For those thinking about the NBA free agent market, Arturo Galletti has created…
The 2010 NBA Free Agent Cheat Sheet
The sheet reports free agent status, age, and then performance in each of the past three seasons.
Something to keep in mind as you view this data. Performance before a player is 30 years of age is not tremendously impacted by age. Yes, there are small declines after a player hits his mid-20s. But the decline is very mild before the age of 30. Once you pass the age of 30, the impact of age is more pronounced. So if you sign a player who is already in his late 20s, you might anticipate production to decline noticeably towards the end of a multi-year contract.
Like everyone, I want to thank Arturo for putting all this together. This should help our discussion of free agent signings.
One last note… this morning we (at the Western Economic Association) are having our panel discussion on blogging about sports and economics. Hopefully I can post some thoughts on this discussion later today.
– DJ
Wages of Wins Journal 
arturogalletti
July 1, 2010
Prof,
Not a problem. You know that me and Andres do it out of Love & Fun. Speaking of Love looks like the Wolves are keeping him. If they can get something for Jefferson (Amare? Odom?) and fail at getting a Gay-Love combo together they might have something.
Sam Cohen
July 1, 2010
Very useful chart. And thanks for putting it together. But one piece of important missing information is the salary range (and the number of years) that each player is expected to command as a free agent. Without this information, it’s hard to figure out who teams can realistically pursue given their salary cap situation. After all, you can always sign players for more than the general market value, but I imagine it will be very hard to sign someone for less than their general market value (even if that is what WP tells us should be done).
For instance, one blog speculated that Mike Miller might be available for the mid-level exception. If that was true, he would be one of the best pick-ups of the off-season. (Note- this wasn’t an actual report that he was being offered the MLE, just someone’s speculation that he might be available for it.) Rudy Gay, on the other hand, seems to be in line for a new contact starting at $10+ Million/yr. So even if you would love to have him for $2.5M, you don’t really have that option.
Maybe if people see discussion of expected salary ranges for players in other publications they could post that information in this thread and then we could get it added to the chart.
Chicago Tim
July 1, 2010
So, it looks like Milwaukee made a good deal (five-year, $32 million contract) for Drew Gooden, right? But Atlanta is apparently about to make a bad deal (six years, $124.5 million) for Joe Johnson? I just want to make sure I’m reading the chart correctly.
arturogalletti
July 1, 2010
Sam,
I would be willing to add the data if it was provided.
arturogalletti
July 1, 2010
Chicago Tim,
You got it.
Drew Gooden : 28, Average value $7.22 mill (with bench minutes) projects to $36.1 mill at 5 years (more with more minutes). 4.1 million in upside so good deal
Joe Johnson : 28, Average value $11.91 mill (with bench minutes) projects to $71.46 mill at 6 years (assuming no injuries so risky). $53 million in downside at the minimum so this is at best a bad,bad,bad deal (at worst it’s worthy of a seat at the bad gm conference.
Dre
July 1, 2010
I was so excited to hear an analyst on Mike and Mike this morning say Joe Johnson and Chris Bosh were not worth max contracts and label only Lebron and Wade as deserving (he left out Boozer and Lee but hey injuries and NY makes anyone look bad).
He also pointed out GMs making the same mistakes and that they were just going to try the same strategies that have been failing. With that in mind, who wants to bet Bosh and Johnson are the first two to sign their max offers? (Johnson is apparently going to accept Hawks offer)
Chicago Tim
July 1, 2010
Dre
I would question giving even Wade a max deal considering his age and history of injuries. See the following link to a previous article on this subject by Prof. Berri.
Dre
July 1, 2010
Chicago Tim,
I’d agree with you. Of course part of the free agent signing is the contract you give the player. For example, Toronto giving Turk such a long contract at his age?
I would wager that Wade is probably worth a 3 year max contract. However we may end up with a similar situation to Shaq. You pay a good player lots of money, the first several years they make good on some/all of it and then they kill a team’s cap while coasting on their name.
Or you can be like Denver and pay a slightly above average player to a long term max deal and they spend most of it on the bench. Good times Martin, good times. . .
JoeHova
July 1, 2010
Maybe I missed a previous post on this subject but how was the value of a win calculated for this exercise? Was it just total NBA salary divided by total NBA wins? Or something else?
arturogalletti
July 1, 2010
Joe Hova,
Exactly that.
VH
July 1, 2010
Does anyone here actually think Lee is the second best free agent available? What is being done to counteract the “D’Antoni Factor”?
Joe
July 1, 2010
VH,
Lee was marginally better before D’Antoni was the coach if you check the spreadsheet.
VH
July 1, 2010
So then you do think he’s the second best free agent? People here need to spend less time looking at stats and more time watching games…
Dre
July 1, 2010
VH,
Going down a classic line. So help me out. I am a GM. Of course I want Lebron, and we all agree he is by far the BEST FA out there.
Being a realistic GM I try and target some other good targets. Dwayne Wade and Boozer people agree with. Please explain to me why Lee is a poor choice? Even with conventional methods he looks good. 20-10 big man, all-star, reasonable salary. What do you observe in games that changes this assessment? And more to the point, what makes the other free agents better options? Let’s not forget that Wade and Boozer have had injuries, which does impact their rating.
Shawn Ryan
July 1, 2010
Very nice reference Arturo, and good call hosting it on google docs. So much more useful than an image given the amount of data.
VH
July 1, 2010
I never said he is a poor choice. In fact, I think the since you can likely get him below a max deal, he is one of the best choices. I just refuse to accept the fact that David Lee helps my team win more than Dwayne Wade, Chris Bosh or Dirk Nowitski. He is definitely at the high end of the second tier of FAs.
VH
July 1, 2010
To further that point, according to this rating system, he will not just help your team more than any other player other than Lebron but he will help your team win TWICE as much as a player like Ray Allen. I would gladly take on two Ray Allens for my wing spots than one David Lee.
Chicago Tim
July 1, 2010
Milwaukee nears five-year, $39 million contract for Salmons. I would say it is a good deal, except that Salmons is 30 and may decline in value. Still, it looks like a fair deal based on the chart.
arturogalletti
July 1, 2010
VH,
His stats are highly correlated to wins, He’s a rebounding machine who’s an efficient scorer. Compare him to Gasol and you get more rebounds, less points (but scored more efficiently). Would Gasol be the 2nd best guy out there according to the public? Yes.
Edmond
July 1, 2010
Dre:
I think it has to do with how un-pretty Lee’s game is. He sort of hops or skips when he runs…his feet seem too small and his upper body and head seem too big to be adequately supported by his legs…
Boozer, on the other hand, looks super-cool when he dunks (I think it has to do with the extra second he always spends hanging on the rim).
I suppose a better argument could be made about Lee’s questionable defense, but are Boozer or Stoudemire really that much better? How about Bosh? Is his D so spectacular that it compensates for the lower production (he’s only a year younger)?
Chicago Tim
July 1, 2010
Minnesota has a verbal agreement for a four year, $20 million deal with Darko Milicic! Very bad deal. According to the chart, Darko should have to pay Minnesota to play. This supports the theory that high draft picks get higher salaries and more minutes throughout their career, despite bad results.
Shawn Ryan
July 1, 2010
VH-
You would take on two Ray Allen’s vs. one David Lee? Even though Allen is 191865 years old, while Lee is 26? Even while Allen makes over $18 million while Lee makes $7 million (of course these will change in free agency, but Ray Allen just went to the finals and set a finals record during one of the games, I don’t think that his salary is going to drop precipitously)?
If you’re making that deal, I’ve got a bridge for sale you might be interested in.
Alvy
July 1, 2010
VH,
Actually, David Lee is ranked higher because in 2008 Wade was injured and didn’t play an entire season, so Lee’s average is obviously going to be higher than Wade’s.
Also, experts like to note Lee’s poor defense, but I’ve really never seen Lee play. I still don’t understand how a GM would overlook a 20ppg and 10reb guy though.
Alvy
July 1, 2010
Edmond,
LOL hilarious. One of my friends once asked me how I felt about Rudy Gay joining the Clippers and I simply said that he looks cool playing basketball, and nothing else. Amar’e might be the cooler dunker though.
VH
July 1, 2010
First of all, if David Lee doesn’t make twice as much as Ray Allen next year I will be shocked. I expect Allen to sign a mid-level with a contender.
Secondly, none of the top big men are really strong defensive players (other than Yao Ming who I don’t really consider among the FAs). That has always been one of my problems with WoW. It claims to encompass everything on the court and yet strong defensive players are often underappreciated.
Thirdly, I do not see David Lee as an offensive focus on a good team. The Lakers can run their offense through Gasol, Tim Duncan, Dirk, Yao or potentially Cousins for that matter can all be the center piece of effective offenses.
Stop focusing on whether or not he is a good player. We all know he is a good player. I challenge any of you to admit you would rather your favorite team sign him over Dwayne Wade.
Shawn,
I didn’t realize WoW had the ability to predict the longevity of players careers. I probably don’t want Ray Allen 5 years from now more than I want David Lee 5 years from now but thats not what the stats are answering. They are saying right now Lee helps his team twice as much as Allen.
VH
July 1, 2010
Alvy, Lee’s WP48 is also higher than Wade’s, what am I missing?
Edmond
July 1, 2010
Wade was injured this year. He’s also 28. His career WP is better than Lee’s. Given that he’s a superb defender and a shooting guard, which is a position that is really hard to fill with a productive player, Wade is clearly the better choice, at least in the short term. After him though, I would unreservedly wish for Lee over all those other guys on the list.
robbieomalley
July 1, 2010
The reason people call Ray Allen “Jesus” is because they’re about the same age.
Chicago Tim
July 1, 2010
Channing Frye mulling over five-year, $25 million contract from the Suns. Bad deal for the Suns.
Alvy
July 1, 2010
Thank god, Rudy Gay is nearing a verbal agreement with Memphis on a 5-year 80 million deal.
Haha, this is the stupidest league in all American sports.
robbieomalley
July 1, 2010
VH,
David Lee looks better than average relative to Wade for two main reasons. One, Wade has been injured while Lee has been healthy. Two, Lee is a big man and it is easier for big men to look better than average than it is for guards. You have to consider standard deviation in this case. Wade would look better.
If we’re just looking at pure production, I don’t think anyone here would take Lee over Wade. When Wade is at his best, he is the best SG in the NBA.
But considering Lee might get paid half as much as Wade, possibly an argument can be made. There is a finite amount of money you can pay out to players in the NBA.
brgulker
July 1, 2010
Arturo,
Amazing work, thanks! As a Pistons fan, it’s not terribly relevant, because we wasted all our money last season.
But as an NBA fan, this is awesome info! It will be curious to see who overspends on the Bosh and Stoudamires and who gets a great bargain on the Mike Miller’s of the league. Fantastic!
marparker
July 1, 2010
VH,
Here’s what you are missing. DWade was not himself in 2008. In his peak season of the 3 he far outperformed David Lee. So, to answer your question noone is saying Dwade is not as good as David Lee. The table simply reports what happened the past 3 seasons. 3 years has not been shown to have any significance. It is a cherry picked number. If the chart showed 2 years, then Dwyane Wade would be the 2nd best free agent available.
Edmond
July 1, 2010
Alvy:
I don’t know, Boozer hangs and then sort of torques his body. Very aesthetically pleasing.
Shawn Ryan
July 1, 2010
robbieomalley – “The reason people call Ray Allen “Jesus” is because they’re about the same age.”
LOL
nerdnumbers
July 1, 2010
VH,
I had a long reply but rather than super cluttering the comments, I just put it as a blog post. People who like metrics other than WP48 should enjoy it too:
http://nerdnumbers.wordpress.com/2010/07/01/2010_big_free_agents/
robbieomalley
July 1, 2010
Also now that Johnson is maxed out, the Hawks don’t have the money to sign Josh Childress. He’d be a sneaky good pick up as well for a team.
VH
July 1, 2010
Why doesn’t WP include a variable for position since that is what everyone keeps refering to and it makes sense?
I don’t like the Wade was hurt arguement. He has yet to play 80 games in a season and has had multiple major injuries. Its pretty safe to assume he will not stay healthy through an entire contract. That being said I would still take a 2-way clutch player who is arguably the best at his position, who has shown he makes his teammates better, in his prime than a one dimensional, poor defensive guy who doesnt make players around him better.
Does anyone think its significant that none of the top free agent big men are considered good defensively?
Alvy
July 1, 2010
What did you guys do, read VH’s 2nd comment ten times over? lol
Anyway, Hawks are offering a max to Joe Johnson. I don’t understand anything anymore.
Shawn Ryan
July 1, 2010
-VH
Ray Allen will be 31 next month. You might not be aware of the age discussion that is common on the Wages of Wins, but it is in fact a factor that has been studied.
When considered in aggregate, player production begins falling precipitously after the age of 30. Not all players decline at 30, but given the fact that Allen’s production fell over 30% this last year (after he turned 30) vs. the year before, it’s hard to make a case that he will be worth a salary that he gets based on his current production.
By the way, there is no way Ray Allen will only be offered the veterans minimum. He’s 31 and one of the most revered scorers in the league. He’ll get $10Mil+ offers, and won’t be worth it.
Alvy
July 1, 2010
“Does anyone think its significant that none of the top free agent big men are considered good defensively?”
You would think after watching the Lakers and Celtics’ playoff run how important big defensive men are (Bynum and KG), but I don’t think GM care if Bosh can cover another big.
By the way, if Bosh went to Chicago or Houston, would his production increase as he would finally be playing in his natural position?
Chicago Tim
July 1, 2010
Alvi — I agree that so far there are multiple contenders for the bad GM conference. Milwaukee seems unusually sane.
robbieomalley
July 1, 2010
Shawn,
What? Ray Allen turns 35 next month, not 31.
arturogalletti
July 1, 2010
Edmond,
Two words: Selection Bias.
Chicago Tim,
Sheesh! So we could see Darko-Gay-Love in Minny?
Rob/Marparker,
Durability is a skill. That’s why Lee get’s more love than Wade. Giving Money to Wade is a riskier proposition based on available data than giving it to Lee.
marparker
July 1, 2010
I don’t know. I would rather have the guy with the higher peak. While regular season wins are great I would rather have the best of the best for the playoffs.
Dwade has one season at .138. It might be foolish to consider that even if he was injured. We can say with a pretty good amount of confidence that Dwade is a near .3 player.
Shawn Ryan
July 1, 2010
Robbie
Wow… yeah…
Can’t believe I got that far.
Some how I was on Rashard Lewis’s Basketball-reference page, and got HIS age. Not sure how I got all the way through the comment without catching it. Yeah… 35…
Shawn Ryan
July 1, 2010
So yeah, most of my argument stands, and is actually stronger, except probably the salary thing… I wouldn’t call Veterans minimum unlikely.
I can’t believe I didn’t realize I wasn’t looking at Ray Allen… **smacks forehead**
Edmond
July 1, 2010
arturo:
About Wade, or about the transcendent beauty of a Carlos Boozer dunk? Because the latter could never be quantified.
As to the former, I take back anything I may have said and wholeheartedly support Marparker’s analysis, with the disclaimer that a guy who plays half as many games is half as effective at producing wins. Let the buyer beware.
robbieomalley
July 1, 2010
I was really looking forward to a Gay-Johnson-Love-Sessions lineup in Minnesota.
Shawn Ryan
July 1, 2010
-Robbie
“I was really looking forward to a Gay-Johnson-Love-Sessions lineup in Minnesota.”
Wow.
You’ve gotta give Arturo credit for kicking off the comments with a zinger like that. I don’t know how many people noticed it, but the lack of acknowledgement is tragic.
robbieomalley
July 1, 2010
Oh, I noticed.
Chicago Tim
July 1, 2010
robbieomalley
Great point about Josh Childress! I had dismissed him because he was restricted.
Joe
July 1, 2010
My God. You people actually think David Lee, a total product of the D’Antoni system who plays NO DEFENSE WHATSOEVER – is better than Dwyane Wade.
Do you even realize how stupid you sound to anyone who knows anything meaningful about basketball?
arturogalletti
July 1, 2010
Marparker,
I’m not arguing Wade’s greatness. I’m just saying that his injury history and the lack of a lot of 34 year old SG worth max money would make me realize signing him to a max deal is higher risk than Lee. Upside is a dangerous card in the Free Agent market.
Robbie,
“I was really looking forward to a Gay-Johnson-Love-Sessions lineup in Minnesota.”
I tip my hat.
Edmond,
I was talking about Lee. Selection Bias means that Lee’s appearance does not jive with his results so we tend to dismiss him as a player. It’s much easier to make the WoW case for say DeJuan Blair (who every time I see him on the court reminds me of Moses Malone or Barkley with his crazy rebounding) than a big white guy like Lee (or Troy Murphy or Mike Miller or Kevin Love …..)
Michael
July 1, 2010
Rudy Gay is getting 80 million dollars!!
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=5346332
Chicago Tim
July 1, 2010
Joe — I don’t think anyone has said that Lee is better than Wade. I think we’ve said that Lee is a better risk for a long contract because he is younger and less prone to injuries, and that his worth is at least comparable to Wade’s. Nevertheless, it looks to me like some people here still think Wade is worth more money.
But we’re well aware that even comparing Lee to Wade sounds stupid to most basketball fans, players, and GMs. The premise of this site is that players like Lee have been undervalued during the entire history of the NBA, while scoring has been overvalued.
That premise clearly is not in sync with conventional wisdom. GMs who buy into it risk losing their jobs. Players who buy into it risk losing minutes and money. Fans who buy into it risk ridicule.
We are all aware of that and accept that. So if you want to persuade us that the premise is wrong, you’ll have to come up with a better argument than “you sound stupid.”
robbieomalley
July 1, 2010
Hey Joe,
It’s clear you disagree. Instead of claiming how wrong WoW is all the time, instead why don’t you make some predictions or claims of your own. Opening up a your own page is free and rather easy, provide the world your opinions for scrutiny by others. It’s really easy to sit back and say how wrong others without saying what is right.
Until then, tits or GTFO.
arturogalletti
July 1, 2010
QFT Rob QFT
brgulker
July 1, 2010
Joe,
In addition to skate others have said, why is it that Lee’s offense is a product of a system but his defense is not?
Kevin Ferrigan
July 1, 2010
So Rudy Gay got 5 years, $81.6 million. What an abject failure. A total disaster and yet, it’s not even the worst contract of the day. That honor goes to Joe Johnson getting (at age 29!) 6 years, $119 million from the Hawks. Goodness gracious.
NBA GMs never cease to amaze.
dberri
July 1, 2010
59 comments!!!
As Kevin Arnovitz learned this morning, there is no Internet access in some of the meeting rooms here at the hotel in Portland. So I have had no chance to read anything (and I am off to another meeting right now). Glad to see so much discussion, though.
Italian Stallion
July 1, 2010
Here’s an interesting situation that could actually happen.
Suppose Knicks management walks into a room with Lebron and makes the case that teaming him up with David Lee would be more productive than teaming him up with Amare, Bosh, Boozer, or Joe Johnson and also save a few dollars to add another role player.
He politely listens, but disagrees and says he’ll only come if…..
That could easily force the Knicks to consider overpaying for another player in order to land Lebron and it could still be a good move.
As ridiculously overpaid as Joe Johnson is about to become, I would pay him max money if it also landed me Lebron and consider it a good deal overall.
nerdnumbers
July 1, 2010
Italian,
That argument is excellent and very similar to Allen being overpaid in Boston. Garnett refused to go to Boston despite them having Pierce and Rondo. So Allen was an overpaid average player for 3 years, but brought Garnett with him. 10 playoff series, 3 50+ win seasons and a championship seems to have paid off.
Your argument holds sway with maybe 2-4 players; Bron, Wade, Lee and maybe Boozer. However the fear may be someone like Amare saying he’ll only sign if they sign Dirk to a lucrative contract. Walsh agrees and New York rejoices. . . right?
Alvy
July 1, 2010
Does anyone recall the pitch Daryl Morey made to Bosh? He said if Bosh joined the Rockets, they would be a 60+ win team and suggested Miami would only be a 45 win team because there would be a lack of a supporting cast. marparker suggested the Rockets could be a 60 win team next year assuming Ariza is back to his career wp/48 and Ming can actually stay healthy. Of course, if Bosh went to the Rockets, the team would probably not have Luis Scola and Brooks (I think it would be in a sign and trade). So, Bosh can be “the man” and be paid max money, just like he wants, if he goes to Houston.
chibi
July 1, 2010
great resource. appreciate the effort.
todd2
July 1, 2010
I’m looking forward to watching the Bucks next year. It would take some stones, but I think the Mavs should let Nowitzki walk.
marparker
July 1, 2010
Houston would be a great situation for Bosh. I believe he is from Texas so that might be an added bonus. All this free agency talk has really got my head spinning.
I’m a Wizards fan but go Kings!
arturogalletti
July 1, 2010
Yay,
We got some truehoop love.
http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/17492/thursday-bullets-177
arturogalletti
July 1, 2010
Just updated to add all completed deals as of midnight.
nerdnumbers
July 1, 2010
Arturo,
You get the Wall Street Journal and ESPN to both link us in one week? You’re gonna make us a respectable stats community yet :)
Congrats!
reservoirgod
July 2, 2010
Great point by Italian Stallion. And add Tyronn Lue to the Celtics’ “hidden costs” of KG – he’s one of his closest friends in the league & told him he should go to Boston. I’m not even sure he put on a uniform this season. I think he just sat on the bench in street clothes.
Chicago Tim
July 2, 2010
arturogalletti
I don’t understand what you updated. Please don’t remove free agents who sign deals. Can you just note that they have signed deals, and leave the numbers up there?
In fact, I would like to see the numbers of Kobe and other free agents who signed deals earlier this season, but I’m not complaining. Maybe before next season you could revisit the cheat sheet and add a column with the resulting contracts.
Thanks again. This is fun!
Chicago Tim
July 2, 2010
Toronto may not miss Bosh as much as people think. Amir Johnson is a stud and his five-year, $34-million contract looks like a great, great deal. Even if he doesn’t get starter minutes he’s worth it. But with Bosh gone maybe he’ll get starter’s minutes and deliver $23.18 million per year to the team for a contract worth less than $5 million a year! Of course, it’s not surprising that he is most known for his rebounding and defense.
Joe
July 2, 2010
Chicago Tim,
Amir will be a stud, when he is on the court. Coaches seem to be his biggest hurdle and of course his foul issues as well.
Shawn Ryan
July 2, 2010
Yay! The Nets signed Brian Zoubek!
Shawn Ryan
July 2, 2010
I hate seeing good players being ignored.
Chicago Tim
July 2, 2010
Joe,
Even if Amir fouls out every game, at that price he will still be worth it. And with Bosh gone, maybe his coaches will have to play him.
Actually, has anyone done studies on whether young players either learn not to foul or start to get the benefit of the doubt from refs? I know it is common wisdom that veterans either know how to avoid fouls or get better treatment from refs, but do the stats back that up?
coachbean
July 2, 2010
Richard Jefferson is opting out of the final year of his $15 million contract with the Spurs! Does anybody think he is worth anything more than the $5 million mid level exception at this point? Did he really just give up $10 million on a contending team when he is nearing the end of his career? I know there are some stupid GMs out there and this kind of summer exposes that, but there are plenty of stupid players as well.
Russell
July 2, 2010
I don’t really understand the NBA salary cap. I believe that you can’t figure out a team’s cap room simply by subtracting expiring contracts.
Could someone please answer:
1. How much cap room the Celtics have?
2. How much cap room the Celtics will have if they let Nate Robinson and Ray Allen walk?
3. How much they will have if they let those two and Pierce walk?
4. How much cap room the Spurs will have if they don’t resign Jefferson?
If you can figure it out, but it will take you lots of valuable time to do it, don’t bother. It’s not that important.
Also, does anyone think the Celtics should let Pierce and Allen go?
Chicago Tim
July 2, 2010
The Celtics should let Pierce and Allen go or pay them less than the market price. With Pierce, though, that would be very hard — he’s still a quality player, even if his skills are declining, and he’s spent his whole career with the Celtics. I don’t think the fans or the other players would understand. With Allen it still might happen, especially after he laid a couple of eggs in the Finals.
brgulker
July 2, 2010
Russell,
See here for Celtics: http://www.82games.com/0809/08CHI5.HTM
See here for Spurs: http://www.shamsports.com/content/pages/data/salaries/spurs.jsp
See here for a primer on the NBA Salary Cap (I’ve found the Wiki article to be accurate and about as simple as anything else): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Salary_Cap
brgulker
July 2, 2010
Whoops, old stuff on the clipboard. See HERE for Celtics: http://www.shamsports.com/content/pages/data/salaries/celtics.jsp
marparker
July 2, 2010
for salary cap info go to hoopshype
Here is the boston link
http://hoopshype.com/salaries/boston.htm
Michael
July 2, 2010
Pierce already re-upped. Looks like he’s a Celtic for life.
Michael
July 2, 2010
Looks like he saved them around 10 million next year too.
Shawn Ryan
July 2, 2010
IDK, the story line that Paul Pierce is somehow sacrificing himself by taking a mere $15.25M per year is shaky. Does anyone think that Pierce could command a max contract in free agency?
Opting out and taking less money per year was a long term financial decision. Not many players get long term contracts that extend to age 36. He’s cashing in on current success to ensure future financial security. The move was probably prompted by his accountant. It’s an insurance policy.
If he falls off this year in production and/or the Celtics don’t do well, who’s going to give him $40M to finish out the rest of his career? Nobody.
Michael
July 2, 2010
^True.
Looks like the Bucks are keeping Salmons too, according to Chad Ford anyway.
robbieomalley
July 2, 2010
[Comment From Wesley]
I know none of you “experts” picked Gay to stay in Memphis, how do you feel about the Grizz ponying up the money and sticking to their plan?
2:38
Chad Ford, ESPN Insider: I’m not as down on it as many are. Did they overpay? Sure. But if they didn’t, someone else would’ve and I think Gay was too valuable of an asset to let him just walk away. Let me put it another way, I would’ve been highly critical of the Grizzlies had they not matched his offer sheet. So it’s hard for me to criticize them for signing him. It’s a lot of money, but I would’ve done the same thing had I been running the Grizz.
So when I own the Wizards in 25 years, Chad Ford will not be on my short list for GMs. He’ll probably be pretty old by then anyway.
Chicago Tim
July 2, 2010
Suns make a bad deal for Frye but a good deal for Warrick.
robbieomalley
July 2, 2010
You know, if the Lakers sign Miller to the MLE, that would be the biggest move of the off season.
Would anyone be able to match a line up of Kobe, Odom, Gasol, Bynum, and Miller? Miller can almost certainly get more than the MLE though, so he might not take the offer.
arturogalletti
July 2, 2010
Dammit, I hate the fact that the Lakers know what they’re doing.
nerdnumbers
July 2, 2010
Aturo,
As great as the Lakers have been in the last 30 years, you do have to admit they are the definition of lucky. How many teams can say “Oh yeah a top 10 center (top 2 is case of Shaq and Kareem) just feels like changing to our team”
Also the Lakers may not feel too lucky in a few years. Kobe will be a 35 year old shooting guard making 30 Mill with a possible new CBA and apparently a permanently injured finger.
We may also get lucky(non Laker fans that is) in that Miller may convince the Lakers to let go of Odom and do something dumb like try and resign Fisher.
arturogalletti
July 2, 2010
Updated. Fear the Deer!
arturogalletti
July 2, 2010
nerdnumbers,
Not luck, Economics. Players always tend to move to where they can maximize their value. My frustration is that generally they target value guys. Don’t be surprised if they can sucker someone into Kobe in 2/3 years (Hello New York)
Shawn Ryan
July 2, 2010
Is it just impossible to get a 30 year old to sign for fewer than 4 years? Why do teams do that? I think that teams see veterans as low risk, but I’m starting to wonder. I guess there are only so many 24 year olds in the league, and you’ve gotta play somebody…
robbieomalley
July 2, 2010
Lakers and Steve Blake have agreed to 4 years 16 million deal.
http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/player_main.aspx?sport=NBA&id=964&sn=t
I think this eliminates Miller to Lakers possibility.
Alvy
July 2, 2010
Dammit, Steve Blake is whatever. Pretty bumped out about not waiting on Miller’s response.
arturogalletti
July 2, 2010
Dances victory dance. Alvy not yours.
BTB Wade and Bosh currently in Henry Thomas office (Bulls)
Chicago Tim
July 2, 2010
Alvy — I think Blake is a good pickup for the Lakers at that price. Miller is getting lots of interest, and I think the Lakers correctly decided they couldn’t afford him.
todd2
July 3, 2010
Re: the Lebron sweepstakes; is it safe to assume that if Mike Brown didn’t tinker with his lineup during the playoffs he’d still have his job, the Cavs would have a title and James stays in Cleveland?
marparker
July 3, 2010
todd2,
I don’t think so. Boston was pretty dominant they just couldn’t finish in the 4th in the LA. One man’s opinion so what the frig do I know.
TBall
July 6, 2010
Arturo – Love the spreadsheet.
Small quibbles. I think Pierce is going to decline enough over the length of his contract, that it should be in the red. I still think it was a good deal for the Celts, given their limited options and the argument they can still compete for a title next season, but I don’t think he is this productive over the life of the deal.
Also, if Amir Johnson is given starter minutes, you need to credit him with 9 fouls/game. Not worth investing time altering the spreadsheet, but I wanted to point that out.
I’m fascinated to see what Childress does in his first year back.
Scott Robinson
July 10, 2010
I am as a long suffering GSW fan, excited with the David Lee deal, especially if Brandon Wright can stay healthy. Turiaf provides more leadership than WP, and Azubuike had a devastating injury which may see him never back on the court. Thanks NYK.
sportsfanatic613
July 12, 2010
An excellent signing by Phoenix today in getting Josh Childress for $35 million over 5 years. Not sure what N.J. is doing with them giving Travis Outlaw the same $35 million over 5 years that they could have used to sign Childress. Additionally, were they competing against anyone for the services of either Outlaw or Johan Petro who they signed for $10 million over 3 years? Sounds as if the Nets will not be much better than they were this year. Only the maturation of Lopez and Terrence Williams will give them more wins. Don’t think that Prokhorov or his team of experts knows what they are doing. The only good move was signing of Anthony Morrow, but one would expect that with salary cap space of $30 million that they would have greatly improved their team. Unfortunately, the Nets will remain to be a terrible team for years to come.