in 2010. Another team that hopes to go far in the playoffs is Dallas, and they added Marion and Humphries. In sum, the four above average players that were allowed to depart Toronto went to teams that have been quite good in the past and plan to be quite good in the future.
Of course, losing “good” players isn’t a problem if you add even better players. To see if this happened, let’s consider Toronto’s potential depth chart (taken from ESPN.com and Yahoo.com):
Potential First String
PG: Jose Calderon [11.5 Wins Produced, 0.236 WP48]
SG: Marco Belinelli [0.1 Wins Produced, 0.007 WP48]
SF: Hedo Turkoglu [6.7 Wins Produced, 0.115 WP48]
PF: Andrea Bargnani [-0.3 Wins Produced, -0.006 WP48]
C: Chris Bosh [9.9 Wins Produced, 0.162 WP48]
Potential Second String
PG: Jarrett Jack [4.4 Wins Produced, 0.079 WP48]
SG: DeMar DeRozan [Rookie]
SF: Antoine Wright [-2.4 Wins Produced, -0.076 WP48]
PF: Reggie Evans [3.5 Wins Produced, 0.147 WP48]
C: Rasho Nesterovic [-1.3 Wins Produced, -0.051 WP48]
From this list it appears that Anthony Parker’s minute will be going to Marco Belinelli and/or DeMar DeRozan (and maybe Antoine Wright). Parker was above average last year while Belinelli (in limited minutes) was well below average. DeRozan is a rookie taken with the 8th pick in the 2009 NBA draft. His draft position suggests he could be above-average, although his college numbers tell a very different story. Of the 47 players taken out of college last year, DeRozan ranked 39th in PAWS40 [Position Adjusted Win Score per 40 minutes]. Such numbers suggest that the move from Parker to Belinelli-DeRozan is not a step forward for Toronto.
And then there is the Hedo Turkoglu acquisition. Here is what I said about this move last July:
In a move that dashed some hope in Portland, Toronto “stole” Turkoglu with a contract that will pay the former Magic player more than $10 million per season (and one wonders if the NBA Finals impacted that contract). For his career, Turkoglu has produced 41.4 wins with a 0.105 WP48. Average WP48 is 0.100. So Turkoglu has been essentially average across his career. And now he is 30 years of age (not a good age for an NBA player) and will turn 31 before the next season ends (an even worse age for an NBA player).
Again, the numbers suggest Toronto has taken a step backwards. Both Moon and Marion have been far above average in their respective careers. Going from above average to average should not be considered progress. Especially given the money paid to Turkoglu.
These were not the only moves the Raptors made. At power forward Toronto has added Reggie Evans and Amir Johnson [2.7 Wins Produced, 0.147 WP48]. Both of these players are above average (although each play behind Bargnani). And at point guard, Jarrett Jack was added to the roster. Jack was close to average last year. If Jack simply takes the minutes of Roko Ukic and Will Solomon, the Raptors are clearly better. If Jack takes some minutes from Jose Calderon – the most productive player on the Raptors last year – then Toronto is worse off.
Toronto did not stop with the acquisitions of Evans, Johnson, and Jack. As noted, in reshaping the roster a number of players who produced in the negative range last year were jettisoned. Unfortunately it appears that Toronto can’t live without such players. Antoine Wright, Rasho Nesterovic, Marcus Banks [-0.075 WP48 for entire season], Quincy Douby [-0.015 WP48 for entire season], and Patrick O’Bryant [-0.056 WP48 for entire season] have all been added or retained from last year’s roster. And all of these players produced in the negative range last year.
When we put the entire picture together, it doesn’t look too good for fans of Toronto. The Raptors will still employ the services of Calderon and Bosh, and these players produced about 21 wins last year. And it’s possible that Turkoglu, Jack, Evans, and Johnson can contribute another 15 wins. After these players, though, who else is going to produce significant quantity of wins? And if no one else produces much, how will Bosh believe that the Raptors are building a contender?
More on Bosh and Bargnani
One might ask if it’s necessary for the Raptors to appease Bosh. Across Bosh’s career he has produced 51.7 wins and posted a 0.152 WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes]. If we exclude his first two seasons we see in the past four seasons he has posted a 0.179 WP48; with a career high of 0.210 in 2006-07. In sum, Bosh is a good player. But he is not LeBron James or Dwight Howard. In other words, Toronto is going to need quite a bit more if it’s ever going to contend for a title.
Is that something more Bargnani? Bargnani was the first player taken in the 2006 NBA draft. Across his first three seasons he has produced -5.4 wins and posted a -0.043 WP48. Obviously these are very poor numbers. Fans of Bargnani, though, have argued that he played much better in the second half of the 2008-09 season. If we compare Bargnani in the first 41 games of 2008-09 to the second 41 games (i.e. split the season exactly in half), then it doesn’t appear Bargnani got any better. In the first half his Wins Score per 48 minutes [WS48] was 8.1. In the second half he posted a 7.6 WS48. To put that in perspective, an average power forward posts a 10.4 WS48; so Bargnani was very below average in both the first and second half of the 2008-09 season (for a power forward).
Basketball-Reference.com does offer month-by-month performance data, and this view might make Bargnani fans a bit happier. Here is Bargnani’s WS48 by month last season:
- October: 14.4 WS48 in 50 minutes
- November: 9.1 WS48 in 401 minutes
- December: 2.0 WS48 in 392 minutes
- January: 9.4 WS48 in 569 minutes
- February: 7.2 WS48 in 441 minutes
- March: 11.5 WS48 in 399 minutes
- April: 5.0 WS48 in 201
If a person focuses only on March, it looks like Bargnani is an above average power forward. To keep this belief, though, you have to ignore what happened in November, December, January, February, April, 2007-08, and 2006-07. So you have to ignore quite a bit to keep believing in Bargnani. But if one tries really hard, a positive view can be kept.
Apparently, the Raptors were able to accomplish this feat. In the off-season, Bargnani was signed to a new $50 million dollar contract. If Bargnani can replicate what he did last March, he might live up to most of his new paycheck. Unfortunately one suspects that November, December, January, February, April, 2007-08, and 2006-07 were not a fluke. It seems likely that Bargnani is never going to live up to his new contract.
Given the money paid, though, Toronto appears to believe Bargnani can be part of a winning team. And that will be true if Toronto acquires a few more players like Calderon and Bosh. Until that happens, though, Toronto is not likely to contend for a title. And keeping Bosh seems less and less likely.
– DJ
The WoW Journal Comments Policy
Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.
The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score
Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:
Simple Models of Player Performance
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.
Wages of Wins Journal 
Tball
October 22, 2009
Not sure “some” was an understatement so much as an unrealized intention. I think you meant to say “the Raptors have decided to make SOME changes.”
The Raptors may be better off by failing to convince Bosh to stay. Surely you need to build a roster of above average players to compete, but league perception seems to be that Bosh (and Wade and Anthony and LBJ) are max contract guys. Since perception is reality, Bosh is going to be a max contract somewhere. But you don’t build championship teams giving max contracts to above average players.
If Bosh stays, with a max contract, the Raptors could be handcuffed for years to come by that contract with Bargnani and Calderon. Perhaps their best chance at building a team is to be repudiated by Bosh mid-season and trade him for a player or two still on rookie deals and a pick or two. Portland could probably put pieces together to make it worthwhile.
dberri
October 22, 2009
Tball,
Excellent observations. Trading Bosh in mid-season probably is their best move.
dberri
October 22, 2009
Trading Bargnani, if that were possible, might be even better.
simon
October 22, 2009
Thanks for the article. Bagnani’s name’s misspelled as Andrew instead of Andrea in the first string list.
One thing though, is that Calderon was not healthy last season and guys like him, Bosh and Nestrovic were all underperformed compared to their previous years so there’s a good chance they will perform better this season along with still young Bargnani. Which means there’s still a decent hope for the team to make the playoff with 40+ wins. Or at least that’s why I tell myself to keep things positive as a fan.
FanFeedr
October 22, 2009
Prof. Berri,
The only change I would make is that Bargnani actually plays center for the Raptors, and I wonder how that changes your calculations. Bargnani is 7ft/250, while Bosh is two inches shorter and 30 lbs lighter.
SWaN
October 22, 2009
Bargnani seems to be a strong example of your premise that scoring is overvalued in the NBA. Occassionally he gets hot in his shooting and some Toronto fans get excited. But his rebounding has always been poor.
As Colangelo spent a first round pick on him, Bargs seems likely to stay a Raptor until there is a new GM.
Bosh is not at same level as Paul, James, or Duncan. But does not seem Raptors can trade him for them! Maybe New York will throw their money at Bosh and Raptors can get some free agent bargains like David Lee.
I am hopeful that Bosh and Calderon will be better this year than they were last year. For Bosh its a contract year. Jose had some injuries last year.
I do expect Raptors to be better than a 33 win team this year, but not sure if they can break 41.
Credit Colangelo with adding Moon and Parker to the Raps. Hopefully this year he has found some new unexpected success story.
dberri
October 22, 2009
Thanks for noting the spelling on Bargnani’s first name.
As for Bargnani’s position.. I have seen him listed at power forward or center. Last year, centers were on average more productive than power forwards (most years there is little difference). So if you move Bargnani to center, he looks even worse.
Daniel
October 22, 2009
Calderon has one of the best contracts in the league, and yet they still manage to screw up the rest of the roster.
It’s not as bad as New Orleans and Chris Paul, though… How can you get 4x the average production out of one player and still have lousy players taking up nearly every roster spot? David West and Peja’s contracts are going to end up costing the Hornets the best player in the league.
simon
October 22, 2009
Daniel//
I guess this is not yet linked to Toronto fan foums. If it gets linked, you can bet fans will march in to say how the system overrates rebounds and Bargnani is underrated here, and they will add how the system overrates Calderon and there’s no way he’s an elite player due to horrible defense, lack of aggressiveness, etc. I must say Colangelo has done a great PR job.
dberri
October 22, 2009
In my experience, anytime I say a team is not that good, the fans go on the warpath. This was even true recently for fans of the Sacramento Kings.
simon
October 22, 2009
dberri//
The Kings post only attracted one aggressive fan whereas your last post on the Raptors brought all sorts of fans, including our UotT grad Sunil.
Maybe he will bring his Stanford professor brother to question the model this time. At least I hope he spent some efforts to understand your argument this time.
Tim
October 22, 2009
Stats and paper rosters are one thing. When the players get out on the court it’s something different. While I’m sure there is a great formula for figuring out the numbers you presented, how accurate are they really? What would you wager on the Raptors record this season based on your fomula? Formulas don’t take into account last seasons injuries, coaching change, working around Jermaine and then Marion, players who are playing for a contract next year.
I don’t have a formula. I see the Raps winning 44 Games this year and having a really good second half once they gel. I see them not trading Bosh midseason and finishing 6th in the East (where they’ll go on to play Orlando again and set up a Turk vs. VC battle for the ages).
Just one fans thoughts.
-Tj
simon
October 22, 2009
Tim//
Staying healthy is a legitimate concern and that’s something statistics cannot predict. Coaching also cannot really be predicted in the sense that we don’t really know how Triano will distribute minutes over the course of a season. However the individual player performance tends to be fairly stable in basketball compared to other sports like baseball.
Regarding your questions on this formula, many them are already explained in dberri’s book Wages of Wins in detail, more precisely the chapters 6~10 except 9. If you’re living in Toronto, the Reference library downtown has a copy on the second floor. (Sorry dberri)
Rob O'Malley
October 22, 2009
Hey DBerri,
Do you think you’ll do a post on rookie pre-season numbers? I vaguely remember you doing some in the past. Maybe not specifically rookies but some commentary on the pre season. DeJuan Blair has been ridiculous!
khandor
October 23, 2009
David,
This is a solid analysis of the Raptors’ current situation … and one which made me LOL on more than one occasion when reading it through the first time.
When your “numbers” and my “acumen” are pointing in the same direction, history says there’s a good chance of things playing out this exact way in the closed environment that is the NBA.
Most of all, I agree with your follow-up comment that a move to trade Bargnani rather than Bosh is the best possible way for the Raptors to go at this time, if their long term goal is actually trying to win a league championship for the good folks of Toronto.
Two quick points:
1. re: As noted, in reshaping the roster a number of players who produced in the negative range last year were jettisoned. Unfortunately it appears that Toronto can’t live without such players.
Hilarious AND accurate, on your part. :-)
2. Bargnani’s relatively “good” March is attributable to the arrival and performance of one Shawn Marion. Unfortunately, The Matrix is not on the Raptors roster this season. Marion was a difference-maker for the Raptors last season WHENEVER HE WAS USED AS THE #4/PF beside Chris Bosh [#5/C] AND BARGNANI WAS ALLOWED TO PLAY MORE OF HIS MINUTES WITH THE TEAM’S 2nd UNIT.
Italian Stallion
October 24, 2009
D Berri,
IMHO, the issue of Bargnani rating so terribly isn’t whether to classify him as a C or PF. It’s his hybrid style of play.
The vast majority of Cs and PFs play close to the basket where they can be efficient scorers and get more rebounds. Bargnani plays a lot more on the perimeter shooting from the outside where in general players will be less efficient and less able to get an occasional offensive rebound.
I know I get very repetitive on some of these issues, but that’s because I haven’t gotten an adequate response.
IMO, you can’t classify a player that plays more like a SF on offense as either a C or PF just because he’s tall and defends Cs and PFs. They will always rate below what they are actually contributing.
There is almost universal agreement among coaches and observers that floor spacing matters. That is, a successful team needs some decent outside shooters so the defense can’t collapse around the efficient inside shooters that are typically PFs and Cs. That shooting typically comes from the guards and SF.
If Bargnani can be an average or better outside shooter, then he is filling that role. In fact, he may fell it better than the typical SF because he’ll be drawing another very tall man away from the basket and allowing players like Bosh or others to have a better chance of getting an offensive rebound or scoring around the basket than they would otherwise.
I have no solution for how to rate these hybrid players because typically the issue of inside scoring vs. outside scoring is captured by positional adjustments. But when it is not (in either direction), I think it has to be noted.
I will add that if you are going to play a guy like Bargnani a lot of minutes, then you almost certainly need someone at one of the other positions that is an excellent rebounder and good around the basket. I thought Shawn Marion was perfect for them last year and when they got him, I though the team started playing better. I’m not familiar enough with the rest of their current players to guess if they have the right mix.
PS: I’m not making the case that Bargnani is a very good player etc.. I’m just saying he’s not as bad as he looks because he’s bringing things to the table that most Cs and PF don’t, but those things count against him negatively on this metric.
dberri
October 24, 2009
IS,
Three points…
No one classifies Bargnani as a SF. He is listed as either a PF or C.
If you decide to list him as a SF, who is playing with Bosh in the frontcourt. Turkoglu? He doesn’t look good as a PF or C either.
Even if you list Bargnani as a SF, he is still not worth $50 million.
reservoirgod
October 24, 2009
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Italian Stallion
October 24, 2009
d.berri,
I realize that no one lists him as a SF, but perhaps I am highlighting a universal problem with positional assignments.
We tend to assign players to certain positions based on size or who they defend. However, on the offensive end some players don’t fit into such a neat package. When a player like that is compared to others at the same “supposed position” IMO he may look better or worse because of his unique skill set relative to the norm.
In the case of Toronto, I agree there is no one to assign to the front court. That might highlight a glaring weakness in the makeup of this team, but that’s not necessarily Bargnani’s fault. If I was building that team and was hell bent on starting Bargnani, I would look for a F that plays really well inside offensively, that could rebound well, but defend a SF. I don’t care what you want to call him, but on offense I’d want him to play more like a PF and on defense more like SF.
I’m not sure what Bargnani is worth, but even I think 50M is preposterous.
simon
October 24, 2009
IS//
I doubt it. There are other perimeter oriented big men like Okur, Nowitzki, Troy Murphy, Matt Bonner, Rashard Lewis, etc, and they all fare better than Bargnani in this system. Lewis is the only player who might be treated unfair by the system but at the same time one could argue that it just shows Howard’s dominance.
The problem with Bargnani is simple; the only thing he brings to the table that other centres doesn’t bring is outside shooting and the subsequent scoring number. If he’s really like a SF playing C like you suggest, then we should see his passing and steals reflect that, but they don’t.
He has skills so he might be better in the future, but so far in his career Bargnani’s mainly been a stand-still outside shooting post player, a taller, more mistake-prone, less-accurate version of Matt Bonner with more blocks if you will.
Italian Stallion
October 25, 2009
Simon,
I think players like Dirk are also better than they look.
I think whenever a big man can also score effectively from outside, that ADDITIONAL skill set works against him statistically because he’s often being compared to PFs and Cs that only play inside where their TS% and rebounding rate is likely to be higher.
Basically, I think floor spacing matters, but you don’t get credit for it in the stats.
NO big deal if you are comparing SGs, but a factor if you are comparing David Lee to Dirk. To me, the margin between Dirk and Lee is greater than it looks (even though I like Lee a lot also).
To be clear, I’m not arguing Bargnani has been a good player. I am arguing that he’s been less bad than it looks.
Italian Stallion
October 25, 2009
Simon,
By the way, the same might be true of someone like Larry Bird to a smaller degree.
I consider Larry Bird a SF.
However, he played some PF. I have not seen his rating if you just considered him a SF instead of accounting for his time as PF, but I’m sure it’s higher.
When he played PF, it’s possible he was in a position to get a few extra rebounds, but he still spent a ton of time on the perimeter relative to a guy like McHale.
The idea would be if you are going to play Bird at PF drawing a big man out, then other players should do better inside. However, IMHO, Bird’s skill outside would deserve some of the credit for that.