At times it appears Kevin Durant’s path to the Rookie of the Year award is as clear as Raul Castro’s ascent to the presidency of Cuba. Despite questions about qualifications, it’s hard seeing much of an opposition campaign building between now and the RoY election.
Currently Durant has a WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes] in the negative range. And this level of productivity has been observed the entire season. If he is elected RoY, that can mean that either
a. this is one of the worst rookie classes in the history of the NBA.
b. voters are overly impressed by scoring totals.
Looking over the performance of various rookies, it’s hard to see how (a) could be true. Al Horford and Joakim Noah are just two rookies who have been above average performers this year.
The Florida graduates, though, are not the only outstanding rookies. Over the past few months another player has managed to eclipse – on a per-minute basis – both Horford and Noah.
Houston Solves a Problem
On January 9th the Houston Rockets had a record of 19-17. For a team some considered a candidate to contend for a title in 2008, the first half of this season was a disappointment.
The next game, though, Carl Landry – who had only played 17 minutes all season – was given 20 minutes of playing time. In this time he grabbed 11 rebounds and hit all seven of his shots. Not surprisingly, the Rockets won. The next two games, though, saw Landry glued to the bench for all but 12 minutes. In each game, Houston lost.
After those two losses, though, Landry became a frequent guest in the Rockets rotation. Counting Sunday’s game, the Rockets have won 16 of their last 17 games. In these games Landry has averaged more than 18 minutes of playing time. And with a WP48 of 0.308 for the season (prior to Sunday’s game), it’s not a surprise that the Rockets are suddenly successful.
Who is Carl Landry?
Landry is a 6ft. 7in. forward from Purdue University. Prior to the draft, ESPN.com ranked Landry as the 63rd best available prospect. Since the first and second rounds do not have that many slots, Landry was not considered a player who was likely to hear his name called.
Despite this ranking, Landry was selected by the Seattle Supersonics with the first pick of the second round in the 2007 NBA Draft. He was then traded to the Houston Rockets for cash and a future second round pick. Although his height suggests small forward, the Rockets have primarily played him at power forward. And his performance – relative to the other rookie power forwards – suggests the Rockets cash has purchased one of the best buys of the 2007 draft.
The First Round Power Forwards
Table One reports how Landry compares – across a variety of statistics – to the power forwards selected in the first round of the draft.
Table One: The Rookie Power Forwards
Before we get to Landry, let’s start with the power forwards who have disappointed. When we look at the individual statistics we see that Yi Jianlian (the 6th choice), Al Thornton (14th pick), and Jason Smith (the 20th choice) have been not produced much. Yi is only above average with respect to free throw shooting, blocked shots, and assists. Thornton is good at taking shots, but with the exception of free throws, not good at getting shots to go in. He’s also below average with respect to every other aspect of the game. And then there’s Smith, who is below average at everything except blocked shots and personal fouls. Not only are these three players well below average, they also rank in the top four in our sample in minutes per game. In other words, the least productive rookie power forwards are playing the most minutes. And not surprisingly, all three play for losing teams.
Smith’s team – the Philadelphia 76ers – is only losers by a little bit. The team’s efficiency differential – offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency – is -0.4. In other words, this team is quite close to being average. One reason for this is the play of Thaddeus Young, the Sixers other rookie big man. Young is an above average scorer. He’s also good at getting steals. Although he’s slightly below average on the boards, the overall picture is above par.
Young is certainly having a good rookie campaign. But his performance, on a per-minute basis, lags behind Brandan Wright. Wright is above average as a scorer and a rebounder. At least, the early returns suggest this is the case. But when a player has only played 155 minutes, it’s hard to be sure.
Back to Landry
When we look at Win Score per 48 minutes, it appears that Wright and Young are the leading power forwards. But both players fall short of the standard set by Landry. In this sample, Landry is the best at shooting, scoring, and rebounding. Not surprisingly, he also leads in Win Score and WP48. Yes, the first choice in the second round is so far out performing all the players at his position taken in the first round.
And this brings us to the moral of this tale. Over the past few weeks we have seen rebuilding teams trade established players for first round draft choices. But as this story highlights, first round draft choices are not always more productive than the cheaper second round selections. And consequently one has to wonder what the Sonics, Grizzlies, and Nets received for the talent they surrendered. Certainly the very top choices in the first round tend to perform at a high level. But once you move past the first few picks we see a great deal of variation in performance. Young and Wright are currently offering more than Yi. Jared Dudley has outperformed Smith and Thornton. And Landry is giving more than all these players.
Yes, Landry’s performance is a surprise. Certainly his college numbers didn’t suggest he could play this well. But the fact that so many first round draft choices struggle suggests that trading a star for a collection of low first round talent may not be a bright idea. You may be just as well off trading for second round choices. These are certainly cheaper. Of course telling your fans that you traded Pau Gasol for a few second round choices could be a publication relations nightmare. Then again, giving a guaranteed contract to a player who can’t produce isn’t going to win you any elections either. Well, not unless your franchise is in Cuba.
– DJ
Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.
The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score
Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:
Simple Models of Player Performance
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.
sometimes
February 25, 2008
“Certainly his college numbers didn’t suggest he could play this well.”
Wha??? He was one of the best players in the big ten during his jr and sr seasons at Purdue! He pretty much carried the team on his back on the way to the NCAA tourney during his senior season. He also outscored Greg Oden during their matchups! He wasn’t a guy who was plastered all over SI and espn, but everybody in big ten country knew he was good (I mean unless they are doubling a guy nowadays b/c he sucks).
Animal
February 25, 2008
Landry’s performance is a surprise. Certainly his college numbers didn’t suggest he could play this well.
In his junior year Landry shot 62% from the field, averaging 18 point and 7 rebounds per game. His pawsmin was 0.3!!
http://sports.yahoo.com/ncaab/players/37801
win score = Points + Rebounds + Steals + ½Assists + ½Blocked Shots – Field Goal Attempts – Turnovers – ½Free Throw Attempts – ½Personal Fouls = 18.2 + 7.1 + 1 + 0.5*1+0.5*1 – 10 – 3 – 0.5*8 – 0.5* 3 = 9 And he played 30 mins per game so 0.3 pawsmin
Where’s Erich Doerr when we need him?
Animal
February 25, 2008
Carl Landry made 62% of his shots his junior year of college and now he makes exactly 62% of his shots in his rookie NBA season.
He is averaging 5 rebounds per game in NBA in 15 minutes played. In college he had 7 rebounds in 30 minutes so he has increased his rebounding.
http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/teams/hou/stats
Charles Follymacher
February 25, 2008
dammit, dave you’re makin it much harder for me to snag him in my fantasy league (i was on the verge of getting the deal done, now alluva sudden the other GM is getting a flood of offers).
btw, isn’t Jared Dudley playing small forward now?
Westy
February 25, 2008
Out of curiosity, whose minutes is Landry usually replacing?
grungedave
February 25, 2008
No mention of Luis Scola in the rookie power forward discussion? (even though he wasn’t drafted this year)
The Scola/Landry combination is awesome by the way. How we kept Chuck Hayes active for so long is baffling.
dberri
February 25, 2008
grungedave,
I forgot about Scola. I was just comparing Landry to the power forwards taken in the first round.
Charles,
Sorry to ruin your fantasy league. From 82games.com it looks like Dudley has played the majority of his minutes at PF. I think he belongs at SF, though.
KC
February 25, 2008
We will soon find out how good Brandan Wright really is. With Biedrins down for the count, his minutes have gone up.
Nellie is still an old school Celtic at heart — which means rookies are meant to sit and wait. I think Brandan has been on ice long enough. I want to see his game now!
Karl
February 25, 2008
ya still got his height wrong. He’s 6’9″ in shoes. Sheesh, can’t anyone get this right?
MarkT
February 25, 2008
I think Thaddeus Young is more of a 3 and you left out Sean Williams who is more of a 4 than a 5.
Clutch City Phil
February 25, 2008
The emergence of the Landry-Scola PF duo was the biggest reason that the Rox were comfortable trading away Bonzi Wells.
GV
February 25, 2008
I’ve been leaving comments about Carl Landry on this blog for a while now. Landrey is the real deal. He puts up great numbers and is exciting to watch.
It’s also a bit misleading to say he takes away minutes from Scola. When Yao needs a breather now, Scola will often slide over to the 5 and Landry will play the 4. That accounts for 5 or so of their minutes on the floor.
GV
February 25, 2008
I also meant to add that Landry suffered a bad knee injury during his second year in college, so he was not at 100% his third year when he averaged only 7 rebounds per 30 minutes. According to Landry, it was only recently that he fully recovered. He also claims to have added 4 or 5 inches to his vertical (!) in his time with the Rockets.
Travis
February 26, 2008
As a Purdue fan, I can agree that Landry is the real deal when he’s giving consistent minutes. He’s extremely efficient. I can also vouch that the kid’s vertical’s certainly gone up. I didn’t see any of those double pump jams in his time at Mackey Arena.
Tom Mandel
February 27, 2008
Glen Davis is not in the mix here? Well, he was a 2d rounder (like Landry).
Note that like Landry he was also chosen by the Sonics! Another productive second rounder they gave away.
Gareth Lewin
March 25, 2008
I’m probably blind, but I can’t find a way to contact you directly. And since I don’t want to go off-topic I’m posting this on the last Durant relevant post I can find.
Do you think Durant (or someone coaching him) has been reading your stuff?
http://www.enjoytheenjoyment.com/2008/03/dont-look-now-but-kevin-durants-playing.html
My favorite quote is
“You wouldn’t think less shots would lead to more points, but it has for Durant. He’s averaged 21.1 points this month, his best month yet. “
dberri
March 25, 2008
Gareth,
I doubt anyone is reading my stuff from the Sonics. But if they are, I gave them something else to read tonight.