Two years ago the Pistons won 59 games and advanced to the Eastern Conference finals. At the start of last year, though, Detroit sent Chauncey Billups to the Denver Nuggets for Allen Iverson. Although the Pistons claimed this was done to enhance the team’s chances in 2008-09, it was suspected the acquisition of Iverson was all about salary space.
When the 2008-09 season ended it was clear that Iverson hadn’t helped much. But the salary cap space promised hope. Such hope, though, was dashed when the Pistons took this space and invested in Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva. When those acquisitions were announced it seemed clear the Pistons would struggle in 2009-10.
Soon after the season started, the grim expectations were realized. And now after 59 games – and after the Pistons politely declined a gift wrapped victory from the Golden State Warriors — it seems like a good time to check in on the depths the new Pistons have reached.
Table One: The Detroit Pistons after 59 games in 2009-10
Table One reports both what the Pistons have done so far and what we could have expected given the performance of the veterans last year. Looking at these numbers one can see…
- the Pistons have only won 21 games this season. Had these veterans maintained what we saw last year, the Pistons would have only won 26 games. In other words, the Pistons are supposed to be bad (although not quite this bad).
- much of this small decline can be tied to declines seen in the play of Gordon and Villanueva. Had these players maintained what they did last year the Pistons would have still been below average. But with these players offering even less, the Pistons are now awful.
- it would be much worse (much worse than awful?) if Ben Wallace hadn’t signed for $1.3 million. Wallac has already produced 9.0 wins. The other Pistons have only produced 11.7 wins. In other words, without Wallace the Pistons would be only on pace to win 16 games.
- given the age of Wallace, the Pistons are in trouble going forward. After Big Ben the Pistons have only two above average players (Jonas Jerebko and Tayshaun Prince). And neither player is well above average. Given what the Pistons have committed in salaries next season, it looks like help is only going to come in the draft.
- the draft has been somewhat mixed. Rodney Stuckey is still a below average player. And passing on DeJuan Blair for DaJuan Summers is still hard to believe. But the choice of Jerebko gives Pistons fans (of which I am one) some hope.
So in two years the Pistons have gone from title contenders to lottery hopefuls. And given that so much of this team’s meager success is linked to Big Ben, the future looks bleak. Maybe, though, the draft will go well and Joe Dumars can make some trades this summer. In other words, maybe some different decisions can be made and different – and more productive – players can come to Detroit.
– DJ
The WoW Journal Comments Policy
Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.
The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score
Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:
Simple Models of Player Performance
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.
Wages of Wins Journal 
TC from Racine
March 1, 2010
long time reader, first time poster…as a Bucks fan, I never wanted CV and am glad he’s gone. The first thing that came to mind when I read about the Pistons signing both CV and Gordon was that they’d wasted their money on the former.
Charlie V, he’s one of the most frustrating players I’ve ever seen, mainly because he has a top PF’s body but doesn’t really use it, preferring his poor imitation of Dirk Nowitzki. I used to hope he became consistent someday, but to quote an old WoW post on the T-Wolves, I came to realize he’s always been consistent. Which was, and still is, the problem.
antony
March 1, 2010
Ill ask again because I never got a response. Dberri, you always mention the similarity between gamescore, PER and NBA efficiency with their high correlation. I was wondering what the correlation between PER and WP or winscore is. Thanks
Chicago Tim
March 1, 2010
Antony, you may be interested in this old post about PER, essentially arguing that does not sufficiently penalize inefficient shooting.
antony
March 1, 2010
i understand that. i understand the formulaic differences between wp and per. from a glance-at-it perspective though (looking at how players are ranked), it seems that the two are more closely related then i would have first imagined. so i am wondering what the actual correlation between the two is (as i dont know or have the means to calculating it)
bags fly free
March 1, 2010
Actually what’s funny is that without mentoring and influence of Big Ben, Jerebko wouldn’t be playing as hard and productive as hes playing right now and same goes to other players but to a lesser degree, so without Big Ben Pistons would truly be awful this season, maybe a few wins better than the Nets.
It’s been almost 2 years since they lost in game 6 to Boston in ECF and seems like Joe Dumars hasn’t made any progress since then.
dberri
March 1, 2010
Antony,
PER is a per-minute measure. So you want to know the correlation between PER and WP48. Looking at all players from 2007-08 and 2008-09, the correlation is 0.87.
brgulker
March 1, 2010
Wow, I am surprised to see Rip’s production so low. He’s actually coming of a streak of several good games scoring wise. Must be some other things happening (or not happening) that I didn’t notice.
For other WoW readers who might be Pistons fans, you might find this evaluation of Joe Dumars interesting. It was written right after the trade deadline passed: http://www.detroitbadboys.com/2010/2/22/1320329/joe-dumars-and-the-dark-side-of
Here’s the point I’ve made … Ben Wallace and Jonas Jerebko were essentially accidents. Big Ben was brought in to be a “locker room guy,” and Jonas was a 2nd rounder who was expected to be a project. Without those two guys, where are we? Worse than the Nets, probably.
Dumars has made an unbelievable mess out of this.
dberri
March 1, 2010
Without Wallace and Jerebko the Piston are a bit under eight wins. This is pretty close to the Nets.
mrparker
March 1, 2010
I’m not convinced Dumars is an idiot yet. I’m interested to see what else he does. High usage players who are capable of average offensive efficiency players are useful to a certain extent. I’m not sure about the amount of money that was paid but I’m interested to see what else he puts around those guys. After all, Maxiell has looked like he could be a High wp48 guy and hasn’t lived up to his past numbers.
Italian Stallion
March 1, 2010
IMO Joe Dumars overpaid for the combination of Villenueva and Gordon because he felt that with so many attractive cities shooting for cap space for the 2010 FA market, he could not compete to sign any of the premier players to come to “Detriot” this summer. So he used his cap space in 2009 instead. While he overpaid, I don’t think he overpaid in a devastating way (even though it looks that way right now).
I think there were two major problems with this team in 2009/2010 .
1. A load of injuries during the early part of the season while they were also trying to incorporate the new players. That inevitably made things way more difficult than they should have been.
2. He added perimeter scoring when the team actually needed inside scoring. This team is currently woefully unbalanced.
Ben Wallace is close to useless as a scorer in the paint even though he contributes a lot in other ways. He is not the solution to Detroit’s woes.
If Dumars manages to trade one of his perimeter scorers for an inside scoring presence and the team remains healthy next year, they will be a lot better. They won’t be a contender, but the situation won’t seem nearly as hopeless and dire as it looks now. I think it might be easier to trade Gordon than it seems right now, but the CV and Hamilton contracts aren’t very attractive.
khandor
March 2, 2010
The main problem in Detroit this season … at it has been since Larry Brown was last in charge of their team … has been the poor work overall of their coach.
Flip Saunders [playoffs], Michael Curry [regular season and playoffs] and now John Kuester [regular season] have each done a relatively poor job of using their personnel in a way which would have maximized their win totals.
Joe Dumars major fault, to this point, has been his inability to find a truly elite level coach who shares his same vision of the game with the capacity to take proper control of his team.
Until Joe can succeed in doing this, the Pistons will continue to spin their wheels.
Palamida
March 2, 2010
Stallion, u talk about next season. The truth of the matter is that Big Ben is a on 1 yr\1.3m deal.
There was some talk prior to him signing this deal that he’s contemplating retirement. If he does not resign with the pistons, his departure takes away a lot of production without getting significant cap space “in return”. With the bloated contracts of Prince\Rip\villanueva and Gordon, even if we assume Daye and Jerebko will get somewhat better we’re probably looking at the worst team in the east and quite possibly the league. The nets are going to draft a stud and even if they can’t get a FA off the “A list” they will probably still use that cap on a “B list” guy.
Unless the pistons get a competent win producer in the draft (one that can contribute right away) and\or we will not see a major improvement in one of the rookies – if Wallace walks, Detroit will be the worst team in the league. A job well done, Dumars.
khandor
March 3, 2010
For those who watched last night’s Pistons-Celtics game, you saw all the evidence you need to realize that Detroit actually has a good deal of solid “NBA talent” on its current roster that is simply under-acheiving this season under the direction of John Kuester.
For example …
– using Rip Hamilton as a SF is a mistake
– using Will Bynum as a back-up PG to Rodney Stuckey is a mistake … when you also have Ben Gordon and Rip Hamilton on your squad, since there are simply not enough minutes available at the OG position, exclusively, for both Rip and BG to develop their rhythm properly in a given game
– using Ben Wallace as their starting C is a mistake … as opposed to using Kwame Brown in this lead “supporting” role and then shifting BW to the role of his primary back-up
– using Austin Daye [being wasted], Jonas Jerebko [beginning to be used] and DeJuan Summers [being wasted] properly this season, should be a priority for the Pistons, as each one of these players has the capacity to develop into a front-line performer for Detroit … which is simply not happening this year under Coach Kuester
– signing offensive players like Charlie Villanueva and Ben Gordon and then NOT using them correctly by actually running specific set plays designed to get them high percentage shots on a consistent basis is a mistake … and certainly not what Joe D had in mind when he made those two roster moves this past summer
Anyone who thinks that the following list of players, used in the following way:
STARTERS
Stuckey, Hamilton, Prince, Maxiell and Brown
KEY SUBS
Gordon, Jerebko, Villanueva and Wallace
RESERVES
Daye and Summers
EXTRAS/OUTS
Atkins, Bynum [who should be traded in a package deal for a front-line multi-purpose Big] and Wilcox
doesn’t contain “enough” NBA talent to be a top 6 team in the Eastern Conference this season, and beyond, is someone without a high degree of basketball acumen.
Despite the injuries which the Pistons have faced this season, this group of players, if used properly, has more than enough NBA talent to be in the thick of the battle for the #5-8 playoff spots in the east … and, the only reason Detroit is now on the outside looking in is because of John Kuester.
e.g. re: Legitmate Contenders to Win the NBA Championship, The Pistons are No. 9 in Rebounding Differential and No. 10 in Points Allowed. The fact that they are also No. 25 in Points Scored Differential is primarily attributable to the relatively poor work of their coach, at the offensive end of the floor, based on how he has decided to use their personnel, thus far.
brgulker
March 3, 2010
IS, you’re a New York fan, right?
Would they ever be interested in Ben Gordon? Say, hypothetically, that they land Bosh and no one else this summer. Would Gordon as a #2 scorer in Coach D’s system be appealing?
Palamida,
Absolutely agree.
However, there are two interesting trade opportunities over the next 2 seasons.
First, Tay’s on an expiring deal next season … he could be useful to a team looking to contend and/or shed salary in preparation for a new CBA.
Second, Rodney Stuckey. His “market value” is undoubtedly higher than his value as a producer of wins. Unless we see some improvement next season, I’ll keep hoping for a sign and trade with Stuckey. He’ll still be perceived to be a “young player with a high ceiling” when his contract is up in Detroit.
I’d also LOVE to trade Gordon and Villanueva, but their contracts are simply awful.
khandor
March 3, 2010
It will be very interesting to see how the Pistons play these next few games without Ben Wallace. Unlike other observers in the hoops community, perhaps, I do not expect them to perform any worse without his services.
brgulker
March 3, 2010
I hope you are watching pistons vs. Knicks khandor. .. this is who the pistons are without Ben Wallace – awful.
khandor
March 4, 2010
brgulker,
IMO, you need to revise your statement above.
This is who the Pistons are without Ben Wallace in their line-up … WHEN their coach, John Kuester, chooses to:
1. Use Will Bynum [23 MP] as the primary Back-up to Rodney Stuckey [26 MP], at the PG position, instead of Ben Gordon [OG-PG, 23 MP].
2. Use Rip Hamilton [33 MP] at the SF position, from time to time, in a “going small” 5-man unit, rather than exclusively at the OG position.
3. Use Ben Gordon as the primary Back-up to Rip Hamilton, at the OG position, usually in conjunction with Will Bynum/PG, giving the Pistons one of the “smallest” and least effective guard combinations in the league when it comes to defense and rebounding.
4. Use Jason Maxiell [30 MP] as his Starting Center, rather than Kwame Brown [3 MP in garbage time] … while operating beside Stuckey, Hamilton, Prince [33 MP] and Jerebko [33 MP].
5. Use Jonas Jerebko as his Starting PF, rather than starting Jason Maxiell at that position and then bringing Charlie Villanueva [15 MP] off the bench as his primary Back-up.
6. Use Charlie Villanueva as his Back-up Center, rather than starting Kwame Brown at that position and then bringing Chris Wilcox [DNP-CD] off the bench as his primary Back-up.
7. Not use Austin Daye for more than 10 minutes, as a secondary Back-up at the OG & SF positions, in a game where he was the only member of the Pistons who generated a “positive” plus/minus number [i.e. +6], while shooting 43% from the floor, shooting 100% from the FT Line, with 3 Rebs, a positive Ast:TO and 1 St.
8. Not use DeJaun Summers [6-8, 240] for more than 3 minutes, as a secondary Back-up at the SF & PF positions, in a game where their opponent chose to start [and give copious amounts of PT to] a “going big” 5-Man Unit that looked like this:
PG, T-Mac [6-8, 223]
OG, Bill Walker [6-6, 230]
SF, Danilo Gallinari [6-10, 225]
PF, Al Harrington [6-9, 250]
C, David Lee [6-9, 250]
As I’ve said to you on prior occasions, the Pistons’ main problem this season is rooted in the poor decision-making of their head coach, John Kuester, which has consistently resulted in awful performances … similar to last night’s.
dberri
March 4, 2010
Once again Khandor provides blanket statements with no evidence.
brgulker
March 4, 2010
khandor, did you watch the game?
Anyone with even a small amount of basketball knowledge would have noticed that the Pistons defense was the problem last night. And anyone who has watched the Pistons regularly would see plainly that Ben Wallace is our best defender.
Last night, we were torched by below-average players. NY got to the basket nearly at will and scored just as easily once they got there. Ben Wallace has been mitigating that all season and would have done so again last night — to say absolutely nothing about how we were outrebounded by the Knicks (the Knicks!!).
None of your proposals above address interior defense, which was the ultimate problem last night, because none of those players are good interior defenders.
Offense was not our problem last night. We put up enough points to beat the Knicks. We just couldn’t stop them.
Further, your point earlier was that not having Ben Wallace will not negatively impact the Pistons. Thus far, you are dead wrong. And rather than simply admit that you’ve misjudged Ben Wallace and his relative importance, you go on another tirade against John Kuester for misusing his players.
Respectfully, that’s just silly.
khandor
March 4, 2010
brgulker,
Yes, I watched last night’s game.
FYI.
khandor
March 4, 2010
brgulker,
—————————————
re: None of your proposals above address interior defense, which was the ultimate problem last night, because none of those players are good interior defenders.
—————————————
The Pistons best interior defender never got off the bench last night, until the 3:40 mark of the 4th quarter.
—————————————
re: Offense was not our problem last night. We put up enough points to beat the Knicks. We just couldn’t stop them.
—————————————
Those who know how the game works can tell you with the utmost confidence that Offense, Defense & Rebounding were all problems for the Pistons in last night’s loss.
Conversely, those who do not really know how the game works will simply point to the fact that the Pistons scored 104 points last night, on 111 possessions [0.937 PPP], as some sort of supposedly tangible “evidence” that their offense was not a part of their problem in this specific game, in which they surrendered 128 points to the Knicks, on 104 possessions [1.23 PPP].
—————————————-
re: Further, your point earlier was that not having Ben Wallace will not negatively impact the Pistons. Thus far, you are dead wrong.
—————————————-
Au contraire.
To this point, at least, what I said has come to fruition.
i.e. As long as John Kuester is coaching this team, the way he has so far, whether Ben Wallace plays or not, is largely irrelevant.