A few days ago I presented a list with every player’s Wins Produced at the midpoint of the 2007-08 season. This column extends that conversation by reporting what each team looked like across the first half of year.
This story begins with Table One, which reports the summation of Wins Produced for each team in the league.
Table One: The NBA at the midpoint of 2007-08
The teams are listed by conference, with teams within the conference ranked in terms of Wins Produced. These rankings can be segmented into the following categories:
Elite – projected to win more than 50 games
Contenders – projected to win more than half their games, but less than 50
Pretenders – is projected to contend for a playoff sport but is not projected to win half their games
Lottery – is not projected to win half their games nor contend for a playoff spot.
It’s important to note that these observations are based solely on what each team did across the first 41 games of the season. Projections simply assume that what we saw in the first half will be exactly repeated in the second half. Obviously that’s not a great assumption for teams that have suffered major injuries (see the Lakers) and/or made major trades (see the Lakers). Still, despite this simplifying assumption, I think Table One, as well as the tables that list each player in each conference, can provide some insight into the second half of 2007-08.
Here are a few observations – reported for each conference — I had when looking over Table One.
Eastern Conference Observations
The discussion of Table One actually begins with Table Two, which has the Wins Produced of each player on each team in this conference across the first half of the season.
Table Two: All Eastern Conference Players
From Table One and Two, we can breakdown the teams as follows:
Eastern Conference Elite — Boston, Detroit
Eastern Conference Contenders — Orlando, Washington, Toronto
Eastern Conference Pretenders — Cleveland, Indiana, Atlanta, Chicago, Philadelphia, Charlotte
Eastern Conference Lottery — Miami, New York, New Jersey, Milwaukee
Additional notes:
1. Table Two shows us which players are responsible for the results we see in Table One.
2. Boston and Detroit are the only elite teams in the East. And of these two, Boston is clearly the best team in the conference. If Andrew Bynum (and Trevor Ariza) comes back, though, the Lakers with Pau Gasol might be able to challenge Boston.
3. After Boston and Detroit, only three other teams had a positive efficiency differential in the first half of the season. Cleveland – when Anderson Varejao is healthy – should join this group. Even with Cleveland improving, though, the East looks to have two teams make the playoffs with losing records.
4. The list of pretenders in the East – assuming Cleveland improves – includes five teams (and I am not too sure about Charlotte). Moving past these five we see Miami, New York, New Jersey, and Milwaukee. These teams -despite the general weakness of the East — do not seem to have much of a chance of making the playoffs (by the way, I hope to offer more thoughts on Milwaukee in a few days).
Western Conference Observations
Again we start with a table reporting the Wins Produced of each player on each team in this conference.
Table Three: All Western Conference Players
Western Conference Elite: Phoenix, New Orleans, San Antonio, Los Angeles Lakers, Dallas, Utah
Western Conference Contenders: Denver, Houston, Portland, Golden State
Western Conference Lottery: Minnesota, Seattle, Los Angeles Clippers, Memphis Grizzlies, Sacramento Kings
Additional Notes
1. With the acquisition of Gasol, and a healthy Bynum (and Ariza), the Lakers are the top team in the West. If Bynum doesn’t come back this year, though, the Western Conference title will be up for grabs.
2. There are ten above average teams in the West. Six of these – the Elite – are quite close (assuming Bynum is hurt). The next four are also quite close. But after 41 games, the Nuggets and Rockets were a bit better – in terms of Wins Produced and efficiency differential – than the Blazers and Warriors. So I would guess that Portland and Golden State will be watching the playoffs. I should emphasize, though, that the difference between these teams is not much. So fans of the Trail Blazers and Warriors might still see playoff basketball (involving their teams) in 2008.
3. Of the lottery teams, the Timberwolves and Sonics were easily the worst teams in the NBA in the first half of the season. With the Gasol trade, the Grizzlies should be able to join this group.
More on the Gasol trade…
My first glance at the numbers indicated that the Lakers with Bynum and Gasol (and Ariza) are every bit as good as the Celtics. So if Bynum comes back this year, another LA-Boston Final is a very real possibility.
If Bynum is out for the year – which Henry Abbot indicated was possible on Friday – then the Lakers are not much different from the other Elite teams in the West. Consequently, although the Celtics are clear favorites in the East, Boston’s opponent (assuming Boston does do what we expect in the playoffs) in the NBA Finals is still hard to identify at the midpoint of the season.
And one final note concerning the Grizzlies…
For Gasol the Grizzlies received the Lakers first round pick from last year (Javaris Crittenton), two first round picks in the future, and Marc Gasol. Pau’s brother, according to Memphis, is like a first round pick. So Memphis has claimed that they received four first round picks in this trade.
It’s important to note that first round in the NBA is quite different from the first round in the NFL. The NBA has only five starters. The NFL has 22 starting positions. By the time the NBA finishes its first round, it has gone through the equivalent of six starting units. For the NFL, six starting units are not completed until the 132nd pick, or the start of the fifth round.
When we look at the Gasol trade, we see that all of the picks the Grizzlies received are likely to be in the bottom third of the first round. So these are basically 3rd, 4th, and 5th round NFL choices. In sum, the Grizzlies have surrendered a player who has definitely shown he can produce wins in the NBA for a chance to take players who will probably not create many wins. Yes, it might save Memphis some money. But in terms of wins, it’s hard seeing this move paying off in the short or long-term.
And back to the Lakers… LA has managed to add a significant producer of wins without giving up much of anything. Now who thought Mitch Kupchak – the Lakes GM – didn’t know what he was doing?
– DJ
Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.
The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score
Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:
Simple Models of Player Performance
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.
Wages of Wins Journal 
Todd
February 4, 2008
I really like how you compared NBA and NFL draft picks. That really puts it into perspective (quantifies it) quite well. One thing to also note is that because the NBA only has 5 players on the floor at a time, each individual pick is the equivalent of about 4.5 NFL picks. This is why the top few picks in the NBA draft are so coveted. The #1 and 2 picks are comparable to the first 10 picks in the NFL draft. Of course, football has special teams, and NBA starters only play about 1/7 of the minutes, while many NFL players play every down, so these numbers aren’t perfect, but it is something to think about.
RG73
February 4, 2008
On the ‘Bynum might miss the season’ speculation, it is worth noting that the only source for this is Ric Bucher (of ‘Kobe will never wear a Lakers uniform again fame’). Lakers spokesman John Black and Mitch Kupchak both addressed that rumor and said that Bynum was right on schedule. They could be lying about that, but Bucher (of late) has tended towards sensationalism, so I tend to suspect that he’s misinformed (yet again). The local L.A. sports media has reported that he’s been walking without crutches or a knee brace already. Again, they could be lying or misinformed too, but my guess is that the team and local beat guys that cover the team might have more insight than Bucher.
Whatever the case…the West is tough. They really ought to redistribute the teams or have the playoffs between the 16 top teams. Not going to happen, of course, but it seems ridiculous that only one of Houston, Portland and Golden State is likely to make the playoffs this season, while a few teams with losing records are playing post season in the East. Its been that way for a while, no doubt, but the West just seems to get better (witness the emergence of GS and Portland the last 1.5 seasons).
andrew
February 4, 2008
The Cavs are 0-7 without Lebron. They actually like a +2 diff. with him, which isn’t great but better than negative. They really need to make a move.
John G
February 4, 2008
Todd,
I like most of your comment, but I’m a little confused on the minutes. Doesn’t an NBA starter play a greater percentage of the total minutes available than *any* NFL player, even one who plays special teams and starts on offense or defense? There are only five spots in basketball, and the players play both offense and defense.
Alex
February 4, 2008
I’m not sure how the Wins numbers say that the Lakers become the top team with Gasol on board. Bynum was on pace to produce 8 wins in the second half; Gasol 4. So if Bynum’s out the rest of the year, Pau helps keep the team afloat. But if Bynum comes back, and Gasol starts taking some of Odom’s time, the Lakers lose Odom’s production (and his 3 second half wins), right? Isn’t there a law of diminishing returns story in here? Or do you expect Gasol to drastically increase his production in a different system where maybe he isn’t the defense’s top concern?
magicmerl
February 4, 2008
Would a logical extension of this post to be to show what the winscore of players are by draft position?
e.g. Rookie #1 picks in the last 20 years averaged WinsProduced of X
#2 pick rookies in the last 20 years averaged WinsProduced of X
In the 3rd year…
in the 7th year….
And you can then estimate the value of getting the 15th pick in 2008 or whatever.
ty w
February 4, 2008
Come on, DJ! You can’t leave Bucks fans hanging with that cryptic comment. Are you just saying that you’re going to have more insights on the Bucks? Or are you implying the Bucks are so bad they need to be considered seperately from the rest of the lottery teams?
Also, why is the Bucks’ Wins Produced so far off their actual win count?
Finally, did you notice aggregate Win Score totals are up about 4% this season?
Does that suggest an elevated level of play? I know aggregate Win Score shot up after the influx of ABA talent following the merger in 1976, so I wondered if more Win Score indicates better play.
dberri
February 4, 2008
ty w,
My next post will be on the Bucks (so I guess I am saying I will have more insights).Unfortunately, I am too tired tonight to finish the column. So it will be posted tomorrow night.
Todd
February 4, 2008
John G,
Sorry if I wasn’t clear. I was just saying that some NFL players, notably quarterbacks and offensive linemen, do play almost every down that can be played at their position, while no NBA player averages 48 minutes. I was really talking about percent of minutes available at the position the player is playing, not percent of the team’s total minutes in that part of my post.
antonio
February 5, 2008
http://www.countthebasket.com/blog/2008/02/05/diminishing-returns-and-the-value-of-offensive-and-defensive-rebounds/
This is a really good read. I would really like to hear people’s opinions on this and what they think of the tests done, the data and the conclusions
Todd
February 5, 2008
Thanks for the link Antonio. That was a very enlightening article. I think it really brings to light the major issue with the WoW metrics – defensive rebounding.
Jake
February 6, 2008
Alex,
When/If Bynam is healthy, odom will play significant minutes at SF. He is capable of being an above average PF, but would be almost dominant on the boards against most small forwards.
So if Bynam and Gasol each play 30-35 min a game, that would leave 25-30 ‘big man’ minutes for turiaf and odom to split. if odom plays 15 or so of those at PF, he will get the rest of his time at SF with both gasol and bynam on the floor.
ariza should play at both SF and as kobe’s bakup at SG. basically, other than turiaf, every player the lakers give significant minutes too has shown he can be above average in the past, and 4 of them have shown they can be ‘perfect’ players, as dberri has referred to anyone who plays above a .200 wp48.
i am not a lakers fan, but if they all get healthy, they will be a ton of fun to watch.