The Portland Trail Blazers came into existence in 1970. In the team’s first four seasons success proved elusive. Not only did the team fail to have a winning season, Portland never even managed to reach the 30 win threshold. As is often the case in North American sports, failure is rewarded. For the Blazers, the reward came in 1974 when Portland took Bill Walton with the first pick in the NBA draft.
In Walton’s rookie season the Blazers managed to win 38 games and even score more points than their opponents. The next season the team took a small step back, but the 1976-77 team – led in Wins Produced by Bill Walton – managed to both lead the league in efficiency differential (offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency) and win the NBA title.
Walton was hurt the next season and by the time he took the court again in 1979 he was wearing the uniform of the San Diego Clippers. Without Walton, though, Portland still found some success. After posting a negative efficiency differential in 1979-80, the Trail Blazers embarked on a string of 23 seasons where their efficiency differential was always in the positive range. Although another championship proved elusive, no other franchise has been able to put together a longer streak of above average performances (at least not since 1973-74, the first year we can measure efficiency differential).
History Repeats
In 2003-04 this streak came to an end. And over the next three seasons – just as we saw at the onset of this franchise – success proved elusive. The team only averaged 30.3 wins per season and Portland’s efficiency differential was always in the negative range.
Once again, such failure was rewarded. In 2007 Portland selected Greg Oden with the number one pick in the NBA draft. Unfortunately, Oden was injured in the summer of 2007 and missed the entire 2007-08 campaign. Despite losing Oden, Portland still managed to win half its games last season (although the team’s efficiency differential was in the negative range).
Such success without Oden suggested that Portland was a team on the rise. And in 2008-09 we see some evidence of this ascension. After posting a -1.06 efficiency differential in 2007-08, Portland’s differential stands at 3.19 after 34 games in 2008-09. Such a mark is consistent with a team that will win about 49 games. In other words, after winning 41 games last year, Portland has so far improved by about eight games. Yes, this is a leap forward although perhaps not quite the leap some people envisioned last summer.
When we look at the individual players we can identify who is responsible for Portland’s success.
Table One: The Portland Trail Blazers after 34 games in 2008-09
From Table One we see that Portland currently employs six players – Joel Przybilla, Brandon Roy, Rudy Fernandez, Steve Blake, Greg Oden, and Nicolas Batum — who are posting WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes] marks that are above average (average is 0.100). Each of the veterans in this list has posted above average numbers in the past. And although few expected Batum to make a significant contribution, the play of Oden and Fernandez during their rookie seasons is not unexpected.
Missing Lottery Picks
Virtually all of this team’s wins can be traced to this list of players. If we look at the remainder of the roster we see a number of lottery picks, but not much productivity. For example, LaMarcus Aldridge was selected with the second choice of the 2006 draft. Thus far – as Table Two notes – Aldridge has yet to produce wins at an above average level.
Table Two: Evaluating LaMarcus Aldridge
When we look at the individual stats we see where Aldridge succeeds and fails. Aldridge is very good at taking shots from the field. As a consequence, he’s an above producer of points. He is also good at blocking shots and he avoids turnovers. But he’s below average on the boards, he doesn’t get many assists, and he can’t get to the free throw line. And when we look at the total package, as noted, he’s a below average performer.
A similar story can be told about Martell Webster, Channing Frye, and Ike Diogu. Each of these players was taken in the lottery and each has yet to finish a season with an above average WP48 mark. And thus far, Jerryd Bayless – the team’s 2008 lottery pick – has not impressed in limited minutes.
A Bright Future
Although we don’t know that the underperforming players will continue to offer disappointing levels of productivity, it seems likely that Portland will have to look elsewhere for additional wins. Fortunately it looks like elsewhere is currently on the roster. Four of the six above average players in Portland are under the age of 25. This means that it is quite possible that these players will improve. Perhaps the most likely candidate to improve is Greg Oden. Oden is only21 years of age and has only played in 28 NBA games. Although he has been above average thus far, one suspects he will get even better.
If that happens, Portland will once again be led by a big man who is not a prolific scorer, but is able to get rebounds. Unfortunately, just like we saw with Walton, the new big man in town is also prone to injury. Portland fans hope, though, that Oden can lead the Blazers to another title before injuries derail a promising career. And if Oden is following the Walton schedule, that championship will come in Oden’s third year (or 2010-11). Hopefully for Oden’s sake, another major injury doesn’t occur in 2011-12.
– DJ
The WoW Journal Comments Policy
Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.
The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score
Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:
Simple Models of Player Performance
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.
Wages of Wins Journal 
Tball
January 7, 2009
The comment about Aldridge reminds me that he was easily the best player taken in the top three picks, and probably the top 5 picks. How lousy was that draft?
Hanny
January 7, 2009
The blazers play the slowest pace in league and have two very good rebounding centers. That leave fewer rebounds available for the rest of the position players. I doubt an average rebounding PF would grab any more rebounds than Aldridge has. Your formula assumes every one at a particular position has equal opportunity to grab rebounds.
Comparing players to a “mythical” league average is an oversimplification because team dynamics differ for each team. If the blazers has another reliable scorer to pair with Roy then Aldridge wouldn’t need to take as many shots and his efficiency might dramatically improve. Likewise without strong rebounders at the center position there would many more opportunities to grab rebounds for Aldridge.
His PER suggest he is a slightly above average player. This is probably a realistic assessment of his productivity. Decent young player but not one who has shown star potential yet.
Erich
January 7, 2009
The Blazers are an exciting team, and I’m interested if they can somehow pull of a rumored deal for David Lee.
Thank you for linking my DraftExpress article, and allow me to point to my http://www.draftexpress.com/article/Win-Scores-2008-NBA-Draft-Recap-2953/>”Draft Review” article, where I boldly (and probably wrongly) claim that Oden & Fernandez were 2 of the 4 ROY favorites coming into the year.
Erich
January 7, 2009
Oops, I screwed up the html link to the article, just refer to the link on my name
mrparker
January 7, 2009
DB,
I am wrong in assuming that if Oden can improve his theiving/stealing skills that he will be one of the elite defenders in the league?
His numbers right now compare very favorably to D. Howard’s rookie year. I realize there is a difference in age, but was discounting Oden for coming off an injury.
Any answer would be greatly appreciated.
Joe
January 7, 2009
Erich,
How about a midseason review of the rookies? As a Sixer fan, I am a bit interested to see where Speights fits. By PER, he has a commanding lead over the rest of the rookies.(and the NBA)
I checked his Est. WP48 a week ago or so and I believe he was in the .150 range… does he have a chance to make a push for most productive rookie?
Joe
January 7, 2009
Meant to say “(And most of the NBA)”
Vince Gagliano
January 7, 2009
Joe:
Speights is certainly ahead of the curve as far as on-the-court productivity is concerned, but as it stands, he needs to make a push in the depth chart.
With Elton Brand gone, he’s sharing time with Theo Ratliff off the bench. If Dalembert continues to struggle, and Speights can maintain his performance, who knows?
The important thing for Philadelphia is that Mo is doing a lot with the minutes he is getting now. Give him the second half of the season and a summer to improve, and you’ll likely see big improvement in Year 2.
Remember, Ed Stefanski drafted Speights knowing that he wasn’t going to do a lot right away.
As for Portland, Przybilla’s leap to team M2P is contingent on an insanely high field goal percentage, as in making more than 3 out of every 4 shots. As for Oden, well, he isn’t where Walton was his rookie season, that’s for sure.
Vince Gagliano
January 7, 2009
By the way, since the Grizzlies waived Darius Miles, that means that the chances that his salary will cripple the Blazers’ cap room go down.
Granted, he still has 8 games left to play before that happens. However, the Blazers could very well be championship material in 2010-11 if they can use the that space to…well, you know.
Mountain
January 7, 2009
Aldridge at the clear team leader +13 per 48 on “2 yr” adjusted +/-. 7th best in the league. One metric or the other is way off or both. Maybe it is better to blend.
mrparker
January 7, 2009
re Oden,
I would be careful about evaluating oden off of what his wp48 is right now. It includes a team defense adjustment and his team’s defense is insanely bad. Besides Oden and Pryz they have nothing defensively. His number compare very favorably to D. Howard in his rookie year. Numbers available at bball-reference.com
Jason E
January 7, 2009
Re: Aldridge
I find it very curious how whenever a poor shooter or poor rebounder who is often more widely perceived as a good player gets criticized there are always excuses for why the bad shots/lack of rebounds are actually the fault of teammates who aren’t good enough/are too good and thus he has to do more/doesn’t have the opportunity to do more. Usually, it’s only one or the other, but Aldridge is pulling off a rare double!
too many steves
January 7, 2009
Why can’t Aldridge be both a poor rebounder and a good player? He’s a good scorer with the potential to be a very good one. He doesn’t get many assists but I haven’t noticed him to be a particularly bad passer. He blocks shots but he’s probably a below-average man-to-man defender, so I’d say that makes him average overall on D. No, he’s not a good rebounder for a guy his size. But if Oden works out like everything thinks he will, Portland doesn’t need a big defender and rebounder at the 4. They need a scorer to take some heat off of Roy. Somebody like … well, LaMarcus Aldridge.
Plus, Aldridge is a hell of a lot better than Tyrus Thomas.
Eric L
January 7, 2009
Aldridge’s rebounding #’s are also effected by wear he gets his touches. Which in portland’s offense is typically either off the pick and pop or the high post.
Other thought: Isn’t Portland one of the better rebounding teams in the league? I don’t think it’s his role in either the offense or defense.
mrparker
January 8, 2009
re aldridge,
Hes no. 1o in the nba in offensive rebounding. Hes always been a good oreb guy. However, he sucks on the defensive end, for lack of sleep and a better word. He always has sucked as an defensive rebounder. He plays the most minutes of any of the big guys in Portland and consequently their defense is 24th in the league.
random Przayboinadfnilla thought,
He hasn’t played enough minutes to qualify for bball reference’s league leaders but he would be second(barely) behind camby in def rebound percentage.
Nick
January 8, 2009
Professor Berri,
For the most part, I’m into your analysis and it’s far better than what one would find on ESPN, but I’ve got a problem with this unlinked statement:
“…few expected Batum to make a significant contribution…”
followed by this linked statement:
“…the play of Oden and Fernandez during their rookie seasons is not unexpected…”
Why would you link to Doerr’s article for what he got correct (Fernandez and Oden), but not link for what he was entirely wrong about (Batum), especially when the statements are part of the same sentence?
This just seems a little intellectually dishonest, particularly when you consider that WS/WP does not have as much credibility in regard to projecting draft prospects, if for no other reason than its limited track record.
Michael
January 8, 2009
I agree. The rub on Batum wasn’t that he wouldn’t be productive, it was that he might have heart problems which could make him a high risk selection. I actually remember many articles calling him a ‘prototypical small forward’, and comparing him with Tayshaun Prince which would seem high praise indeed.
Although saying that, this isn’t an academic journal. There’s no need to reference every contentious point. Besides Berri’s statement was that ‘few’ expected Batum’s productivity to be this high, which is ambiguous enough to not warrant any supporting evidence. You could also reference the fact that Batum went 25th as evidence that at least 24 nba GM’s didn’t expect him to be that productive.
Jimbo
January 8, 2009
The way to get a very high Wins Produced Score = rebound, rebound, rebound! The national media may overstate the importance of scoring, but your formula definitely understates its importance…
Vince Gagliano
January 8, 2009
Darius Miles is two games away from wrecking havoc on the Blazers’ salary cap, which will stop them from…
dustin
January 8, 2009
More like WoW overvalues the importance of scoring efficiently.
Jacob Rosen
January 8, 2009
Do you think the Blazers are the fifth best team in the NBA right now? Sure they are a game and a half or so behind Denver in their own division, but there really is no better guess to who is #5 after the big four of Cleveland, Boston, LA Lakers and Orlando.
Dave, planning any epic response to the big-time showdown between Boston and Cleveland tomorrow night?
Italian Stallion
January 8, 2009
>More like WoW overvalues the importance of scoring efficiently.<
That’s a very curious phenomenon because I tend to agree with the idea that many fans, the media, and some statistical models overrate the inefficient high scorers, but I also tend the think the opposite problem could exist here.
I think one of the issues is that not all rebounds, assists, points etc.. are equal, but they are treated equally. Some are more fungible than others. Also, sometimes the lack of certain skills is not fully reflected on the player without them. It impacts teamates negatively instead, but it’s close to impossible to measure that and assign it properly.