Often Henry Abbott – of TrueHoop – reports statistical analysis posted in this forum. This morning, I am going to post the following statistical analysis by Abbott.
Kobe Bryant has asserted that he would post better numbers if he played in the Eastern Conference. As you can see, Abbott doesn’t just disagree with Kobe Bryant. Abbott notes that the numbers indicate that Kobe is very, very wrong. By the way, next week I plan on chiming in on the Kobe-for-MVP movement (and yes, the numbers say that idea is also very wrong).
from Henry Abbott…
From Jack McCallum’s excellent recent Sports Illustrated article about the Lakers:
Asked what his MVP ballot would look like, Bryant says, “I’m not even thinking about that.” But when somebody mentions that the Cleveland Cavaliers’ James is a favorite because he’s a near one-man team, Bryant, who was averaging 28.1 points, 6.1 rebounds and 5.3 assists through Sunday, snaps, “Put me in the East and see what happens.”
It sounds great, right? Wow … Kobe Bryant turned loose against the weaker conference. His numbers might astound. You can just let the argument sit right there. Ooh, Kobe, good point.
Or, you can use basketball-reference.com’s handy dandy season splits, and compare how Bryant has performed in the East compared to the West.
Not that this is the ultimate proof — the sample size is small, as we are talking about 28 games Bryant has played against the East, and 36 against the West. Just a few good or bad games here or there could change all that.
But the story is that there is not evidence to support Bryant’s assertion that he’d go buck wild in the East. In fact, Bryant has bigger totals against the West in nearly every major category, even though he has played slighlty more minutes per game (39.1 compared to 38) against the East.
Against the West, Bryant is scoring 29.3 points per game. Against the East, it’s 26.7. (James is scoring 29.6 againt the West, and 32 against the East.)
In the all-important field goal percentage, Bryant is shooting 48% against the West, and 44% against the East. (James is at 47% against the West, and 50% against the East.)
Bryant is getting 6.5 rebounds per game against the West, and 5.6 per game against the East. (James is at 8 against the West and 8.2 per game against the East.)
Bryant registers 5.3 assists per game against the West, and 5.4 against the East. (James is getting 7.3 against the West, and 7.6 against the East.)
Bryant is marginally better shooting free throws (82% vs. 88%) and three-pointers (33% vs. 37%) against the East. But all in all, for whatever reason — pace could be a big factor, and random chance could be another — Bryant has better numbers playing in the West.
Box score statistics are only one little backwater in the river of Kobe Bryant vs. LeBron James MVP debate. There are a hundred torrents of argument — their head-to-head play, Bryant is overdue, the Lakers are the better team, James went to the Finals with a so-so roster, Bryant is deferring to teammates more, etc.
But despite what Bryant may claim, the box score does not suggest he’d have James-like or better numbers if he moved East.
Wages of Wins Journal 
Adrian
March 14, 2008
Ok, but have you looked into the minutes that Bryant plays against the East? I bet that the Lakers are usually comfortable ahead in the last 5-10 minutes, meaning that Bryant doesn’t have to try as hard – I’d even venture to say that those extra minutes played are ‘practice minutes’.
Even so, could someone please factor in the handling duties of both Kobe and LeBron? Kobe plays in the triangle, having to catch, pass, shoot, cut and so on, and having to move without the ball a large amount of time. LeBron holds on to the ball for 20 secs then either shoots or passes. Yes, James is incredibly good, but the difference comes down to their usage rate.
jumper
March 14, 2008
“Kobe Bryant has asserted that he would post better numbers if he played in the Eastern Conference. ”
HE DID NOT.
jumper
March 14, 2008
“But when somebody mentions that the Cleveland Cavaliers’ James is a favorite because he’s a near one-man team…”
kobe’s response was to a question within the context of LBJ as an MVP favorite via him being a “one-man team”, and not as having superior stats. although a “one-man team” does mean superior stats, it is more than that – it is more about the ability of one man to carry his team to wins.
kobe’s response probably means that if he were to play in the east, he would have the same (or more) ability to carry his team to wins as LBJ, whether or not he produces more or less stats.
the fact that you missed this significant nuance and put words in kobe’s mouth that he “asserted that we would post better numbers” shows your bias against him. as such, i am not looking forward to your post on the kobe-for-mvp movement, even if you back it up with all the player stats you can find (you should be very familiar with the phrase “lying with statistics”).
the only number that doesn’t lie is the number of wins the teams have. it’s really funny and ironic, because for somebody who puts such a premium on “wins produced”, you suddenly ignore this pertinent statistic and trot out individual stats to back up your arguments for who should be MVP.
Brian
March 14, 2008
I doubt a bigger sample size, strictly speaking, would make Kobe look any better. Sure, he’s played fewer games against the East, but he’s had plenty of shot attempts, rebound opportunities, etc. for a solidly significant comparison.
One valid argument he might make would be one of to-date schedule imbalance. Perhaps Kobe has yet to face the easiest opponents of the East while Labron has already faced the weaker teams in the West (the few there are).
Check
March 14, 2008
Splits show Kobe better against west than east 5 on last 6 years with one year close to draw.
Brad
March 14, 2008
Kobe is better against the West because West games matter more. Duh. He elevates his performance when necessary. Where in your stats do you account for how Kobe draws more double teams than any other player, thereby increasing shooting percentage of his teammates.
Kevin Lee
March 14, 2008
If you replaced Kobe w/ James, the Lakers would have more wins than they do now. If you replaced James w/ Kobe, the Cavaliers would have less wins than they do now. Enough said.
Pete23
March 14, 2008
Kevin, I disagree. Leron’s Achielles’ heel is defense. Kobe is a much, much better defender.
Andrew
March 15, 2008
Brad: A win is a win.
Animal
March 15, 2008
This article criticizes Dave Berri’s insistence on refereed articles before he will debate Rosenbaum, http://www.tnr.com/story.html?id=82eb5d70-13bd-4086-9ec0-cb0e9e8411b3
Nickster
March 16, 2008
Jumper – wins produced is not the same as win-loss record. And I don´t think it is just Dave who interpreted Kobe´s comments in such a way. I think Kobe clearly means that he would play even better if he was in the East. Maybe you should stop and think before leveling accusations of bias.
Costa
March 17, 2008
You guys seem to have missed the fact this is not Dave Berri’s article, it is a reprint of Henry Abbott’s article, as Dave mentions at the very top. Click my name to see the original.
Though he obviously agrees with what’s being said, these words and analyses are Henry Abbott’s, not Dave Berri’s. If you disagree with them so vehemently, your beef is with him, not Dave Berri. Save your pre-decided arguments for Kobe Bryant until after dberri’s posted his forthcoming article. :)
jumper
March 17, 2008
@nickster:
“I think Kobe clearly means …”
you THINK Kobe meant he would play better in the East, that’s perfectly fine, cuz that’s your opinion of what he means.
Dave, however, claims that Kobe ASSERTED that he would play better in the East, which he CLEARLY did not.
Kobe might have meant that he’ll be better stats-wise in the East, or he might have meant something a little bit different, which is totally possible (“play better” doesn’t always mean better stats – that’s why we have the PER’s and the wins produced systems!). Bottom line is, we don’t know what he meant exactly, and there’s no way of determining that based solely on McCallum’s article. to say otherwise (which Dave did) is inventing stuff.
and does it matter if it’s not just Dave who interpreted Kobe’s comments that way? an untruth repeated no matter how many times remains untrue.
also, i didn’t say wins produced is the same as the win-loss record. however, wins produced directly affects the win-loss record. what’s the whole point of the wins produced system anyway if not to identify players that have the most potential to positively affect the win-loss record?
Logic
March 19, 2008
Isn’t it clear that for basketball statistical performance is not closely tied to actual performance in a general manner?
Try analyzing soccer using statistics and you’ll start to see how it’s a bit ridiculous to compare the stats of players.
Baseball probably has the best correlation to its standard statistics, and soccer the worst. Basketball would probably fall somewhere in between.
I don’t mean to say that you shouldn’t try to compare and analyze, but just recognize that there are limits to analyzing standard stats in basketball (points, rebounds, assists, turnovers).
Logic
March 19, 2008
As a related side note, the numbers don’t suggest that Kobe’s statistical performance would not be enhanced playing in the east – Henry Abbott’s interpretations of the numbers suggest that.
DataWonk
April 12, 2008
I know I’m a little late reading this post, but wouldn’t the logical thing for Prof Berri to do is settle this argument by comparing WP48 or Win Score for Kobe against the East and against the West. Why does he accept Henry Abbott’s statistical logic in this case, when nearly every other post is designed to show the fallibility of looking at particular stats in isolation?