Arturo Galletti – at “Arturo’s Silly Little Stats” – has offered a few studies of rookies recently (see his “Prove me Wrong” series HERE, HERE, and HERE). His latest – reposted below – is a quick look at the preseason rookie numbers. In the next day or so I am going to build upon the story Arturo is telling below.
So, I’ve been working on the model, a team review and my next series all day and I haven’t had the time to pull a full post together. I did throw together a nice table on preseason numbers for rookies and I thought people might get a kick out of it:
If I look at hit rate (WP48 <.100) for rookies playing 60 minutes or more in the preseason the undrafted outperform the draftees 33% of 18 vs 28% of 32. They’re also 7 of the top 14. Yes, I know, preseason. :-)
Good night & God bless.
Wages of Wins Journal 
Shawn Ryan
October 25, 2010
“If I look at hit rate (WP48 .100) ?
Italian Stallion
October 25, 2010
Landry Fields actually has a chance to be the starting SG for the Knicks. I loved him in summer league and he hasn’t disappointed in pre season.
arturogalletti
October 25, 2010
SR,
Hit Rate: did the rookie play at the level of an average NBA player (>.100 WP48) and play at least 60 minutes? So everyone from Evan Turner up is a hit. From Haragondy to Hasbrouck a miss.
Matt
October 25, 2010
So maybe Evan Turner wasn’t as terrible as everyone seems to be saying. If you can shoot 30% and still be average that could be a good sign, no?
kevin
October 26, 2010
Not that this has anything to do with rookies but that Scalabrine pickup by the Bulls… Wow, 57% from the field in the preseason. I’m thinking he’s a key piece for putting him over the top. Look out Heat and Celtics.
Gil Meriken
November 1, 2010
It’s early in the season, but I looked at Lebron’s WS/48 through three games at basketball-reference.com, and it’s a meager 0.095 … obviously, I expect that to increase, but even if he lands somewhere in the 0.200-.230 range by the end of the season, does that imply he somehow got worse simply by changing teams? Or is it your expectation that he will eventually get back to 0.300 range, since WS/48 should be a stable indicator of productivity regardless of who your teammates are?