Michael Jordan is the new owner of the Charlotte Bobcats. For those unfamiliar with Bobcat history, this is a team that has never made the playoffs and never posted a winning record. So this team is not exactly the jewel of the NBA. But it does look like NBA life in North Carolina is getting better (and not just because MJ is the team’s owner).
Today the Charlotte Bobcats are on the verge of a franchise record. With one more victory the 2009-10 team will have won more games in a regular season than any team in the history of Bobcat basketball.
The magic number for the Bobcats is only 36. So this team doesn’t even have to finish with a winning record to set the this mark. It does appear, though, that a winning record – and the first playoff berth in franchise history – is possible.
Last summer I argued that this outcome was indeed possible. But this forecast focused on the play of Tyson Chandler. Prior to this season the Bobcats had consisted of Gerald Wallace, Emeka Okafor, and not much else (hence the lack of success). Last year Okafor was sent to the Hornets (where he will miss the playoffs again) for Chandler. In 2008-09, Okafor was clearly the more productive player. It was a different story, though, before last season; and last summer I argued that if the Chandler from before 2008-09 appeared in Charlotte, the playoffs were possible.
Table One: The Charlotte Bobcats after 69 games in 2009-10
A glance at Table One, though, reveals that the Bobcats appear to have acquired the Chandler from 2008-09 (in fact, not even that much). Thus far he has only produced 0.7 wins, so clearly Chandler hasn’t helped.
When we look at what the Bobcats could have expected given the performance of the team’s veterans in 2008-09, we see a team that should currently be 31-38. In other words, last year’s performance indicates a team out of the playoffs again.
So how has this team improved? The team’s – somewhat modest – improvement can be linked primarily to the play of Wallace and Raymond Felton. The team is also getting more from Nazr Mohammed and Stephen Graham.
And now the team has added Tyrus Thomas. In just 408 minutes, Thomas has produced 1.5 wins with a 0.181 WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes]. If Thomas can finally start to live up to the promise of his college numbers, the Bobcats could make someone feel uncomfortable in the playoffs. Probably not so uncomfortable that a favorite gets an early vacation. But uncomfortable, nevertheless.
The addition of Thomas – assuming he keeps playing well– finally gives the Bobcats more than two above average players (the team now has Wallace, Felton, and Thomas). And if Chandler ever produces again, Charlotte might be able to contend in the East.
So it looks like Michael Jordan has bought himself a team on the rise. It isn’t anywhere close to as good as many of the Chicago teams that employed Jordan. But it’s starting to look like the teams Jordan and the Bulls used to defeat in the playoffs (and that’s better than being a team not in the playoffs).
– DJ
The WoW Journal Comments Policy
Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.
The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score
Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:
Simple Models of Player Performance
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.
Wages of Wins Journal 
brgulker
March 23, 2010
Nice touch, Dr. Berri.
On a related note, MJ wants to be like Mark Cuban: http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/14474/video-michael-jordan-says-hell-be-like-mark-cuban
dberri
March 23, 2010
I think this referred to Jordan wanting to yell on the sidelines. Can’t imagine MJ investing money in statistical consultants.
brgulker
March 23, 2010
Yes, you’re right. It’s more about a “hands-on” approach, which probably does mean yelling on the sidelines.
Tom Mandel
March 23, 2010
Isn’t the notion of hiring “statistical consultants” sort of the other side of the coin from the claim you support that people over-complicate their decision-making?
What do you need, numbers-wise, beyond box scores? Nothing it seems.
(Also — can you really imagine Michael attending lots of Bobcats games and yelling from his seat? I didn’t think so. I can’t either.)
Tom Mandel
March 23, 2010
A suggestion, Dave: set up “Search” so that it searches Comments as well as Posts. Doesn’t seem to do that at present.
Christian
March 23, 2010
What are your thoughts on Stephen Jackson? I was surprised that he didn’t post higher #s with your analysis.
Bannon
March 23, 2010
Tom, Jordan attends almost all Bobcats home games, and he’s fairly animated throughout. I don’t think, though, that he does a lot of “yelling”. More like “jawing”.
Italian Stallion
March 23, 2010
I’m still sick the Knicks didn’t get Tyrus Thomas for Al Harrington and a draft pick. Not only is he above average, he’s young and brings the exact skill set the Knicks need to the table.
I think Larry Brown has done a fine job. He has redeemed himself for the debacle in NY.
Evan
March 23, 2010
Hasn’t Jordan’s attendance at home games been a recent phenomenon?
So, if Chandler is really back from injury, the Bobcats could be pretty solid in the final burst of the season.
Xavier Q
March 24, 2010
Tom, I think hiring statistical consultants are exactly what teams need. Yes decision making is overly complicated, because there are so many things that affect outcomes. But I think the point Prof. Berri made was that you need to know what’s important to focus on, and what’s not. That’s where statistical consultants come in.
Christian, Stephen Jackson played on my Pacers for a couple of years. I can tell you this is not an anomoly, he’s a VERY streaky shooter who can get hot and get 30pts, but he’s never going to be very efficient. He does bring defense and intensity to the table, but as we all know those things are hard to measure.
khandor
March 24, 2010
————————————–
re: “I think Larry Brown has done a fine job. He has redeemed himself for the debacle in NY.” – IS
————————————–
————————————–
re: “Tom, I think hiring statistical consultants are exactly what teams need. Yes decision making is overly complicated, because there are so many things that affect outcomes. But I think the point Prof. Berri made was that you need to know what’s important to focus on, and what’s not. That’s where statistical consultants come in.” – Xavier Q
————————————–
Actually …
When GM’s hire top notch coaches … who truly understand how the game actually works … and then support them properly by making sound personnel decisions which are congruent with this coach’s thinking, there’s no need to for these GM’s to hire statisticians [although it certainly wouldn’t hinder the work of an authentically first-class coach, either].
It’s when GM’s [who don’t really what they’re doing] fail to hire top notch coaches … who truly understand how the game actually works … that there’s a legitimate need, however, for these specific GM’s to then hire statisticians to assist their teams.
Over the course of the last 18-24 months, Rod Higgins has done a much better job as the Bobcats GM:
* Hiring Larry Brown [his most important decision, by a wide margin]
* Retaining Gerald Wallace [multi-purpose, SF]
* Retaining Nazr Mohammed [Reb & Def, C]
* Drafting DJ Augustin [multi-purpose, PG]
* Drafting Alexis Ajinca [R eb & Def, C]
* Trading for Boris Diaw [multi-purpose, PF]
* Trading for DeSagana Diop [Reb & Def, C]
* Trading for Tyson Chandler [Reb & Def, C]
* Drafting Gerald Henderson [multi-purpose, OG-SF]
* Drafting Derrick Brown [multi-purpose, SF-PF]
* Retaining Raymond Felton [multi-purpose, PG]
* Signing Stephen Graham [Reb & Def, OG-SF]
* Trading for Stephen Jackson [multi-purpose, SF-OG-PF]
* Trading for Tyrus Thomas [Reb & Def, PF]
* Signing Theo Ratliff [Reb & Def, C]
and the improved results have begun to speak for themselves.
The fact is …
i. Superior Coaching; plus,
ii. Superior Team Rebounding; plus,
ii. Superior Team Defense; plus,
iv. Adequate-to-superior Team Offense;
is capable of taking any team a long way in the NBA.
KC
March 24, 2010
The Steven Jackson story is pretty interesting. His WP48 numbers with the Warriors was awful. I guess that had to do with him playing a lot of PF there. He was definitely asked to take a lot of shots and generate a lot of offence for the W’s that killed his efficiency.
Nice to see his escape from Golden State misery is working out for him. Monte and Andres are next up — assuming the new ownership @GS doesn’t totally change the picture.
todd2
March 24, 2010
Daryl Morey’s a quant and he’s done a pretty good job with the Rockets.
Dannie
March 24, 2010
“Over the course of the last 18-24 months, Rod Higgins has done a much better job as the Bobcats GM:”
MJ hired Larry Brown. Jordan is the only reason Brown is there. Credit where credit is due.
The Bobcats drafting has been nothing short of horrible. With that said I don’t think that is 100% anyone’s fault, more so a combination and power struggle between who Brown wants to draft (his track record in this area is not exactly pristine) and how Higgins/Jordan want to draft.
All their picks are well below average players and worse still that there were much better options available at their draft positions.
D.J. Augustin over Brook Lopez, Bayless, Robin Lopez, J.J. Hickson, Courtney Lee etc. etc.
Alexis Ajinca over Courtney Lee, Ryan Anderson, George Hill, Luc Mbah a Moute, Mario Chalmers etc. etc.
Gerald Henderson over Ty Lawson, Jrue Holiday, Darren Collison, Dujuan Blair, Taj Gibson, Toney Douglass etc. etc.
Those draft choices impact the other signings and have cap ramifications as well.
Alvy
March 24, 2010
Will there be a similar post for the Record Setting Thunder?
khandor
March 24, 2010
Dannie,
1. No problem, whatsoever, giving due credit to MJ for his actual role in the hiring of a top notch NBA coach.
2. Although others are certainly free to find fault with the players that the Bobcats have drafted in the last 2 years, relative to the early returns on the other options who were also available, it is simple folly [and illogical] to think that any other combination of draft selections “would” necessarily have resulted in Charlotte being in a better position than the franchise is today, in regard to Wins and Losses amassed this season and their prospects for the playoffs this year and during the immediate future.
As difficult as it may seem for some to grasp … real life basketball simply does not operate in the same way as a fantasy/rotisserie league.
3. Basketball is a “team” game and the fact is … THIS specific combination of players, and coaches, etc., is THE mix which has put the Bobcats on the doorstep of making the playoffs for the 1st time in their brief history.
dberri
March 24, 2010
As I read Khandor I am reminded of the comment policy (part of which reads as follows):
Our goal is to provide an interesting and pleasant environment that can help inform readers. To do that, we’ll occasionally have to exercise our editorial discretion. Think of this as an in-person discussion group, where having different voices is critical to a great conversation — but where sometimes the leader has to deal with cranks who sour the conversation more than they enliven it.
Naturally, there’s always a risk that this discretion will be used erroneously, no matter how well-intentioned the editor. But discussion groups (especially on the Internet, but also off it) generally need an editor who’ll occasionally make such judgments.
And, remember, it’s a big Internet. If you think we were mistaken in removing your post (or, in extreme cases, in removing you) — or if you prefer a more free-for-all approach — there are surely plenty of ways you can still get your views out.
So here is my question… have we passed the point where Khandor is adding to the conversation? I have no problem with people stating contrary opinions. But endless post after endless post where Khandor states his unsubstantiated view of the world… I think I am not the only one who is getting tired of these comments.
Robert O'Malley
March 24, 2010
Dave, I believe I made the same statement months ago. I’ve never seen someone with the talent to use so many words to say something completely meaningless. Usually his comments are as lengthy as the rest of the comments combined. I’ve said this before, he has his own blog! He should use it. He’s easily the most annoying regular responder on this blog.
dberri
March 24, 2010
Robert,
If possible I would like to avoid actually acting like an editor (for one thing, who has the time?). So I probably let things go longer than I should. But I have tried speaking to Khanor repeatedly and he just doesn’t get it (or doesn’t care). Therefore, unless someone (besides Khandor) thinks he needs to keep commenting, I think it is time I act like an editor.
Robert O'Malley
March 24, 2010
I’m not saying you should do anything. It’s your blog, I am a proponent of doing whatever you want. I just wanted to respond to you, so that you would know others find him annoying as well. I just find it absurd that he posts virtual full-sized blog posts on here when he has his own forum to post his thoughts.
John Giagnorio
March 25, 2010
I think you should block khandor as well; if people are interested in what he has to say, he’s linked his blog so often that his thoughts should be easy to find :)
John Giagnorio
March 25, 2010
Also, since I’m not sure people are still reading the “Using Sports to Paint…” thread…
khandor posted a long rant about what “we can learn” from Bill Russell’s career. I checked Russell’s career stats, and his rebounds per game are very, very high. I’d always heard that the game was played much faster (many more possessions per game) back then. Is this the explanation for his high rebounding numbers – more opportunities – or is it something else? I have a hard time believing he’s truly 5-6 rebounds per game better than today’s top guys.
Robert O'Malley
March 25, 2010
To my point, Khandor, you have used 536 words in two comments. In these comments the most substantial point you’re trying to get across is that the Bobcats are winning more because they changed their roster (not getting specific, LISTING EVERY CHANGE in two years). Concluding that the Bobcats have assembled a roster, and said roster is responsible for the results (Wins/Losses) they produce. Groundbreaking analysis.
Michael
March 25, 2010
“So here is my question… have we passed the point where Khandor is adding to the conversation?”
Unequivocally yes.
Michael
March 25, 2010
“khandor posted a long rant about what “we can learn” from Bill Russell’s career. I checked Russell’s career stats, and his rebounds per game are very, very high. I’d always heard that the game was played much faster (many more possessions per game) back then. Is this the explanation for his high rebounding numbers – more opportunities – or is it something else?”
I could be wrong, but combined with the very high pace were very low shooting percentages by today’s standards. That explains both the high rebounding numbers of a lot of players, plus how an all time great center could have a career 0.44 fg%.
Evan
March 25, 2010
I think I posted a long time ago that if I were moderator, I’d bring the ban hammer down on khandor.
i have no problem with dissenting voices, but khandor just consistently adds nothing to the discussion.
todd2
March 25, 2010
a lot of noise but little substance, and “folly,” and “difficult…for some to grasp,” are mildly offensive.
todd2
March 25, 2010
1 block, 4 points and 9 rebounds for Ty Chandler in 22 minutes last nite. Not bad. Off topic: I looked up team salaries and Indiana and Minnesota are in the top five?
reservoirgod
March 25, 2010
I could see banning khandor if they were posting spam or offensive material but not for posting long comments no one wants to read. I just ignore khandor’s comments & don’t read any of them. I say let khandor live.
simon
March 25, 2010
It’s up to dberri to decide to do whatever he likes, but I agree with reservoirgod.
Matt Walters
March 25, 2010
As much as I loathe khandor’s every comment, I think that the other commenters here do such a good job of shooting down everything he says that it’s actually a valuable service to people who don’t read the blog on the regular basis. Even though no one will ever change khandor’s mind, I’d guess that the conversation is a net positive for WoW and its readers.
Phil
March 25, 2010
I’ve always thought as this blog, and the comment section, as a way not just to discuss basketball, but to discuss basketball as it relates to the wages of wins metrics, including criticisms of the metric itself. Personally, I find commenters who don’t address the WoW metrics at all to be a hindrance, especially those that clearly have no inclination to do otherwise.
So yes, I do believe that it has passed the point where Khandor is adding to the discussion.
Joe
March 25, 2010
I’m not sure a banning is necessary.
I do typically get annoyed when someone rants about nothing, though.
Italian Stallion
March 25, 2010
Since I am probably 2nd on the list of “most likely to get banned”, I vote for not banning him. :)
Basically, he believes that you can’t build a successful team by looking at comprehensive measures of a players stats like Wins Produced, PER etc….
He believes it also requires a more subjective analysis of individual player skill sets with the goal of putting together players that compliment each other and maximize the results of the group.
I think the proof of his assertion is the well accepted but extreme example that you can’t build a successful team with all great PGs or all great Cs.
Whether that extends to more marginal situations and whether most GMs and Coaches are already so good at that, it doesn’t matter is another issue.
I think the proof of his own ability to identify good and bad moves this way can only be measured by looking at his success and failure at predicting these thing before we get to measure the results.
In any event, I don’t see why any of this is not taken as a positive contribution other than the risk he might be right and very good at it.
SlimeBucket
March 25, 2010
Please ban him. First time posting just to see him go; you have been like the Virgin Mary in your patience.
Evan
March 25, 2010
I’m all for making fun of you, IS, but at least you occasionally try to back your arguments up.
jbrett
March 27, 2010
Wow, I leave for a few days and the world tilts on its axis.
I’ve made my position on khandor quite clear; if you choose to ban him, I won’t lose any sleep. I’ve made my own decision, to ignore him entirely; the only advantage a ban would have for me is it would be easier to work my way through comments without having to scroll past his four-page diatribes (and demands that others supply definitions of words like ‘good,’ ‘better’, and ‘is’), and all the responses of those who have yet to lose hope that he will ever come to the party we’re having.
I’m satisfied he will never play well with others, nor willingly take his ball and go home; either way, I choose not to care. The only question for me is whether or not he clogs up the discourse; I think he does, but I don’t know if it’s a mortal sin.