Two years ago I placed third in the TrueHoop Stat Geek Smackdown. As I noted when the final results were announced, Justin Kubatko and I based our picks solely on the numbers. The difference was that I only considered the quality of the teams (as measured by efficiency differential). Kubatko considered both team quality and home-court advantage. The different approaches did not matter most of the time. But in one playoff series it proved decisive.
Last year I was in the midst of my move from California to Utah. So I had to sit on the sidelines as Kubatko took his second title. Now that my family and I are settled into our new home in Utah I can once again participate in this contest (Kubatko, though, will not be participating).
Once again, here is my methodology. For the most part I am considering two pieces of information:
- Efficiency Differential or Offensive Efficiency minus Defensive Efficiency.
- Home-court advantage.
In general, efficiency differential is all you need to know in choosing the favorite. But if the teams are close, home-court advantage can make a difference.
With my approach outlined, let me briefly comment on each series in the first round.
We will start with the Eastern Conference.
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Detroit Pistons
Cleveland’s Efficiency Differential: 9.74
Detroit’s Efficiency Differential: -0.54
Comments: I was born in Detroit so I will be rooting for the Pistons. But the numbers say the Pistons have no chance. The loss of Chauncey Billups at the beginning of the season essentially doomed the Pistons.
Pick: Cleveland over Detroit (4-0)
Boston Celtics vs. Chicago Bulls
Boston’s Efficiency Differential: 8.02
Chicago’s Efficiency Differential: -0.29
Comments: The loss of Kevin Garnett makes it unlikely the Celtics will repeat as NBA champions. But Rajon Rondo, Ray Allen, Paul Pierce, Kendrick Perkins, and Leon Powe should be enough to defeat the Chicago Bulls. Although I would note, the addition of Brad Miller does make Chicago more competitive.
Pick: Boston over Chicago (4-1)
Orlando Magic vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Orlando’s Efficiency Differential: 7.08
Philadelphia’s Efficiency Differential: 0.08
Comments: With KG hurt, Orlando is now the primary threat to the LeBron’s drive to return to the NBA Finals. Philadelphia does not look like a team that is going to stop Orlando from advancing.
Pick: Orlando over Philadelphia (4-0)
Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat
Atlanta’s Efficiency Differential: 1.70
Miami’s Efficiency Differential: 0.27
Comments: This is the closest match-up in the first round in the Eastern Conference. The best player in the series is Dwyane Wade (21.3 Wins Produced). But Wade doesn’t have much help. So the Hawks – led by Al Horford and Mike Bibby – should take the series.
Pick: Atlanta over Miami (4-3)
LA Lakers vs. Utah Jazz
LA Lakers’ Efficiency Differential: 7.83
Utah’s Efficiency Differential: 2.71
Comments: The Jazz finished the season very poorly. Playoff picks, though, are based on the entire season. Unfortunately, even when you look at the entire season — and take into account Utah’s injury problems — the Lakers are still the favorites in this series.
Pick: Lakers over Utah (4-1)
Denver Nuggets vs. New Orleans Hornets
Denver’s Efficiency Differential: 3.51
New Orleans’ Efficiency Differential: 1.71
Comments: New Orleans actually had the 9th best differential in the Western Conference. So if efficiency differential was used to pick the playoff teams, Phoenix would be in and New Orleans would be at home. The Hornets do have the most productive player in the game. Chris Paul produced 29.5 wins and posted a 0.471 WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes]. As noted last January, Paul’s numbers remind us of Magic Johnson. Paul, though, doesn’t have the help Magic had with the Lakers in the 1980s. In fact, with Tyson Chandler’s decline this year, there really is no other outstanding player on this team once you get past Paul. Consequently, Denver should be favored.
Pick: Denver over New Orleans (4-3)
San Antonio Spurs vs. Dallas Mavericks
San Antonio’s Efficiency Differential: 4.10
Dallas’ Efficiency Differential: 2.09
Comments: This is the hardest series to call. The Spurs lost Manu Ginobili towards the end of the season. So San Antonio’s efficiency differential is misleading. Without Ginobili I am not sure San Antonio would have made the playoffs. Furthermore, when we look at Dallas we see a team that underachieved. More specifically, Dirk Nowitzki and Josh Howard underachieved. Had Nowitzki and Howard played as they did last year the Mavericks would have challenged the Lakers this year. Although I should ignore what a team did recently (I think the entire season is more important), I am going to use what Dallas did across the last few games of the season to add further justification for my pick.
Dallas over San Antonio (4-2)
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Houston Rockets
Portland’s Efficiency Differential: 5.93
Houston’s Efficiency Differential: 4.27
Comments: In terms of efficiency differential, the Rockets finished as the sixth best team in the NBA and the third best team in the Western Conference. Normally this means a team should at least advance to the second round. But the Rockets have drawn the fifth best team in the NBA and the second best team in the Western Conference. This means the Rockets are once again unlikely to make it out of the first round (the same story we have seen since 1997).
Pick: Portland over Houston (4-3)
So those are my picks. If my picks are correct, then the second round should go as follows:
- Cleveland over Atlanta
- Orlando over Boston
- LA Lakers over Portland
- Denver over Dallas (well, maybe not)
The conference finals should be won by the Cavaliers and Lakers. And then the NBA champion should be….well, I am not sure. At least I don’t have to be sure right now.
In other words, I am only committed to my first round picks for the Smackdown. Once the first round is over I will be back to officially pick the winners in round two (and eventually offer a pick for NBA champion).
– DJ
The WoW Journal Comments Policy
Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.
The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score
Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:
Simple Models of Player Performance
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.
Wages of Wins Journal 
TRad
April 17, 2009
For the record, my picks (and I did them yesterday):
Lakers in 5
Denver in 5
Dallas in 6
Portland in 7
Cleveland in 4
Boston in 7
Orlando in 5
Atlanta in 7
Well, obviously I used the efficiencies+HCA model too.
The biggest difference: I think you underestimate Garnett’s value. According to Hollinger’s team stats Boston’s margin of win in the last 25% of the season (which they play without Garnett) was only 1.9. Chicago’s – 3.7. Powe is an OK backup, but without Garnett Celtics have to give more minutes to Davis (ugh) and Moore (ugh^2).
I think it will be much closer that we could expect. With HCA Celtics should prevail, but only just.
matthew ross
April 17, 2009
Hi there,
I have a client, BetOnline.com, that has put out some interesting odds on some of the NBA playoff teams, that we believe your readers would find quite fun and interesting to know.
They have some middle-of-the-pack teams like the Heat listed at an astounding 55 to 1 to win the East and 95 to 1 to win the NBA title. But they also have some of these fun and interesting props, such as:
WHICH MIAMI TEAM WILL HAVE MORE 2009 WINS?
HEAT IN PLAYOFFS 1.6 to 1
DOLPHINS IN REG. SEASON 1 to 2
WHAT DENVER TEAM WILL HAVE MORE 2009 WINS?
NUGGETS IN PLAYOFFS 1 to 1.4
BRONCOS IN REG. SEASON 1.1 to 1
If you would like to get a complete list of their odds for each conference and the championship, simply let me know and I can send them right along.
Sincerely,
Matthew Ross
Peter
April 19, 2009
Dave, you’re not necessarily up the creek without a paddle when it comes time to pick a champion.
Since the Finals teams play anywhere from 12 to 21 games leading up to the championship round, why not try and analyze the efficiency differential of each team to help you make your choice?
First off, it’s a significant enough chunk of games to make a somewhat reliable sample. And second, it takes into account factors that come into play in the postseason more so than in the regular season.
For example, using those numbers to analyze the Celtics would provide data for a team that has been playing without Garnett, while studying the Lakers would provide a sample where Andrew Bynum is healthy.
The postseason data isn’t a substitute for the regular season data, but it is a complement.
Reid
April 23, 2009
I’m curious if you think the Nuggets would be competing with the Lakers and Cavs as a true title contender if they had been able to convince Antonio McDyess to stay in Denver. McDyess is a reasonably productive player according to your metrics, while the Nuggets have dedicated lots of minutes at the power forward position to Kenyon Martin and Linas Kleiza, two fairly unproductive players by WP48 measures. Clearly I wouldn’t go so far as to assume a direct replacement of Martin and Kleiza (McDyess probably would have eaten some of the Birdman’s very productive minutes), but it seems pretty obvious Denver would be significantly better with him. Would they be title contender good?
Antonio McDyess Performance
Season Minutes WP48
2006-07 1,729 .197
2007-08 2,285 .172
2008-09 (First Half) .277 524
Kenyon Martin Performance
Season Minutes WP48
2006-07 62 -.082
2007-08 2159 .058
2008-09 (First Half) 1242 .063
Linas Kleiza Performance
Season Minutes WP48
2006-07 1,489 -0.016
2007-08 1889 -0.039
2008-09 (First Half) 948 .015
Reid
April 23, 2009
whoops, minor error in my Antonio McDyess table, I switched his minutes and WP48 in 2008-09