Carmelo Anthony clearly wants to leave Denver.
Okay, when I started writing this story, this seemed clear. Now we hear that Carmelo Anthony might stay in Denver. And if that happens, this story doesn’t work as well. So let me proceed as if I never saw Melo say he “would take a real hard look” at staying in Denver.
Okay, Melo wants to leave. And one suspects this is because Carmelo doesn’t think he can win a title with his current teammates in Denver. But what if he had LeBron’s teammates? In other words, what if the Denver Nuggets could send their entire roster to Miami – except Melo – for everyone with the Heat not named LeBron?
One might think such a move would mean Melo and the Heat’s current roster (minus LeBron) would be a title contender. And therefore, Melo would want to stay in Denver.
It turns out, though, that even if this move was possible, I think Carmelo would be ultimately disappointed.
Melo with the Nuggets
To see this point, let’s start with what where the Nuggets stands after 52 games this season. The team has won 30 games; and the team’s efficiency differential (offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency) of 3.0 is consistent with a team that will win about 49 games across an entire season. Yes, this is a good team. But not exactly a title contender.
When we move from efficiency differential to Wins Produced – reported below – we can see who is primarily responsible for Denver’s success this season.
As one can see, Carmelo is an above average player (average WP48 or Wins Produced per 48 minutes is 0.100). But in terms of Wins Produced, Nene Hilario, Aaron Afflalo, and Chauncey Billups have been more productive this season. Although these teammates have been “good”, their collective WP48 of 0.117 (i.e. the team’s WP48 without Carmelo) is not good enough to transform the Nuggets with Carmelo Anthony into a title contender.
Melo with the Heat
But what if Carmelo got to play with Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, and everyone in Miami not named LeBron? To answer this question, let’s look at the Miami Heat after 52 games.
Miami has won 38 games this season and their efficiency differential stands at 8.4. This mark is consistent with a team that would win about 63 games across an 82 game season (and that is a bit of understatement about the team’s quality since they have suffered some injuries).
When we turn to Wins Produced – reported below – we can see which Miami players are producing these wins.
Not surprisingly, LeBron is the most productive player in Miami. But King James is not a one-man team. Dwayne Wade, Chris Bosh, James Jones, Mike Miller, Eddie House, and Udonis Haslem are all above average players. Although LeBron has a number of good teammates, his teammates are not much better than Melo’s teammates. Collectively LeBron’s teammates have posted a 0.116 WP48. Yes, LeBron’s teammates are slightly worse (okay, not statistically different) than the teammates currently playing with Carmelo. And that suggests that if Melo and LeBron switched teammates, LeBron would still be playing for a title contender. And Carmelo would still be disenchanted with Denver.
The Point of the Story
Obviously this trade was purely hypothetical. Although hypothetical scenarios can be interesting, one would hope such an exercise would have some purpose. And here is what I think is the point of this story.
Carmelo wants a trade so he can contend for a title. And he thinks if he had better teammates this would happen. But the problem in Denver isn’t Carmelo’s teammates. It really is Carmelo. Right now – before he signs any extension — Anthony is the highest paid in Denver. He is clearly the player Denver has built around. But although Carmelo has been given productive teammates, his team is still not contending.
The explanation for this is simple. Carmelo Anthony is simply not that productive of a player. Yes he can score. But his overall production – as noted several times – is not consistent with his reputation. So no matter where Melo plays, unless he gets some teammates that are even better than LeBron’s mates in Miami (and these are pretty good teammates), Melo is going to be disappointed.
– DJ
Wages of Wins Journal 
EntityAbyss
February 9, 2011
If only Chris Paul had denver’s roster minus anthony.
Andrew
February 9, 2011
Interesting would be where the Lakers would stand if not for the will to win that Kobe has instilled in them along with his own killer instinct.
EntityAbyss
February 9, 2011
Just a thought on will to win. I’d guess that will to win would get you wins in lots of close games, which wouldn’t be by much (because it’s coming down to the wire), and therefore the lakers actual win total would be much bigger than their efficiency differential. That’s not the case, nor has it ever been so…
kevin
February 10, 2011
I think the will to win would morph into the will to kill when Melo took more than Kobe’s liking of the available shots.
Italian Stallion
February 10, 2011
I’m not so sure the issue is purely a will to win (though anyone that watched the Knicks last night knows that the will to win IS a factor in sports).
It’s the ability to execute at an equal or higher level when the pressure is highest and your opponent not only refuses to lay down, he steps up to a higher level and keeps fighting back. That’s when a player’s heart is tested and you separate winners from losers.
Though once you make it late into the NBA playoffs and get some seasoning, most of these guys are already battled tested and fierce competitors. So it mostly comes down to who has the better team.
Italian Stallion
February 10, 2011
Back to the topic at hand, it’s hard to believe what’s going on in NY.
The fans, media, radio show hosts etc… are all clamoring for Melo ASAP.
I’m not even as down on Melo’s value as this model suggests, but it’s getting to the point that I can’t read any articles, Knicks blogs (other than knickerblogger), listen to any sports call in shows etc… because I think virtually everyone is totally clueless about Melo’s actual value and what kind of trade makes sense for the Knicks.
Nerd Numbers
February 10, 2011
IS,
Mike and Mike made a good point this morning. If Melo really wants NY his best bet is to just wait out the end of the season and sign. That way they keep all of their assets. Honestly (unfortunately) he helps if he does this. If he plays PF sure Amare is out of place C but you get Chandler/Gallinari at SF, Fields at SG and Felton at G. In short you now have only one out of position player as opposed to 2 and Melo when used right is actually a decent 4.
To do that he’d have to take a pay cut (unless Denver does s + t) and Wins are worth more in NY so Melo’s lower than star production would be less of a problem. Essentially Fields + Felton would subsidize Amare + Melo. It seems like Melo knows this as he is feeding a line that if the deadline passes he may consider an extension. . . .(I call BS)
Italian Stallion
February 10, 2011
Nerd,
I agree, but I think if they bring in Melo in the off season they can’t also resign Chandler. He’s a FA. I have always been a Chandler fan because of his versatility and upside. I think he was playing some decent versatile ball until he got hurt and all the Melo rumors starting swirling (he doe not want to leave). However, Melo is clearly an upgrade. So if that’s the cost I’m for it.
But when people start talking about Chandler + either Gallo/Fields and sending Anthony Randolph to the T-Wolves for a first rounder, I think that would be preposterously short term thinking and a horrible long term deal.
People are so hypnotized by Melo’s 25 points per game they don’t understand its true value and they seemingly have no comprehension what some of these kids are capable of contributing long term and how well they fit now. They just don’t get it. uggh
Tommy_Grand
February 10, 2011
I thought Carmello was going to the lakers….
Kent
February 12, 2011