So far I have posted analysis of 14 teams during the current season. For those wondering who has been examined (and who has yet to be examined) I created the following page: NBA Mid-Season Analysis: 2008-09
As I have noted before, my work on the next book is restricting my posting Sunday, Tuesday, and Thursday nights (except for major holidays). In choosing a team to examine I look at the teams
a. that I have not covered, and
b. are not playing on the night I am posting.
So given Sunday’s schedule of games, it looks like the next NBA post can examine one of the following teams: Atlanta Hawks, Charlotte Bobcats, Chicago Bulls, Houston Rockets, Milwaukee Bucks, New Jersey Nets, Portland Trail Blazers, San Antonio Spurs, or Washington Wizards.
On Tuesday night my choices are restricted to the Chicago Bulls, Denver Nuggets, Houston Rockets, LA Lakers, and New Jersey Nets.
There are no games scheduled for next Thursday (New Years Day). So the subject of the post for that night is wide open.
If you have any strong preferences, please let me know. I can’t guarantee I will follow a good suggestion, but I certainly appreciate the help.
Hopefully this second book will be finished soon. And then I will get back to posting more frequently (I hope). As always, thanks for stopping by and making this forum a part of your day.
– DJ
Wages of Wins Journal 
Arthur
December 26, 2008
Can we get a recap of the Warriors that is more than three sentences in the middle of an article about the Knicks?
I know they aren’t a very interesting team these days (or for most of the time when they aren’t playing Dallas in the playoffs or trying to get to Sprewell to pass).
One thing I think they add to the conversation is how many great young centers < 23 there are in the league right now – Howard, Bynum, Jefferson, + Biedrins. Has the league ever been this rich?
Michael
December 26, 2008
Hi professor, I would really like to see the figures for the Hornets as Chris Paul was amazing last year and if he is still topping 0.4 this year then that would be pretty special. I also suspect that Tyson Chandler has slipped this year and wonder if this is true how it effects the outlook for the team.
From the choices you’ve given above though Atlanta would be the most interesting as this team seems greatly improved and it would be good to see how this happened after the loss of one of their most productive players (josh childress) in the summer.
Thanks
TRad
December 26, 2008
Houston, San Antonio, Utah. Yeah, I’m looking to find out who could make it interesting in the West. The East is easy: it’s Cleveland, Boston and Orlando. In the West there are Lakers, Hornets – and then what? Utah seems weaker than it should be, but is it only effect of Williams injury? Who was right about Houston – you or the MSM? How look Spurs comparing to last season version?
Analysis of minions could wait, in my opinion. They are down and will stay there until the next season.
Jordan
December 26, 2008
First of all, thanks DB for all your work.
Secondly, could we take a look at the Bucks and the “Skiles effect” that has taken effect on the team?
dberri
December 26, 2008
Thanks Jordan,
My plan was to talk about the Bucks next. I was concerned that no one would make this request.
After the Bucks, I was thinking of Houston.
Arthur,
Yes, I didn’t really review the Warriors. Maybe I can devote a whole post to that team. It appears that Nelson is learning (at least the team’s fans might be learning) that you can’t just put anyone in at power forward.
Alex
December 26, 2008
It isn’t a team analysis, but I was thinking of Grant Hill recently. I started watching basketball when he was the main man on the Pistons. I’ve heard some people say he was the best player (or one of) in the league back then, which is amazing to think now. Maybe a post on how he rates (rated?) when you get a chance?
Vince G.
December 27, 2008
Atlanta is certainly a fascinating team right now.
They are currently 4th in the East behind Boston, Cleveland, and Orlando – without Josh Childress.
If I was a betting man, I would say that Marvin Williams’ improvement in productivity is a huge reason for this transition, combined with the overall lack of depth near the bottom of the East.
Michael
December 27, 2008
Does anyone know if it tells you in the book how to calculate WP48? Win score is pretty straight forward, but i can’t seem to find the info on that.
Jordan
December 27, 2008
Michael, it isn’t exact, but check here:
https://dberri.wordpress.com/2007/02/25/introducing-pawsmin-%e2%80%93-and-a-defense-of-box-score-statistics/
Michael
December 27, 2008
Thanks Jordan…
Okay I used those numbers for Chris Paul and I got a wp48 of 0.397 after 24 games or 7.5 wins produced. Does that seem about right?
Cheers
dberri
December 27, 2008
Hi Michael,
Beyond looking in the book, you can also read the following article.
Berri, David J. (2008) “A Simple Measure of Worker Productivity in the National Basketball Association.” In The Business of Sport; eds. Brad Humphreys and Dennis Howard, 3 volumes, Westport, Conn.: Praeger: 1-40.
These websites also have information.
http://www.wagesofwins.com/TechnicalNotes.html
http://www.wagesofwins.com/CalculatingWinsProduced.html
By the way, I get a number that is quite a bit higher for Chris Paul.
Vince G.
December 27, 2008
Mike:
Bear in mind that the linear model of predicting WP48 traditionally has excellent accuracy, but may not be entirely accurate in every situation.
For Paul, a big part of the underestimation lies in the offense that he plays.
Unlike the Seven Seconds or Less-era Suns, Warriors, or Knicks, New Orleans hasn’t exactly been one of the fastest teams in the NBA. On average, the Hornets average about 88.8 offensive possessions in a game. To put this into perspective, the resurgent Miami Heat average 92.1 possessions, the half-and-half Suns get 93.8, and the small-ball Warriors a staggering 100.8.
Because Paul doesn’t get as many possessions to generate his stats as he would on some other teams, his statistics aren’t as inflated as they would be for, say, Steve Nash, who is neither scoring nor passing as much now that he is not playing the fast tempo that he is used to.
So Paul’s numbers are even more remarkable; he is even more involved in offense and defense than one would first believe.
Michael
December 27, 2008
Thanks for those links professor Berri. Based on the Calculating wins produced page it looks like it will take a while for me to learn this as it seems very complex to me, but Im sure I will get there!
Vince I didnt realise the Hornets played at such a slow pace compared to the spurs and heat! I think it is really interesting watching Chris Paul play right now knowing that he has a chance productivity-wise to be one of the greatest players of all time!
That’s one of the best things about this website and Professor Berri’s work, is that it gives you the knowledge to make distinctions like that with a lot more confidence. I definitely enjoy the game more since I started visiting this site.
Cheers.
Rob O'Malley
December 27, 2008
I know you’ve discussed your opinion on John Hollinger’s PER enough times to be clear.
What I was wondering if you could take both formulas (WP and PER) and present them the same way. Like try to tie PER to wins and see how well it correlates. Then you could look at it and go bottom line, there it is, it doesn’t have the positive correlation WP has.
I don’t know if this is possible, but I think it would be really interesting.
On the teams front, please do a post on my Washington Wizards. Please find something hopeful.
Vince G.
December 27, 2008
Just wait, Mike, it gets better.
Even San Antonio (90.8) and Utah (94.1), two teams long known for half-court offenses, are playing at faster tempi than the Hornets.
If anything, one of the more underrated aspects of Paul’s steals streak was that Paul’s defense generated an average of 2 to 3 extra possessions per game for his team. Without his steals ability, the Hornets would likely be playing even slower than they are now.
On a side note, the biggest reason why Chauncey Billups has helped Denver climb to a higher mark than 8th in the West is two-sided:
(1) Billups provides fewer wasted possessions for the Nuggets than Allen Iverson did, improving offensive effiency.
(2) His defense as a big, physical point guard helps Denver’s defensive efficiency. Granted, the Nuggets are still not at Boston’s level, but they aren’t where they were with Iverson.
In sum, your point guard, like any other member of your team, can be very important to how well your team executes at both ends.
dustin
December 27, 2008
Michael,
I have a wp48 of .452 for CP3, with 9.21 wins produced.
Jordan
December 27, 2008
dustin,
I got the exact same numbers. Glad to see I’m doing it right!
Michael
December 28, 2008
Hi guys
I re-did my Chris Paul numbers and I got the same as you 0.452WP48 and 9.20 wins produced so far.
I then did Tyson Chandler & Lebron James, both of which suprised me.
For Tyson Chandler I knew he wasnt as good as last year but I got a WP48 of 0.111 with only 1.52 wins produced so far? Seems a little low…
As for Lebron James, if my calculations here are right then he is having an incredible year even by his standards. I got a WP48 of 0.581!!! with 12.7 wins produced after 29 games!!
What do you think, am I doing this right? After I redid CP3 it matched what you guys said, but I am unsure about these two and I don’t want to do more players if I am doing it wrong!
Thanks
dustin
December 28, 2008
Michael, I think you may have miscalculated somewhere for LBJ. LBJ is having a fantastic season, but I have him at .428 wp48, and 9.33 wins produced. These number were calculated with the assumption he spends all his time at small forward.
If you are tired of calculating by hand michael, I have created some greasemonkey scripts that work with espn.
greasemonkey info:
https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/748
scripts:
http://userscripts.org/users/72607
Michael
December 29, 2008
Thanks Dustin
I was thinking of setting up an Excel spreadsheet to speed things up in future.
I recalculated my numbers for lebron and I got (after now 30 games) 0.503WP48 and 11.4 wins produced, so I definately miscalculated somewhere as that figure is 1 win produced less than after 29 games!
I cant get his score down to 0.428 though so I don’t know about that.
I will keep practising!
Tball
December 29, 2008
How about Denver on Tuesday? What is the expectation for the remainder of the season with Billups and Nene filling the spots occupied by Iverson and Camby last season? Will they win the division?
Jeremy
December 29, 2008
The Rise of Rondo
Michael
December 30, 2008
Dustin,
I built my spreadsheet and now have the following numbers for Lebron 0.429 WP48 and 9.76 Wins produced so you were right. Hopefully now the excel sheets done I wont be making any more mistakes!
Thanks for the heads up.
Lee
January 7, 2009
I noticed they didn’t make he cut on teams playing, but any idea when can we expect a post on the Hornets?
Thanks.
don angelo
February 27, 2009
I think this 08-09 season Lebron James will take the MVP title. He’ s a multi talented player. He creates leadership to motivate his teamates to win their games…
And OJ Mayo of the Grizzles will take the Rookie of the Year title. He made some big moves to win their games.