Dictionary.com tells us that the word “overrated” means: to rate or appraise too highly; overestimate
The word “high” is a relative term. To argue that something is “too high” or “too low” requires a reference point. Actually, to be precise, you need two points of reference.
For example, batting average in baseball will overestimate a player’s contribution if that player fails to draw walks and/or can’t hit for power. If we wish to argue that batting average overestimates a player’s contribution we must note where a player is ranked in terms of batting average and also where he is ranked in terms of a measure that considers plate discipline and power (i.e. OPS). In sum, we need two metrics to make the “overrated” argument.
Batting average has been calculated in baseball since the 19th century and it remains the most cited measure of a hitter’s effectiveness (one only needs to watch a baseball game on TV to see this point). When we turn to basketball, the “batting average statistic” (i.e. oldest and most cited) is points scored per game.
As we note in The Wages of Wins (and/or in this forum), this single metric does a remarkably good job of explaining the player evaluations of the coaches, general managers, and the sports media. And just like batting average, points scored per game is obviously not a perfect measure.
Focusing just on scoring ignores other factors that contribution to wins (such as rebounds, turnovers, steals, etc…). Scoring totals can also be inflated with more minutes and/or more shot attempts. In other words, lofty scoring totals may not coincide with scoring efficiency. Despite these shortcomings, scoring totals still dominate the discussion of a basketball player’s value.
Three Perspectives on the Overrated
The topic today is “overrated”, and as noted above, we need two reference points to tackle this subject. And given that this is The Wages of Wins Journal, the second reference point we will consider is Wins Produced. Specifically – as detailed in Table One — we are going to first look at how players rank in terms of both Wins Produced and points-per-game.
Table One: The Overrated Scorers
Table One reports the 15 players who are the most overrated by scoring. At the top of the list is Al Harrington. Of the 128 players who played at least 2,000 minutes in 2008-09, Harrington ranked 22nd in points per game. As detailed more than once in this forum (at least, I think more than once), Harrington has never offered much beyond scoring. Consequently, with respect to Wins Produced he ranks quite low (124 out of 128).
Although points-per-game is frequently cited, there are of course more sophisticated metrics that try and take into account more of what a player does on the court. One of the oldest (and again, commonly cited) of these metrics is NBA Efficiency. This measure is calculated as follows:
NBA Efficiency = Points + Rebounds + Steals + Assists + Blocked Shots – All Missed Shots – Turnovers
Table Two looks at the most overrated players according to this measure.
Table Two: The Overrated in NBA Efficiency
Again our second point of reference is Wins Produced. And again we see Al Harrington topping the list. Joining Harrington on both lists are Andrea Bargnani, Jeff Green, O.J. Mayo, Richard Jefferson [most overrated in 2007-08], Rudy Gay, and Stephen Jackson.
The similarities between the two evaluations are not surprising. The correlation coefficient between these two metrics for the 2008-09 season is 0.89 (NBA Efficiency per game and points scored per game has a 0.93 correlation).
Of course NBA Efficiency is not very sophisticated. This metric essentially adds together a player’s positive actions and subtracts off the negative. What happens if we turn to a measure that attempts to weight each player’s actions?
The most popular weighted measure is John Hollinger’s Player Efficiency Rating (PER). The simple version (okay, much simpler) of the PER metric – Game Score – indicates the basic weights employed.
Game Score = Points + 0.4*Made Field Goals – 0.7*Field Goal Attempts – 0.4*Free Throws Missed + 0.7*Offensive Rebounds + 0.3*Defensive Rebounds + Steals + 0.7*Assists + 0.7*Blocked Shots – 0.4* Personal Fouls – Turnovers
For 2008-09, Game Score and NBA Efficiency have a 0.99 correlation (this is basically what we find in other years as well). PER is a per-minute metric, and it has a 0.99 correlation with Game Score per-minute. Given the high correlation between these measures, we shouldn’t expect much difference in our list of overrated.
Table Three: The Overrated in PER
Before we get to the results, though, we need to note that since PER is a per-minute measure our second reference point has to be WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes]. Despite this change, we still see some familiar names. Once again we see Al Harrington, Rudy Gay, Stephen Jackson, Allen Iverson, Danny Granger, David West, Jamal Crawford, Mehmet Okur, and Richard Hamilton. Harrington, though, doesn’t lead the list of overrated when we compare PER and WP48. Now Michael Beasley tops the list. Yes, this is the same Beasley that John Hollinger says is just as productive as Carlos Boozer (I might offer an entire post on that claim).
The Most Overrated
Although Beasley tops the PER list, he is not the most overrated if we consider all three rankings. If we add together the differences from each comparison the most overrated player in the NBA for 2008-09 is….. yes, Al Harrington. Here are the 15 most overrated players if we consider all three perspectives.
- Al Harrington
- Rudy Gay
- Stephen Jackson
- Andrea Bargnani
- Danny Granger
- David West
- Mehmet Okur
- Richard Jefferson
- Jamal Crawford
- Jermaine O’Neal
- Charlie Villanueva
- Jeff Green
- Richard Hamilton
- Thaddeus Young
- Michael Beasley
One should be clear that “overrated” does not necessarily mean “bad.” Granger and West were above average players [in terms of WP48] this past season. These players just weren’t as good as the scoring based metrics suggest.
For those who want more on this topic, you can see a discussion of past seasons in Chapter 10 of The Wages of Wins. For more on NBA Efficiency, PER, and Game Score, please see the following posts:
NBA Efficiency: Do We Overvalue Rebounds? (November 9, 2006).
PER: A Comment on the Player Efficiency Rating (November 17, 2006)
Game Score: Marvin Williams Makes a Hypothetical Deal (December 16, 2007)
Two more notes:
1. For the WP48 numbers offered in this post, player performance was compared to the exact position played (i.e. center, power forward, etc…). Over the past year or so in this forum I have only been considering three positions (big men, small forward, guards). But the numbers used for this post came from a spreadsheet where averages from all five positions were used, so some differences will be observed if you compare these results to past postings.
2. I also took most of the text for this post from what I said about the Most Overrated Players in 2007-08. In other words, much of this post is a re-run. This seems appropriate since there were players (Richard Jefferson, Rudy Gay, Stephen Jackson, Jamal Crawford, and David West) who managed to repeat an appearance on the overrated list.
UPDATE
In case anyone was interested, here are the next five “overrated” players:
16. O.J. Mayo
17. LaMarcus Aldridge
18. Carmelo Anthony
19. Ben Gordon
20. Wilson Chandler
Given that I am a Pistons fan, I thought I would note that the Pistons spent their free agent money on two players ranked in the top 20 on the “overrated” list. Meanwhile, some very good teams have been shopping from the “underrated” list (which I will post soon).
– DJ
The WoW Journal Comments Policy
Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.
The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score
Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:
Simple Models of Player Performance
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.
Wages of Wins Journal 
Rob O'Malley
July 26, 2009
I’m glad to see that Michael Beasleys WP48 got back to average for a rookie. He is one of my favorite players since he’s from the Baltimore-Washington area. His college numbers were fantastic. Hopefully he can make a second year leap like Kevin Durant did, I think he will. If they pick up Odom, Boozer, and Beasley makes that leap then they could be really good.
PJ
July 26, 2009
But where would they all play? I guess one of them would be a sixth man? Or maybe Odom plays center in a really idiosyncratic lineup?
In any case, I also think Beasley will take a step forward in his sophmore year. He was pretty good for someone so young, especially someone’s who’s a bit of a 3/4 tweener, and thus doesn’t slot too neatly into a readymade system.
As for the topic of the post, if Wages of Wins is correct, I think Danny Granger is probably the most overrated player in the league at this point. Remember that column about how he was basically as good as Kobe (or something)? I think most fans think he’s actually underrated right now.
mceezy
July 26, 2009
Beyond all the numbers, the impression I’m getting is you just have to be a good player on a bad team to make this list. Sure, you could point to a few exceptions, but I wouldn’t call Rudy Gay, Stephen Jackson, or Danny Granger overrated by any stretch of the imagination. Seems to me to be just a situation where a good player is on a bad team and has to carry more of the load, thus forcing more turnovers and jacking up more bad shots. Maybe “Biggest Liabilities” might be a better title. Good post though. http://doin-work.com
dberri
July 26, 2009
mceezy,
There is a reason why these teams aren’t very good. The players leading these teams (listed above) are really not very productive (i.e. not very good). So it is not “good player on bad team.” It is “not very good players and that is why team isn’t very good”.
Anon
July 26, 2009
Also, isn’t it true that playing with a bunch of bad players should allow you to drive up your own stats? If a player is with a bunch of amazing players, that generally drives individual values down a bit. And half the people on that list aren’t people who would be thought of as “carrying the load” on their team. Most of them are second or third options at best. I think it’s a pretty good list.
Jason E.
July 26, 2009
So does this the Warriors maginally improved themselves by trading the most overrated player for the next most over-rated (in order to pair him in the backcourt with the third most overrated)?
Ugh. And you think being a Pistons fan can bring you down.
Adam
July 26, 2009
Since PER also attempts to measure players’ “productivity”(i think), it could be argued that Table Three is actually a list of the players most underrated by WP48!
Having said that, looking at the table i think Wins Produced fits more with my own general impressions.
chan man
July 26, 2009
Thanks Prof, good post as always.
I’m from Vancouver and hated that Heizley guy (owner) who broke his promise and took our team to Memphis. Now looking at them asking Rudy Gay and OJ Mayo to “carry” this team makes me not-so-sad. (and all the empty seats in Memphis)
Anon: I would have to disagree. I understand (and love) how WOW evaluates players, and I even apply it to my own rec league and pick-up games. It’s very obvious, even just by observation, that if you are a good player, playing with bad players do not drag your performance down – you still play well, your team (formed of 4 bad players + you) just keeps losing regardless. On the other hand, when you (good players) are teamed with other 4 excellent players, yes your stats will diminish a little bit BUT your team always wins and thus total Win Produced remains very high.
This is based on a guy who actually plays, watches a lot of games, and wears acadamic glasses of sports economics. (me)
mrparker
July 26, 2009
Berri,
Did you see the all decade team over at Basketball-reference.com?
By memory I believe it was
Billups, Bryant, Duncan, Nowitski, Shaq.
I suspect that the 5 most productive players via WOW would be Kobe, Duncan, Nowitski, Kidd, Garnett if you were just going by the most wins produced. Have you been thinking of doing an all decade team? If so be prepared for 9 million comments.
Raps Fan
July 26, 2009
Just a question: how could Jermaine O’Neal be considered overrated when many of us had zero expectations for the guy?
Sam
July 26, 2009
He’s overrated by the other metrics. His post wasn’t about fan expectations, did you even read it?
Rob O'Malley
July 26, 2009
http://www.basketball-reference.com/fc/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&p1=beaslmi01&y1=2009&p2=boozeca01&y2=2009
You can clearly see that these two players aren’t equal. Their TS%, eFG, and TOs are about the same. Beasley only wins in points scored, shots taken, and blocks. Boozer dominates rebounds, up in steals, and up in assists. I think its clear the effect just simply taking more shots has on PER.
Italian Stallion
July 26, 2009
“Also, isn’t it true that playing with a bunch of bad players should allow you to drive up your own stats? If a player is with a bunch of amazing players, that generally drives individual values down a bit.”
I think this is probably another of those things where the aggregate stats can be misleading and generalizations don’t always hold up.
If your main asset is scoring and you play behind a couple of much better shooters/scorers, you are going to get fewer shots and plays run for you.
If you are mediocre shooter/scorer and the team has a couple of great scorers, the defense may sag off you to help out on the great players and it could actually help you.
If you main asset is passing and assists and you play with a bunch of dead eye shooters and superior athletes that can play above the rim, you are probably going to get a few extra assists and look even better (and vice versa).
Etc….
mceezy
July 26, 2009
No one calls Rudy Gay, Stephen Jackson, or Al Harrington franchise players. Should it drive their production up? Yes, hence the points per game. But also, I’m pointing to the FG% and TO numbers b/c those are the result of being on a mediocre team. If these guys were on playoff teams, no one would call them ‘overrated’ and that’s my point. I think this is misguided. These guys are GREAT players.
Anon
July 27, 2009
If everyone on that list is a GREAT player, who is an example of someone who is NOT great??
I mean outside of the sense that anyone who plays in the nba at all is definitely an amazing basketball player compared to a normal person, a lot of those people are clearly bums.
I can assure you that nothing Richard Jefferson or Charlie Villanueva did was at all “great” last year. The only bucks player who I always think is pretty good is Bogut, and he’s frequently injured. Pretty much everyone else is either a bit player or inconsistent or one-dimensional.
Raps4evr
July 27, 2009
Sorry Berri, your list is absolutely terrible…, and quiet frankly almost all of them do not qualify as “overrated”.
Random Baller
July 27, 2009
what I find most interesting from this post is what came out in the discussion. ie. are the list of players here on bad teams or did they make their team bad (with some exceptions).
Take for instances Rudy Gay, is it that he is overrated and therefore its shown through his teams win/loss record, or was he drafted by a bad team and thereby is statistically overrated? Chicken and the egg.
Just as a side note, I do have concerns over calling these players ‘overrated’ in and of themselves. As these stats can and do take little defensive ability into consideration with almost all the empahisis on offensive statistics. Sure steals and blocks are valued but I have never considered those show a true value of a players defense (eg. Camby…. great defender statistically… yet his team is always one of the worst defensively).
It might be better to call these guys “overrated offensively” or “offensively inefficient”.
All said and done, the list seems relatively accurate. Those who watch basketball regualirly will already recognize most of these guys as players who score and do little else.
DSMok1
July 27, 2009
Would it be possible to do a list comparing Adjusted +/- and wins produced? That would be very informative…. not exactly an “overrated” post, but a comparative post. DBerri, you said a while back that you were considering using some +/- data to supplement your wins produced calculation on the defensive end… what was your final decision? Is the +/- data just too noisy at this point?
Clay Kallam
July 27, 2009
As always, the biggest problem with these metrics is that they don’t measure defense — which pretty much has to be by reputation because it’s all we’ve got.
Stephen Jackson, for example, is supposedly a good defensive player. (As a Warrior fan, I see him a lot on TV and he’s a smart player and probably a pretty good defender.) For him, at least, that might move him down on the overrrated list.
That said, he’s most likely the best player on the team so he has to try to make plays when he shouldn’t — or Don Nelson (speaking of overrated) calls his number so he tries to make plays when he shouldn’t.
That, however, is off my main point that unless a solid defensive metric is included, it’s hard to really call a player overrated.
simon
July 27, 2009
Isn’t Jackson pretty much the only one with such reputation on this list though? I don’t think the usual criticism of defense, while certainly valid to an extent, applies in this case. If Berri had likes of Battier or Artest then you’d have a better case.
mrparker
July 27, 2009
I think the defensive stopper is a myth. We have yet to see one of these so called players go to a team and make them a better defensive team. We have seen scorers make teams worse. We have seen great rebounders make defenses better. However, we have not seen a defensive stopper make a defense better. Until then, I consider that player a myth.
Jimbo
July 27, 2009
Who are the most overrated if you consider the wins produced stat?
brgulker
July 27, 2009
I got a chuckle out of this:
In other words, much of this post is a re-run. This seems appropriate since there were players (Richard Jefferson, Rudy Gay, Stephen Jackson, Jamal Crawford, and David West) who managed to repeat an appearance on the overrated list.
Dr. Berri, you might also be interested in this:
http://www.raptorblog.com/090722a.php
It’s an attempt to summarize that stats generated in summer league.
Interestingly, Budinger and Blair top this list — two guys our beloved Pistons passed on (or more accurately, passed on Blair twice and traded Budinger for a future pick after drafting him).
One other thing, (sarcasm) I’m sick of your posts ruining my day!
Collectively, we have Rip, Gordon, and CV, 3 of the top 20 most overrated players, all on our team!
When you’ve got players like Dice and Big Ben (in his prime), it makes it a little more tolerable to have guys who “just score.” But, given the short supply of tall people, it’s hard to keep up the optimism …
Caleb
July 27, 2009
@mrparker
“However, we have not seen a defensive stopper make a defense better. Until then, I consider that player a myth.”
Hm… while I can’t think of any instances (off the top of my head that is) where adding a defensive stopper dramatically changed a team’s defensive efficiency… I think its a stretch to say this means that the “defensive stopper” is a myth.
Did you watch the Hornets/Spurs series in 07-08? The Spurs get blown out twice in a row… and Popovich decides to make an adjustment. He puts “defensive stopper” Bruce Bowen on Peja (who shot the lights out in the first two games) and Bowen is able to continually frustrate Peja. The Spurs go on to win the series. It wasn’t the only reason they won, but it certainly changed the series.
Peja shot 7 – 11 from 3-pt range in the first two games, but only managed 4 – 11 in the next *5* games. And while he shot over 60% overall from the field in the first two games, he struggled to crack 40% and even 30% in the rest of the games with the exception of game 6. In that game he shot 5 -10 but stil only managed 13 points, about half of what he scored in games one and two. His overall shooting dipped to as low as 27% in the final game. Its probably one of the best examples I can think of a defensive stopper having a large and easily observable impact.
ilikeflowers
July 27, 2009
Given that 4 – 11 is essentially the same as Peja’s season average 3pt% (.36 vs .38), I’m thinking that either the first two games were just an aberration or that the Spur’s defense in the first game was awful and Bowen brought it up to average.
ilikeflowers
July 27, 2009
that’s what I get for skimming, I missed the 2pt percentage effect, doh!
Caleb
July 27, 2009
@i like flowers… yes the 2-pt percentage is just as important, perhaps more so.
Also, you are incorrect about Peja’s season average in 07-08. He was a 44% three-point shooter that season, and he’s only had a few seasons where he was a sub-40% 3-pt shooter (this past one in which he shot 38% being his worst shooting season since the 99-00 season).
Something I didn’t note earlier but intended to was that not only did Peja’s percentages go down against Bowen, but so did his shot attempts. Not only did Bowen effect Peja’s shot-making ability, but he seems to have hurt Peja’s ability to get shots into the air.
Peja’s FG attempts in the playoffs prior to game 3 of the Spurs series. 14.0 per game
Peja’s FG attempts from game 3 through game 7: 9.0 per game.
That’s a drop of 5 shots per game! Its the same with 3-pt attempts. 5.5 attempts through the mavs series and the first two games against the spurs, and just 2.2 3-pt attempts after that.
Rob O'Malley
July 27, 2009
Cambys defensive teams weren’t as bad as people think. At least not in Denver. They were around league average per possession, they just played really fast paced.
Sam Cohen
July 27, 2009
Caleb–
1. I’m too lazy to look it up, but did the Hornets team offensive efficiency change noticeably after Bowen switched who he was guarding, or was it just that Peja’s numbers went down? If only Peja’s number went down, then Bowen’s defense seems to have “shut down” Peja without actually improving San Antonio’s defense. That said, I feel like Bowen did a similar number on Shawn Marion in the playoffs a few years ago. (And I know that I’m ignoring the small sample size issue.)
Completely anecdotally, I play pick-up basketball with someone who is a lights out shooter but not that good at creating his own shot. If I guard him and don’t help out at all, I can generally keep him from scoring. So I definitely believe that you can “stop” a player. But at the same time, in order to do so I need to completely give up helping out on other penetration. I have no idea if “stopping” the shooter actually makes my team’s defense better.
2. Wouldn’t the more valid case study be the addition of a “stopper” to a new team? Isn’t that the situation Mr. Parker is driving at? In the Bowen/Peja example, Bowen was already on the Spurs, he was just guarding a different man.
Caleb
July 27, 2009
@Sam
Regarding your second question.. sure, I was just using the Bowen/Peja example as I think it’s a very good instance of a “shutdown defender” living up to his rep in an easily observable way.
As far as whether or not there was a big change in the Hornets offensive efficiency… well I really don’t feel like calculating the possesions and that stuff right now, but it doesn’t seem neccesary to do so – just by looking at the box scores it certainly does look like the Hornets offensive efficiency took a dive. In the first couple of games the Hornets shot around 50% from the field. That continued in game 3, but after that they dropped to around 40% and hovered around there for the rest of the series, dropping below 40% in game 7. The turnover totals went up a bit too (but not by much), so it seems safe to assume that yes… the Hornets offense struggled after the first two games. And that was obvious watching the series… particularly in game 7, the Hornets just couldn’t get the ball to go in the basket. If I get in the mood later maybe I’ll actually calculate their offensive efficiency for the individual games. And yeah, we are certainly dealing with small sample sizes… but I think its still worth discussing.
mrparker
July 27, 2009
In a nutshelll…I’m only saying that defensive stoppers don’t effect overall team defense in the way that they are portrayed in the mainstream. I would also hesitate to use a single playoff series as an example. Secondarily, would Bowen have been as successful at stopping Peja without Tim Duncan and Manu on the floor with him? Its an honest question which I’m not asking in jest
Caleb
July 27, 2009
“I’m only saying that defensive stoppers don’t effect overall team defense in the way that they are portrayed in the mainstream.”
That may or may not be true… I’m really not sure. What may be the case is that defensive stoppers do not cast a large enough net to signifigantly impact a team’s defensive efficiency over a whole season (and actually I’m withholding judgement on that… it would take a lot of research throughout the league’s history on perceived “defensive stoppers” to prove that I think), but nevertheless can have a big impact on individual games and series, in which case a single series is actually the perfect example.
As to your question re: Manu and Duncan. Interesting question, and it’s hard to say. My assumption is that a guy like Bowen will always have defensive success, but playing with other solid defenders on a team that emphasizes defense allows him to be even more succesful at what he does. So I guess my answer is.. maybe, heh.
Austin Sharp
July 27, 2009
The Bowen/Peja example is a good example of how a defensive stopper is useful to be able to shut down the hot hand. I don’t know how much any single player can affect team defense.
I’ve pondered the possibility of some sort of system that shows the change in WP48 of players when guarded by a certain player. To use for things like to see if Battier and Artest made Kobe play worse during the playoffs this past season. Obviously it wouldn’t be easy to do this in large quantity (for the purpose of giving players a defensive rating) but it could be useful for examining specific matchups.
Though I have to wonder, given the tight correlation of Wins Produced and actual wins, whether it’s worth the effort to get maybe 1% more explanatory power.
Peter
July 28, 2009
Austin,
First off, it’s important to note why losing NBA teams try to get the first overall pick while NFL teams stay away from it. I’m temporarily suspending the salary cap issue for purposes of this discussion.
In the NFL, a Peyton Manning or a Tom Brady comprises one-eleventh of your offense and none of your defense, proportionally speaking. Even if a quarterback has all the tools to be a franchise star, he still needs an offensive line to protect him, wide receivers he can throw to etc.
On the other hand, an NBA star takes up one-fifth of your offense and defense. The best players make things easier for their teammates, which positively affects their productivity in several ways. Quarterbacks and defensive ends can do this too, just not to the effect NBA stars can, just because of the proportions.
Even if you can’t assign a star or a defensive stopper to the opposing team’s best player, he can still create a talent imbalance elsewhere. For example, having Battier and Artest guard Bryant made things easier for guys like Lamar Odom, who didn’t have to deal with the defensive stoppers all the time.
Mark Wylie
July 28, 2009
Hi Dave
Just wondering if you follow any basketball writers or blogs? I usually enjoy reading Charley Rosen from FoxSports break down of players abilities but in his latest article CP3 and KG make his list of most overrated players.
Also have you ever done a post on the All Time All NBA team? Eg SG would be 88-89 Jordan or something similar to the post you did on Ranking Every Player for the Los Angeles Lakers since 1977 but across all teams?
sunil
July 28, 2009
Doesn`t NBA efficiency punish 3 point shooters The formula is: NBA Efficiency = Points + Rebounds + Steals + Assists + Blocked Shots – All Missed Shots – Turnovers. Assuming all other stats were equal, a 3pt shooter misses more shots to generate the same number of points as a 2pt shooter. As such, they would have a lower NBA efficiency. However, from a basketball perspective, the 3pt shooter would be preferred, ceteris paribus, as he spreads the floor, and in so doing makes other players better.
Game score makes a similar error. The formula is: Game Score = Points + 0.4*Made Field Goals – 0.7*Field Goal Attempts – 0.4*Free Throws Missed + 0.7*Offensive Rebounds + 0.3*Defensive Rebounds + Steals + 0.7*Assists + 0.7*Blocked Shots – 0.4* Personal Fouls – Turnovers. Given every other stat remaining the same, a 3pt shooter will have fewer made field goals for the same number of points as a 2pt shooter.
Just because a 3pt shooter can make 6 points with 6 shots, that does not imply a player is equivalent to a 2pt shooter that makes 6 points in 6 shots. The reason is that with the extra made field goal, there is a dead-ball situation (which is better for the defence), whereas the extra 3 point miss likely turns into a long rebound, which can trigger a fast-break. However, the miss could also be converted into an offensive rebound (with a lower probability), leading to an additional 2 pts.
sunil
July 28, 2009
To see the difference good 3 pt shooter makes, see: http://basketball-statistics.com/howtheshootingabilitiesofpointguardsaffectoffenses.html which only looks at pg`s who can shoot the 3.
sunil
July 28, 2009
If you use the statistics from when Bargnani became a starter (over 19 pts a game, etc.), does his score improve significantly
Don Taylor
September 10, 2009
PER is out of control http://thepaintedarea.blogspot.com/2009/09/was-admiral-in-big-os-class.html