“Hi Danny, this is Sam Presti calling”
“Hi Sam. What can I do for you?”
“Remember a few years ago when I gave you Ray Allen”
“Well, you didn’t give me Ray…
“Hold on, let me finish. Remember when I gave you Ray Allen. And you then were able to trade for Kevin Garnett; which then allowed you to win an NBA title. Remember all that?”
“Not sure I would say you gave me Ray Allen. But I did appreciate doing business with you.”
“That’s great. How about you do something to show your appreciation?”
“Again Sam, what can I do for you?”
“How about you take the two worst players on my team? And in return give me a big man that can help me contend for a title?”
“If I do this, can we say we’re even?”
“Sure Danny. Great doing business with you. And maybe we will see each other again in June.”
Such is the conversation I imagined taking place today between Sam Presti (general manager of the Oklahoma City Thunder) and Danny Ainge (general manager of the Boston Celtics). I imagined this conversation right after I heard that the Thunder were sending Jeff Green and Nenad Krstic to the Celtics for Kendrick Perkins and Nate Robinson.
As the following table indicates, Green and Krstic – the starting power forward and center for the Thunder – are the least productive members of the Thunder.
Entering the 2010-11 season, the Thunder had five NBA veterans who posted above average WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes] marks last season (average WP48 is 0.100). This season – after 56 games – these five players (Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Thabo Sefolosha, Serge Ibaka, and James Harden) are again posting above average marks. But the remainder of the roster this season – just as we see when we look at performances in 2009-10 – is still below average.
Consequently, the Thunder’s efficiency differential (offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency) is only 2.59. Such a mark is consistent with a team that would win about 33 of their first 56 games. So although the Thunder have won 36 games and currently are in first place in the Northwest division (and hold the 4th seed in the West), Oklahoma City is not contending for an NBA title in 2011.
One way this could change, though, is if this team could remove the players who are not really helping. The Thunder have above average players at point guard (Westbrook), shooting guard (Harden and Sefolosha), and small forward (Durant and Sefolosha). But when we look for productive big men, we only see Ibaka. And Ibaka primarily comes off the bench.
Once again, starting at center and power forward for the Thunder is Krstic and Green. And those two players have combined to produce -2.4 wins this season. If each player was replaced by just an average player (i.e. WP48 of 0.100) this season, the Thunder would improve by 8.3 wins across 56 games. To see this, let’s note that the combination of Krstic and Green have played 2,833 minutes this year. Had each been average, these two would have combined for 5.9 wins, or once again, 8.3 more wins than the Thunder have this season (since Green and Krstic combine to produce -2.4 wins).
Now if the Thunder won 8.3 more games, the team’s winning percentage would be 0.737. And that mark matches what we see from the Miami Heat this season. Yes, if Krstic and Green were average – again, this is a WP48 mark of 0.100 – the Thunder would be on par with the best teams in the NBA.
So how good is Kendrick Perkins? Across the past three seasons Perkins has posted the following numbers:
- 2007-08: 0.111 WP48
- 2008-09: 0.106 WP48
- 2009-10: 0.126 WP48
And this season, Perkins is at 0.081 WP48 (and he has been hurt). So I think we can conclude Perkins is an average center.
Acquiring Perkins was not the only move the Thunder made on Thursday. Oklahoma City also acquired Nazr Mohammed from the Bobcats (for Morris Peterson and D.J. White).
Mohammed has a career WP48 of 0.116, and last year he posted a 0.199 mark for the Bobcats. This season, at the age of 33, his WP48 mark is only 0.048. But if Perkins and Mohammed can take most of the minutes at center, then Nick Collison and Ibaka can stay out of the middle. And that move will boost the WP48 mark of each player.
In sum, it looks like the Thunder – thanks to Danny Ainge – have a chance to be much better. In fact, it is possible that Kevin Durant is suddenly playing for a title contender.
Again, all of this is due to the generosity of Danny Ainge. Or was it just payback for Ray Allen?
Then again, maybe Ainge didn’t do this to help out the Thunder. The problem Jeff Green had in Oklahoma City was that he was probably being played out of position. Green is 6-9 and weighs 235 pounds. But although he looks like a big man, relative to an average power forward, Green is below average with respect to rebounds and shooting efficiency.
The Celtics, though, don’t need Green to play power forward. Boston already has Kevin Garnett and Glenn Davis at power forward. And Krstic and Shaquille O’Neal can play center. That means Green can spend most of his time at small forward. Green is still below average at small forward, but as a back-up to Paul Pierce, he doesn’t hurt as much.
So this move probably didn’t help the Celtics much. After all, Krstic is still not a very good center (but not much worse than Semih Erdan who the team shipped out today). But this move probably doesn’t hurt as much as one might think if they didn’t consider where Green will probably play in Boston.
How this move impacts the Celtics, though, isn’t the big story (at least, I don’t think so). If Perkins can be healthy (he his hurt now) and Mohammed can still play, the Thunder have suddenly acquired some players in the middle who won’t hurt them when they take the court. Given the talents of Durant, Westbrook, Sefolosha, Ibaka, and Harden, the Thunder might finally be contenders in the West. And that means, Danny and Sam might be meeting again in June.
– DJ
P.S. Of course, Miami, Chicago, San Antonio, and the LA Lakers might have something to say about this potential meeting.
Wages of Wins Journal 
robbieomalley
February 24, 2011
The rumored reason Boston basically gave Harangody and Erden away for nothing was to clear roster spots because apparently Troy Murphy to Boston is a lock. That’s the rumor. Such a development could change the outlook of Bostons trade deadline decisions.
Devin
February 25, 2011
That better be the case, because otherwise these moves are a rare mis-step for the Celtics!
And I’ll say this about the Thunder: they’ve just upgraded from OKC to OKA.
Mike G
February 25, 2011
As a Bostonian for 15 years, I had precisely the same reaction. Locals hate the move.
Interestingly, they hate it not because they realize that Jeff Green is a WofW turkey (the usual applies: they see 15 ppg and figure he’s okay), but because Perk is considered tough.
Of course, per above, if Troy Murphy gets Perk’s minutes…
reservoirgod
February 25, 2011
Funny thing is Heat beat writers reported Murphy was coming to Miami. Either way, I’d be shocked if he made that big a difference. I think he’s hurt & can’t be effective. As bad as the Nets are, I don’t think Avery Johnson is so stupid/insane that he’d tell any player to stay home if they could help the Nets win games.
As for Perkins, McHale said Ainge told him they traded him because they didn’t think they were going to be able to re-sign him & didn’t want to lose him for nothing. As much as it pains me to say it, I think it’s unfair to criticize Ainge for trading below average players & agree w/ Dr. Berri that it doesn’t make them as weak as a lot of ppl think.
todd2
February 25, 2011
Looks like the C’s are expecting a lot from Shaq. We still have months of basketball left.
Schermeister
February 25, 2011
Love this trade for OKC
Even if perkins and Maz stay at the same WP thats basically a 5-8 win swing. And not counting wages of wins, these guys are prooven winners and have been on good teams before and offer a degree of toughness. With some solid non spectactular big man play.
Furthermore Jeff green is in the final year of his contract and will probably pull in higher offers because of his high ppg. If he stayed in OKC I could easily see them wasting another 8 million on him and never recovering that money.
Schermeister
February 25, 2011
Comment above Maz = Naz
nerd numbers
February 25, 2011
I agree Ainge had money issues. I’m glad he didn’t allocate 20 mill to Allen, Wallace and O’Neal next season. Wait. . .
Italian Stallion
February 25, 2011
This was obviously a great move for OKC. I don’t even know what else to say. It almost seems too obvious to discuss.
Italian Stallion
February 25, 2011
I don’t mean to hijack this thread, but I made a tragic realization last night.
It’s a shame the Nuggets didn’t squeeze the Knicks to include Landry Fields in the Melo deal. If they did, I finally would have had the opportunity to see what the Knicks look like with a C, backup PG, bench, and a coach that stresses playing hard on both ends of the floor.
Go Nuggets
Chris Ross
February 25, 2011
This trade really adds a lot to OKC because they have regressed defensively this year, at least I think they have and Perkins adds the real inside presence that they sorely lack. Ibaka isn’t exactly it at the moment cuz he’s still figuring things out as an NBA player. It’s going to be interesting to see how well their offence rolls w/o Green and w/o a big man that can shoot a jumper outside of 10 feet. Don’t think it should be too much of a problem but they are definitely a team to look out for with the Perkins addition.
Great post man.
Philip
February 26, 2011
I had the exact same thinking as Chris Ross. Prof Berri has argued in the past that players don’t have any impact on each other’s shooting efficiency, while conventional “wisdom” states that having non-shooters on the floor hurts your team’s efficiency.
Kristic and Green are both “floor spreaders” but from a WP perspective provide negative production. Perkins is generally considered an offensive liability outside of his bone-crunching screens, but from a WP perspective is a net positive.
The Thunder’s offensive efficiency stands at 110 right now. Let’s see if there’s any change in this admittedly small sample size of 30 games.
GovernorStephCurry
February 26, 2011
Troy Murphy is a horrible basketball player. His WP is high because WP is extremely flawed. Throughout his career his teams defense has been worse when he’s on the floor by large margins. They rebound worse when he’s on the floor as well. Troy Murphy has never had a positive net +/-, yet Dr. Berri will tell you he’s a superstar. If the Celtics get Troy Murphy, this deal will be even worse, as in, the Celtics will get unbelievably worse just by having him out there. The leagues best defensive team cannot afford to have the single worst defensive player in the NBA on the floor for any minutes. And that is why WP is a bad stat, but not as bad as PER ;)
GovernorStephCurry
February 26, 2011
But this is a horrible trade for the Celtics by any measure whether thats WP or something else. Jeff Green sucks at basketball. Kristic too. This hinges on Shaq’s health. They believe Shaq would only be productive in a starters role. I get that. But what about his backups? Do they think J.O. can still kick it? He’s been hurt and horrible all year. the only hope is they sign Leon Powe and maybe Dan Gadzuric. Yeah, Gadzuric is bad, but in a small, defined role for the Celtics, i think he could be rather good. He’s a good defensive player, and rebounder, and yeah. That’s all they need out of their center. He could give them 5-10 minutes of quality defense and rebounding. Just tell him to stop taking so many shots!
marparker
February 26, 2011
Oy gov’ner,
Sorry thought I was British for a moment. A simple table of Murphy’s on/off court production vs. wp48 would go a lot longer in illustrating your point than a few bold statements with no supporting argument.
Berri, whilest some consider him insufferable has made several bold predictions in the face of conventional wisdom and been completely correct. I would surmise that his pre season predictions need work, but his mid season sutff has been pretty dead on. Maybe come back around November?
Italian Stallion
February 26, 2011
“Prof Berri has argued in the past that players don’t have any impact on each other’s shooting efficiency, while conventional “wisdom” states that having non-shooters on the floor hurts your team’s efficiency.”
I think having a non shooter almost has to have some negative impact because of the way a defense can adjust, but it may be small enough in the grand scheme of things that to focus a lot of energy on it compared to what Perkins adds relative to other the guys would be a mistake.
Now if you have two or three non shooters, you may have a bigger problem, but teams are rarely constructed that way on purpose.
I suspect there are a lot of valid points brought up here and elsewhere that are not included in this model. Perhaps it could be tweaked to improve it over time, but the real issue is to get the larger and more important values correct. IMO that’s where any debate should be focused. (rebounds, extremes of usage, individual defense etc..)
stephanieg
February 26, 2011
Common sense tells me playing with good players should, all else being equal, increase your efficiency compared to playing with bad players, whether you’re a star or a role player who does nothing but shoot threes. Numerous examples abound. Then I watch a Heat game. Wade’s efficiency went up a bit; LeBron and Bosh fell by a lot. That doesn’t make any sense unless they’re just low IQ basketball players, their coach is awful, or they lack certain basic skills (like off ball movement), all of which are quite possible. But as long as this is happening it demands an explanation from people who think better players = better efficiency. Also LeBron and Wade’s TOs are up despite lowered usage and ball handling responsibilities.
Another player I think is like that is Kobe. It seems his efficiency is always about the same, whether he takes 10 shots or 30. Mostly because he keeps taking the same dumb shots he always does.
Frankly, both WP or APM are extremely flawed. WP is just devastated by the fact that good individual rebounders don’t translate into a good rebounding team, cases like Troy Murphy or David Lee smack you across the face when you watch them play, the impossibility of predicting a team will be good defensively or not, or all the diminishing returns articles out there. But APM is all over the place and doesn’t seem to make any sense and it doesn’t even tell fun stories like WP. I still can’t get over the year CP3 went from being one of the worst defensive players in the league to being one of the best. Plus Berri makes more entertaining predictions that come true just often enough to keep you hooked.
Italian Stallion
February 26, 2011
“Common sense tells me playing with good players should, all else being equal, increase your efficiency compared to playing with bad players, whether you’re a star or a role player who does nothing but shoot threes.”
Logically, playing with better players should tend to increase efficiency, but it should also tend to lead to diminishing returns. So maybe the values don’t change very much???
IMO, here is the problem. Everyone wants a universal formula that applies to all players in all situations, but it doesn’t exist (and won’t any time soon) because players are individuals with different talents playing in various combination with other players with different talents. The demands on each and benefits to each change depending on the circumstances and combinations. As long as these thing are kept in check by reasonably sound team building, then a good model should get you into the ball park on the values. An analysis of the details of what’s actually going on and game watching should enlighten you further.
Plus, we have to keep in mind that some of these fluctuations are just random within a career.
Mike
February 27, 2011
Hmm…
IMHO, the biggest mistake is letting what you think you watched overly influence you – especially if you watch a game once. On Bright Side Of The Sun, a Phoenix fansite, the claim was made that Gortat (a WP48 star) was beaten to a key rebound by Boris Diaw, with the claim that Diaw was guarded by Gortat. I watched and wrote a rebuttal with 13 screenshots. Watching once leads to incorrect assessments – and not watching everything, and checking scouting reports (see the assessment of Dudley’s defence) can lead to mistaken conclusions.
As an example, anyone who thinks Derrick Rose is the reason Chicago is doing so well clearly hasn’t checked the stats – becssue that they are doing so well because they have the best defence in the NBA.
IMHO if Rose, the best offensive player on a defensive team, is an MVP candidate, then in 2005 and 2006 why was Steve Nash and not Shawn Marion, a defensive star on the Best offensive team, the MVP?
TL;DR Watching a game, especially once, can be really misleading, and can cause people to over value the wrong things / make incorrect claims.
Philip
February 27, 2011
IS,
It’s not just Perkins that’s a non-shooter. Collison, Aldrich and Ibaka are also all non-shooters. Just something to keep an eye on.
Italian Stallion
February 27, 2011
“As an example, anyone who thinks Derrick Rose is the reason Chicago is doing so well clearly hasn’t checked the stats – they are doing so well because they have the best defense in the NBA. ”
I agree. Rose may be very important to the Bulls offense, but they are unquestionably a very good team and possibly a major contender because of the team defense, which in shared.
I have to admit he’s getting way better though.
At the end of the recent Miami game, he used his talent to drive to the hoop. Wade doubled him and he found Deng for a wide open look that sealed the game. In the past he would have shot. That’s an assist for Rose instead of a low percentage shot that would have excited the crowd and media if he made it but long term reduced his TS% and value.