In the seventh season of Seinfeld was an episode where George Costanza was angling to become the assistant general manager for the New York Yankees. This position was attractive because it would give Costanza the opportunity to help decide trades (the dream of so many).
In this episode Costanza says “I think I got it. How ’bout this? We trade Jim Leyritz and Bernie Williams, for Barry Bonds, huh? Whadda ya think?
That way you have Griffey and Bonds, in the same outfield! Now you got
a team! Ha ha ha.
Costanza never landed this gig with the Yankees. But someone very much like Costanza must have gotten a hold of the Celtics this past summer. After the Celtics missed out on a chance to draft either Greg Oden or Kevin Durant, someone – much like Costanza — must have approached Danny Ainge (general manager of the Celtics) and said “I think I got it. How ‘bout this? We trade the #5 pick in the draft, along with players we don’t want, for Ray Allen. Then we trade Al Jefferson, and another collection of players we don’t want, for Kevin Garnett. Whadda ya think? That way we have Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, and Kevin Garnett in the same line-up! Now you got a team! Ha ha ha.
As silly as all this sounds, this is what the Celtics did. “Costanza” and Ainge managed to take the #5 pick in the draft and Al Jefferson – the only two assets the team had that anyone might want – and turn these into Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett.
After channeling a 19th century Italian economist last week I was able to project that the Celtics should be pretty good after these two moves in 2007-08.
How about the Timberwolves? (I will get to the Sonics soon).
Looking back at o5-06 and 06-07
Last year the T-Wolves won 32 games. The year before the team won 33 contests. When we look at Wins Produced we see a bit bigger step back.
Table One: The Minnesota Timberwolves in 05-06 and 06-07
The summation of Wins Produced for Minnesota in 2005-06 came to 36.0 victories. In 2006-07 this summation came to 31.4. Much of this decline can be traced to Kevin Garnett. Two years ago he led the league in Wins Produced – with 26.5 wins — and Wins Produced per 48 minutes [WP48], with a mark of 0.430. This past years KG declined to 20.6 wins and a WP48 of 0.330. Relative to every other NBA player not named Jason Kidd, Garnett was incredible in 2006-07. Relative to the KG we saw across the past few years, he was not quite as good.
Of course, as noted in Speeding up Time for Bill Simmons, Garnett has not had much of a supporting cast in Minnesota. So even if he had been his usual self, the Timberwolves would have still missed the playoffs.
Obviously Minnesota can miss the playoffs without KG as well. And that is the path they appear to have chosen.
How much worse off are the T-Wolves without Garnett?
The surprising answer is “not much”. Last year Al Jefferson had a WP48 of 0.252. Had Jefferson played 2,995 minutes like Garnett, Jefferson would have produced 15.8 wins last year, or only five wins less than KG. If we couple Jefferson with Garnett’s supporting cast – easily the worst in the league – Jefferson and the T-Wolves would be expected to win between 26 and 27 games.
A bit of improvement on the part of the Jefferson – who desperately needs a nickname – or his supporting cast and you can easily see Minnesota winning 32 games next year.
So did “Costanza” and Ainge really rip off McHale? If the goal is to build a 20 to 30 win team in Minnesota that has no hope of competing for a title, and to do this cheaply, then the Garnett trade keeps McHale and the T-Wolves right on target.
Of course if the objective is to be a title contender, then it would have been easier to do this with Garnett. At least, this would have been easier a few years ago.
But we can’t go back in time. The real problem with the Garnett trade from the T-Wolves perspective is not that they are really that much worse off, it’s that this move marks the end of an era. With a player like Garnett the Timberwolves should have been consistent contenders for a title. Again, as noted in the Super-Star column, the hard part in building a champion – which requires the right combination of stars and complementary players – is finding the Star (or stars). Minnesota had the Star, all they needed was the complementary pieces.
Now Minnesota is back to square one without a true star (unless Jefferson gets a bit better) or the necessary role players. Which puts them in the same position as many other NBA teams – out of playoff contention and clearly able to make vacation plans for May.
– DJ
Sam Cohen
August 7, 2007
Jefferson has a nickname: “Big Al”. Not terribly original, but that’s what people in Boston have been calling him.
dberri
August 7, 2007
Your right, that isn’t too original. I figured that was his nickname, but Basketball-Reference didn’t report any.
perkisabeast
August 7, 2007
Hey, we’re a Boston based web site, so here’s the straight sope on the guys you got…
You’re going to love Big Al, he’s the real deal. Gomes is solid. Green is maddening, seriously. He doesn’t run hard, despite his amazing athleticism. He plays great defense for 23 seconds then makes a stupid foul. He’ll be lights out and then stone cold. However, he is the best layup line dunker of all time. Telfair is surprisingly straight forward in terms of point guard skills, which is kind of sad considering “Through the fire” almost made me crap myself with his arsenal of disgusting passes and moves. Basically I think those don’t exist in his game. He just sort of dissapears in games too. I think you’ll find him akin to Marcus Banks. Sorry. Ratliff is Ratliff, if he’s healthy he’s good. If he’s not, he’s useless.
Adam F
August 7, 2007
Great Seinfeld episode by the way; When Steinbrenner visits George’s parents to announce George’s “death” and all Frank says is “What the hell did you trade Jay Buhner for?”
Seriously though, I’ve always been somewhat skeptical of advanced statistics in basketball (as opposed to baseball), but i really enjoy your work.
Jed
August 7, 2007
Hi DJ,
I just saw on ESPN that the Celtics signed Scott Pollard to a one-year deal. I don’t get why they would waste what little cap space they have on this guy–he can’t shoot, rebound, or defend from what I can tell. And it looks like his WP48 last year was a miserable -.038 (jasonchandler.com), which suggests the Celtics are actually _losing_ games when they play him… Can the team really not do better than this, even with the limited supply of bigs?
I’m pulling for KG–no matter if he’s “only” been averaging a mortal .330 WP48–to make some waves out East this year, so I really hope this is not indicative of the caliber of players Boston is planning to surround the Big 3 with. A few days ago, I read rumors of talks about acquiring Mutumbo, which makes this terrible pick-up even harder to swallow.
Any insights or words of comfort?
dberri
August 7, 2007
Jed,
Scott Pollard, when he has played, has generally been quite productive. So do not despair.
ehoo15
August 8, 2007
Jefferson does have a nickname; it’s Big Al
Carl Spacklet
August 8, 2007
“The Jefferson” does have a nickname and its not “Big Al”, its “The Jefferson” not to be confused with George or Weazie. Courtesy of the Beast Lair at Perk is a Beast.
MT
August 8, 2007
Another good column Dave. Agree with you and with perkisabeast’s eval of the talent MN received. If you NPV the wins to be produced by both KG and Big Al for the rest of their careers plus the wins that might be produced by the draft picks that MN got in the swap, MN did OK for themselves.
The Jefferson
August 10, 2007
I am sure-fire, first ballot induction to the inter-planetary Hall of Fame!