Greg Steele is a graduate student at Abilene Christian University. He has been married for two years and likes to read. He used to play basketball, and got into the blog while looking for ways to better describe what happens during NBA games.
Last year the Houston Rockets went 42-40, finishing in the unenviable position of being the final team to pick in the lottery section of the draft (and playing well enough to be the best team not to make the playoffs). Their absence from the playoffs was primarily due to the loss of Yao Ming to injury, which prevented him from playing a single minute during the season.
The Ming story, though, was not the only interesting story-line in Houston. The Rockets also made a splash by completing a three-team trade with Sacramento and New York, dumping the expiring contract of oft-injured shooting guard Tracy McGrady. In what follows, I will offer what I hope to be a conservative estimate of how the Rockets should perform next season, based mostly on their performance last season and their recent injury history. This review will examine each position on the team, listing not only the players I think the team will employ, but also the number of wins each position can be expected to produce.
The Center Position
Our examination begins in the pivot. In the previous 4 seasons (2005-08), Yao Ming has averaged 9.5 Wins Produced per season. He was able to accomplish such results despite averaging only 59.3 games a season due to injury. After sustaining such significant damage over such an extended period of time, it is probably unrealistic to project the Rockets to receive the benefit of Yao’s services for a full 82 games (fortunately for Houston, Yao has bounced back well from his previous injuries — although he has been re-injured each year).
For the projections for next year’s Rockets, we will have to start with Yao’s injury-year average as a guess. If Yao only plays 59 games, the Rockets will have to play 23 games with a starting center other than Yao. To redress this need, the Rockets signed aging center Brad Miller to an expensive three-year contract. Although Miller has been above average throughout his career, last year his WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes] plummeted to -.015. With that level of productivity across a projected 1,600 minutes (59 games * 15 mpg with Yao, 23 games * 30 mpg without Yao), Miller should cost the Rockets about half of a win. Additionally, the undersized Chuck Hayes – who spent some time at center last year — will probably play around 414 minutes (15 mpg without Yao), during which time he should add about one win (his WP48 last year was 0.099). Taking all centers into consideration (assuming Yao’s WP48 is what it was before he got hurt), Houston should accumulate 8.8 wins produced from the pivot this year.
The Power Forward Position
Last year the Rockets employed both Luis Scola and Carl Landry at this position, both of whom have been quite productive. Late in the season, Landry began to struggle, and the Rockets leveraged him in their three-way trade with New York and Sacramento (primarily engineered to get something in return for Tracy McGrady’s expiring contract). In the trade, the Rockets acquired Jordan Hill and Jared Jeffries. Hill was a rookie who surprisingly produced 1.4 wins in only 372 minutes for the Rockets last year. Jeffries, though, has been below average throughout his NBA career and this continued in Houston.
With these players on board, the Rockets will have four players at the 4 spot. Scola will start. Since he has averaged 7.2 wins across his first three seasons – in nearly 2,400 minutes — we can expect him to be productive again (and since he should only play PF, his production should be even higher). Off the bench we see Hayes, Hill, and Jeffries. If these three players split the minutes after Scola the team will see 11.0 wins from this position. Of course, if Hayes and Hill play more than Jeffries the team will do even better.
The Small Forward Position
The Rockets acquired Trevor Ariza last year, and his WP48 then plummeted from the .250-.300 range to .081, prompting a firestorm of debate on this blog about usage statistics. Shane Battier began the year in the starting lineup, but moved into the sixth man role with the arrival of Kevin Martin. With the Rockets just recently giving away Ariza in a multi-team trade, Battier should return to the starting small forward spot. Battier has been somewhat above average throughout his career, and so projecting his production from last year across 2700 minutes yields 5.6 wins produced (if he produces as he did last year). With the arrival of Courtney Lee in the Ariza trade, it would seem that the Rockets are fully stocked at shooting guard, and thus sophomore wing Chase Budinger should spend most of his minutes at small forward. Budinger, a rare above-average rookie last season (.111 WP48), would produce 3.1 wins during 1,000 minutes of playing time if he produces next year like he did last year. All told, Houston should expect about 10.0 wins produced from their small forwards this coming season.
The Shooting Guard Position
The big news at shooting guard was the departure of Tracy McGrady, a former superstar who has been repeatedly injured during the last four seasons. In the three-team trade that sent McGrady to New York, the Rockets acquired Kevin Martin, another frequently injured — although potentially quite productive– shooting guard. During the seasons since his rookie year, Kevin Martin has averaged 6.9 wins produced in 62 games (2,105 minutes).
If Martin meets those averages next season, Courtney Lee should play somewhere around 1,700 minutes. Lee, who posted a .075 WP48 last season, would probably produce 2.7 wins during that time. Jermaine Taylor, an unproductive rookie last season [0.018 WP48], is unlikely to play a significant amount while Martin is healthy (although he may play a bit if Martin gets injured). Since his WP48 was significantly below average but still above zero, his net effect on the Rockets’ estimated wins produced for shooting guard should be minimal. He won’t contribute much, but he won’t cost the Rockets any wins.
If Martin is at something like his average level of fitness and productivity, Houston should receive the benefit of 7.3 wins from their shooting guards. Of all the estimates, however, this one is the shakiest. Martin may well miss significant time on account of injury, or his productivity may be significantly hampered by past injuries.
The Point Guard Position
The Most Improved Player in the NBA in 2009-10 (at least according to the league award) was Rockets point guard Aaron Brooks. During his 2,919 minutes, Brooks produced 2.3 wins (.049 WP48). Fortunately for Houston, Brooks’ backup, Kyle Lowry, shined. Splitting minutes between the two backcourt spots as a combo guard, Lowry produced 6.5 wins in 1,651 minutes (.188 WP48). Although the Rockets could improve their performance dramatically simply by swapping the number of minutes allocated to these two players, they seem unlikely to do so, since Brooks is regarded as a rising star. As it stands, the Rockets should get about 6.2 wins from the two point guards (with Lowry only getting minutes at the point).
Putting it All Together
Okay, let’s put the entire picture together. The following picture summarizes what I just said about each position:
And as this picture indicates, it seems that a reasonable estimate for the Houston Rockets in 2010-11 would be a 43 wins produced, or a record of 43-39. Such a record would not have qualified Houston for the playoffs last season. It is worth noting, however, that the Rockets could expect nearly five more wins from Yao and Martin if both played a full slate (as unlikely as that seems). If Yao and Martin happen to both be healthy and productive at season’s end, though, Houston would pose a difficult first-round matchup for a stronger team.
Shawn Ryan and Dave Berri have given better reviews of the Houston-NewYork-Sacramento trade than I can here. In the end, Houston traded Carl Landry, Joey Dorsey, and Tracy McGrady (along with his expiring contract) in return for Kevin Martin, Jordan Hill, Jared Jeffries, and two possible lottery picks from the New York Knicks. If the Knicks continue to perform poorly, Houston may have made a fairly good deal on the whole. For the present, they will miss Landry and will have to hope that Kevin Martin stays healthy (essentially the same situation they have been in the last several years with Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady). Houston missed the playoffs last year, with Yao missing the entire season. This season, if Yao is able to play about as many games as he usually does, the Rockets may sneak into the bottom of the Western Conference playoffs. If Yao Ming and Kevin Martin are healthy, they might go even higher.
Although the McGrady trade didn’t hurt the Rockets (and may have helped quite a bit), the more recent trade, however, is profoundly less defensible. From Houston’s perspective, the Rockets traded Trevor Ariza for Courtney Lee. Although other teams were involved, this was the total outcome of the swap for Houston. While the deal will save them cap space, it seems inadvisable to give away a player who has consistently produced WP48s well in excess of .200 in return for a below-average performer.
Despite their personnel changes, the Rockets are right where they were at the beginning of last season — and in fact at the beginning of the last several seasons – hoping that their oft-injured star players will be healthy and productive. If Yao and Martin produce at full capacity, the Rockets have the supporting cast to the push them closer to the top of the Western Conference. Unfortunately, this is basically the same prognosis one might have offered in any of the last four seasons, with the team merely replacing Kevin Martin with Tracy McGrady. After so many changes near the end of last season and during the offseason, it looks like more of the same in Houston this season.
– Greg Steele
Wages of Wins Journal 
Chicago Tim
August 30, 2010
I know you are being conservative, but it’s surprising to see you predict that even a 59 games from Ming will only gain the Rockets one more win, even though Ming himself will produce 8.4 wins. Where exactly did they lose the other 7.4 wins? I see you don’t like the Ariza trade, but Ariza didn’t produce 7.4 wins last year. I can’t quite figure out how Ming could add 8.4 wins but the team would only add one win.
Chicago Tim
August 30, 2010
Okay, Ariza was better than I thought last year, but Battier is about the same, so I still don’t understand where the Rockets lost most of what Ming is giving them.
StLreflections
August 30, 2010
I’m confused-
the numbers in your narrative for Center, Small forward, shooting guard, and point guard are different than in your chart. The narrative suggests 8.5, 8.7, 9.6, and 8.8 wins for each position, while the chart suggests 8.8, 10.0, 7.3, and 6.2 wins each. I’m confused, and that is a 3.3 win difference.
Daniel
August 30, 2010
I just don’t see Jeffries playing 750 minutes next season without significant injury problems…
One thing to note is that Martin has been spectacular in the past with a .200ish WP48. Nice article!
dberri
August 30, 2010
StLreflections,
That was my fault. The numbers you saw were from an earlier draft. As we edited the post, the numbers got changed (and those new numbers were used to generate the table). I have updated the post so it is consistent with the table.
Tommy_Grand
August 30, 2010
Good article.
Joe
August 30, 2010
The SG minutes subtotal is listed incorrectly.
Many of these Rockets players have been better at times in the past, though. Always an interesting team to follow. Doubt they win 50+ games in the end.
Man of Steele
August 30, 2010
Chicago Tim,
The main differences are 1) the loss of Ariza, as you mentioned, 2) effectively replacing the minutes that Carl Landry played with Brad Miller. Although the two play different positions, Miller is essentially taking some of the minutes that Chuck Hayes played at C last year, with Hayes playing a little bit of C and a little PF. Since Miller was rotten last year and is now old, the drop-off from Landry, who had been consistently well above average up until last year, to Miller should be substantial. Also, although the impact of this third factor is minimal, it seems likely that Courtney Lee will eat into Kyle Lowry’s minutes a little, so the Rockets seem to have lost a little in backcourt as well. Your question was actually my initial reaction when I first looked at all the data; “How can they have Yao and hardly be any better?”
Although I would have to check this out, I believe the Rockets’ wins produced last year was only 40, even though they actually went 42-40, so (if the WP total is correct) they are actually more like 3 games better than last year.
Shawn Ryan
August 30, 2010
I read quite a bit from the Rockets’ people on the Ariza-Lee trade. Morey’s very good at describing the transactions that he makes in terms that make them sound very reasonable, but also don’t, in my mind, have anything to do with the actual rational for the trade. Morey insists that it wasn’t a financial/cap decision, but if you look at the numbers, the deal really doesn’t make since under any other rationale. The reality is that the Rockets swapped a contract worth nearly $30M in guaranteed money for a contract worth $1.35M in guaranteed money.
That’s not to say that they plan to keep the savings, Morey is insistent that he has permission to use the $7M trade exception that he got in the trade in a deal that brings back as much salary (they are over the salary cap, so that could cost the team up to ~$14M), and that could be part of a series of deals that brings a higher tear player to Houston (unfortunately Jonathan Feigen seems to think that the Rockets like Carmelo, and there have been reports that the Nuggets favor a trade to the Rockets over the Knicks, and that Melo seems to be amenable to playing in Houston).
Going by what I’ve read, it seems to me that the Rockets saw Ariza as an under-performing asset, and blamed his decline in production on his mentality, namely that he was trying to be a breakout star and was not focusing on the strengths that they acquired him for.
brgulker
August 30, 2010
Who is the real Jordan Hill? That’s what I want to know. IIRC, he was pretty underwhelming in NY, then picked it up in a small sample size for Houston. Other than Budinger, he seems like the only unknown. If those guys make marginal to large improvements, that could add another win or two … if that matters or not might be interesting to watch.
reservoirgod
August 30, 2010
Nice job, Greg. I knew you had all those Rockets on your fantasy team for a reason… Lol. I agree w/ your analysis. I think it’s time for the bloom to come off Morey’s rose. He made the same mistake Pritchard made in Houston – gambling on injury-riddled players. I think the right move is to trade Yao (assuming they can get something credible for him) but I’ll be surprised if they do it.
todd2
August 30, 2010
Scola was a 27 year old rookie and turns 31 this season. His production will drop. It’ll be a brutal year for the Rockets if Yao can’t contribute. Their defense was horrendous. Aside from Yao, they’re a team of tweeners and needed to upgrade their speed.
Man of Steele
August 30, 2010
brgulker, Jordan Hill had a pretty small sample size in New York too, so I think the numbers accurately reflect the reality that his performance was uneven, not simply the result of insufficient sample size.
reservoirgod, I agree with you that the Rockets should trade Yao, but it seems to me that they could be getting more in their trades. They gave up way too much, in my opinion, in the McGrady trade. So although I’d like to get something in return for Yao, the Rockets would be very foolish to trade another player of Landry’s caliber simply to unload Yao.
Chicago Tim
August 30, 2010
Man of Steele — Thanks for the explanation. I take it you don’t object to the trade involving Landry, though, because of those two possible lottery picks from New York. It looks like Houston has to hope for healthy players, root against New York, and draft well.
Fans should keep closer track of all these traded draft picks. For example, I’m not only rooting for the Bulls, I’m also rooting against the Charlotte Bobcats, because the Bulls own their first round pick (top-14 protected in the 2012 Draft, top-12 protected in 2013, top-10 protected in 2014, top-8 protected in 2015 and unprotected in the 2016 draft).
Here’s a good page for keeping track of those traded picks:
http://www.realgm.com/src_future_draftpicks.php
brgulker
August 30, 2010
I agree. I think the sample is too small either way. So which player is he? We will see!
some dude
August 30, 2010
I have a hard time seeing the rockets win under 47 games as long as Yao is around for 60 of them and at 100% capacity during those games.
Will be an interesting team to watch.
arturogalletti
August 30, 2010
I’d expect Kevin Martin to revert to form (about .160 WP48) and Budinger to get better so I think 47 is realistic. I do think next year will be insanely competitive.
I’d love for them to offer to take Okafor “bad” contract. If I were a gm for Houston or Orlando I’d be begging NO to take that bad boy and put Okafor at the 4 next to Howard or Yao.
chibi
August 31, 2010
i believe miller’s knowledge of adelman’s offense + passing ability will allow for fringe players to be a bit more efficient, scoring off cuts and such.
i think courtney lee is somebody they can package in a deal for a superstar, something they might not have feasible with ariza’s more expensive, long-term contract.
Rockets fan
August 31, 2010
So, basically, if not a single Rocket improves (including their young players, Budinger, Lee, and Hill), if the Rockets have serious health problems, and not a single one of their veterans plays better than last year (even if last year was an odd down year for several of them), they will be an average team and no better than last year. How is this analysis helpful at all? It’s just assumes nothing changes from last year and then attempts to projects minutes. This isn’t analysis. It’s just mindless number crunching without any context at all. Your “analysis” is really nothing more than an assumption that nothing will change from last year, even if we have reason to believe to the contrary. If that’s your analysis, fine. But save all of us the time by telling us up front that you’re not doing actual thoughtful analysis. If I wanted to just take a look at last year’s numbers, I could do that.
Among other things, Scola played better last year once they traded Landry. Martin had a nagging injury that should be fully healed. Miller has been very good for a very long time, and seemed to have issues last year with the way he was used. Brooks (who is still quite young) played better in the second half than the first because he got used to running the offense and playing hefty minutes. Jefferies will get much less playing time this year. If you disagree with analysis like that, fine. But at least engage with the arguments why the Rockets might get better. Or, at least, provide more of an in-depth look at the numbers.
I had been looking forward to this post. But it was very disappointing.
Just my two cents.
Rockets fan
August 31, 2010
One more thing. You say the Rockets will miss Landry, but they won’t. He started to play badly last year when he became a primary scoring threat because he stopped rebounding. He’s still a good player because he’s such an efficient scorer. But he’s WS dropped a ton once he went to Sac because of the rebounding issue. The Rocket’s won’t miss him, especially since Martin is an upgrade over what they had.
Man of Steele
August 31, 2010
Rockets fan, I appreciate your critique. You’re absolutely right that I have relied primarily on performance from last year. I did say up front that what was attempting to present was a conservative projection. One could easily project a future where Yao and Martin play 82 games and the Rockets win over 50 games. However, due to their recent injury history, such an estimate would not be in accord with the data we have observed in the past and would quite likely proved wrong.
Also, I don’t think it’s quite right to simply summarize that “nothing has changed from last year.” The Rockets will be little better than last year in large part because they traded away Carl Landry and Trevor Ariza. Brad Miller played plenty of minutes last year, especially while Joakim Noah was injured. His problems seems to have more to do with an aging body than with the way he was used.
Finally, there is a difference between a failure to engage the evidence and a failure to project a future that is different from the past. You are correct that I have estimated the Rockets to produce about as many wins as last year (although a little better), this is not equivalent to spitting the numbers back out. The only Rockets player who was likely to perform better than last year was Trevor Ariza, whom they traded away, and Yao Ming, whose contributions above what he offered last year (nothing) I have taken into account. With regard to Kevin Martin, I chose to take an average of the years in which he has been injured as the most likely barometer of his performance.
Rockets Fan
August 31, 2010
But you have failed to engage the evidence. Brooks improved as the season went along, as his WS shows. Scola’s numbers improved as well. Rookies generally get better, so it would be shocking if Budinger put up exactly the same numbers again. Analysis would have perhaps included looking at how average rookies tend to do their second year. What does the evidence say about that? Miller’s drop is also something to look at. It was a huge aberration for him. Certainly, older players get worse. But without an injury as an explanation, it seems odd that he was so much worse. Is it really likely he will go from being a very good player to being one of the worst in the league in one year without an injury? That seems unlikely, especially because he’s not a guard, where quickness is so important.
My critique (which came across much harsher and mean spirited than I had intended and for that I apologize) really focused on the lack of analysis with respect to why you think this year might be different for an individual player than last year. Besides guessing at injuries (which I think is helpful and appropriate), you don’t do anything else with the numbers.
nerdnumbers
August 31, 2010
Rockets Fan,
A good thing to note is that from year to year a players performance stays pretty consistent (this is if you look at the last 33 years of Data). The big thing that changes year to year is minutes played. This is of course the hardest to guess at. Trades, injuries, fights with coaches affect this. Doing thoughtful analysis of the NBA starts best by looking at the best and applying and then then giving more speculation. We’re still two months out of the season (and a month away from the NBA games on consoles), don’t know the health of Yao, or even what the rest of the West looks like.
Also if you have the ability to look at the numbers yourself, go ahead and do so. From personal experience arranging and setting up numbers in a way that is helpful is not an easy task. It is somewhat offensive to point at people that do this and say “All you did was look at the numbers.” (which even after “apologizing” you still said)
Greg,
Awesome article. I think people won’t realize the effect of losing Landry and Ariza is if they don’t get something with the trade exception. What would make me laugh is if you traded say Chuck Hayes and Kevin Martin for Melo and the expected improved output :) I think the current Houston roster’s time has passed. Time to blow it up. I am sure you could probably get good picks and young players for Yao to someone.
Shawn Ryan
August 31, 2010
-Rockets Fan
“Analysis would have perhaps included looking at how average rookies tend to do their second year.”
This is in fact much more difficult than you may realize. Personally, I believe that Greg’s approach is legitimate. With rookies, one thing that people tend not to factor in is the sheer enormity of the number of players that fall off the face of the earth after their first, second or third seasons. Common “expert” analysis always seems to assume that rookies will improve in their second season, but as far as I can tell, this assumption is utterly unfounded. I think this assumption comes from selection bias. Usually, when you take a look at a player’s career arc, you are looking at someone who has already been successful in the NBA, i.e. lasted at least a few years. But this sort of thing completely ignores all of the players that played a little in their rookie, or sophomore seasons, and then wasted away on the bench, in the D-League or in Europe.
Also, the fact that a player is talented does not seem to make them immune to this sort of career arc. There are a lot of solid players in the D-league and Europe that never got a chance because players with “more potential” were available, even though they were less productive.
All that being said, it really does seem that the Rockets like Chase, and Morey implied that the Ariza deal was partially done to get him more playing time. In general, I am optimistic about Budinger, but I think that he is a bubble player in terms of league-wide name recognition, and especially with as much as Morey likes to moves players, he could easily be one trade away from being out of the league. I mean look at all of the Rudy Fernandez controversy. He is a player that is pretty similar to Budinger in terms of production as a rookie, and he even had more name recognition, and quite a bit of hype coming into the league. Now, after his sophomore season, he’s stuck playing less minutes than he should be on a deep team, and that could easily happen to Budinger. For these and other reasons, I don’t think that it is generally very good analysis to assume that rookies will improve.
“My critique […] really focused on the lack of analysis with respect to why you think this year might be different for an individual player than last year. Besides guessing at injuries (which I think is helpful and appropriate), you don’t do anything else with the numbers.”
I think that this is really a critique of style rather than substance, and I think you should be aware of that. The numbers are the numbers, and good analysis will be based on those numbers alone, and in the posts that I’ve done for this blog, I’ve tried to make sure that it was. I’ve also tried to comment on possible scenarios that could cause divergence from what the numbers say in order to add flavor, but these are conjecture, and are not really analysis. I believe that there is definitely a place for such conjecture, but it really shouldn’t be confused for analysis.
Shawn Ryan
August 31, 2010
-nerdnumbers
I disagree that it’s time for Houston to blow it up. You of all people know how rare top tear talent is in the draft, and also that the NBA Championship is as much about being in position to win and getting lucky as it is about being the best team. There are definite problems with the roster, but this roster has a reasonable chance of being very good (they also have a reasonable chance of narrowly missing the playoffs, it all depends on Yao and K-Mart). They still probably have a couple more runs left in them before Yao and Scola are cover athletes for . Plus, I don’t think anybody would want to give up much for a player with Yao’s injury past, so they aren’t likely to replace his production in trades…
Shawn Ryan
August 31, 2010
I disagree that it’s time for Houston to blow it up. You of all people know how rare top tear talent is in the draft, and also that the NBA Championship is as much about being in position to win and getting lucky as it is about being the best team. There are definite problems with the roster, but this roster has a reasonable chance of being very good (they also have a reasonable chance of narrowly missing the playoffs, it all depends on Yao and K-Mart). They still probably have a couple more runs left in them before Yao and Scola are cover athletes for AARP. Plus, I don’t think anybody would want to give up much for a player with Yao’s injury past, so they aren’t likely to replace his production in trades…
Greg Dickenson
August 31, 2010
I’m always happy to see analysis of the Rockets. But while I might quibble over some of the small observations (you think Lee is going to spend much time as back up shooting guard?) I think the article does a good job analyzing injuries, but I think the article jumps to conclusions on the utility of both Ariza and Landry.
arturogalletti
August 31, 2010
Anyone interested in a 2000 word piece on how I would run an NBA team? Click my name if interested.
Philippe
August 31, 2010
Couple quick comments:
1. Scola’s projected min show him being utilized on court only 29 min/game (assuming 82 games…what he has avgd the last three years). Considering he will no longer be platooning with Landry, it would seem to me that 35-37mi/game is more reasonable yielding 2900-3000min played on the season.
2. Shawn, I believe Rocketfan’s point regarding Chase is a valid one as is your comment about the uncertainty of predicting a rookie’s eventual success. I think a middle ground would be to compare those rookies who were above avg and had similar usage stats and see how they performed in the following year. I would guess that most rookies that were above avg and also had a relatively high usage and min/game did not end up leaving the league, so in that case all players would be included and an avg improvement or not would be valid.
3. I did not see an explanation for why Lowry’s min would drop by almost 40% this coming year. He was injured for about 15 games this past year, which based on his career is an aberration. He avgd 80 games played per year for the previous 2 years. Based on a bounce back to 75 games played and 24min/game (from 09-10) it would seem to me that he should be at around 1800min. Also, he and Brooks are often paired on the court for extended min, so whether you have Lowry as a 1 or a 2 in that situation doesn’t really matter other than the fact that he is on the court at the expense of players like Martin, Battier, Lee and Budinger.
4. You did not address Rocketfan’s comment regarding your projection for Miller. Correct me if I’m wrong here, but you used Yao’s avg performance over the last several years to predict his performance this year, but you only used Miller’s most recent performance to predict his performance this year. Why the difference in methodologies? Or did I miss something…
Man of Steele
August 31, 2010
A couple of comments: to rockets fan, I see where I could have been more explanatory in the article. A more useful piece (from that perspective) would have run something like this: Brad Miller fell off the face of the earth last, and is so old that he is not likely to return to previous form. Just looking at the Cleveland Cavaliers last year, who ahd the same thing happen with both Shaq and Ilgauskas. While they may have improved as the season wore on, Scoal and Brooks on the year performed as they have in rpevious seasons, as did Lowry and Battier. The only Rockets to significantly underperform last year relative to their typical performance were Ariza and Landry, who are no longer with the team. Thus, it is unlikely the Rockets’ performance will deviate much from what might be expected. A post like that would have constituted more of a comparative element (comparaing this year as opposed to last year).
Philippe, I may be wrong about Scola, but it seems to me that the confluence of Chuck Hayes playing more minutes at PF than he did last year and the addition of Jared Jeffries and Jordan Hill, younger players who are at least perceived as having great “potential,” may lead to Luis Scola spending less time on the floor than would be desirable. I limited Lowry’s minutes because I am not convinced that Houston will be employing the Brooks-Lowry backcourt very frequently with the addition of Courtney Lee. Lowry is now in the unenviable position of being the only non-scorer in a backcourt with three scorers. I used the average from previous years for Yao because he was unable to play at all last year, which does not look to be the case this year. The best way I know to deal with this lack of evidence is to view the body of Yao’s work during the seasons in which he ahs been injured. Miller is very old, and very old players tend to decline suddenly and rapidly (Dr. Berri has talked about this in some article, I think). Yao has not yet declined; his performance when he has been on the court has been basically stable, always above .200 WP48. So, I used different methodologies for the two players because I judged their circumstances to be sufficiently different that different methodologies were appropriate.
As a side note for Philippe, I hope things go the way you think they will; the Rockets will certainly win more games if that is the case.
Philippe
September 1, 2010
I don’t mean to harp on the minutes question too much, but most people who follow the Rockets would strongly disagree with your prediction for minutes.
Jeffries is on the roster as an expiring contract for future trades. He will not be playing 75% of the min that Lowry will be getting. He is likely going to be the last guy on the bench (behind Taylor and the rookie Patterson). He may get minutes in blowout situations, but that’s likely to be all. So maybe 100 min tops.
Also to think that the Rockets would sign Lowry to a deal worth 6 million/year and Scola to 9.4 million/year and not play them at least as much as they were playing them on their less expensive contracts is just not supported historically. When players get signed for big bucks they get minutes even if their performance doesn’t warrant those minutes. In both Lowry and Scola’s cases their play and pay suggest they will get substantial playing time.
Lee’s presence will bite into the min of Martin, Battier, and Brooks in my opinion. Both Lee and Lowry can guard some small forwards and Lowry can guard almost any 2.
reservoirgod
September 16, 2010
How does Houston’s announcement that Brad Miller & Chuck Hayes will be playing at least 24 mins/game at Center affect the team’s outlook?
RoxBeliever
September 18, 2010
Well, my Houston Rockets always love to surprise the experts, so let’s just wait for the season to begin.