Choosing a Player of the Game

Generally I like the columns of Steve Kerr.  In fact, a few weeks ago I liked what Steve Kerr had to say so much I repeated the same statement from Kerr twice (see HERE). Yesterday, though, in his summary of Team USA’s game against Germany, he argued that the player of the game was Carmelo Anthony.  If player of the game is “leading scorer,” then I understand Kerr’s choice.  But if player of the game means “most productive,” then I think a better choice could have been made.

Thus far I have argued that Anthony was not a very productive NBA player last year.   I have also stated that in Japan, Carmelo has been surprisingly the most productive player on Team USA.  If we just look at the game against Germany, though, I do not see how Carmelo is the player of that game.

To see my argument, let’s look at measuring player productivity in the NBA.  In The Wages of Wins we present two measures of performance (earlier explained HERE and HERE ). The first is Wins Produced, which is a measure that connects player performance fairly accurately to team wins.  Unfortunately, the calculation of Wins Produced requires a bit more effort than I find worth expending for the analysis of a single game.  Consequently, we also offer Win Score.  This is a very simple metric that can give you a quick summary of what a player did in one contest. 

Here is how Win Score is calculated: 

Points + Rebounds + Steals + ½*Assists + ½*Blocked Shots  –Field Goal Attempts – Turnovers –  ½*Free Throw Attempts –  ½*Personal Fouls

Here is what Carmelo Anthony did against Germany:

Points = 19

Rebounds = 4

Steals = 3

Assists = 0

Blocked Shots = 0

Field Goal Attempts = 19

Turnovers = 2

Free Throw Attempts = 3

Personal Fouls = 2

If we put these numbers together, we get the following: 

Carmelo Anthony’s Win Score = 19 + 4 + 3 + 0 + 0 – 19 – 2 – 1.5 – 0.5 = 3.0 

Anthony played 24 minutes, so his Win Score per minute was 0.125.  That is below average for an NBA small forward, although I am not sure how that compares to a small forward in international play.  Regardless, as we will see in a moment, this was not the best performance turned in by a member of Team USA. 

Where did Anthony go wrong?  His primary problem was shooting efficiency. Scoring 19 points in 24 minutes seems impressive.  But it is not the time on the clock that matters.  The key issue is how many shots you took.  Anthony took 19 shots, and from these shots he generated only 17 points (he scored two points from his free throw attempts).  And that results in a less than amazing level of efficiency. 

To be fair to Kerr, he did note Anthony’s shooting woes.  Here is Kerr’s defense of his choice for player of the game:

“He has clearly established himself as the Americans’ go-to player. He couldn’t buy a shot in the first half, shooting just 2-of-12, but Anthony buried five of seven attempts in the second half on his way to a game-high 19 points. Two big threes during the third-quarter run gave the U.S. the cushion it needed. Anthony’s defense – never a forte for him – was also critical. His steal and dunk midway through the third helped set the defensive tone as Team USA took over.”

Given Kerr’s argument, I might be convinced that Anthony should be considered the player of the third quarter.  Maybe even the player of the second half.  But the game includes the first half, and in the first half Anthony played quite badly.  When we factor in this first half performance, it is hard to see how he was player of the game. Anthony was not the only player to stumble against Germany. Here is what LeBron James did against Germany: 

LeBron’s Win Score = 13 + 5 + 1 + 2 + 0 – 10 – 7 – 0 – 1.5 = 2.5

King James played 25 minutes, so his Win Score per-minute was 0.100.  That is below average regardless of position played, so James did not have a good game.  Although James shot very well, when you commit seven turnovers, your overall productivity will suffer.  Now let’s look at the other captain, Dwyane Wade: 

Dwyane Wade’s Win Score = 3 + 7 + 1 + 2.5 + 0 – 11 – 2 – 1 – 1.5 = -2.0 

Obviously a negative number means Wade had a bad game.  Where did he falter?  Although he had seven rebounds – which is excellent for a guard – he took eleven shots and only made one.  Wade would have needed to grab twelve rebounds to overcome such a horrid shooting performance.   

Okay, if James, Wade, and Anthony were below average, how did Team USA win by 20?     

The key is the following Win Score: 18 + 12 + 0 + 0 + 1.5 – 7 – 0 – 3 – 4 = 19.5 

Which player had a Win Score of 19.5?  Actually it was two players – Dwight Howard and Chris Bosh.  These two players played a combined 24 minutes.  Combined their Win Score per minute was 0.813, while individually Howard’s was 0.900 and Bosh’s was 0.750.  Against Germany it was Howard and Bosh who lead Team USA in productivity. 

Beyond Bosh and Howard, only Chris Paul, Joe Johnson, and Antawn Jamison were above average in this game – and Jamison only played four minutes.   

In sum, most of Team USA faltered against Germany.  The team shot only 25% from beyond the arc, and when you take 40 of these shots, that level of efficiency is going to hurt.  But Team USA did hit the boards and forced Germany into 24 turnovers.  Consequently, because Team USA won the rebounding and turnover battles, its poor shooting was overcome. 

Now the team is two wins away from the gold medal.  Will our captains bounce back?  That is the question to ponder as Team USA takes on Greece tomorrow morning.  

– DJ

Posted in: Basketball Stories