Here is a surprising headline from the Detroit News:
Ex-Pistons castoff Darko Milicic has Timberwolves howling (HT: MLive Full-Court Press)
The article goes on to state the following:
The crowd chanted his name and gave him a standing ovation.
A teammate said: “You can see all of his qualities and everything he brings to the table.”
His coach said: “He obviously has tremendous potential and capabilities.”
Which NBA superstar in the making were they talking about?
Darko Milicic?
Milicic, a bust in Detroit, Memphis and New York who said in frustration he would quit the NBA after this season, has found new life with Minnesota.
He was dealt to the Timberwolves by the Knicks at the trade deadline as a throwaway. The Timberwolves, however, said they saw potential in the 7-foot-1 center.
Milicic, who spent the entire season on the Knicks bench, responded with spirited practices with the Timberwolves. He played his first game last Sunday, and won over everyone.
“It felt good to be out there,” he told the St. Paul Pioneer Press after scoring eight and grabbing eight rebounds in 19 minutes. “I didn’t expect to play that long. I got tired.”
The Timberwolves lost to the Thunder that night.
Darko played 24 minutes Tuesday, getting four points and three blocks in Minnesota’s victory at Miami.
He seems destined to play a role in the team’s final 24 games.
And don’t forget, he’s only 24.
When I saw this article I knew I had to go look at what Milicic was doing for the T-Wolves. The results – reported in Table One – might be disappointing for those howling Minnesota fans.
Table One: The Minnesota Timberwolves after 61 games in 2009-10
Milicic has only played 102 minutes for the T-wolves. So this is a small sample. And across this small sample we see a WP48 of -0.104.
Average is 0.100, so Milicic should not be generating howls. At least, not in a positive sense.
It is true that what we are seeing is somewhat surprising. Here is what Milicic has done across his career:
2008-09: 0.052 WP48, 1,034 minutes
2007-08: -0.045 WP48, 1,664 minutes
2006-07: 0.061 WP48, 1,913 minutes
2005-06: 0.049 WP48, 767 minutes
2004-05: -0.211 WP48, 254 minutes
2003-04: -0.171 WP48, 159 minutes
After Milicic departed Detroit, he was generally a below average player who tended to produce positive quantities of wins. In his brief time in Minnesota, though, he is posting numbers similar to what we saw when he was with the Pistons.
So why is Milicic being cheered? Early in his career Milicic was penalized by the high expectations that go with a player selected second in the NBA draft. Today, though, one suspects Milicic is the beneficiary of very low expectations. So although Milicic is not playing well, relative to what is expected, he looks like a star.
His lack of production does fit in with many of his teammates in Minnesota. Six of his teammates are producing in the negative range. And all but three are below average. If we look at what these veterans did the previous season we see that most veterans were below average in 2008-09. So what we see in Minnesota is not surprising.
Essentially this team is Kevin Love, Al Jefferson, Damien Wilkins, and Ramon Sessions. These players have combined to produce 20.2 wins. Had the rest of this team produced nothing this season, the T-Wolves would be on pace to win 27 games. Because the teams employ so many players in the negative range, though, Minnesota is only on pace to win 17 contests.
So obviously, Minnesota needs to replace the many negative players with some positive players. And although Milicic could be one of these positive players, at 24 years of age he probably won’t be that much help. No, the T-Wolves need quite a bit more. And until that “quite a bit more” arrives, Minnesota is going to continue to struggle.
– DJ
The WoW Journal Comments Policy
Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.
The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score
Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:
Simple Models of Player Performance
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.
Wages of Wins Journal 
SA
March 1, 2010
Dave,
Coincidentally, another big, young player who was considered a bust seems to be coming around, but is producing much better numbers than Milicic. It’s only 7 games, so it’s a very small sample size, but since getting a chance to play regularly after Antawn Jamison was traded by Washington, Andray Blatche, in 7 games, has averaged on a per game basis: 27 points, 12 rebounds. 3.4 assists, 1.6 blocks, and, on the downside, 3.4 turnovers. He hasn’t shot less than 50 percent in any of the games, and his shooting percentage looks to be around 55 percent. He’s logged 269 minutes in those games.
I don’t know what his WP 48 would be in those 7 games but it must be fairly high. He’s only 23 and came into the league out of high school and has never got regular playing time for an extended period. While you’ve pointed out NBA players are consistent from year to year, I recall you noting it is possible to see leaps forward for young players.
Presumably he needs to keep this up for at least the rest of this season and into next season before it’s considered the real deal. But interested in your thoughts on this type of progress because I recall his WP 48 was 0.021 after 40 games, in other words, not good prior to getting the regular playing time.
Palamida
March 1, 2010
A couple of years ago, Love was projected to be a great player in terms of WP but was selected only with the 5th pick of that draft. Memphis who wanted to get their hands on a “future star” elected to basically trade Love and Mike miller for O.J Mayo. Miller since has departed Minny but Love remains as the corner stone of this franchise. Following this season and pending the lottery results, it’s quite possible that Minny would “stumble on wins” yet again: If they get the first pick will they take Wall? after the Rubio and Flynn fiasco I imagine they would trade down and select 2nd or 3rd instead allowing the teams that will possess those picks to get their hands on wall in return for a slightly lower pick and other assets (players, Picks what have u). In a more likely scenario they will own a pick in the top 3-5. Either way they have a great “shot” at drafting a truly great prospect in Evan Turner or Demarcus Cousins. Imagine that… a core of Rubio at PG, Turner in one of the wings, another avg. starter at the other (whomever, a piece from the aforementioned trade, perhaps?), and Love and Big Al manning the PF\C spots..
That’s quite a lineup…. Two of those starters would be on rookie salaries…. hmmm.
Palamida
March 2, 2010
Correction: The Mike Miller trade was actually a year after that, centered around Washington’s 5th pick. Still my point remains: there are very likely scenarios in which Minny benefits from the upcoming draft by complete chance.
roughkat
March 2, 2010
As a Wolves season ticket holder, I can tell you I was cheering for him just to give him confidence. I don’t think I have any delusions that Darko will come in and instantly perform above average. I’m sure it’s hard to come in and play 20 minutes a night coming from zero. Even Rambis has said he’s left him in a little longer than he normally might just to force him to getting in shape.
Even if Darko leaves after this year, it helps to see how a big 7 footer plays with this team. His 3 blocks against Portland were an example of something a player of his size has to offer that we’ve been without. That said, I’m looking forward to his numbers improving over the remaining games.
mrparker
March 2, 2010
Dr. Berri,
I already love this site. I NEED you to start skewering Skip Bayless. Please!!! This guy makes so many definitive statements that are wrong. Please put him in his place. You did this to Simmons and look what happened. His own team needed the guy he thought was no good to return to glory. Maybe if you start skewering Bayless, the Lakers will fall apart and Cleveland will win the next 6 championships. Help us please
CAV55
March 2, 2010
First,
We wolves fans sympathize and relate to Darko. We cheer for him becuase we want him to do well, we want to see him come to fruition. In some ways he epitomizes our own journey as wolves fans. We want to believe he can get better because we want to believe this team can too…
Also, I second what mrparker says about Skip Bayless. That guy needs to be taken down a notch or two.
A.S.
March 2, 2010
“And across this small sample we see a WP48 of -0.104. ”
Of course, the guy he was traded for – Brian Cardinal – had a WP48 of -.139. So in one sense, T-Wolves fans should be happy: they improved in this trade! Moreover, the other option at backup Center, I guess, is Ryan Hollins, who has a WP48 of -.167. So to the extent that Darko takes minutes away from Hollins, the T-Wolves will be even better!
leon
March 2, 2010
Rational expectations.
Is there mileage in extending this idea?
In this example we have Darko, who at first was a good player (pre-draft), then he was a very bad player, then he improved a bit, and then regressed again. How can you predict which player will turn up?
An example on the opposite end perhaps, AI, he was produced wins very consistently over time.
So is it the case that more consistent players find themselves with either more playing time, or a greater salary than would be expected for their production level?
Italian Stallion
March 2, 2010
Leon,
I find it somewhat interesting that a player like Darko (a Center) would be somewhat inconsistent unless of course it was related to sample size or other “one time” factors.
I know D Berri has stated that players tend to be relatively consistent from year to year other than occasional bursts of improvement from very young players and declines from older players.
However, I’ve been wondering whether players that play certain positions tend to be more consistent than others.
I have no data, but my intuitive guess would be that Cs and PFs tend to be even more consistent than PGs and SGs because of the types of shots they take. Lower probability skills (like shooting a lot of 3 pointers) should tend to produce more volatile results and that skill tends to primarily be located among guards, not Cs.
Tom Mandel
March 3, 2010
Look forward to what Dave comes up with re: Andray Blatche, who is certainly playing better than in the past. His FG % alone ought to push him well above average, and he’s rebounding at a high rate as well, for a 4 (good, because he’s also turning it over a little too much).
Johnny Y.
March 3, 2010
I doubt blatche sustains those averages. Hes the beneficiary of being on a team that gutted itself and is pretty much tanking the rest of the season for a better draft pick. Eventually scouting reports and such will catch up on him, and his production will suffer.
Even terrible teams have at least 1 player that looks good, otherwise those teams would be averaging like 50 ppg, with terrible stats across the board. (monta ellis also comes to mind)
Tom Mandel
March 4, 2010
Wow, I always wished I could meet someone able to predict the future — what stocks are you buying?
Ok, so much for being defensive ;> You’re probably right!
On the other hand AB is only 23 — still time for him to develop.