In the March 17th issue of Sports Illustrated is an interview of Rashard Lewis (by Chris Mannix). In this interview Lewis notes the following:
“I read all the negative articles about my contract. I know the pressure is on me to score every night.”
In sum, Lewis believes people want the player who is paid the most on the Magic (by a wide margin) to also carry more of the scoring load. And this is because, as is often noted here, players in the NBA are primarily evaluated in terms of scoring.
With this point in mind, earlier in the month I introduced The WoW Club:
The primary story told about basketball in The Wages of Wins is that players are not primarily paid to win. Players are primarily paid to score. And the scoring doesn’t have to be efficient. Basically, the more points a player scores – whether efficiently or inefficiently – the more money the player will receive.
Whenever a player, coach, pundit, etc… notes this basic story (whether they acknowledge The Wages of Wins or not) then I will declare that person as a member of the WoW Club.
Not Quite a Member
Despite his comment, Rashard Lewis is not quite a member of the WoW Club. To see this, consider the comments he made to John Denton of FloridaToday.com.
In an article titled: Stats not big issue for Magic’s Rashard Lewis, is the following observation:
Part of his (Lewis) motivation for coming to Orlando was to broaden the awareness of how good he is as a scorer. But in Orlando, he’s had to make numerous sacrifices on both ends of the floor….
“I have to stay within the offense and not go against what our game plan is,” Lewis said after hitting four 3-pointers in Sunday’s defeat of Sacramento. “We’re third in the East, 14 games over .500, and we’ve got a chance to do some damage in the playoffs. For me to just go outside of the offense and try to get numbers would be disruptive to the team, and that’s just not something I’m going to do.”
All that being said, it would help if Lewis tried to get some numbers. Table One reports the numbers Lewis offered the Sonics in 2006-07 and what he is giving the Magic this season.
Table One: Rashard Lewis in 2006-07 and 2007-08
Last year Lewis primarily played small forward, but his Win Score would have been above average regardless of position played. This year he would be above average as a small forward, but unfortunately he is playing mostly at power forward. And his numbers at that position are below par.
When we look at the individual stats, we see that Lewis is an outstanding scorer. He is very efficient both from the field and the line (although he doesn’t get to the line as often as he did last year).
When we turn to possessions, though, we see a problem. Despite the move to power forward, Lewis is getting fewer rebounds. Per 48 minutes an average power forward will grab 11.4 rebounds. Lewis is only getting 6.5 or nearly five boards off the pace.
Certainly playing beside the top rebounder in the game – Dwight Howard – is going to have some impact on the numbers Lewis gets. In other words, diminishing returns (a story told in The Wages of Wins) may be an issue here. One should note, though, that Howard’s numbers do not seem to be impacting Hedo Turkoglu (whose rebounding is up this season). And the Magic as a team are only out-rebounding their opponents by one a game, so there is certainly room for improvement (unless there is a rule that the Magic can only grab one more rebound than their opponent per game).
The Number to Focus Upon
What if Lewis did maintain his rebounding numbers from last year? If he did, his Win Score would increase from 9.0 to 10.6. Such a mark would be slightly above average, but would still not justify the contract Orlando paid Lewis last summer.
And all this returns to a point I made last summer when Lewis was signed. At small forward, Lewis can post numbers that might justify his contract. At small forward he is an adequate rebounder and an outstanding scorer. At power forward, though, his inability to rebound is problem.
To summarize, the fans are correct to demand more numbers from Lewis to justify the contract. But it’s not more scoring this team needs. Given the position Lewis is forced to play, rebounds are what the fans should demand. Unfortunately, given what Lewis has done in his career, Lewis is not likely to provide such numbers.
– DJ
Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.
The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score
Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:
Simple Models of Player Performance
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.
Wages of Wins Journal 
Todd
March 15, 2008
Rashard Lewis’ inability to grab rebounds when he is not asked to get them should not count against him any more than someone like Ben Wallace’s inability to score points should count against him when he is not asked to score points.
Win score recognizes that we should look at scoring efficiency, rather than just saying that the player who scores the most points generates the most wins. It recognizes that if an inefficient scorer takes lots of shots, he is hurting his team by taking those shots away from someone who could make them more efficiently. Meanwhile, it would reward Rashard Lewis for hanging around the paint and boxing out so that he could get more of his team’s rebounds, even if running a rebounding scheme like that would take more boards away from Howard than would be picked up by Lewis.
I think the Magic are right to use Howard as their primary rebounder. I do not think it is fair or accurate to belittle Rashard Lewis for not going for more rebounds, any more than it is right or acurate to belittle Ben Wallace or Dennis Rodman for not taking more of their teams’ shots.
Andrew
March 15, 2008
The difference is that Ben Wallace were above average and great players despite their scoring limitations. The same cannot be said of Rashard in re: rebounding.
And while he may or may not be asked to rebound, that doesn’t mean he should not be rebounding. Orlando as currently constructed is only an average rebounding team, so maybe Rashard should be down low offering some more assistance.
Andrew
March 15, 2008
oops, meant to say Ben Wallace “and Dennis Rodman”
Sorry for the double post.
Animal
March 15, 2008
No problem. Are you a Cincinatti Reds fan?
Andrew
March 16, 2008
Yep. Opening day is upon us.
Westy
March 16, 2008
It would seem to me that, as Todd notes, Lewis’ diminished rebounds are a natural reaction to the coaching strategy.
It’s not just Howard’s (league leading) rebounds, but Turkoglu’s increased rebounds that are taking rebounds from those Lewis could potentially garner.
dberri
March 16, 2008
Westy,
So Lewis is not rebounding because
a. his coaches asked him not to?
b. or is it because all of his teammates steal his rebounds?
Why would his coaches put Lewis at power forward but then tell him not to rebound?
And if it is (b), why hasn’t Howard stolen Turkoglu’s rebounds?
I think a better explanation, given what we have seen of Lewis in his career, is that Lewis is not a great rebounder and therefore should not be asked to play power forward. That is the most simple explanation, and it fits the data.
Westy
March 17, 2008
I would say both.
Why would his coaches put Lewis at power forward but then tell him not to rebound?
Because they’ve asked him to do something else, namely shoot and score. It’s not that they’re literally asking him to not rebound, but they’re not placing him within the system to do that. I don’t disagree that he’s not a superb rebounder, but that’s not a problem on a team where you have Howard. If you replaced him with a good rebounder, sure, Orlando’s rebounds would go above average. But the loss on the offensive and scoring end would more than offset that (or at least that’s what the Orlando coaches seem to think).
Lewis spends quite a bit more time on the perimeter than the prototypical PF. Floor positioning and height are pretty good predictors of rebounding ability, and if Lewis is not in the place with the opportunity to grab rebounds, he won’t. Even if he’s close to the basket but Howard is closer, we can see what happens.
mpowell
March 17, 2008
So we acknowledge that Lewis is a good offensive player.
But isn’t the issue here that WoW doesn’t have a complete model for evaluating a player’s defensive contributions? Defensive rebounds are only one part of the picture. Plus, they’re really confusing. Is Lewis getting fewer rebounds because Howard gets all the rebounds? The real question is: how responsible is Lewis for the offensive rebounds their opponents snag? And then there is the defense question. Unless Lewis can do a good job guarding the faster small fowards, then he isn’t a good SF, even if he can grab slightly more rebounds than average. That’s the reason you need small, fast guys on the floor: to guard the other teams’ small, fast guys. Rebounds+position is a pretty rough metric for trying to determine a player’s overall contribution.
Todd
March 17, 2008
The question isn’t whether or not he is a good rebounder, the question is whether his low rebounding totals are costing his team wins.
I would contend they are not.
I am also contending that quantifying an individual player’s contribution on Defense by adding up his rebounds is essentially the same as quantifying a player’s contribution on offense by adding up points. Just as some inefficient scorers manage to score a lot of points because they are on a bad team or in a bad system, and some efficient scorers rarely score at all because they are on a good team or not utilized much: some inefficient rebounders are bound to be on bad teams or in systems where they are asked to pull down more boards than they rightfully should, and some efficient rebounders are on good teams or in systems that give them fewer opportunities to grab boards.
Devin
March 22, 2008
“Westy,
So Lewis is not rebounding because
a. his coaches asked him not to?
b. or is it because all of his teammates steal his rebounds?
Why would his coaches put Lewis at power forward but then tell him not to rebound?
And if it is (b), why hasn’t Howard stolen Turkoglu’s rebounds?”
Lewis is only a PF this year by label. It’s basically a two SF lineup with Dwight down low.
As for Hedo, you’re comparing Hedo’s previous numbers, which were also alongside Dwight, to Rashard’s previous numbers when he was not playing next to Dwight. Hedo’s RPG may have increased, but that’s primarily due to his jump in MPG this season, rather than rate of rebounding. Conversely, Rashard went from the 26th ranked rebounding team in the leauge without a dominant rebounder to the 13th ranked rebounding team alongside the league leading rebounder and rather than seeing an increase in MPG as did Hedo, his minutes are actually slightly down.