The big news in the NBA this week is that Isiah Thomas has passed his test. Observers – such as Jonathan Weiler of the Sports Media Review – wonder about the grading criteria of James Dolan (Isiah’s boss).
Let’s review some basic facts about this team.
- The payroll, according to SI.com, is currently $117 million, which easily ranks first in the league (Dallas is #2 with a payroll of $91 million).
- The Knicks have a record of 29-34, which currently ranks 16th in the NBA.
- Since Thomas took over this team as general manager, the team has won 114 and lost 167 games, for a winning percentage of 0.406. This translates into 33 wins per season.
- The Knicks won only 23 games last year, so the team is on pace to improve by 15 games this season.
- With an improbable win over the Wizards on Saturday, the Knicks currently hold the very last playoff spot in the weak Eastern Conference.
Given this record, should Thomas have been given an extension?
The Curry Argument
In reading over the coverage of this story, the pro argument has focused on the team’s improvement this season. Much of this story has focused on the improved play of Eddy Curry, who has increased his per game scoring from 13.6 last season to 19.3 in 2006-07. What has not been emphasized is that Curry has also increased his playing time from 26 to 35 minutes per contest. In other words, part of Curry’s increased scoring per game is a function of Thomas just playing Curry more minutes. In fact, although Curry is scoring more per minute in 2006-07, had his minutes not changed his per game scoring average would have only increased to 14.3. Let me emphasize this point. If Thomas had not increased Curry’s minutes, his per game scoring would have only increased by 0.7 points.
Okay, Curry hasn’t really improved as a scorer. What about the rest of his game? A few weeks ago I posted an extensive comment of the “star power” of Eddy Curry. In this comment I offered a summary of Curry’s career productivity. The following table updates this analysis.
Table One: Eddy Curry’s Career
As one can see, relative to 2005-06, Curry is doing worse with respect to rebounds, steals, blocked shots, and turnovers. He is better with respect to scoring and assists, but the overall picture – which Win Score per minute captures – tells us that Curry is actually a worse player this year than he was last year under Brown. And it is important to emphasize, Curry was a below average center last year (a status he has held throughout his career).
In sum, Curry has not actually improved. His improved scoring average – which gives people the illusion that Curry is better — is primarily a function of Thomas playing Curry more minutes.
How the Knicks Improved
The Knicks record does suggest that this team has improved. When we look at the player’ s Wins Produced after 63 games, we can see where the improvement has taken place.
Table Two: The Knicks after 63 games
The key player is David Lee, who has produced 14.0 wins. Lee’s Wins Produced per 48 minutes (WP48) in 2005-06 stood at 0.197. Had he maintained this performance his sophomore season he would have produced only 7.0 wins in 2006-07, and the Knicks would only be on pace to win 27 games. In other words, as I have argued previously, Lee’s improved play explains much of this team’s progress.
Although Lee has taken tremendous strides this year, other players have also contributed. Like Lee, Quentin Richardson has also improved. In addition, Renaldo Balkman – the much maligned first round draft choice of the Knicks in 2006 – has posted a WP48 of 0.215 (average is 0.100). The combination of Lee, Richardson, and Balkman has produced 23.6 wins. These three players are being paid a combined salary that is less than $10 million this year. The remainder of the team, who obviously take up the vast majority of the team’s payroll, have produced less than five victories.
Can the Knicks make the Playoffs?
The loss of Lee would seem to doom any chance the Knicks have of holding on to their playoff invitation. In fact, this might be why Thomas had to get the extension now. Dolan seems to want to keep Thomas. If that is the case, now is the time to give the extension. If Dolan would have waited he would have had to explain why he is extending the contract of a man who was given the league’s largest payroll and couldn’t even make the post-season.
Of course, just because Lee is gone it does not mean this team has no hope. Steve Francis is suddenly healthy (strange how the injury to Crawford made Francis feel better). And Francis is an upgrade over Crawford. Thomas also has an excuse to play Balkman more minutes, which he has done in two of the last three games. If the Knicks get production from Francis and Balkman, the loss of Lee will be somewhat mitigated.
Still, as Chris Sheridan at ESPN.com has noted, the Knicks remaining schedule is difficult. New York still has to play Dallas twice, as well as multiple games against Toronto and Cleveland. The Knicks also play both the Pistons and Bulls on back-to-back nights in April. With such a schedule it seems unlikely, even if Lee had stayed healthy, that the Knicks could make the playoffs.
Of course, Thomas doesn’t have to worry about this anymore. He has been given his extension. And if he can figure out a way to give Curry even more minutes, he can continue with the illusion that he is developing Curry into one of the game’s dominant centers.
– DJ
Charles
March 13, 2007
While these stats are useful, they do not tell the whole story. Unlike last year, Eddy Curry is often doubled-teamed and even triple-teamed this year. Many teams are starting to resort to this tactic even before a pass is thrown to him. This often opens up lanes for other players and begins the start of ball movement that reaches an open man — even if Eddy doesn’t even touch the ball. Even without garnering assists Eddy has a role in breaking down defenses and as a result you are starting to see more open look jumpshots from Marbury and Q. Even with the same per minute scoring average, any player who ascends to the level of garnering double-teams makes all of his teamates better. If Eddy Curry hasn’t actually improved, then opposing coaches would play him the exact same way they did last year… but they don’t. And that should tell us what we need to know about his improvement.
eric
March 13, 2007
Regarding per-minute averages: I remember guys like Jim McIlvaine and Chris Dudley who, early in their careers, blocked a lot of shots and grabbed a lot of rebounds in limited action.
Both players received big free-agent contracts based on per-minute averages, but neither player lived up to their weighty contracts.
Before signing those contracts, both players could afford to be extra aggressive with regard to blocking shots and rebounding in particular, and didn’t really have to worry about fouls, knowing they were playing limited minutes.
But when you sign a big contract, you are expected to play starters’ minutes and increase your production. Neither player really did that.
The lesson I took from those instances is you can’t extrapolate stats based strictly on a per-minute basis. So I give Curry some credit for at least maintaining his rate of scoring, while I acknowlege his other stats may have taken a dip.
And I now realize that Curry may not have much to do with the Knicks’ improved record.
I read this site every day. Thank you for your insights.
TJ
March 13, 2007
Excellent points everyone. Isaiah has improved the team’s “team play” and shown that some of his draft picks were indeed wise. He looks like a genius for “stealing” David Lee and Renaldo Balkman may have a chance to truly shine these next 5 weeks. Don’t forget Curry’s limited minutes last year were not because coach Brown didn’t play him, but because he was so immature and couldn’t stay out of foul trouble. This is Isaiah’s influence and I didn’t see anyone comment that Eddie has controlled his foul-prone defensive habits under Isaiah’s watch (and/or his staff’s). IF Quentin Richardson returns and IF David Lee returns, even for the last 2 weeks to play NJ Nets, then the Knicks will make the playoffs!
The Franchise
March 14, 2007
However, Isiah the GM still tries to sabotoge Isiah the coach, as was evident in the (unsuccessful) attempt to trade David Lee away.
For the final two Eastern Conference spots:
NJ, Indy, and NY are tied. Orlando is a game back. More distantly, Atlanta is four back, and Philly is at 4.5.
Philly and Orlando, as presently constituted, seem to be the best pair. Philly is behind, though, and Orlando has been struggling. (Which may or may not continue.) NJ has the best player of the bunch. I think that the two teams that qualify will most likely be two of these three.
David Lee had better return post haste if the Knicks are to prove me wrong.
In any case, that’s a lot of teams to be chasing only two spots.
Mark T
March 14, 2007
I usually agree wholeheartedly with the author of this blog, but, even though I am not a Knicks fan, I think one has to credit Isiah for selecting Lee and Balkman, both of whom were characterized as reaches or sleepers. And just getting Curry to increase his minutes is a victory in itself. Finally, you do have to credit Charles’s observation that Curry is doubleteamed frequently and is making his teammates better on offense because of it, even though it does not show up in the box score or the Winscore, which is a limitation of the model. It is also worth noting that Lee has the best plus minus on the team by more than five points! What a player!
Jaqdavisone
March 14, 2007
It is also key to add how many columinst and bloggers hate Isaih Thomas. If you talk about his win/loss record as GM you would have to consider the stiffs he inherited from the Layden regime and how soon people forget that just a few short years ago our starting center was 6ft9 Kurt Thomas. I am a knick fan and have been my entire adult life and I would just like to add I love what Isaih has done for this team, yeah we’re up and down this year but these are the hurdles we were suppose to encounter last year but we all know LB tanked the season because he wanted Isaihs job. If we make the playoffs or not this was a successful campaign to build on and I fully expect next year for the knicks to come out swingin and start the year off in much better fashion then this year.
Owen
March 14, 2007
I cant really credit the Knicks success to Curry getting double – teamed. He is such a bad passer and commits so many turnovers that it’s a no risk situation for the other team. Double-teaming Curry, with his .25 assist to turnover ratio, is one of the best bets you can make on a basketball court.
And as the author of the Newsday article discussed, it very much seems like Lee helps Curry, rather than the other way around.
Glenn
March 14, 2007
Wouldn’t it just be easier to say “Knicks Suck”? I look forward to other informative pieces like “Mt Everest Is Tall” and “The Yankees and Red Sox Don’t Like Each Other”. What groundbreaking work!
Dolan ruined hockey too. Anyone who bothers to do an expose on the Knicks, citing cockamamie stats like WP48, would be foolish not to point out the larger picture of Dolan’s impact on NY sports. He is pretty much responsible for the hockey lockout by ballooning the Rangers payroll so far out of whack with the rest of the league that the sport needed to course correct. He signed over-the-hill, bloated contract players, only that time on skates. At least he’s consistent.
Dolan also muzzled all employees from bad-mouthing either franchise (aka why Brown is gone and Thomas remains). To do analysis on the state of the Knicks and not bring up those two points is lacking at best.
Matthew Dalton
March 14, 2007
So you give Curry no credit for maintaining his scoring efficiency while shooting more and playing more minutes? That seems unreasonable.
The Franchise
March 14, 2007
Frankly, I’m amazed by how low the expectations of Knicks fans have become. Five games below .500 ball and on track to barely miss the playoffs with the highest payroll in the league is good enough to offer a contract extension? Really?
Owen, I like your point about the decision to double Curry as often as possible. An inside player that is double-teamed often will have more turnovers, but they should also have more assists, since a teammate will be open.
And, Matthew, it is important to consider both a player’s WP48 as well as just the WP. A player that is a solid producer, but is often injured, or tires too quickly to play big minutes is obiviously less valuable than a similar level producer that is able to carry more of a load.
Owen
March 15, 2007
Omifrigginggod. I just saw the box score and read the transcript. Missed the game for a concert.
Unfriggingbelievable.
Whats that winscore on Eddy Curry?-4.5/40? Where is that vicodin? Give it to me! Now!
I feel a karmic sense of justice in the fact that I posted my comment about it being profitable to double team Curry and this happens. Apparently they doubled him all night, he never saw the ball, and when he did he turned it over. One assist! Six turnovers! I love life sometimes…
dberri
March 15, 2007
Owen,
He had another game where his rebounds matched his turnovers.
I see you are fighting the good fight at Knickerblogger. It is interesting that Knicks fans would defend Thomas, Curry, etc… If the Yankees won less than half their games, would Yankees fans defend the team?
Owen
March 15, 2007
Knicks fans right now are in the seventh circle of hell, being slowly roasted by Satans minions. I am the guy pointing out what they hadnt noticed. Demonic little cockroaches slowly feasting on their genitals.
Lol. Jack Mott, want to rewrite that joke?
Despite my chortling delight in my previous post, I actually get only marginal satisfaction from telling people things are actually much worse than they thought with our Knicks.
I thought perhaps the hypothetical I set up, “which Eastern Conference Center would you trade for Curry,” might spark an interesting conversation. But it got too convuluted. That is really a hard way to win hearts and minds. People believe very strongly in there impressions, and the difference in stats between players dont appear to be all that stark I think to most people.
The difference between a great player and a horrible player is really kind of murky. Honestly, think about Duncan and Curry. Duncan averages 20.1 points per game, shooting 54% from the field and 65% from the line. Curry averages 19.1 shooting 58% from the field and 60.4% from the line Pretty similar right. Duncan averages 10.7 rebounds, and Curry averages 7.1., but the Knicks have a good rebounding margin, so that doesnt hurt them Duncan has 185 turnovers. Curry has 213. Same same but same right? The numbers don’t look SO different. I mean Curry is only averaging a point less per game, and he shoots a higher percentage after all.
Of course somewhere hidden in those oh so inscrutable numbers is the difference between the best starting center in the NBA and the worst.
Its really just kind of hard to explain to people, you might actually be better off with a platoon of Haywood/Thomas. The fact that Haywood averages seven rebounds in 25 minutes while Curry averages 7.1 in 36, well that isnt a sexy fact. You are going to bring down Dick Cheney with that.
Can you imagine what would have happened to me on that board if I had admitted that the numbers show Nesterovic and Pachulia have also been more productive than Curry so far this year. You know things are bad when your stud up-and-comign 24 year old starting center is getting outproduced by a pimply seven footer from the wrong Georgia named Zaza….
People just cant wrap there heads around this idea that Curry is so bad he is actually in The Negative Zone, a concept I borrow from my family’s gambling lexicon. That actually should the title of a future post and something to explicate. What does it mean to be in the negative for Wins Produced. And which player in the Negative Zone plays the most and gets paid the most. I have to believe Eddy Curry is the answer to both questions.
Anyway, I will keep trying. In a way its good you haven’t convinced too many people. How much fun will your site be when everyone agrees with you?
One possible step forward in the WOW revolution? Does anyone have any pull at Yahoo.Someone needs to get them to create a Wages of Wins Fantasy Basketball League. Instead of matching players up on nine categories, you lock horns every week on the basis of win score per minute.
That might win you the crowd…
Morgan Amber
May 3, 2007
Just like in here…
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Lucian Bailee
May 5, 2007
American Dad would say “Superb”
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