Here is something I meant to post sometime ago. The sports writers name one MVP for the league. But each team has an MVP, or at least, an MPP (Most Productive Player). So let’s talk about all those MPPs.
And when I say talk, that’s exactly what I mean. Today’s post is both a podcast and a written column.
Let’s begin with the details on the podcast.
You can listen to the podcast one of three ways:
And here is the Cast:
- Dave Berri from the Wages of Wins Journal
- Mosi Platt (who led, recorded and assembled all the details on the podcast) from the Miami Heat Index
- Arturo Galletti from Arturo’s Silly Little Stats
Okay, let’s start with a listing of the MPP on each team in the NBA in 2010-11.
Here are some stories from this table (much of which we discussed in our podcast)
- As noted before, scoring and team wins dominate the MVP voting. The players who received the most votes were the leading scorers on winning teams. And Derrick Rose – the player named MVP – was the leading scorer on the team with the most wins.
- Of all the MPPs in the league, Derrick Rose had the most help. The last column of the above table reports how many wins each team would have if the team’s MPP was replaced by a player who was only average (and average player has a Wins Produced per 48 minutes – or WP48 – of 0.100). The Bulls are the only team that would still win 50 games with their MPP replaced by an average performer. So once again, Rose is not a one-man team (an impression you get from the media’s coverage of Rose and the Bulls).
- If you replace Kevin Love with an average player, the Timberwolves are projected to win about three games. In fact, Love produced more wins than Minnesota actually had in the standings. How is that possible? The key issue – as noted in the podcast – is that Wins Produced is derived from a team’s efficiency differential. Without Love, Minnesota would be expected to have the lowest differential in league history. Would that actually happen? Well, there are diminishing returns in the NBA. So some of Love’s teammates would get a bit better. But the diminishing returns effect is not so large that Minnesota — without Love — couldn’t challenge the 1972-73 76ers for the worst record in the NBA.
- We made two more observations about Minnesota in the podcast. First, Minnesota has done an amazing job of finding the least productive lottery picks in the NBA. And secondly (a point related to the first observation), Kevin Love should probably try to get out of Minnesota as soon as possible.
- Two more observations from the table: First, two teams – the Charlotte Bobcats and Utah Jazz – were led in Wins Produced by players who have departed from the team. Meanwhile, three other teams – the Detroit Pistons, LA Clippers, and New York Knicks – were led by rookies. That led us to ask the question: Will a rookie lead a team in Wins Produced in 2011-12 (assuming there is a next season)? The next draft class looks weak, but our analysis of the draft is really just getting started. Ian Levy – of Hickory High –has got the analysis started with his 2011 Draft Similarity Scores. Look for more from Ian in the near future.
The podcast then moved on to topics beyond each team’s MPP. Here is some of what we discussed.
- In memory of Robert “Tractor” Traylor, the podcast took a trip back in time to the 1998 draft when he was traded by the Milwaukee Bucks to the Dallas Mavericks for Dirk Nowitzki.
- Speaking of Nowitzki, he was the most productive player for the Mavericks as they swept the Los Angeles Lakers out of the playoffs. What does the future hold for the Lakers since Magic Johnson said the team needs to be blown up?
- What does the future hold for the Celtics since Doc Rivers said they need to add players after they were eliminated by the Heat in five games? The WoW Network’s resident Celtics fan (that would be Arturo) chimed in with his opinion.
We closed with a discussion of the Celtics. Arturo’s optimism was offset by the following observation: The Celtics had four player who produced more than ten wins each (Kevin Garnett, Rajon Rondo, Paul Pierce, and Ray Allen). To put that in perspective, twelve teams –as the above table reveals – didn’t have one player with more than ten Wins Produced. Unfortunately for the Celtics, three of their most productive players – Garnett, Pierce, and Allen – are 85 years of age (in basketball years). So what is going to happen when these player inevitably stop playing? Well, Arturo has hope (which Mosi and Dave did their best to dash).
– DJ and Mosi Platt
Wages of Wins Journal 
Matt
May 13, 2011
Doc Rivers will be collecting Phil Jackson-type money for the next 5 years.
tywill33
May 13, 2011
The Bucks did not trade Dirk Nowitzki. The Bucks never held the contractual rights to Dirk Nowitzki. They proxy selected him for the Dallas Mavericks. The Bucks erred by trading up to proxy select Tractor Traylor, but they did not trade Nowitzki. He would have been off the board by the 9th pick.
Ben Davidson
May 13, 2011
Anyone who thinks the Bulls would be successful with Rose replaced with an average point guard are crazy. Its amazing to hear the commentary in games about how they really have no other go to guy for scoring and how they really need others on the team to step it up and then here how Rose has such a great supporting cast etc.
The Bulls play great as a team, rebound very well, and play tough defense. Together with Rose at point, they are a very good team. If you take him away, it all falls apart.
Oh, and King James has no support at all on his team. Must be tough being the only capable player on your squad /s
Mike
May 13, 2011
…Camby is still a superstar at 36 years old averaging 26 minutes a game and a usage rating of 11.7%? interesting.
Kevin Love being the best player in the NBA and kris humphries being a superstar are also interesting conclusions.
Tom
May 13, 2011
As a Toronto fan, what I want to know is this: how many games could we have won if we could have replaced our top scorer with an average player?
MikeMother
May 13, 2011
Please, pretty please, no more Rose discussions.
Solution to that is easy either:
1. Stop listening to/believing the commentary or
2. Stop reading here.
Problem solved :)
Seriously, anyone who thinks Rose has no help clearly has no idea what the game of Basketball is and has never watched a game. Last time I checked, basketball was a game with 5 players on court at once, interacting to create efficient scoring opportunities whilst limiting the ability of the other team to score efficiently and securing possession of the ball. The Bulls have a lot of players who do at least part of that equation, and do it very well, no?
marparker
May 14, 2011
The numbers only state that Kevin Love is the most better than his teammates. Not that he is the best player in the league. Sort of like being the only attractive women on a softball team. I call these players Jenny Finches.
This leads to the Rodman discussion. The numbers state the Dennis Rodman was the most good at getting out of Michael Jordan’s way. Of course, Michael Jordan can’t get out of his own way and guys on other teams don’t have that luxury either. These kind of limited players who minimize their liabilities know their roles. I call them Jabronis.
Then there are the universally accepted producers. These are guys who can afford to be selfish. Sometimes Greed is good. I call them Gekkos.
Then there the Gekkos amongst Gekkos players. These are the guys who are capable of being selfish yet can still get you a 120+ offensive rating while also being a top defensive player at their position. I like to call these guys Lebron James or Chris Paul. If these guys play a full healthy season their team will win 50 games no matter who you stick them with.
Kevin Love is very interesting. I don’t think its fair to lump him in with guys like Troy Murphy, or even David Lee. Kevin Love is 21 and already a perrenial all-star by all the “advanced-stats” that I keep an eye on. (PER,EFF,WS,WP). The same can’t be said for some other famous Finches. Of course when my Wizards could have had him they took Mike Miller and Randy Foye instead. Oye
Mike
May 14, 2011
The WP numbers only state that Kevin Love was worth over 25 wins for a team with 17 wins. That is crazy.
Love’s a lot like Lee and Murphy, two guys who were very overrated by WP because they were great rebounders and terrible defenders…I do think Love is a bit better than both of them though.
marparker
May 15, 2011
Mike,
I guess I should say the way I interpret the numbers. I’ve got my own metric but I’m not as organized or as articulate as Mr. Berri, so I get to come on this site and run off at the mouth instead of taking the heat of publishing my own numbers. That being said, as a gambler, using models close to the one Berri came up with has kept me from losing my house. I can’t say the same for the other types of numbers which may or may not have resulted in my homelessness circa 2005.
Mike
May 19, 2011
@ marparker
I have never seen anything other than anecdotal examples that shows WP48 is better at predicting future wins than the other advanced stats – PER, WS48, SPM.