Let me pretend to be a sports reporter tonight and post my comments on Game One of the NBA Finals this evening.
Coming into tonight’s game LeBron had played 16 games in the 2007 NBA Finals. In fifteen games he was above average. Tonight he would have had to play quite a bit better to get to average. His final Win Score was zero. Nothing. Nada. Zilch. So his PAWS (Position Adjusted Win Score) was clearly in the negative range (-0.152 to be exact).
In contrast, Tim Duncan offered his third highest production level of the 2007 post-season (game two against Utah and game three against Phoenix were each higher). Duncan, though, was not the most productive player in the game. That honor falls to the man named Boobie. Daniel Gibson took nine shots and hit seven. He also nabbed four steals. When the game was over, his PAWSmin stood at 0.351 while Duncan’s was only 0.285. Unfortunately for Boobie, he was the only player with a positive PAWSmin. In other words, he was the only above average player on the Cavs. And when you only have one above average player, that probably means you get to lose.
Duncan was not only great, but as usual, also got help. Francisco Elson, Manu Ginobili, and Tony Parker were each above average as well (PAWSmin of 0.275, 0.140, and 0.027 respectively).
And to repeat, LeBron was both “not great” and played without much help. Yesterday I compared LeBron to Dwayne Wade. Last year Flash was the “next Jordan” and was also making a first appearance in the NBA Finals. Although it ended very nicely for Wade, like LeBron, Flash struggled in Game One of the 2006 NBA Finals. He also struggled in Game Two. Fortunately for the Heat, in the last four games of the Finals, Wade was amazing.
Can LeBron prove to be the next “Flash”? Or will he be the next “Flash-in-…”? Okay, dumb question. Regardless of how this championship series goes, LeBron is still going to be an extremely good player. He still is not playing for an extraordinarily good team (a good team, but not extraordinary), but King James is still a damn good player.
In closing tonight, I wanted to call attention to the NBA coverage offered at NBA Babble and Win Score. Jason Chandler has two excellent posts covering both the top playoff performances (before the Finals) and the top players in the regular season.
Beyond the work of Chandler, I also wanted to note Bill Russell’s blog. Yes, the immortal Bill Russell is now offering his thoughts on a blog. I am quite sure that Russell has never heard of The Wages of Wins. Still, he is the embodiment of the NBA story our book is telling. Wins in the NBA are not just about scoring. Russell was not a scorer, but his team still managed to win consistently because Russell was a phenomenal rebounder (among other fine defensive attributes).
Hat tip to Pacifist Viking for the link to Russell (and a number of fine comments in this forum).
– DJ
Wages of Wins Journal 
Steve Walters
June 8, 2007
Fine analysis, Dave–thanks. The mainstream press is not being nearly as even-handed (they’re generally calling LeBron’s performance a “flop”). Watch: if LeBron’s scoring numbers don’t pick up (whatever his scoring efficiency), the scribes will start to construct a myth about how the kid can’t perform under pressure, on the big stage, yadda yadda.
Also, thanks to Dave and Viking for bringing Russell’s blog to my attention. One of my all-time faves, as a player and man. This quote of his is interesting:
“Tim Duncan is a really, really good player, and one of the main reasons why is that he can be effective without having the ball all the time. I would say that of all the high-profile players, he does the best job without the ball. It’s easy if you have the ball and you’re making three pointers over by the popcorn stand, but he’s very effective and causes problems on both ends of the court without the ball. When you’re playing San Antonio, you don’t get a whole lot of uncontested layups and he’s a big part of that. Duncan also sets great picks, and not just for the pick and roll. He sets picks to make the offense operate, not necessarily to get himself a shot.”
This is why quantitative analysis of basketball is so hard. When Old Timers start mouthing off about how baseball stats don’t capture the really important things in the game, it’s pretty easy to demonstrate they’re wrong. In hoops, there really are a lot of things going on for which there are no (or imperfect) measurements. IMHO, WoW does a great job of coping.
Harold Almonte
June 8, 2007
There are two differents and kind of basketball games, the inside and the outside game, and SA excell both without any weakness, at both ends of the floor. It’s not like Dallas without inside ofense and outside defense, Suns with an outside defense weakness, and Detroit, with no Wallace to stop Lebron.
Lebron, aside thet powerful frame he got and how he abuses with it (he’s also the best floor vision for a wing), is still an impaired player. He needs to grow (and he’s doing it too slowly), like Jordan did. He needs a jumper from any distance, he needs a post game, and he needs a defense.
dberri
June 8, 2007
Harold,
If the Cavs come back and win, will you tell the same story? You seem to be drawing very strong conclusions from one game.
Harold Almonte
June 8, 2007
Lebron is the difference, he’s practically the only inside scoring Cavs have, but he needs to trail Bowen first to face then Duncan, a playoff hard work even for Hercules. They’ll need to hothand shoot like the Conf. final game. Who will stop Parker?
It’s my conclusion, but depends on how Lebron reacts once the dirty play begins. Does he have the personality?
JChan
June 8, 2007
I love it when I go to TrueHoop and see links to Wages of Wins. Little by little, the good word gets out.
Also, I fear for the ratings on this series. I think a lot of casual fans tuned in for this game and were turned off by the poor shooting and LeBron’s poor performance. The solution is simple, and Mike Brown needs to be notified: more Boobie, immediately.
I really think the problem with LeBron’s dropping efficiency (talking about the regular season, as in your comparison yesterday) is the number of minutes he plays. No other star regularly plays 46 minutes per game. I really think if the Cavs could show more confidence in other players and get LeBron a few more minutes’ rest each game, his production would be the same in less minutes, which would make him more efficient.