The Dallas Mavericks entered the All-Star break on top of the Southwest Division. The team’s winning percentage, though, only ranked 4th in the Western Conference. And when we turn to efficeincy differential (offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency) – reported in Table One – we see that Dallas currently ranks 8th in the West.
Table One: Efficiency Differential Rankings at the All-Star Break
Given these numbers, we would expect the Mavericks to make the playoffs. But a first round exit seems likely.
When we move from efficiency differential to Wins Produced we can see who is responsible for this team’s performance.
Table Two: The Dallas Mavericks after 52 games in 2009-10
As Table Two reports, Jason Kidd is once again leading this team in Wins Produced. After Kidd, though, the team only has three above average performers (among players who have played more than 300 minutes). Consequently, despite the play of Kidd, the Mavericks are only slightly above average as a team.
Dallas Makes a Move Up the Western Conference Standings
The “averageness” of this team has driven the team to make a significant move. Drew Gooden, Josh Howard, Quinton Ross, and James Singleton have been sent to the Washington Wizards for Caron Butler, Brendan Haywood, and DeShawn Stevenson. Of these players, it’s tempting to focus on Butler. Last season Butler averaged 20.8 points per game. This year his average has dropped of to 16.9 (a mark close to his career average). Nevertheless, Butler is still the top scorer in this transaction.
Although Butler can score, the most productive player the Mavericks acquired– as the following numbers report – is Brendan Haywood.
Haywood: 6.5 Wins Produced, 0.192 WP48
Butler: 3.2 Wins Produced, 0.083 WP48
Stevenson: -0.5 Wins Produced, -0.038 WP48
The addition of these players give the Mavericks the following rotation across the last 30 games of the regular season (at least, I think this is a reasonalbe guess at the rotation):
Starters
Jason Kidd: 0.308 WP48
Caron Butler: 0.083 WP48
Shawn Marion: 0.138 WP48
Dirk Nowitzki: 0.130 WP48
Brendan Haywood: 0.192 WP48
Bench
Jose Barea: 0.024 WP48
Rodrigue Beaubois: 0.053 WP48
Jason Terry: 0.065 WP48
Erick Dampier: 0.170 WP48
Note: The Mavericks have an abundance of guards. So it seems likely that Butler will spend quite a bit of time at small forward and Marion will often shift over to power forward.
Given this roster, how good are the Mavericks today? Looking back at Table One we see that Howard was the least productive player on the Mavericks this season. So replacing Howard with Butler is an upgrade. And once again, Haywood is very productive. Consequently, it’s possible the Mavericks could win about 21 of their final 30 games (this estimate is based upon my guess of how many minutes each player will play down the stretch). Had the Mavericks stayed the same, this team could have expected to win about 17 more games. So in terms of the final standings, this move doesn’t really alter the final record dramatically. But that’s because there are only 30 games left.
If we look at how this team would be expected to perform across 82 games, though, we see a bigger difference. Winning 21 out of 30 games translates into a final mark of 57 wins. Looking back at Table One, we see that a 57 win team would rank just behind the LA Lakers in the Western Conference.
So here is what the Mavericks have done. Prior to the trade the Mavericks were on pace to make the playoffs but exit in the first round. Now the Mavericks have caught the Utah Jazz and Denver Nuggets and are quite close to the LA Lakers. Now Dallas shouldn’t be favored to reach the NBA Finals. But this move might make it possible for Dallas to reach the Western Conference Finals (or at least, the LA Lakers in the second round if Dallas can’t get above the fourth seed in the West). And all of this means that Dallas has moved from the status of pretender to contender in the West.
John Hollinger of ESPN.com (Insider access required) argues that this trade will cost the Mavericks about $30 million. Since it seems unlikely that this move will generate that much additional revenue, from the perspective of the bottom line this move isn’t great. But if the purpose was to lengthen the team’s stay in the playoffs, this move will probably work (BTW, Hollinger doesn’t appear to agree on this point, but that is because the Player Efficiency Rating – as we briefly note in our next book — doesn’t really connect very well to team wins).
The Season that Wasn’t in Washington
Okay, enough about the Mavericks. What about the Wizards? Of the players acquired, James Singleton – who doesn’t often play – is the only above average performer. So in the short-run, the Wizards are much worse off. This means the Wizards – who were going to miss the playoffs anyway – are likely to secure a higher draft choice.
It’s unfortunate that Washington’s season has taken this turn. Before the season started it looked like Washington would be able to field the following starting line-up: Gilbert Arenas, Mike Miller, Caron Butler, Antawn Jamison, and Brendan Haywood. All five of these players are capable of being above average, and consequently, Washington should have expected to make the playoffs. According to 82games.com, though, this line-up only played 45.8 minutes together this season. And with different players on the court, we shouldn’t be surprised that Washington has never contended in the East.
Now Washington has effectively blown-up their roster. At the moment, the Wizards only have two above average players [Miller has a WP48 of 0.278 while Jamison’s mark is 0.108]. As noted, the Wizards will be able to add a very high draft choice. But it looks like Washington is going to need more help than what they will find in the draft. So although this move will save money, it looks like the Wizards have quite a distance to travel before playoff basketball once again returns to Washington.
Last Notes on Efficiency Differential
Let me close with a final observation from Table One. At the All-Star break, the Cleveland Cavaliers are the best team in the NBA. And now there is talk that the Cavalies are going send two below average players (J.J. Hickson and Zydrunas Ilgauskas) for Amare Stoudemire (a slightly above average player). Such a move makes Cleveland even better. So it is seems increasingly likely that LeBron will win his first title this season. Of course, upsets do happen in the playoffs (as LeBron learned last year). But at the All-Star break, it does look like Cleveland is going to be one happy town this summer.
– DJ
The WoW Journal Comments Policy
Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.
The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score
Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:
Simple Models of Player Performance
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.
bags fly free
February 14, 2010
Good move for Dallas, Dampier/Haywood+Dirk gives them a nice big front court to match up or even maybe edge out Denver/Spurs bigs.
Now ESPN says Big Z would take a buy out and re sign with the Cavs…Watching Orlando-Cleveland game one of the TNT commentators said that Cavs are +14 with Ilgauskas on the floor and something like -2 with Shaq. Don’t know what to make out of it, doesn’t really matter because the only thing I notice is that Cavs suddenly become an average team when Lebron is on the bench :)
Josh Smith
February 14, 2010
Why didn’t you mention Drew Gooden? Doesn’t he have a pretty high wins produced?
dberri
February 14, 2010
Gooden is mentioned in the tables. He has done better in the past. This year he is slightly below average.
todd2
February 14, 2010
Can a team’s differential be affected by the strength of their schedule? The Mavs play in arguably the strongest division in the league. Denver’s division is strong, too. They might be better than their record indicates compared to other division leaders.
John Giagnorio
February 14, 2010
This trade is better for Dallas than your analysis suggests. Butler’s WP48 has been steadily declining – my brief look through the archives of this site showed him at .250 in 07-08, around .150 last year, and now under .100. It looks like most of this is tied to falling FG%. 07-08 he set career marks in 2PT%, 3PT%, and FT% so I wouldn’t expect him to bounce back to that level, but Butler is below his career averages in 2PT% and 3PT% this year. He seems very, very likely to improve over the rest of the season, so I think this trade puts the Mavs on the same level as the Lakers. Excellent trade.
Maybe this trade is an example of why MLB owners didn’t want Cuban to own a baseball team. He clearly cares too much about winning and doesn’t realize that the correct way to operate a pro sports team is to spend nothing while milking your sweet anti-trust exemption :)
Statement
February 14, 2010
Quick question,
The predictions of your model for team wins are based on efficiency differential right? Because the Rap’s winning only 40 games as your model currently predicts is looking like a pretty poor projection.
But if the Raps continue their winning ways (which I think they will), there efficiency differential will change and hence their projected wins will change, right?
Otherwise, they are going to generate a huge error for you if you are stuck on the 40 win projection.
simon
February 14, 2010
statement:
Such is always expected in statistical models and not too many people predicted Bosh would’ve become a legit superstar this year. Do keep in mind that player projections are just that, and they change from year-to-year. Of course, all this stuff is in the book.
Also as a Raptors fan I say the Raptors are due for a break! If you recall, they had one season(07-08) where they were nearly a 50 win team according to the efficiency differential yet only won 41 games. So if they win more than what the differential suggests this season, karma may just be real.
Michael
February 15, 2010
Do you consider Nowitzki to be done at this point Professor? He may be old but he has posted significantly better numbers in the past. Is it doubtful he may return to form?
dberri
February 15, 2010
Not sure Nowitzki is done. I do think it is clear that he shouldn’t be considered the MVP.
khandor
February 15, 2010
Since the beginning of this season, the Dallas Mavericks have been going in reverse.
Trading Kris Humphries was a mistake … not because he is a particularly good basketball player but because of what little they actually received, in return [i.e. Najera is nowhere near being the same player he was a few years ago].
Trading for Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood, now … if the Mavs do not also make a 2nd collateral move … is a mistake, as well, when the players they are giving up, in return, are Josh Howard/SF-PF, Drew Gooden/PF, Quinton Ross/SF-OG and James Singleton/PF-SF.
At this point of his career, Dirk Nowitzki is best used as a main-frame Center … which is unlikely to be how he will be used most frequently by Dallas for the rest of this season with Haywood and Dampier now on their roster and a dirth of other players who can function adequately at the PF spot with the exceptions of Shawn Marion and Tim Thomas.
Caron Butler today is not the same Caron Butler of 2 or 3 years ago.
Even if he regains his former form, however, the Mavs are now overloaded at the guard position with smallish players… i.e. PG/OG – Barea, Beaubois [who is going to be a future superstar in the NBA :-) ], Terry, Carroll and [even] Kidd … while only having Butler, Marion and Thomas who can function at the SF spot.
When the Mavs go with a 5-Man Unit of:
PG – Barea/Terry/Beaubois
OG – Kidd
SF – Butler
PF – Marion
C – Nowitzki
they will then have no other SF to come back with … who has any effective size to speak-of and is capable of playing 1st-class NBA defense and rebounding against the other big time wing players in the league today.
As is, then, the key to this trade working out for the Mavs this season … in terms of making them a legit threat to reach the WC Finals against the Lakers … will be the play of Tim Thomas.
Is Tim Thomas really the sort of player who a legitimate contending team should want/be willing to pin its hopes on this season?
IMO, Donnie Nelson is a better GM than this.
Leon
February 15, 2010
Very interesting. It seems that the mavs are suffering more from age than the Celtics are. Marion and Dirk were both extremely high producers in the past, and have fallen well done from those days. Dampier and Terry have both seen declines in recent seasons too. All these players are over 30, and Jason Kidd is on the wrong side of the big 3 oh as well. Surely adding these two now 30-ish year old’s is a finally push for the mavs to try and get a title for all these years of contending. All they have to show for it are a conference and division title from 4 and 3 years ago respectively.
AOM
February 15, 2010
I have been trying to reconcile PAWSmin to WP48 for Dallas, as well as the players traded. Previous posts had a conversion formula stating:
0.104 + 1.621*PAWSmin = WP48.
I don’t get the same WP48 that you indicate in the table showing Dallas after 52 games. In some instances, I am way off (Dampier – implied of .258; actual of .170). And the implied WP48 from PAWSmin is always higher than the actual WP48 in the Dallas table. Has the formula changed? Or the position player adjustments? Am I missing something else?
AOM
dberri
February 15, 2010
AOM,
The forumula for this last year would be somewhat different. I will try and update this formula.
AOM
February 15, 2010
Thanks for the response. I thought that was the case, but I wasn’t sure.
Don’t update the formula solely on my account, although it will be interesting to see whenever you have the time to do so.
AOM
Peter
February 16, 2010
The latest from the rumor mill has the Portland Trail Blazers potentially nearing a trade for Marcus Camby.
Considering that Portland was already one of the top teams in the West as it was, such a deal (which would likely send Steve Blake, Travis Outlaw and cash) could very well be the deal that pushes the Blazers towards being a team on par with the Lakers, provided that Camby is motivated enough to play up to form.
Peter
February 16, 2010
The trade has been made official. At least for the short-term, the productivity advantage goes to Portland.
dberri
February 16, 2010
Blazers move back into contending status. I will run the numbers and try and get a post up later today.
Michael
February 16, 2010
The only downside for Portland I can see is that Camby is reportedly not happy about this trade.
Apparently his wife likes it in LA :-p
BombLogic
February 17, 2010
Nowitzki really is old. I think he is not as good as he used to be in his youth. But still gives Dallas a nice push.
todd2
February 18, 2010
Dallas’ gives them a pretty good upgrade defensively. If Dirk is willing to accept a less prominent role the Mavs will be tought to beat.
todd2
February 18, 2010
11/24 last nite in a win. ain’t gonna cut it in the post-season.
Will
February 24, 2010
According to Jason Terry:
“The guy has rejuvenated himself,” Dallas guard Jason Terry said of Haywood. “It’s funny. When you’re on a losing team, people don’t see what kind of talent you have. Now that he’s with us, he’s able to showcase his skills.”
I guess somebody has not been reading https://dberri.wordpress.com
Will
February 24, 2010
Here is the link for the Terry quote
http://espn.go.com/nba/preview?gameId=300224006