Once again, trade talks between the Nets and Nuggets are heating up. The Nets obviously want Carmelo Anthony. And it appears the Nets are willing to give up almost anyone to land him. But there is one name that appears to be untouchable. According to a story from Adrian Wojnarowski – offered a few days ago at Yahoo! — “center Brook Lopez is the only Nets player not involved in any of the proposals, sources said.”
So Brook Lopez is untouchable? Really?
Here is what Lopez has offered as an NBA player:
2008-09: 2,501 minutes, 5.4 Wins Produced, 0.104 WP48
2009-10: 3,027 minutes, 5.6 Wins Produced, 0.088 WP48
2009-11 (as of December 27): 1,052 minutes, -1.7 Wins Produced, -0.076 WP48
At this moment, Lopez is on pace to produce -4.6 wins. And that means he is on pace to be one of the least productive players in the NBA in 2010-11. Just to summarize… before this season Lopez was about average (and average NBA player post a WP48 — Wins Produced per 48 minutes — of 0.100). This year, Lopez is far below average.
Why is Lopez doing so little this season? When we look at his box score stats (I was going to offer a table illustrating all this, but I am lazy today), we see a player who is an inefficient scorer from the field and a poor rebounder. In addition, he is below average with respect to steals, assists, and blocked shots. He does get to the free throw line and avoids committing fouls. But the negatives far out-number the positives. And yet, he is untouchable.
Obviously the reason Lopez is considered a “keeper” is because he can score. Per game he is scoring 19.7 points. Again, this is not because he is an efficient shooter. No, Lopez is just willing to take shots. And again, given how much the NBA pays players to take shots and score, if Lopez didn’t take these shots someone else would (for example, if Anthony came he would probably take some of the shots Lopez is currently launching).
At this moment, Melo is an upgrade over the small forwards the Nets are employing (again, a table would be good here, but again, I am lazy today). No, Melo isn’t worth maximum money (even if he has improved this year). But he would help the Nets a bit on the court. If somehow the Nets could lose Lopez in the deal, that would help even more.
But because the NBA over-emphasizes points per game, Lopez can’t be dealt.
One has to remember that the issue isn’t just how the Nets perceive the value of Lopez. It is also how Anthony perceives Lopez. It has been reported that the only way Anthony will sign with the Nets is if he believes the Nets can win. If the Nets trade a player Anthony believes helps the team win – even if that isn’t true – the deal will never get done.
So at this point I am not sure if the Nets believe Lopez really is untouchable (although I suspect they do). One does suspect that Anthony won’t come if Lopez goes. So that means if this deal gets done, Lopez probably can’t help the Nets out by leaving. Nevertheless, given what Lopez is offering this year, the Nets really would be helped if this particular “keeper” could be kept by someone else.
– DJ
Wages of Wins Journal 
Daniel
December 27, 2010
Looks like Eddy Curry all over again…
Xavier Q
December 27, 2010
I’m not sure that this is an entirely fair analysis of Brook Lopez. Honestly I think he’s having to take a large share of the shots that would otherwise be taken by a third scoring option. Going strictly by FG%, I still like Brook taking those shots instead of Travis Outlaw, Stephen Graham, Jordan Farmar, Damien James, or Quinton Ross. He’s shown over two years to be about a 50% FG, 8+reb, 80% FT, 1.7 block guy who is consistently low on turnovers and fouls, and has yet to miss a game for any reason. The 30 games he’s played this year are likely abberation and once their roster is settled I suspect his numbers with substantially improve.
stephanieg
December 27, 2010
So they should trade a 22 year old center who in the past has shown the ability to at least be average for a 26 year old SF who is, as you’ve chronicled, one of the most overrated players in the NBA.
curtains
December 27, 2010
Do you believe Brook Lopez was better as a rookie, and has subsequently gotten “worse” these past 2 seasons? Or is it perhaps the context around him has changed to the point that he is the focal point of the offense, thus making him take the marginal shot (lowering his eFG%) and with the expanded usage, pulling him away from the basket more/he rebounds less frequently?
His dip in rebounding is clearly perplexing, since this season he’s grabbing about 2 fewer per 36 then his career norm. Is he playing hurt?
As a rookie (20 yr old) he was not only above-average for a rookie, but above-average, period. Even if he hasn’t been producing this year, the Nets are without a doubt correct in holding onto him, simply because talented 7 footers who in the past have been productive+are still young+no injury concerns are super rare.
Interaction
December 27, 2010
Lopez is playing with Humphries a lot more than last season. Lopez’s shortfall on defensive rebounding is more than being made up by Humphries.
Together the Nets’ PFs and Cs are beating their counterparts at total rebounding by about 1 this season, whereas last season they had a deficit of about 1.5.
For team as a whole defensive rebounding is not an issue. They are 9th best on DR%.
Much of Humphries’ superior defensive rebounding is coming out of Lopez’s opportunities and results. Lopez may not be a strong defensive rebounder for his position and they might want or need a strong defensive rebounder besides him but player interactions are part of the story.
T
December 28, 2010
Couldn’t agree with you more. If you watch the games, not only this season but his whole career, he is simply the best player on a horrible team.
Its inflating, and even the stats are inflated, they don’t even meet average levels.
The worst part is, when he is not the focal point, and the player to first touch the ball, he literally disappears. If Melo comes, sulking will be Brooks best attribute…in fact it may be already.
Jeff83
December 28, 2010
Fantastic example of why statistical analysis of basketball has never had much value. Have you ever watched a game? There is a REASON that lots of role players shoot higher percentages than the go-to guys. They have the worst defenders on them and only shoot when wide open. Unfortunately in real life tough shots have to be taken and being able to score when tightly guarded is a skill that pays big money for a reason. And defending the post pays big money. A true center who can score is a hot commodity that anyone with real knowledge of the game gets.
John Giagnorio
December 28, 2010
The Nets have had this “hot commodity” for a while now and have been terrible. Brook Lopez is good enough to stick in the league, but he’s clearly no centerpiece.
FM
December 28, 2010
Dave,
I was just wondering whether you could provide links or sources for the two studies you cite in endnote 32 in Stumbling on Wins, the first regressing shooting efficiency with shot attempts, the second claiming that there is no correlation between a player’s shooting efficiency and the shooting efficiency of his teammates. You don’t discuss in detail the methods and controls employed in those studies in the book so I was hoping to actually read them myself.
Italian Stallion
December 28, 2010
>>there is no correlation between a player’s shooting efficiency and the shooting efficiency of his teammates. <<
It might make some sense to take a look at the TS% of the role players on the Cavs now that Lebron isn't drawing double/triple teams and getting them easy shots. I haven't looked recently, but last time I did virtually every player saw a dip.
The truly great offensive players accrue some value when they draw double/triple teams by getting assists, but they don't get credit for the occasional hockey assists or the fact that they are often defended by the best defender on the team. So IMHO, they are mildly undervalued.
However, the bigger problem is that the players on the receiving end of those assists and easier shots get full credit for their scoring when they would NOT get as many assisted or easy shots without that great offensive player on the team.
I don't think there is much dispute that assisted shots tend to have a higher FG%.
IMHO, at a minimum the value of assisted scoring should be lower than the value of unassisted scoring.
Italian Stallion
December 28, 2010
>the first regressing shooting efficiency with shot attempts, the second claiming that there is no correlation between a player’s shooting efficiency<
IMO the problem here is that shooting/scoring ability is not static and the quality of shots available is dependent on the details of the team. Shot attempts vary as a player's skill set either improves or deteriorates and as quality opportunities increase or decrease.
Xavier Q
December 29, 2010
Jeff83, the role players on the Nets shoot a lower percentage than Brook Lopez. The wing players in general are horrible.
Being able to score when tightly guarded does get you paid, yes. But that shot usually does not need to be taken. It gets you paid because it gets you on highlight reels, not because it has substantial basketball value. And Brook does not defend the post that well, as far as I’ve seen. But he’s 7ft and that also gets you paid.
I’m guessing you’re new here, so here’s the cliff notes: Wins Produced is 95% accurate over 30 years of data. It accurately reflects individual players’ contributions to winning, and while it does have it’s flaws, it’s the best measure out there. It certain does a better job of evaluating talent than 90% of GM’s.
If you can tell me that you could predict every team’s end of season record 95% of the time based solely off of your team’s box scores, then why aren’t you writing a book?
Howard
December 29, 2010
Is Brook Lopez overrated? Yes, I think so. But he is not as terrible as you make it seem, and in my opinion, is worth keeping on the Nets.
Pros of Brook Lopez:
1. He can shoot. This is simply what sets Brook apart from most centers. Hard to argue that he isn’t top 5 (maybe #1) among NBA centers in the mid-range shot. He can also knock down his free throws – which is pretty useful for a guy that gets to the line as much as Brook.
2. He’s got the footwork and post-game. He isn’t as good as centers like Pau Gasol and Tim Duncan back in the day, but he is still a top-tier post player. In isolation, Brook can score on anyone (some cons about his post game below).
3. Good defense that keeps improving. With Avery Johnson coaching now, Lopez will only improve. If I remember correctly, Lopez is pretty good at avoiding foul trouble for a center.
4. He’s no Dwight Howard, but Brook is both athletic and big. He can guard quicker centers, he can hard bigger centers. He doesn’t face the problem that bigger, slower centers have (ex: Big Z couldn’t guard Amare last night). He doesn’t face the problem that smaller centers have (ex: DeJaun Blair couldn’t guard Andrew Bynum last night).
Cons:
1. He is not a 10 rebounds/gm centr. Don’t be foolish and look at his 6.5 rbs/game this season as signs of “slowing down” though. With Kris Humphries and Derrick Favors pounding the glass, his numbers will obviously go down. In his last two seasons, Lopez averages ~9 boards a game, a solid statistic for a center. He isn’t Kevin Love or Kevin garnett back in the day, but not as terrible as you think. I would argue this number will improve as he gets older.
2. Doesn’t get good positioning down low. While his post-game is solid, Lopez needs to position himself closer to the hoop to use this game. Read up on the Nets folks, the coaching staff is working on it. This problem has had Brook shooting hook shots from way out, and settling for jump shots a lot this year.
3. Cannot pass and poor court vision. I can’t help but realize from watching the Nets more closely this year, that Lopez cannot get out of a double team if his life depended on it. He is not capable of being a #1 option.
So why are his numbers so bad?
1. His rebounds are down because of the way the Nets coaching staff has been playing him. And the way Humphries and Favors pound the boards. Not because he can’t rebound 9+/game.
2. His field goal percentage is not as good as it can be because he is #1 option on the Nets. With absolutely no help. When was the last time you saw Devin Harris and Lopez run an ez, successful pick and roll? DH is a good offensive point guard but him and Lopez do not work together. DH is also a terrible passer in and to the paint. Lopez needs to play alongside a more traditional point-guard to see quality shots and increase in FG%.
So, this whole blurb is basically me being passive-aggressive. The hidden message: DON’T GET CARMELO ANTHONY. Will the Nets get better? Duh, Melo is one of the best in the game. But the Nets can do EVEN better with Chris Paul. Paul is a great passer and will allow Lopez to reach his potential. He can also create his own shots and help Lopez avoid being #1 option on the Nets. Also, TAKE KRIS HUMPHRIES OUT OF THE STARTING LINEUP. The Nets have decided to bench a 6’10” (at minimum) player who averaged a double-double (11+ boards, 15+ points) and very close to 40% 3PGF in Indiana two years ago (and many more times in his career). PLAY TROY MURPHY. Murphy knocking down shots = more room for Lopez to work down low. With Chris Paul at point (or someone that can at least pass and has better basketball IQ than Harris), Troy Murphy and Anthony Morrow (two players with extremely high 3PFG%) playing outside, and a free Lopez down-low, THEN the nets can compete. I love Avery Johnson’s mentality of defense first – the offense will come (Defense should be first, always). But with the current lineup, the offense will NOT come.
Keep Lopez. He is a great center. This is why I think statistic are over-emphasized in sports. We were at a good balance between statistics and coaching before things like sabremetrics and religious statisticians came around. Or maybe they should trade Brook, and once he gets paired with an all-star point guard or point-forward, then everyone in the NBA will see why everyone in Nets Nation (or Nets very-small-town at this point) sees so much promise in Lopez.
curtains
December 29, 2010
Wow Howard, you sound like Brook’s agent. That’s a lot of typing in defense of a negative WP48 player.
Power Overwhelming
December 29, 2010
“If you can tell me that you could predict every team’s end of season record 95% of the time based solely off of your team’s box scores”
I think you have things mixed up. Wins Produced tells us what happened in the past, but it is not 95% accurate when predicting the future because players improve/decline, change teams, change coaches, and get injured. There are other measures that do the same thing, Pythagorean W/L, for example.
Howard — as good as Troy Murphy was in the past (according to Wins Produced he was a superstar), Kris Humphries has been even better. In fact, Kris Humphries should be an MVP candidate according to Wins Produced this season. He is 5th in wp48 (.357) and 14th in overall wins produced. He should be playing more, not less — at least according to Wins Produced.
Italian Stallion
December 29, 2010
I have no idea if this means anything and I’m sure most here would argue it doesn’t, but both Wayne Winston and Basketball Value have Lopez doing extraordinarily well based on adjusted +/-.
There is obviously a lot of noise in that kind of rating. I know I see some that seem so ridiculous it calls everything into question. But in general I think there is some merit to the approach and I think it’s worthwhile to at least examine the ratings that totally conflict with boxscore stats.
Power Overwhelming
December 29, 2010
According to this table, Lopez’ wp48 in 2008-2009 was 0.143, high enough to be second best rookie:
http://www.wagesofwins.com/Rookies2009.html
I’m curious why his rookie rating seems to have changed in the last few years.
FM
December 29, 2010
IS, I completely agree that assisted scoring is overvalued and I also think that double teams on good/great players helps the rest of the team quite a bit. I think a prime example would be this year’s Heat, where by all metrics the big three have seen a general drop in production, most prominent in Lebron’s case, while several role players have seen increased production. The issue over scoring is the difficulty of assigning proper credit but especially in a metric like wins produced, I think it is important to identify the relationship between shot attempts and efficiency in order to properly balance the two and distribute credit effectively. There are several issues with relating shot efficiency and attempts, some of which you note, and that is why I am interested in the studies and what they controlled for.
Xavier Q, wins produced is not a predictor simply because you would need information such as player minutes and injuries in order to predict future performance, something you do not have. Also, wins produced has been notably ineffective in predicting performance after team/roster shifts in minutes and personnel during seasons suggesting that it may not be entirely effective in appropriating credit. I think a large part of why wins produced has Lopez ranked so low is because of his drop in rebounding but this is also largely due to the addition of a better rebounder in Kris Humphries. Though Lopez may not be as good of a rebounder as Humphries, I don’t believe his rebounding ability has significantly declined since his rookie season. This introduces the issue with valuing rebounding, mainly that one player can take away from the rebounds of his teammate and therefore lower their teammates’ “production.” Also, you mention that NJ’s role/wing players shoot worse than Lopez. Doesn’t this suggest that he should be taking more shots?
jbrett
December 29, 2010
I buy the idea that assisted scoring can be overrated, at least for the scorer; there seems to be some anecdotal evidence that playing with a great passer is good for your FG%.
Could the Nets be worse off trading Lopez for Anthony, and playing Humphries at C and Murphy at PF? I doubt it. Wouldn’t make them great, but I think would make them better.
Kent
December 29, 2010
Happy new year everyone!
Sam Cohen
December 30, 2010
FM- “Also, wins produced has been notably ineffective in predicting performance after team/roster shifts in minutes and personnel during seasons suggesting that it may not be entirely effective in appropriating credit. ”
Source? Because that is not my recollection, especially not in comparison to other metrics.
E. J.
December 30, 2010
So if Brook Lopez is the only untouchable, does that mean Kris Humphries is up for grabs? Because that would be an absolute steal for Denver if they could make it happen.
fricktho
December 30, 2010
Hey so T-Mac is officially as of today the Pistons’ best player. I want a full report on this stat. Brook Lopez is old news. Mcgrady is the next big thing.
H.A. Esquire
December 31, 2010
I’m new to posting here, but I’ve been reading these posts for a while. I have an idea that may (or may not) have been suggested before: How about combining the Wins Produced metric with +/-? The logic being that as different lineups take the floor, then a players role significantly changes. An example would be the Miami Heat, when Lebron takes the floor w/o Bosh and Wade at the end of quarters. That forces him to take a higher percentage of shots, and I believe his usage goes up during that time (although I haven’t checked this). It would be interesting to see how wp48 changes based on whom a player plays with.
Curious Guy
January 1, 2011
Wait a second, since when does prof Berri prefer smaller sample size [half of actual season] over bigger one [two full seasons]?
Even though I don’t agree with the whole untouchable concept center with cheap contract who is average and young enough to improve could be considered as such, no? Especially in trade talks involving overrated star.