Tis the season for small samples in the NBA. With the 2008-09 campaign less than a week old, there doesn’t seem much for those who analyze numbers to discuss. In general, small samples just don’t say anything useful. There is one small sample, though, that might be an exception. At least, this sample is quite consistent with a story — based on better data — told last August about the San Antonio Spurs.
Sports Illustrated picked the San Antonio Spurs to win the 2009 NBA Championship. The recent history of this franchise explains the pick. In 1999, 2003, 2005, and 2007 the Spurs won the title. Clearly this pattern – where the Spurs get to win in odd numbered years — suggests that a championship parade should be scheduled for San Antonio next summer.
After the first two games in the 2008-09 season, though, it looks like there are problems in San Antonio. The Spurs are one of only four teams without a win. And the remaining winless teams – the Kings, Clippers, and Wizards – are not considered championship contenders. So rather than taking residence in the NBA’s penthouse, the Spurs appear to be moving closer to the cellar-dwellers.
Of course, it’s just two games. And San Antonio only lost these two games by just six points. But unfortunately for fans of this team, the outcome of these two contests are consistent with the larger story of this franchise.
To see this, let’s review where this team was when it won in 2007 and how it performed last season.
Table One: The San Antonio Spurs in 2005-06 and 2006-07
Table Two: The San Antonio Spurs in 2007-08
As Table One indicates (these first two tables were originally posted last August), the 2007 NBA champions were led by Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, Tony Parker, and Brent Barry. This quartet produced 82% of the team’s regular season wins in 2006-07. Last season, Barry – due to injury – played considerably less. And as I noted last summer (and as Table Two indicates), this caused the Spurs to slip.
In the off-season, Barry finally left this team for good. In addition, Ginobili had surgery on his ankle and will now miss a substantial chunk of this season. This means that the quartet that led the Spurs to the 2007 title is currently just a dynamic duo. And as Table Three indicates, this is probably not enough for this team to contend for a title in 2009.
Table Three: Playing What-If with the Spurs in 2008-09
Table Three presents two scenarios for the Spurs. The first scenario just takes the allocation of minutes we saw in the first two games, and then projects the team’s wins given how these players performed last season (for Desmon Farmer I just took what he did two years ago). As one can see, the Spurs without Ginobili – and Fabricio Oberto – should expect to win about 43 games. And that’s with Tim Duncan and Tony Parker playing more than 3,000 minutes each (an allocation of minutes that I don’t think can continue).
Now Oberto is only supposed to be out a short time. And Ginobili might be back in December. Let’s say that Oberto comes back and plays about as many minutes as he did last year. Furthermore, let’s have Ginobili play about 75% of the minutes he played in 2007-08 (with Roger Mason getting the rest of his time). If that happens, the Spurs might reach 50 wins.
Certainly a 50 win season is respectable. But in a conference with the LA Lakers, New Orleans Hornets, Utah Jazz, Dallas Mavericks, and Houston Rockets; 50 wins is probably not going to be good enough to get home court advantage in the first round. This means the Spurs would by trying to win an NBA title without having the home court advantage once. Although I think the Houston Rockets managed to pull this off in 1995, I doubt a team could do this in the Western Conference today. In sum, I think the Spurs championship dreams in 2009 are sunk.
And when we consider the age of Duncan and Ginobili, I don’t see the Spurs – as the team is currently assembled — rising to the very top of the NBA soon. In other words, I think San Antonio might just stay sunk.
The first two games of this season are certainly consistent with this narrative. The Spurs faced two teams who are also not championship contenders, and lost to both. Although I expect the Spurs to be about a 0.500 team without Ginobili, I don’t see this team contending for a title in 2009. In other words, apparently you need more than the odd pattern of winning in odd-numbered years to win a championship. You actually need your most productive players to appear on the court for most of the season. And if this doesn’t happen, you probably don’t get to win a title.
– DJ
The WoW Journal Comments Policy
Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.
The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score
Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:
Simple Models of Player Performance
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.
Wages of Wins Journal 
John W. Davis
November 3, 2008
Charlotte Bobcats guard Shannon Brown had a simple, yet stark, question for one of his coaches a couple of weeks ago:
Why don’t you like me?
Brown now says he was joking, but assistant coach Dave Hanners had a serious reply. He liked Brown just fine. It was Brown’s game Hanners didn’t like.
“I said Coach (Larry Brown) is asking you to do certain things, and you’re not doing them,” Hanners recalled. “Most guys are misguided about how to do well. They think, ‘If I score 15 or 18 points, Coach has to play me!’
“We have Jason Richardson and Adam Morrison and a whole lot of guys who can make shots. We need Shannon to do something else to help.”
Apparently that registered, explaining how Brown slipped into the rotation Saturday. He played 13 minutes of solid defense, mostly on Miami Heat star Dwyane Wade (5-of-15 from the field), in the Bobcats’ first victory this season.
Check the full story here:
http://www.charlotteobserver.com/sports/story/296078.html
John W. Davis
November 3, 2008
Oh yeah and the Spurs not so elite. One injury and they are, how do I say, not good.
stephanie
November 3, 2008
It seems any model like this would be a little iffy in a conference which is extremely competitive. You may look at each individual team and say oh, they should get X wins. But if each team is stacked then there may not be enough wins to go around despite what their players are producing. Is there any accounting for this or is it not that big an issue?
Daniel
November 3, 2008
Any team that loses its best player for three months will be “not good”.
The Spurs do have the best offense in the NBA after two games. Their offensive efficiency is significantly higher than the #2 team as well. Having Parker and Duncan taking most shots, with a high number of 3-point attempts will put the Spurs in some very high scoring and entertaining games. The first two games of the season were great– even the announcers were commenting on what exciting games were being played.
Dave
November 3, 2008
The Spurs supporting cast is too weak to win a title. Pity because their three best players are still dominant.
They are good enough to play the role of the party spoiler, the team that knocks of an elite squad. They just won’t be able to keep it up for four rounds.
stephanie
November 3, 2008
Imagine if the Spurs had Scola. Ouch.
ESPN’s ticker is saying that AI for Billups is “expected” to go through. That would be…interesting.
John W. Davis
November 3, 2008
Prof D!
Save me now!
Iverson from Billups, McDyess and Samb.
This is crazy!
Joe
November 3, 2008
Bad trade for Detroit.
stephanie
November 3, 2008
Maybe Dumars figures Detroit can’t beat the Celtics or Cavs in the playoffs now so they went for AI’s contract which expires just in time to nab…Bosh? LeBron? Wade? Amare? Could end up being a genius move.
Tball
November 3, 2008
Making trades for cap space is a lousy gamble. What happens in two years when New York, New Jersey/Brooklyn, Miami, and Detroit have cap space? Does LeBron really choose Detroit over any of those places? To play next to who? Wallace and Hamilton will be done by then. Nothing against Detroit, but there are plenty of places with more media, better weather, and quality prospective teammates. There will be some very disappointed teams three years from now that shuttled away talented players for cap space only to come away with unneeded cap space.
Vince Gagliano
November 3, 2008
Yeah, Iverson’s contract expires in July.
There aren’t going to be very many desirable free-agents to pick from in the offseason, especially not from the draft class of ’06. Tyrus Thomas? J.J. Redick? Andrea Bargnani?? Please.
They’re looking ahead to the class of ’10. Not to mention, if their wins production will be hurt by the trade, it will come with the silver lining of a higher draft position over the next two offseasons. If they do well enough in the draft, their free agency signing could push them over the top yet again.
If it doesn’t? We could have Otis Thorpe for Darko Milicic all over again.
Pat
November 3, 2008
See, its not only the bulls that get way overvalued point guards.
I’m sorry for your loss DJ =P.
This is an a atrocity of a trade for your Pistons. Losing Wallace a while back hurt the Pistons a little bit, but now they’ve lost their two best players from their championship team.
Pat
November 3, 2008
When the Pistons likely flop this will be just one of the many examples, like you have painstakingly shown, of the NBA way overvaluing scoring.
Vince Gagliano
November 3, 2008
How about this for irony? The Philadelphia 76ers, Iverson’s old team, could end up being the biggest challenger to Boston for Eastern supremacy if the Pistons sink.
Not to mention, Andrew Bynum, the player the Los Angeles Lakers looked forward to getting back the most, has been relatively quiet over LA’s first three games. But Pau Gasol, with the move to power forward, could enjoy the best season (Both statistically and professionally) of his career.
Jacob Rosen
November 3, 2008
I know how much Dave loves to write about AI…
I can’t wait to see how this will eventually play out. One would thing that in the short-run, the Pistons chemistry will not be be too great without their team leader for all these years. They should probably fall back enough during this season to enable both the Cavaliers nad 76ers to catch them in terms of the Eastern Conference Standings.
I also want to caution everyone on the LeBron to anywhere rumors. First of all, New Jersey is having problems moving to Brooklyn and why in the world would LeBron want to move to New Jersey to play for a bad team when Cleveland with Mo Williams is starting to build something? I don’t think Detroit has a chance at landing him, some of the other names are distinct possibilities, but it seems odd that they would throw this year away…
James
November 3, 2008
Did the commentator above me say the biggest threat to Boston was the 76ers? Ridiculous, The Cavaliers and the Raptors have a far better chance at besting the the Celtics.
TRad
November 3, 2008
So from Pistons POV it’s both freeing cap space and improbing short term chances (OK, they might be wrong, but that is how they see it).
But what to think about Nuggets? First they gave up Camby for peanuts, now they are giving up ending contract for two aging players with multiyear ones. What the heck?
John W. Davis
November 3, 2008
I dont think the Pistons are going to play typical Point Guard oriented basketball this season.
Its just gonna be throwing five guys out there and just trying to get it done.
*The cap mobility in 2009 and 2010 is the key!
Pat
November 3, 2008
[quote]But what to think about Nuggets? First they gave up Camby for peanuts, now they are giving up ending contract for two aging players with multiyear ones. What the heck? [/quote]
I suppose they assume (and from a quick glance they probably will be right) this will improve their team short term and they will worry about the long term later.
Imagine how great of a position they would be in if they were smart enough to hold onto Camby. I imagine this maybe enough to eliminate the loss of Marcus Camby, but not much else.
At least they followed up an insanely stupid move with a pretty suave one.
Evan
November 3, 2008
Imagine how good the Nuggets would be if they’d kept Camby and traded for Billups. That’d be a pretty good team.
Collin
November 3, 2008
I was a little disappointed the article made no mention that the Spurs will be playing with a totally different front court as soon as the next few games.
Now, I’m not saying Mahinmi or Tolliver will guarantee a title. Actually, far from it. But depending on Matt Bonner to get rebounds and spread the floor is a liability the Spurs won’t have to contend with in the near future. That alone should make them more competitive.
I think it’s too early to write-off the Spurs. But, I don’t blame anyone that is. The most telling symptom of Spurs slippage has nothing to do with Berri’s formulas, it’s that Pop subbed Udoka in for Bowen at the end of the Blazers game. If Bowen can’t defend Brandon Roy, then what hope does the team have for containing the more seasoned superstars in the league?
Jason J
November 3, 2008
Interesting article DB. Not surprising that losing the creative center of the offense and best clutch performer as well as their starting center projects for a pretty significant drop in the standings for old reliable San An.
I actually like this deal for the Pistons and Nuggets. JR Smith and Allen Iverson competed for minutes and shots, and AI next to Carter was a miniscule back court. Chauncey adds a pure pg who can defend and opens up tons of shots for Smith and Melo. If they keep Dyess, he’ll go a long way towards bolstering their anemic big man rotation.
AI to the Pistons is not as bad as it sounds at first. It hurts the d without a doubt, and I’m not sure he and Stuckey can work together very well, but Hamilton, Sheed, and Prince are about to be wide open for their patented jumpers, and Maxiel is going to have tons of room to clean the offensive glass as Iverson draws his man to cover penetrations.
And let’s face it. The Pistons were probably not going to be able to win it all as presently constructed. With all the expiring deals it gives the Pistons room for a couple huge moves in the 2010 free agent bananza. Joe D = one helluva GM.
Aaron
November 3, 2008
You cant just predict an entire season off of two games. Lets see we are missing our leading scorer, best bench player, starting center, second string point guard, second string power forward, third string small forward (anthony tolliver) who I think is going to be huge for the Spurs. So lets not judge too quickly off of two games we barely lost to highly respectable teams. Remember Dallas two years ago and their horrible start they ended up in the finals. GO SPURS GO!
Layne
November 3, 2008
Pitiful article. Why wait to write this two games into the season when you obviously had the pre-conceived notion that the Spurs are “too old” and “too injured” mentality? The west is always competitive and home court isn’t the end all for an experienced team. You’re sleeping on Roger Mason Jr and other role players while also forgetting factors for other contenders. Houston has to keep Artest stable, Dallas has to play defense eventually and Utah has to worry about whether or not Boozer plans to stay with the team past this season. But hey, if you want to write off 4 championships after what you see in two games, go ahead. Can’t believe you’re getting paid for it though.
Daniel
November 4, 2008
The reason the Spurs lost the Portland game is because they were so shorthanded in the frontcourt and the Blazers’ players are so long. Udoka was playing the 4 for stretches of the game, which is a bad thing since he’s 6’5″ with short arms. The Blazers got 13 offensive rebounds, recorded 11 steals, and only turned the ball over 6 times. And they only won the game by one. If Oberto had been playing, the Spurs would have won by at least double figures, but the rebounding disparity and turnover issues caused by having such small players facing up against the Blazers made a Blazers’ victory a virtual certainty.
ilikeflowers
November 4, 2008
Make sure to stop back by at the end of the season Layne.