The response to yesterday’s comment on Dikembe Mutombo has centered on the value of Tracy McGrady. People have noted that McGrady came back from injury just when Yao Ming was injured. So maybe it was McGrady that allowed the Rockets to stay afloat without Yao (or Ming, or Yao Ming – there has been some debate about what I am supposed to call him).
As always, let’s look at the numbers. After 27 games, just after Yao Ming was injured, I posted an analysis of the Rockets.
Table One: The Houston Rockets after 27 games
At this time, McGrady had a Wins Produced per 48 minutes [Wp48] of 0.159. Yesterday’s analysis of the Rockets after 61 games revealed that McGrady now has a WP48 of 0.191.
Table Two: The Houston Rockets after 61 games
With a bit of math, we can see that McGrady has posted a 0.211 WP48 since returning from injury. In other words, McGrady has played better.
To put this performance in perspective, let’s consider the productivity McGrady has offered throughout his career.
Table Three: Tracy McGrady’s Career
McGrady’s WP48 in 2005-06 was 0.157, or just about what he offered before his injury this year. His mark of 0.211 since the injury is consistent with what he posted in 2004-05 when he and Yao Ming led the Rockets to 51 wins.
One should note, though, that McGrady’s career WP48 stood at 0.254 entering this season. This means that although McGrady is playing better since his injury, he is not quite what he was most of the years he played for Orlando.
In sum, McGrady (who is very good) and Yao Ming (who is very good) led the Rockets to 51 victories two seasons ago. This year the Rockets are on pace for about the same record, but Yao Ming missed 32 games. How do we explain the ability of the Rockets to maintain their winning record? If it is McGrady, then we should see him playing at a much higher level than what we observed in 2004-05. That is not what we see in the data.
Consequently, I think I am sticking to my story. The return of Mutombo allowed the Rockets to survive the loss of Yao Ming.
Let me add one more point, though. Yao Ming does play more minutes than Mutombo. So per game, Yao Ming has produced 0.15 wins this season, while Mutombo only produces 0.14 victories. Hence, in that sense, Yao Ming is a bit more productive today (although Mutombo was clearly more productive when he was younger).
– DJ
Wages of Wins Journal 
Travis
March 9, 2007
Thanks for looking at this.
I am not sure that this does not make the assertion that it is more Mac than Deke wrong though. Certainly Deke’s play has been outstanding. But the fact that Yao went out at exactly (or within a game) of when T-Mac returned makes the analysis a bit difficult and statistically mingled. Wouldn’t Deke benefit in his Win stat by elevated T-Mac play? This is a chicken and egg game. Trust me, it starts with Mac. Watch a few games if you have any doubt.
dberri
March 9, 2007
Travis,
Look at Mutombo’s career numbers. He has generally been a very productive player, even when he did not have McGrady on his team.
That being said, McGrady is a very, very good player. Certainly the Rockets could not have maintained their record if he did not come back.
Travis
March 9, 2007
Agreed. This was fun. I’ll be back.
Bobbie
March 11, 2007
You’re not taking into consideration that Howard played way better — as did several other Rockets.
Bobbie
March 11, 2007
Oh — and the fact that the Rockets were lucky and played a lot of bad teams.
dberri
March 11, 2007
Bobbie,
Did you look at the numbers on Howard? If you look at his numbers after 27 games and then after 61 you will see that he actually played worse.
Paul
March 11, 2007
Or maybe the following happened : with the offense running through him more (since mutombo nevercould score) Mc Grady is playing better, thus the improved Rockets performance
Caleb
March 12, 2007
The numbers clearly show that Mutombo has been a productive replacement for Yao..
But I think this touches on a larger challenge for dberri… the validity of using an analysis of team statistics to create a rating of individual players. Obviously, the WOW method is valuable, but I believe it underestimates the need for basketball players to complement each others’ skills on the floor.
I am not talking about “intangibles.” If there is an effect, it will show up in statistics; I am only saying that WOW does not fully account for these team-to-team differences. (Not that I have a better method – think of me as the assignment editor).
Back to the Rockets. I think the Rockets are in better position to weather Yao’s injury because they have Tracy McGrady as a first-line offensive option.
As dberri has pointed out in other articles (and the book), there are diminishing returns when productive players are on the same team; each individual’s production (win score) goes down. Being lazy, I have no statistics to back this up, but I suspect this is more true when players have similar strengths (e.g. Anthony/Iverson) than when their strengths are different (Mutombo/McGrady).
Or look at this way: Yao and McGrady each produce most of their wins via efficient offense. The Rockets at full strength are therefore especially inefficient… whereas Mutombo produces his wins via rebounding (and blocks), giving McGrady the space (shots) to maximize his own wins produced.